wrap workshop on fire, carbon, & dust emissions of carbon from fire
DESCRIPTION
WRAP Workshop on Fire, Carbon, & Dust Emissions of Carbon from Fire. Fire Emissions Joint Forum Presented by – Dave Randall, Air Sciences Inc. May 23, 2006 Sacramento, CA. From Acres to Extinction. FIRE INVENTORY USE July 1996 WF (prototype)> Establish EI method - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
WRAP Workshop on Fire, Carbon, & DustWRAP Workshop on Fire, Carbon, & Dust
Emissions of Carbon from FireEmissions of Carbon from Fire
Fire Emissions Joint Forum
Presented by – Dave Randall, Air Sciences Inc. May 23, 2006 Sacramento, CA
From Acres to ExtinctionFrom Acres to ExtinctionField/databases Air Sciences (EXCEL, ArcView, database) Air Sciences (EXCEL, ArcView, database, text fi les)
Activity Data QC & Gap-Filling EI Data Processing
Date Daily-ize multi day events Calculate daily emissionsAcres/day Fire perimeter/BAER info Natural/Anthropogenic assignmentLocation (lat/lon) Location info Plume characteristicsLoading/Consumption GIS application (e.g., NFDRS, FCCS) Hourly profiles
Output formats (e.g., SMOKE IDA, NIF)
Post EI File Delivery (Regional Modeling Center)
3-D emissions gridsPollutant speciation (e.g., PM2.5 --> EC & OC, VOC -->parafins, olefins)DispersionAtmospheric chemistryAir quality impact
How Fire EI’s Have Been UsedHow Fire EI’s Have Been Used
FIRE INVENTORY USE• July 1996 WF (prototype) >Establish EI method• 1996 WF >Model performance• Initial projection EI’s >Model performance;
– 2018: Rx, Ag initial attribution analysis– Typical: WF
• 2002 QC’d EI >Model performance;– WF, Rx, Ag, NFR attribution;
sensitivity; NEI• Planning EIs – all types>Attribution;
– Baseline (2000-2004) SIP Preparation– Projection (2018)
STATUS complete complete complete
complete
complete in progress
(07/06)
EC Emission SummaryEC Emission SummaryWRAP-wide (w/o AK) All Fire TypesWRAP-wide (w/o AK) All Fire Types
(max scale 80,000 tons)
Elemental Carbon Emissions for Actual, Baseline, and Base-case Scenarios
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Tons
Ele
men
tal C
arbo
n (E
C)
Prescribed EC 4,531 4,594 14,152
WFU EC 864 8,834 23,914
Wildfire EC 42,771 32,312 24,391
Agricultural EC 6,747 6,750 5,464
NF Rangeland EC 4,039 4,039 4,821
Actual (2002) Baseline (2000-2004) Base-case (2018)
OC Emission SummaryOC Emission SummaryWRAP-wide (w/o AK) All Fire TypesWRAP-wide (w/o AK) All Fire Types
Organic Carbon Emissions for Actual, Baseline, and Base-case Scenarios
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Tons
Org
anic
Car
bon
(OC
)
Prescribed OC 34,718 35,172 120,510
WFU OC 6,685 68,316 184,938
Wildfire OC 330,761 249,882 188,626
Agricultural OC 14,329 14,335 12,167
NF Rangeland OC 6,948 6,948 8,334
Actual (2002) Baseline (2000-2004) Base-case (2018)
(max scale 600,000 tons) 7x EC
Total WRAP Emissions (without Alaska) of PM2.5, Elemetal Carbon (EC), Organic Carbon (OC), and VOC
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
To
ns
of
Em
iss
ion
s
PM2.5 822,350 656,759 739,574
EC 58,952 56,529 72,744
OC 393,442 374,651 514,576
VOC 480,978 459,065 624,566
Actual (2002) Baseline (2000-2004) Base-case (2018)
Baseline Emission Inventory: Natural vs. Anthropogenic PM2.5 Emissions
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
To
ns
PM
2.5
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Ac
res
Anth PM2.5 172 1,090 13,157 1,220 11,842 4,900 2,155 923 98 14,713 136 697 15,250 2,298
Natural PM2.5 478,057 62,620 119,806 39,740 62,212 50,072 2,927 21,329 29,226 105,890 6,119 34,103 23,301 30,936
Acres 1,124,577 591,509 1,358,937 249,834 955,301 735,393 310,262 341,054 299,837 919,592 289,711 276,463 858,071 236,491
AK AZ CA CO ID MT ND NM NV OR SD UT WA WY
SpatialDistributionBaseline WF and RX
Temporal Distribution:
Baseline Wildfire EI
Tons of PM2.50 - 1
1 - 10
10 - 100
100 - 1,000
Baseline Emission Inventory: Wildfire Tons PM2.5 Emissions By Month 1,000 - 5,000
(number of fire days) 5,000 - 10,000
10,000 +
January February March April May June July August September October November December Total
AK 0 (0) 0 (0) 0 (14) 75 (0) 46,271 (46) 44,296 (81) 93,091 (802) 265,841 (1002) 2,765 (301) 0 (46) 0 (0) 0 (0) 452,340
CA 28 (3) 224 (11) 830 (16) 543 (29) 1,025 (33) 29,135 (177) 27,803 (225) 29,548 (157) 18,873 (134) 748 (40) 3,871 (70) 120 (20) 112,748
OR 0 (0) 0 (0) 0 (0) 0 (89) 7 (56) 2 (63) 57,232 (287) 41,541 (200) 208 (108) 0 (22) 5 (38) 0 (5) 98,994
ID 0 (0) 0 (10) 14 (15) 0 (40) 314 (35) 774 (93) 8,623 (472) 30,686 (101) 15,995 (40) 651 (10) 0 (6) 0 (0) 57,057
MT 0 (0) 0 (0) 0 (0) 486 (6) 478 (79) 1,488 (161) 4,968 (351) 6,692 (151) 29,930 (8) 61 (0) 473 (0) 39 (0) 44,614
AZ 0 (0) 196 (0) 15 (5) 21 (13) 7,570 (5) 30,714 (131) 322 (139) 28 (88) 78 (56) 224 (1) 0 (0) 325 (0) 39,492
CO 0 (1) 0 (0) 0 (4) 309 (2) 5,653 (6) 11,332 (32) 3,011 (93) 13,736 (94) 18 (94) 0 (29) 0 (6) 0 (1) 34,058
UT 0 (1) 0 (1) 5 (2) 32 (0) 21 (0) 10,940 (55) 15,859 (164) 2,418 (48) 1,232 (18) 0 (17) 0 (0) 0 (0) 30,508
NV 0 (5) 6 (2) 36 (20) 159 (25) 166 (33) 2,496 (91) 23,703 (26) 785 (17) 539 (9) 319 (0) 2 (0) 0 (0) 28,210
WY 2 (5) 2 (5) 3 (1) 0 (28) 0 (15) 2,542 (40) 20,775 (65) 1,909 (45) 1,308 (11) 1,372 (2) 0 (2) 0 (1) 27,914
WA 5 (0) 0 (4) 1 (6) 5 (9) 181 (51) 380 (36) 4,771 (28) 2,613 (5) 12,408 (4) 1,499 (8) 224 (1) 20 (14) 22,107
NM 5 (0) 6 (0) 96 (0) 2,381 (0) 1,857 (2) 7,749 (1) 5,410 (106) 303 (38) 79 (10) 0 (0) 0 (4) 0 (0) 17,887
SD 11 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 566 (9) 44 (26) 720 (31) 1,119 (43) 1,075 (35) 16 (4) 2 (0) 1 (0) 6 (0) 3,561
ND 0 (1) 0 (0) 0 (0) 71 (18) 76 (22) 21 (3) 1,832 (22) 2 (2) 0 (1) 0 (0) 0 (0) 0 (0) 2,001
Total 51 (16) 435 (33) 1,000 (83) 4,649 (268) 63,662 (409) 142,588 (995) 268,516 (2823) 397,177 (1983) 83,450 (798) 4,876(175) 4,575(127) 511 (41) 971,490
Temporal Distribution:
Baseline Rx Fire EI
Tons of PM2.50 - 1
1 - 10
10 - 100
100 - 1,000
Baseline Emission Inventory: Prescribed Fire Tons PM2.5 Emissions By Month 1,000 - 5,000
(number of fire days) 5,000 - 10,000
10,000 +
January February March April May June July August September October November December Total
AZ 254 (54) 1,181 (111) 1,136 (145) 150 (333) 0 (274) 0 (112) 12 (1) 21 (0) 1,730 (44) 8,925 (331) 6,530 (2215) 278 (1028) 20,218
OR 56(131) 349 (156) 379 (179) 1,984 (455) 3,028 (373) 540 (108) 0 (18) 0 (9) 601 (76) 1,697 (723) 3,452 (900) 1,668 (438) 13,753
ID 0 (0) 0 (2) 2 (32) 471 (141) 1,793 (321) 683 (104) 328 (2) 4 (9) 2,097 (228) 2,238 (368) 1,924 (1586) 687 (0) 10,227
CA 462(117) 245 (84) 467 (64) 867 (9) 557 (0) 176 (0) 112 (25) 6 (43) 2,251 (147) 1,312 (425) 768 (367) 348 (131) 7,570
MT 0 (57) 5 (94) 33 (152) 237 (136) 1,004 (111) 314 (48) 4 (76) 41 (62) 502 (120) 768 (177) 4,158 (87) 0 (48) 7,067
WY 41 (0) 8 (0) 19 (1) 551 (49) 32 (135) 59 (63) 178 (51) 12 (1) 344 (134) 1,980 (199) 177 (430) 29 (37) 3,430
NM 14 (9) 32 (7) 34 (16) 103 (54) 0 (36) 396 (178) 22 (181) 4 (2) 1,850 (30) 302 (5) 27 (17) 12 (8) 2,796
WA 26 (14) 17 (2) 23 (5) 188 (50) 658 (7) 15 (16) 2 (49) 1 (16) 16 (84) 871 (219) 602 (56) 139 (8) 2,558
UT 15 (1) 29 (1) 75 (6) 575 (30) 14 (69) 250 (60) 256 (62) 79 (62) 803 (44) 158 (19) 15 (1) 221 (0) 2,490
CO 31 (38) 24 (22) 32 (50) 239 (65) 1 (2) 0 (1) 0 (1) 0 (0) 0 (0) 271 (103) 109 (64) 0 (0) 707
ND 0 (19) 0 (29) 0 (14) 119 (4) 305 (0) 28 (100) 0 (10) 0 (6) 35 (56) 63 (20) 6 (8) 0 (3) 556
NV 11 (0) 1 (2) 222 (0) 1 (0) 31 (5) 0 (21) 6 (62) 0 (66) 24 (60) 51 (1) 36 (0) 16 (0) 398
SD 3 (0) 2 (0) 17 (0) 88 (28) 68 (73) 31 (6) 32 (0) 32 (0) 22 (15) 10 (19) 28 (6) 0 (0) 333
AK 0 (2) 1 (1) 0 (31) 0 (2) 6 (16) 18 (0) 50 (3) 56 (0) 49 (11) 0 (21) 0 (9) 0 (2) 180
Total 912(442) 1,895 (511) 2,441 (695) 5,573(1356) 7,495 (1422) 2,508 (817) 1,003 (541) 257 (276) 10,323 (1049) 18,645 (2630) 17,832 (5746) 3,397 (1703) 72,281
Uncertainty and Accuracy in Fire Uncertainty and Accuracy in Fire EmissionsEmissions
Five things you should know about the WRAP’s Fire EIs:
1. Planning EIs (Ph III/IV) are nominal (possible).2. Greatest uncertainty is in fuel loading and
consumption (+/- 50% or more).3. Emission factor information is fair (very sparse for
pollutant speciation).4. Plume characteristics – we use anecdotal information
to generalize (getting better).5. Even small fires in the EI, proximate to a Class I area,
appear to show up as modeled visibility impacts.
Baseline Annual PM2.5 Emissions by County
Case Study Area: Sawtooth Wilderness
Baseline Control Case Annual PM2.5 Emissions by County
Case Study Area: Sawtooth Wilderness
Reference InformationReference Information
• Contact Information:Dave RandallAir Sciences Inc.1301 Washington Ave, Suite 200Golden CO 80401w\303.988.2960 x221e\[email protected]
• URLs for fire EIs and documentationWRAP/Fire Emissions Joint Forum main page:
http://www.wrapair.org/forums/fejf/index.htmlPhase II Historical EIs:
http://www.wrapair.org/forums/fejf/tasks/FEJFtask7PhaseII.htmlPhase III/IV Planning EIs:
http://www.wrapair.org/forums/fejf/tasks/FEJFtask7Phase3-4.html