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Brief Presentation onBrief Presentation on

Climate Change: Basic IssuesClimate Change: Basic Issues (Adaptation, Mitigation and Negotiation)(Adaptation, Mitigation and Negotiation)

The ECBI Regional WorkshopThe ECBI Regional WorkshopONON

CLIMATE CHANGE NEGOTIATIONS IN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ASIA CLIMATE CHANGE NEGOTIATIONS IN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ASIA

Rajendrapur, Gazipur, BangladeshRajendrapur, Gazipur, Bangladesh 7-9 AUGUST 20067-9 AUGUST 2006

Presented by Dr. A. Atiq RahmanDr. A. Atiq Rahman

Executive Director, Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS) Visiting Professor, the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy

Tufts University & Harvard University, USA

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Sources of GHGsSources of GHGs

Energy SectorEnergy Sector• Energy Industry• Manufacturing Industries• Transport• Residential Sector• Commercial• Agriculture

Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector• Crop Agriculture• Livestock and Manure Management-

Landuse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and Forestry• Conversion of Land• Consumption of Timber and Deforestation

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Is Climate Change a Reality?Is Climate Change a Reality?

Phases

• Phase I (80ies): does Climate Change occur and how much

• Phase II (90ies): what are the impacts and vulnerabilities, emission reduction (mitigation)

• Phase III (ongoing): adaptation

In Bangladesh awareness, concern and acceptance are growing

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Robust FindingsRobust Findings(from 3(from 3rdrd assessment report) assessment report)

Adverse impacts are expected to be more in tropical and sub-tropical zones and fall disproportionately upon developing countries and poor persons within those countries

Adaptation

Has the potential t reduce adverse impacts of climate change and can often produce immediate ancillary benefit, but will not prevent all damage

Can complement mitigation in a cost-effective strategy to reduce climate change risks

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Most Vulnerable Sectors andMost Vulnerable Sectors andAdaptation OptionsAdaptation Options

Vulnerable Sectors

Coastal zone resources

Freshwater resources

Agriculture

Human health

Ecosystem and Biodiversity

Area of Adaptation

Physical

Institutional

Social

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Responding to Climate Change:

The Basic Concepts: Politics & Negotiations

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UNFCCC: The Climate Convention

Two Objectives: Stabilize Greenhouse Gas (GHG) concentration in the

atmosphere from anthropogenic intervention Sustainable Development

Food Security Ecosystem vulnerability

Key Issues are: Rate of Change Equity Financial Mechanism North-South Debate Historical Responsibility versus Liability

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Approaches to solutions and actions

Mitigation Kyoto Protocol (the first limited action) Kyoto mechanisms (CDM, JI, Emissions

Trading)

Adaptation First potential for funding NAPA (National Action Plan for Adaption)

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Southern Perspectives Is there a “South”? What is a Southern Perspective? There are many, in

fact… G77+China

NICs (potentially large emitters): China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa

High per capita emitters: South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia

OPEC AOSIS: Threatened and extremely vulnerable LDCs: Poorer and Vulnerable

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Developing Countries

Development Priority Climate Sensitive Development Decarbonization of Production/Consumption

Processes Institutional Development & Capacity Building

Agenda Setting Research Negotiations Local and (or versus?) Global Good

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Evolution and Engagement of the South INC (1-11) Rio Declaration → UNFCCC Berlin Mandate (COP-1) Kyoto Protocol and Mechanisms Marrakech Accord: Adaptation Beyond Kyoto

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North-South Dialogue

1. Principle of “Common but Differentiated Responsibility”2. Those who committed MUST ACT

• Early Beginning• Inadequate• No-hurt syndrome

3. KP was an Intra-North Dialogue First Commitment Period

4. Committed Emitters vs. Emerging Emitters5. Kyoto Mechanisms:

• Real GHG Reduction• Not Transfer of Carbon

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Climate Convention Signed: But Whose Climate?

Kyoto Protocol agreed: Who reduces?

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Ethical Basis for EquityTwo Concepts:

1. All human beings are equal (UN)2. All people must have equal rights to global

commons including the atmosphere and oceans (GFEP Declaration, UNCED)

Per capita entitlement concept Subsistence vs. non-subsistence GHG

(greenhouse gas) emissions (CH4, CO2) Cooking vs. Car mileage Right to Sustainable Development vs.

Responsibility to Sustainable Development At what rate is mass death is genocide?! Slavery, poverty convention!

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Issues and Concerns

Responsibility for Climate Change and Role of North Is it new for Environmental Colonialism? Capacity Building” Who will pay? Role of Government Is it an Unfair Trade: Climate Change is a new

dimension Small Countries: Low Polluters – can they benefit

from Climate Change

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Issues and Concerns Per capita allocation Future:

1990 Baseline Per capita Annex 1 emissions when reached –

graduate Is it compatible with global reduction need

Ecological Integrity Uncertainties

In Science (IPCC) Costing: of Actions, Non-Actions Beyond Kyoto (Second [+] Commitment Period[s])

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Northern and Southern views

Northern view: the South must participate Southern view:

The North is the cause of climate change (in terms of historical emissions)

The North is not doing enough Kyoto is in trouble

US: abandoned its commitments EU: Slow to react First inadequate small steps Science (IPCC) requires rapid reduction

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Country case studies of the South

Bangladesh: Most Vulnerable Displacement Ecosystem Threatened Threatening Development Food Security Doing a lot CDM and Adaptation (NAPA)

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Country case studies of the South

Maldives Threatened Can do very little Sovereignty in question

Nepal Elevated rate of snow melt Glacial Loss Ecosystem threatened Social Instability

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Typology of Natural Disaster Likely Impact of Climate Change Floods and inundations Saline Intrusion Cyclones, Typhoons, Storm Surges, Tornadoes, Hurricanes Droughts Pests/Locusts Disease: Outbreaks and Vectors Forest Fires Landslides Heat Waves/Cold Waves, Temperature Extremes Sea Level Rise Riverbank Erosion

Increase

None

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Key Stressors Temperature Increase SLR (Sea Level Rise) Population Shift Carbon Concentration Increase

Sectors Extent of Events

Intensity Frequency

Desertification/Drought Salt Water/Flood/Inundation Ecosystem: Extent Food Security - Poverty

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A preliminary vulnerability assessment for agriculture

Identification of the crops, geographical regions, and rural populations most likely to be vulnerable

Description of the vulnerable crops, regions and groups as well as the reasons for their vulnerability

Analysis of analogous regions (e.g., warmer regions of the country) under current climate regimes to help identify implications for future response to climate change

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Challenges ahead

1. Universal participation

2. Low emission/high development paradigm

3. Capacity in the South

4. Science to Action

5. Technology funding

6. Government/Private Sector/NGOs collaboration

7. Kyoto without ratification

8. Building on good practices

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The Realities of Climate Change Emerging Scientific Consensus on Climate Change

(IPCC) Ground Realities:

Increasing Awareness of communities Increasing Extreme Weather Events Experiences of Coping with Climate Variability How to respond to Climate Change

All developments assumed Climate Change Agriculture Infrastructure Ecosystem Management Precipitation

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Responses

Global: IPCC Understanding Science and Reducing Uncertainty

Climate Convention Inter-government Block Negotiations Lowest Common Denominator Big on talks, low on action

Kyoto Protocol: First Small Step Bogged Down South is compromising

lowering bar Global risk increasing

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Responses

National: Create Awareness Some Actions, More Reports Institutionalization Some Integration in Sectors

Private Sector: Early Initiations of CDM Delay dampen enthusiasms New Climate Change Marketing Some feel threatened others look for

opportunities

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NGOs:Greater Research

Raising Concerns and Awareness

Equity Issues Highlighted

Lower Thrust on Commitment, more on

Technical Options

Increasingly reaching from Environment to

Development

Appreciation of Mitigation and adaptation

Southern NGOs, mostly left unsupported

Responses

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Disaster Management

Impact-Adaptation Relationship

=

X X

Intensity of Event

BaselineConditions

AdaptiveCapacity

ImpactEvent