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Meeting The Challenges of NatureThe Impact of Space Weather on Marine Positioning Services

Solar Cycle Progression and the Maturing of GPS

April 2007Richard Barker, Fugro Chance Inc.

Our Mission is to Provide Superior Survey Solutions Safely

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Resources

DGPS Reference Stations

200 Land Drill-Rigs

15 Laboratories75 CPT Units

40 Airplanes

9800 Staff

40 Vessels 80 Jack-Up Platforms

275 Offices 60 Countries

5 AUVs

100

100 ROVs

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Business Lines

Marine Construction Support

Submarine CableSurveysLIDAR Surveys

Positioning

Oceanography

Geophysical Surveys

ROV / DivingGIS/Data

Management

Seismic Data Collection

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Airborne LIDAR Survey

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Transmission Line SagTransmission Line Sag Transmission Line Structure Transmission Line Structure

Transmission Line LIDAR Survey

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Fugro Chance Provides Precise Positioning Services for Various Types of Vessels, Marine Operations and Construction Support

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RTK- GPS Gunfloat and Streamer TrackingFor Deep Seismic Oil Exploration

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Semi Submersible Rig, Tugs and Anchor Handling Vessels (AHV)

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Traditional Anchor

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Suction Pile

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GOM Pipeline Infrastructure

23,000 Pipelines in Gulf of Mexico Region16,000 in Federal Waters

7,000 in State Waters

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3D Representation of GOM InfrastructureSemi Submersible Modular Drilling Unit – Tension Leg Platform

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Anchor Operations

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World's Leading Supplier of High Performance DGPS Satellite DGPS Services Since 1987

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Worldwide GPS Reference Network With Signals On 14 Transponders

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Geomagnetic Equator

Graphics: NorthWest Research Associates Inc. & NASA/JPL

Total Electron Content

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GPS Constellation Buildup

Number of GPS Satellites

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Year

Block IIR- M

Block IIR

Block IIA

Block II

Block I

Cycle 23 PeakIOC

Cycle 22 Peak

S/A Off

S/A On

24 hr GPS

FOC

1st GPS Rcvr

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GPS and the Solar Cycle

86 - Starfix

87 - DGPS

91 - S/A on

93 - Only DGPS

94 - A/S on

93 - RTK

97 - VBS

98 - GE Problems

99 - DF Solutions

00 - S/A Off

02 - High Accuracy

03 - Halloween X17

03 - WAAS IOC

93 - GPS IOC (24 sats)

95 - GPS FOC 06-X6 RBE

01 - March Xx

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Cycle 23 Solar Flux

97-VBS services

98-GE Problems

99-DF Solutions

00-S/A off

03-WAAS IOC

03- Halloween X17

06-X6 RBE

RTK Problems

02 High Accuracy

01 March Xx

Oct 02 – 10 Days

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Satellite Status / Space Weather Updates

The Satellite Status / Space Weather Update provides time sensitive information on satellite status and space weather forecasts that may cause operational disruptions.

Subscribed Client Organizations include (partial listing):

Allseas PGSBP Spectra PrecisionCGG SeadrillCase New Holland StennaDiamond Offshore Shell Exxon/Mobile TransoceanFairfield Trimble Navigation Global USACEOceaneering USDA

Also included are individual farmers, farm co-op’s (for precision Ag), construction companies, municipalities, construction and agricultural sales and service organizations.

Over 400 individuals are subscribed to Satellite Status / Space Weather Update.

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• What will Solar Cycle 24 look like (Maximum f10.7 sfu)

• Scintillation Predictions (severe ionospheric signal scattering)

– Problem Regions– Likelihood of Expected Daily Repeatability

• Improved CME Estimates– Velocity, ETA– Geomagnetic Storm Level Estimates

• Radio Burst (Nowcasting)

– Frequency Spectrum Alerts– Estimated Duration– Expected Region of Impact

• Advice on Index Interactions and Expected Effects– E.G., A high KP/AP index combined with a high f10.7 cm solar flux increases GPS

ranging errors and reduces positioning accuracy. Where are the regions of maximum sensitivity and points of exponential increase?

Space Weather Product / Service Needs

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Lack of Effective Forecasting Leads to Unpleasant Results

Peter Paul Rubens “Death of Achilles”

Better To Delay Than To Do It Again …Or Worse, To Break Something Expensive