world energy outlook 2012 · 15/11/2012 · world energy outlook 2012 dr. fatih birol iea chief...
TRANSCRIPT
© OECD/IEA 2012
World Energy Outlook 2012Dr. Fatih BIROL
IEA Chief EconomistDen Haag, 15 November 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012
The context
n Foundations of global energy system shiftingØ Resurgence in oil & gas production in some countriesØ Retreat from nuclear in some othersØ Signs of increasing policy focus on energy efficiency
n All-time high oil prices acting as brake on global economyØ Divergence in natural gas prices affecting Europe (with prices
5-times US levels) and Asia (8-times)
n Symptoms of an unsustainable energy system persistØ Fossil fuel subsidies up almost 30% to $523 billion in 2011, led by MENAØ CO2 emissions at record high, while renewables industry under strainØ Despite new international efforts, 1.3 billion people still lack electricityØ Water increasingly crucial for assessing the viability of energy projects
© OECD/IEA 2012
Emerging economies steer energy markets
Share of global energy demand
Global energy demand rises by over one-third in the period to 2035,underpinned by rising living standards in China, India & the Middle East
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1975 2010 2035
Middle East
India
China
OECD
Non-OECDRest of non-OECD6 030 Mtoe 12 380 Mtoe 16 730 Mtoe
© OECD/IEA 2012
A United States oil & gas transformation
US oil and gas production
The surge in unconventional oil & gas production has implicationswell beyond the United States
Unconventional gas
Conventional gas
Unconventional oil
Conventional oil
mboe/d
5
10
15
20
25
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
© OECD/IEA 2012
Middle East oil to Asia: a new silk road
Middle East oil export by destination
By 2035, almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports go to Asia; North America’semergence as a net exporter accelerates the eastward shift in trade
7
United StatesJapan & Korea EuropeChina India
mb/d 2000
2011
2035
1
2
3
4
5
6
© OECD/IEA 2012
Iraq oil poised for a major expansion
Iraq oil production
Iraq accounts for 45% of the growth in global production to 2035;by the 2030s it becomes the second-largest global oil exporter, overtaking Russia
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2012 2020 2035
mb/d NorthCentreSouth
Iraq oil exports
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2012 2020 2035
mb/d OtherAsia
© OECD/IEA 2012
Natural gas: towards a globalised market
Major global gas trade flows, 2010
Rising supplies of unconventional gas & LNG help to diversify trade flows,putting pressure on conventional gas suppliers & oil-linked pricing mechanisms
Major global gas trade flows, 2035
© OECD/IEA 2012
Different trends in oil & gasimport dependency
While dependence on imported oil & gas rises in many countries,
Net oil & gas import dependency in selected countries
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Oil imports
Gas Imports
United States
ChinaIndia
European Union
Japan20102035
20%Gas Exports
the United States swims against the tide
© OECD/IEA 2012
3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000TWh
2 000
A power shift to emerging economies
The need for electricity in emerging economies drives a 70% increase in worldwidedemand, with renewables accounting for half of new global capacity
Change in power generation, 2010-2035
-1 000 0 1 000
Japan
European Union
United States
China
TWh
Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables
India
© OECD/IEA 2012
The multiple benefits of renewablescome at a cost
Renewable subsidies were $88 billion in 2011; over half the subsidies required to2035 has been committed to existing projects or is needed to meet 2020 targets
Global renewable energy subsidies of $4.8 trillion, 2011-2035
Electricity$3.6 trillion
Biofuels$1.2 trillion
Committed toexisting projects
$1.0 trillion
Required tomeet targets2012-2020$1.6 trillion
© OECD/IEA 2012
Wide variations in the price of power
Electricity prices are set to increase with the highest prices persisting in theEuropean Union & Japan, well above those in China & the United States
Average household electricity prices, 2035
5
10
15
20
25
China United States European Union Japan
cents/kWh
2011Non-OECDaverage
2011OECD average
© OECD/IEA 2012
Energy efficiency: a huge opportunitygoing unrealised
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Industry Transport Powergeneration
Buildings
Unrealised energyefficiency potential
Realised energyefficiency potential
Two-thirds of the economic potential to improve energy efficiencyremains untapped in the period to 2035
Energy efficiency potential used by sector in the New Policies Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2012
The Efficient World Scenario:a blueprint for an efficient world
Economically viable efficiency measures can halve energy demand growth to 2035;
Total primary energy demand
12 000
13 000
14 000
15 000
16 000
17 000
18 000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Mtoe
New PoliciesScenario
EfficientWorld Scenario
Reduction in 2035
Coal 1 350 Mtce
Oil 12.7 mb/d
Gas 680 bcm
Others 250 Mtoe
oil prices are $15 per barrel lower by 2035 due to oil demand savings
© OECD/IEA 2012
Energy efficiency can help driveeconomic prosperity
Cumulative investments in energy efficiency of $12 trillion are more than offsetby fuel savings & trigger economic growth of a cumulative $18 trillion
GDP in Efficient World Scenario versus New Policies Scenario, 2035
0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
Japan & Korea OECD Europe United States China India
© OECD/IEA 2012
Power generation
Industry
Transport
Other
Room to manoeuvre
The Efficient World Scenariodelays carbon lock-in
Energy efficiency can delay “lock-in” of CO2 emissions permitted under a 2 °Ctrajectory – which is set to happen in 2017 – until 2022, buying five extra years
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Gt
2 °C trajectory
Lock-in of existinginfrastructure
2017
Lock-in of infrastructurein New Policies Scenarioin 2017
202235
Lock-in of infrastructurein Efficient World Scenarioin 2022
© OECD/IEA 2012
Foundations of energy system shifting
n Policy makers face critical choices in reconciling energy,environmental & economic objectives
n Changing outlook for energy production & use may redefineglobal economic & geopolitical balances
n Iraq set to play a pivotal role in global oil markets
n As climate change slips off policy radar, the “lock-in” pointmoves closer & the costs of inaction rise
n The gains promised by energy efficiency are within reach & areessential to underpin a more secure & sustainable energy system