woapic mtg mar 2 2013
TRANSCRIPT
L. Porayko
March 2013
“The value of experience is not in seeing much, but in seeing wisely.”
The Golden Rule is….
Don’t Lose
Money
3 Value Themes
Serial Compounding Machines
Event Driven Special Situations
Cigar Butts
3 Pillars
Management
Moat
Mispricing
Mitigants: kill the idea
This is what a compounding machine looks like.
NOV: great company hated sector
Look familiar?
Mgmt
VisionAllocationExecutionProbity
Moat
‘No Other Vendor’EOS (60% M/S)
‘Sticky’ ContractsROIC>25%
Moat cont’d
o⏏Economic rents
oSupply chain
oIndustry standard
oBargaining power
Mispriced
Opportunity vs. valuation dislocation
Mispriced
What are the normalized earnings?
Mispriced
Shouldn’t it trade at a premium vs. peers?
Mispricing
EPV $7.40/share
x Historical P/Elow 13.5x = $99.90/share
x Historical P/Ehigh 18.5x = $136/share
Discount by WACC 8.4% to mid 2014
Low $99.9/(1.084)1.5 = $88.52/share
High $136/(1.084)1.5 = $120.50/share
MOS = 29%-77% current share price
Mitigants
Cameron-SLB JV threat
Commodity
Disruption risk
Key-man risk
SKUL: a fallen angel left for dead
Mgmt Founder Activists Buy-back 16%
Moat De minimis
Mispriced P/E 6x vs. comp 23x
SPE:activist on sale?
Mgmt
•Track-record
•1% MER
•Insider buying
•DividendsMoat
•Small pondsMispriced
•12% < NAV
DRA CRT Acquisition Corp Preferred Stock DCAQP
Mgmt‘Sterling’ ICPMOwn 58%
MispricedOver-collateralized 5x IRR 20%