eia short-term energy and winter fuels...
TRANSCRIPT
EIA
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y an
d W
inte
rFue
lsO
utlo
okW
inte
rFue
lsO
utlo
ok
Ob
1020
12|
Whi
DC
Oct
ober
10,2
012
|W
ashi
ngto
n,D
C
ww
w.ei
a.go
vU
.S. E
nerg
y In
form
atio
n A
dmin
istra
tion
Inde
pend
ent S
tatis
tics &
Ana
lysi
s
Ove
rvie
w
•E
IA e
xpec
ts h
ighe
r ave
rage
fuel
bill
s th
is w
inte
r in
stat
es e
ast o
f th
e R
ocky
Mou
ntai
ns.
•A
retu
rn to
a n
ear-
norm
al w
inte
r is
the
mai
n dr
iver
of h
ighe
r ex
pend
iture
s.
•P
roje
cted
cha
nges
in re
side
ntia
l pric
es fr
om la
st w
inte
r are
:–
1% h
ighe
r nat
ural
gas
pric
es–
2% lo
wer
ele
ctric
ity p
rices
–2%
hig
her h
eatin
g oi
l pric
es–
4% lo
wer
pro
pane
pric
es
•Fo
reca
stav
erag
eho
useh
old
expe
nditu
res
forh
eatin
goi
luse
rs•
Fore
cast
aver
age
hous
ehol
dex
pend
iture
sfo
rhea
ting
oilu
sers
are
at th
eir h
ighe
st le
vel e
ver.
2S
hort-
Term
Ene
rgy
and
Win
ter F
uels
Out
look
Oct
ober
10,
201
2
Hea
ting
fuel
mar
ket s
hare
s var
y re
gion
ally
Num
ber o
f hom
es b
y pr
imar
y sp
ace
heat
ing
fuel
and
Cen
sus
Reg
ion,
win
ter 2
012-
13
Nor
thea
stM
idw
est
Wes
tna
tura
l gas
prop
ane
heat
ing
oil
elec
trici
ty
DC
Sou
thU
.S. t
otal
prop
ane
woo
dke
rose
ne/o
ther
/no
heat
ing
115
milli
on h
omes
3
Sou
rce:
EIA
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y O
utlo
ok, O
ctob
er 2
012
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y an
d W
inte
r Fue
ls O
utlo
okO
ctob
er 1
0, 2
012
Expe
nditu
res a
re e
xpec
ted
to in
crea
se th
is w
inte
r (O
ctob
er1
Mar
ch31
)for
allf
ossi
lfel
s(O
ctob
er1–
Mar
ch31
)for
allf
ossi
lfue
ls
Per
cent
cha
nge
in fu
el b
ills
from
last
win
ter (
fore
cast
)g
()
Fuel
bill
Bas
e ca
sefo
reca
stIf
10%
war
mer
th
an fo
reca
st
If 10
% c
olde
r th
an fo
reca
st
Hea
ting
oil
Hea
ting
oil
197
32
Nat
ural
gas
153
28
Pro
pane
*13
--
Ele
ctric
ity5
211
* Pro
pane
exp
endi
ture
s ar
e a
volu
me-
wei
ghte
d av
erag
e of
the
Nor
thea
st a
nd M
idw
est r
egio
ns.
All
othe
rs
are
U.S
. vol
ume-
wei
ghte
d av
erag
es.
Pro
pane
pric
es in
war
m a
nd c
old
case
s ar
e no
t ava
ilabl
e.
4S
hort-
Term
Ene
rgy
and
Win
ter F
uels
Out
look
Oct
ober
10,
201
2
Sou
rce:
EIA
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y O
utlo
ok, O
ctob
er 2
012
Fore
cast
fuel
pric
es a
re c
lose
to la
st w
inte
r’s a
vera
ges
35%
% c
hang
e in
fuel
pric
e
20%
25%
30%
com
pare
d w
ith la
st w
inte
r
com
pare
d w
ith 5
-yea
r ave
rage
5%10%
15%%
10%
-5%0%5%
-15%
- 10%
natu
ral g
asel
ectri
city
heat
ing
oil
prop
ane
5
Sou
rce:
EIA
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y O
utlo
ok, O
ctob
er 2
012
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y an
d W
inte
r Fue
ls O
utlo
okO
ctob
er 1
0, 2
012
The
U.S
. win
ter 2
012-
13 h
eatin
g se
ason
fore
cast
is a
bout
2%
w
arm
er th
an th
e 30
-yea
r ave
rage
, but
18%
col
der t
han
last
win
ter
U.S
. cur
rent
pop
ulat
ion-
wei
ghte
dhe
atin
g de
gree
-day
s
800
1,00
0
400
600
200 0
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
2009
-201
020
10-2
011
2011
-201
220
12-2
013
(NO
AA
fore
cast
)N
ote:
Hor
izon
tal b
ars
indi
cate
mon
thly
ave
rage
deg
ree
days
ove
r the
per
iod
1971
-200
0.y
gg
yp
Sou
rce:
EIA
cal
cula
tions
bas
ed o
n N
OA
A st
ate
hist
ory
and
fore
cast
s (A
ugus
t 15,
201
2) w
eigh
ted
by s
ame-
year
pop
ulat
ions
.
6S
hort-
Term
Ene
rgy
and
Win
ter F
uels
Out
look
Oct
ober
10,
201
2
Nat
ural
Gas
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y an
d W
inte
r Fue
ls O
utlo
okO
ctob
er 1
0, 2
012
7
Hig
her n
atur
al g
as c
onsu
mpt
ion
rais
es a
vera
ge fu
el b
ills i
n h
idh
dh
hii
the
Mid
wes
t, N
orth
east
, and
Sou
th th
is w
inte
r
Per
cent
cha
nge
from
last
win
ter (
fore
cast
)
Aver
age
Tota
l
Sha
re o
f all
U.S
. ho
useh
olds
that
use
nat
ural
ga
s as
prim
ary
spac
e
Con
sum
ptio
nAv
erag
epr
ice
Tota
lex
pend
iture
s
1-3
-226
%W
est
heat
ing
fuel
20-3
16
181
1931
%
23%
Mid
wes
t
Sou
th
174
2120
%N
orth
east
8
Sou
rce:
EIA
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y O
utlo
ok, O
ctob
er 2
012
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y an
d W
inte
r Fue
ls O
utlo
okO
ctob
er 1
0, 2
012
EIA
exp
ects
resi
dent
ial n
atur
al g
as p
rices
to c
lose
ly
follo
wla
stw
inte
r’sp
rices
follo
wla
stw
inte
rsp
rices
Ft
Hi
tD
olla
rs p
er th
ousa
nd c
ubic
feet
(mcf
)
2025W
inte
rR
esid
entia
l pric
e
Fore
cast
His
tory
1015 510
Hen
ryH
ubsp
otpr
ice
0 Jan
2008
Jan
2009
Jan
2010
Jan
2011
Jan
2012
Jan
2013
Jan
2014
Hen
ryH
ubsp
otpr
ice
9
Sou
rce:
EIA
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y O
utlo
ok, O
ctob
er 2
012
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y an
d W
inte
r Fue
ls O
utlo
okO
ctob
er 1
0, 2
012
But
, fut
ure
natu
ral g
as p
rices
rem
ain
high
ly u
ncer
tain
8H
enry
Hub
spo
t pric
e
Dol
lars
per
mill
ion
Btu
His
tory
Fore
cast
67S
TEO
pric
e fo
reca
stN
YM
EX
Hen
ry H
ub fu
ture
s pr
ice
68%
NY
ME
X c
onfid
ence
inte
rval
95%
NY
ME
Xco
nfid
ence
inte
rval
4595
%N
YM
EX
conf
iden
cein
terv
al
23 01 Jan
2011
Jan
2012
Jan
2013
10S
hort-
Term
Ene
rgy
and
Win
ter F
uels
Out
look
Oct
ober
10,
201
2
Sou
rce:
EIA
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y O
utlo
ok, O
ctob
er 2
012,
and
CM
E G
roup
The
prob
abili
ty o
f the
Janu
ary
2013
Hen
ry H
ub n
atur
al g
as
pric
e be
ing
high
er th
an $
5.00
per
MM
Btu
is a
bout
5%
pg
gp
prob
abilit
y of
exc
eeda
nce
37%
30%
40%
20%
30%
15%
5%10
%5%
0%>
$4.0
0 / M
MB
tu>
$4.5
0 / M
MB
tu>
$5.0
0 / M
MB
tu
11
Sou
rce:
EIA
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y O
utlo
ok, O
ctob
er 2
012,
and
CM
E G
roup
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y an
d W
inte
r Fue
ls O
utlo
okO
ctob
er 1
0, 2
012
EIA
exp
ects
nat
ural
gas
inve
ntor
ies t
o re
mai
n at
hig
h le
vels
leve
ls
400
04,
500
billio
n cu
bic
feet
Fore
cast
10%
war
mer
His
tory
3,00
03,
500
4,00
0
1,50
02,
000
2,50
0
10%
col
der
050
01,
000
J20
10J
2011
J20
12J
2013
J20
14
Bas
e ca
se
Jan
2010
Jan
2011
Jan
2012
Jan
2013
Jan
2014
Not
e: N
orm
al ra
nge
(col
ored
ban
d) re
pres
ents
the
rang
e be
twee
n th
e m
inim
um to
max
imum
from
Jan
. 200
7 to
Dec
. 201
1. 12
Sou
rce:
EIA
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y O
utlo
ok, O
ctob
er 2
012
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y an
d W
inte
r Fue
ls O
utlo
okO
ctob
er 1
0, 2
012
Elec
trici
ty
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y an
d W
inte
r Fue
ls O
utlo
okO
ctob
er 1
0, 2
012
13
Win
ter e
lect
ricity
bill
fore
cast
s als
o hi
gher
bec
ause
of
retu
rn to
nea
r-no
rmal
col
der w
eath
er e
ast o
f the
Roc
kies
Per
cent
cha
nge
from
last
win
ter (
fore
cast
)
Con
sum
ptio
nAv
erag
e pr
ice
Tota
l ex
pend
iture
s
Sha
re o
f all
U.S
. ho
useh
olds
that
use
el
ectri
city
as
prim
ary
spac
e f
Con
sum
ptio
npr
ice
expe
nditu
res
10
019
%W
esthe
atin
gfu
el
10-3
7
10-1
1012
%
62%
Mid
wes
t
Sou
th
10-3
66%
Nor
thea
st
14
Sou
rce:
EIA
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y O
utlo
ok, O
ctob
er 2
012
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y an
d W
inte
r Fue
ls O
utlo
okO
ctob
er 1
0, 2
012
Hea
ting
Oil
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y an
d W
inte
r Fue
ls O
utlo
okO
ctob
er 1
0, 2
012
15
EIA
exp
ects
resi
dent
ial h
eatin
g oi
l pric
es to
ave
rage
2%
hi g
her t
his w
inte
r tha
n la
stg
5dolla
rs p
er g
allo
n
4
Win
ter
Hom
e he
atin
g oi
l ret
ail p
rice
Fore
cast
23 1B
rent
cru
de o
il sp
ot p
rice
0 Jan
2008
Jan
2009
Jan
2010
Jan
2011
Jan
2012
Jan
2013
Hom
e he
atin
g oi
l ret
ail p
rice
incl
udes
taxe
s.
16
Sou
rce:
EIA
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y O
utlo
ok, O
ctob
er 2
012
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y an
d W
inte
r Fue
ls O
utlo
okO
ctob
er 1
0, 2
012
The
grow
ing
dive
rgen
ce b
etw
een
heat
ing
oil a
nd n
atur
al g
as
pric
es sl
ows t
his w
inte
r with
hea
ting
oil p
rice
up 2
% a
nd n
atur
al
gas p
rice
1% h
ighe
rU
.S. a
vera
ge re
side
ntia
l win
ter h
eatin
g fu
el p
rices
dolla
rs p
er m
illio
n B
tu
2530na
tura
l gas
heat
ing
oil
fore
cast
hist
ory
1520 510 020
04-0
520
05-0
620
06-0
720
07-0
820
08-0
920
09-1
020
10-1
120
11-1
220
12-1
3W
inte
r(O
ctob
er -
Mar
ch)
SS
OO
17
Sou
rce:
EIA
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y O
utlo
ok,O
ctob
er 2
012
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y an
d W
inte
r Fue
ls O
utlo
okO
ctob
er 1
0, 2
012
Hea
ting
oil p
rices
rem
ain
unce
rtain
due
to th
eir
depe
nden
ceon
crud
eoi
lpric
esde
pend
ence
oncr
ude
oilp
rices
5dolla
rs p
er g
allo
n
Fore
cast
His
tory
4
y
23
Hea
ting
oil U
.S. a
vera
ge w
hole
sale
pric
e
12S
TEO
hea
ting
oil w
hole
sale
pric
e fo
reca
st
NY
ME
X N
.Y. h
arbo
r hea
ting
oil f
utur
es p
rices
68%
NY
ME
X c
onfid
ence
inte
rval
0 Jan
2011
Jul 2
011
Jan
2012
Jul 2
012
Jan
2013
Jul 2
013
95%
NY
ME
X c
onfid
ence
inte
rval
18
Sou
rce:
EIA
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y O
utlo
ok, O
ctob
er 2
012,
and
CM
E G
roup
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y an
d W
inte
r Fue
ls O
utlo
okO
ctob
er 1
0, 2
012
The
prob
abili
ty o
f Jan
uary
201
3 he
atin
g oi
l who
lesa
le p
rice
bein
g hi
gher
than
$3.
50 p
erga
llon
is a
bout
14%
gg
pg
prob
abili
ty o
f exc
eeda
nce
58%
50%
60%
30%
40%
14%
10%
20%
1%0%
> $3
.00
/ gal
lon
> $3
.50
/ gal
lon
> $4
.00
/ gal
lon
19
Sou
rce:
EIA
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y O
utlo
ok, O
ctob
er 2
012,
and
CM
E G
roup
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y an
d W
inte
r Fue
ls O
utlo
okO
ctob
er 1
0, 2
012
Goi
ng in
to w
inte
r, di
still
ate
inve
ntor
ies r
emai
n at
the
low
en
d of
thei
r nor
mal
ran g
eg
200
milli
on b
arre
lsFo
reca
stH
isto
ry
120
140
160
180
Bas
e ca
se10
% w
arm
er
6080100
120
10%
col
der
0204060
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Not
e: N
orm
al ra
nge
(col
ored
ban
d) re
pres
ents
the
rang
e be
twee
n th
e m
inim
um to
max
imum
from
Jan
. 200
7 to
Dec
. 201
1. 20
Sou
rce:
EIA
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y O
utlo
ok, O
ctob
er 2
012
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y an
d W
inte
r Fue
ls O
utlo
okO
ctob
er 1
0, 2
012
EIA
exp
ects
gas
olin
e pr
ices
will
fall
from
the
rece
nt p
eak,
with
re
gula
r gas
olin
e pr
ices
this
win
ter a
vera
ging
abo
ut 4
cen
ts p
er
gallo
n hi
gher
than
last
win
ter
5
Dol
lars
per
gal
lon
45Fo
reca
stW
inte
rH
isto
ry
23R
egul
ar g
asol
ine
reta
il
Bre
nt c
rude
oil
Pric
e
01
Pric
edi
ffere
nce
0 Jan
2008
Jan
2009
Jan
2010
Jan
2011
Jan
2012
Jan
2013
Jan
2014
Reg
ular
gas
olin
e re
tail
pric
e in
clud
es s
tate
and
fede
ral t
axes
.
Sou
rce:
EIA
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y O
utlo
ok, O
ctob
er 2
012
21S
hort-
Term
Ene
rgy
and
Win
ter F
uels
Out
look
Oct
ober
10,
201
2
Ove
r the
last
8 w
inte
rs, r
esid
entia
l hea
ting
oil p
rices
ha
vein
crea
sed
mor
eth
anre
tail
gaso
line
pric
esha
vein
crea
sed
mor
eth
anre
tail
gaso
line
pric
es
hist
ory
fore
cast
Ret
ail g
asol
ine
–he
atin
g oi
l pric
e di
ffere
nce
(dol
lars
per
gal
lon)
0.60
0.80
hist
ory
Hea
ting
oilm
ore
expe
nsiv
e
fore
cast
0.20
0.40
Hea
ting
oilm
ore
expe
nsiv
e
-0.2
0
0.00
Win
ter(
Oct
ober
-M
arch
)
22
Sou
rce:
EIA
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y O
utlo
ok, O
ctob
er 2
012,
and
CM
E G
roup
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y an
d W
inte
r Fue
ls O
utlo
okO
ctob
er 1
0, 2
012
Prop
ane
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y an
d W
inte
r Fue
ls O
utlo
okO
ctob
er 1
0, 2
012
23
Fore
cast
pro
pane
exp
endi
ture
s als
o hi
gher
than
last
win
ter
beca
use
ofco
lder
wea
ther
and
incr
ease
dde
man
dbe
caus
eof
cold
erw
eath
eran
din
crea
sed
dem
and
Per
cent
cha
nge
from
last
win
ter (
fore
cast
)
Aver
age
Tota
l
Sha
re o
f all
U.S
. ho
useh
olds
that
use
pr
opan
eas
prim
ary
spac
eC
onsu
mpt
ion
Aver
age
pric
eTo
tal
expe
nditu
res
--
-16
%W
est
prop
ane
aspr
imar
ysp
ace
heat
ing
fuel
--
-
17-5
1136
%
34%
Mid
wes
t
Sou
th
16-1
1514
%N
orth
east
24
Sou
rce:
EIA
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y O
utlo
ok, O
ctob
er 2
012
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y an
d W
inte
r Fue
ls O
utlo
okO
ctob
er 1
0, 2
012
Prop
ane
inve
ntor
ies r
emai
n ne
ar th
e hi
gh e
nd o
f the
ir hi
stor
ical
rang
edu
ring
the
upco
min
gw
inte
rhi
stor
ical
rang
edu
ring
the
upco
min
gw
inte
r
80milli
on b
arre
lsFo
reca
st
His
tory
50607010
% w
arm
er
304050
10%
cold
er
His
tory
01020B
ase
case
10%
cold
er
0 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Not
e: N
orm
al ra
nge
(col
ored
ban
d) re
pres
ents
the
rang
e be
twee
n th
e m
inim
um to
max
imum
from
Jan
. 200
7 to
Dec
. 201
1.
SE
IAS
htT
EO
tlk
Ot
b20
12
25
Sou
rce:
EIA
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
yO
utlo
ok,O
ctob
er20
12
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y an
d W
inte
r Fue
ls O
utlo
okO
ctob
er 1
0, 2
012
Form
ore
info
rmat
ion
Form
ore
info
rmat
ion
U.S
. Ene
rgy
Info
rmat
ion
Adm
inis
tratio
n ho
me
page
| w
ww
.eia
.gov
Sho
rt-Te
rm E
nerg
y O
utlo
ok |
ww
w.e
ia.g
ov/s
teo
Ann
ual E
nerg
y O
utlo
ok |
ww
w.e
ia.g
ov/a
eo
Inte
rnat
iona
l Ene
rgy
Out
look
| w
ww
.eia
.gov
/ieo
Mon
thly
Ene
rgy
Rev
iew
|ww
wei
ago
v/m
erM
onth
lyE
nerg
yR
evie
w|w
ww
.eia
.gov
/mer
26S
hort-
Term
Ene
rgy
and
Win
ter F
uels
Out
look
Oct
ober
10,
201
2