winning through disruption in the transport...
TRANSCRIPT
1 | © 2017 Infinera
Winning Through Disruption In The Transport Market
Investor Overview
November 2017
2 | © 2017 Infinera
This presentation contains "forward-looking" statements that involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. If the risks or uncertainties ever materialize or the assumptions prove incorrect, our results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact could be deemed forward-looking, including, but not limited to, any statements about future market and financial performance and similar statements; statement regarding future products or technology as well as the timing to market of any such products or technology; any statements about historical results that may suggest trends for our business; any statements of the plans, strategies, and objectives of management for future operations; any statements of expectation or belief regarding future events, potential markets or market size, technology and product developments, or enforceability of our intellectual property rights; statements regarding our second quarter outlook; and any statements of assumptions underlying any of the items mentioned.
These statements are based on estimates and information available to us at the time of this presentation and are not guarantees of future performance. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, delays in the release of new products or updates to existing products and market acceptance of these products; customer consolidation; fluctuations in customer demand, changes in industry trends, and changes in the macroeconomic market; the risks of competitive responses and shifts in the market; the effect that changes in product pricing or mix, and/or increases in component costs could have on our gross margin; our ability to respond to rapid technological changes; aggressive business tactics by our competitors; our ability to adequately respond to demand as a result of our restructuring plan announced in November 2017; our reliance on single and limited source suppliers; our ability to protect our intellectual property; claims by others that we infringe their intellectual property; war, terrorism, public health issues, natural disasters and other circumstances that could disrupt the supply, delivery or demand of Infinera’s products; and other risks and uncertainties detailed in our SEC filings from time to time. More information on potential factors that may impact our business are set forth in Infinera’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the fiscal quarter ended on September 30, 2017 as filed with the SEC on November 8, 2017, as well as subsequent reports filed with or furnished to the SEC from time to time. Our SEC filings are available on our website at www.infinera.com and the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov. Forward-looking statements are subject to change, and we may not inform you when changes occur. We assume no obligation to, and do not currently intend to, update any such forward-looking statements.
Safe Harbor
3 | © 2017 Infinera
The most vertically integrated optical transport systems company• Unique technology innovation with PIC
• Vertical integration drives superb reliability and
differentiated cost structure
• Best-in-class systems with automation,
convergence and scalability
Industry-leading global service and support
Right tools for right job
Focused on customer success
Infinera: A Differentiated Optical Systems Company
Enabling An Infinite Pool of Intelligent Bandwidth
Cloud XpressDTN-X
XTC Series
Photonic Integrated Circuit (PIC)
XT-500
XTM/XTG Series
Cloud Xpress 2
FlexCoherent® Electronics
XT-3600
XT-3300
4 | © 2017 Infinera
Global Customer Base
Over 600 customers
spanning six continents
Three of thetop four
internet content providers
Majority of largecable operators
in North America and Europe
Leading North America and
pan-European wholesale operators
19 Tier 1 operators globally
5 | © 2017 Infinera
Technology LeadershipInfinera Uniquely Delivers Massive Scale
The Infinera ApproachConventional Approach
Electronics/ASICs
Intelligentsoftware
Photonic integrated circuitsCoherent optical engine
VerticallyIntegrated
Vertically Integrated
Moore’s Law-like for Optical
Industry’s only large-scale photonic integrated circuit
Significant Barriers to Entry• Hundreds of millions of
dollars spent over the years to build indium phosphide PIC factory
• 15+ years of experience
• More than 450 patents covering IP
7 | © 2017 Infinera
Long-haul: Infinera’s Heritage
* Dell’Oro DWDM Long-haul Reports
2005: Shipped 10G PIC-based DTN, rapidly reaches $100M
2007: 10G wave market leader (47%)*, completed IPO
2000: Infinera founded, promises to do the impossible: PICs
2004: Introduced industry’s first large-scale PIC
2008: #1 market share in NA Long-haul*
2010: Leapfrogs 40G, invests in 100G
2012: Shipped 500G PIC-based DTN-X
…2000 2004 2005 2007 2008 2010 2012…… …
DTN-X Fuels Infinera’s Growth
2012-2015 Revenue CAGR
Infinera: 26%
Worldwide Long-haul: 8%**
**Average of projections from Dell’Oro, Ovum, IHS
8 | © 2017 Infinera
Long-haul: Established Leader
* Based on average last 4 quarters of reports from Dell’Oro, Ovum, HIS** Expected to ship in 1st half of 2018
Long-haul Market Presence*
#2 North America, #5 worldwide
Market Share: ~30% North America; ~10% Worldwide
XTC Series
XT-500
XT-3600**
XT-3300
Technological Differentiation
Operational simplicity
Terabit-class PIC-enabled scalability
Sliceable photonics
Power/space network efficiency
XT Series
DTN-X Family
9 | © 2017 Infinera
DCI: Cloud Architecture Drives Network Demands
sources: google.com, facebook.com
Search Query
930x Network Traffic
Cloud Data Center Network
1500 Miles
HTTP request
10 | © 2017 Infinera
Cloud Xpress Cloud Xpress 2
DCI: Infinera Cloud Xpress Family
500 Gb/s super-channel line10/40/100 GbE clients
Hyperscale Density Simple OperationLow Power Automation Built-in SecurityInstant Bandwidth
1.2 Tb/s super-channel line in 1RU100 GbE clients16QAM
11 | © 2017 Infinera
1G to 100G packet-optical
100G at Layer 1 and Layer 2 P-OTS
16QAM applications with XTM-2, XT-3300 and XT-3600
Multi-service, access to core
Low power and latency, high-density design
Metro: Solutions From Core To Access
Cloud Xpress Family
XTC-2/2E
Building a differentiated portfolio from core to access
XTM/XTG Series
XT-3600*
XT-3300
* Expected to ship in 1st half of 2018
12 | © 2017 Infinera
Metro: A Significant Growth Opportunity
• Strong customer base and reputation in metro edge/access• Power-efficient and purpose-built products
• Early technology leadership in applications like Remote PHYDifferentiated Approach
• High-capacity solutions for metro core upgrades to 100G• Over time, lowers cost structure and enhances tech
differentiationVertical Integration
• Long-haul customer base upgrading to 100G metro• Strong presence in metro-heavy cable vertical
Customer Base
Infinera Current Metro Market Share: 3% Worldwide*
Significant opportunities to grow! *Average of latest projections from Ovum, IHS, Dell’Oro and ACG
13 | © 2017 Infinera
Instant Network: The Next Generation of Software Defined Capacity (SDC) for Cloud Scale Networks
Instant Network - Leading the Way to Cognitive Networking
▪ Reduce OpEx• Fewer truck rolls, automate LSO
▪ Accelerate Service Delivery• Respond quickly to new service demands
▪ Increase Service Reliability• Reduce human touchpoints
▪ Reduce Idle CapEx
• As much as 50% of capacity idle
• Lower initial CapEx by activating SDC when revenue-generating services demand it
• Reduce business risk by shrinking time between paying for capacity and activating services
Instant Network Benefits
Cognitive NetworkingInstant NetworkInstant Bandwidth
▪ Infinera DNA Software and Xceed Software Suite ▪ Microservices Architecture▪ Open Software and SDN APIs
Software Foundation:
▪ Industry-leading Photonics - 500G PIC, 2.4T Infinite Capacity Engine▪ Integrated and Disaggregated Architecture▪ Massive Pre-deployed Capacity, Sliceable
Hardware Foundation:Soft
wa
re D
efin
ed C
ap
aci
ty
14 | © 2017 Infinera
Infinera Unified End-to-end Portfolio
XTM Series DTN-X Family: XTC Series
Cloud Xpress Family DTN-X Family: XT /S Series
XTG Series
XTC-10
XTC-4XTC-2E
XTC-2TM-3000
TM-301TM-102EDUNID
CX CX2 XT-500 XT/S-3300XT/S-3600
DC INTERCONNECT
LONG-HAUL / SUBSEAMETROACCESS AGGREGATION REGIONAL CORE
INFINERA XCEED SOFTWARE SUITE AND DNA
MobileFront/Backhaul
Triple Play
Cable Broadband
Business Ethernet
Data Center
INFINERA OPEN FLEXIBLE GRID LINE SYSTEM
Transport Market: $13 billion addressable market by 2021**Source: Ovum ON Forecast Spreadsheet: 2016-21; Addressable market excludes China
XT/S-3600 expected to ship in 1st half of 2018
15 | © 2017 Infinera
Market Expansion
Bandwidth Explosion and Evolving Network Architectures Create Opportunities
16 | © 2017 Infinera
Explosion Of Bandwidth-hungry Applications And Devices
Infinera well-positioned to address bandwidth explosion
*Source: TeleGeography Global Bandwidth Forecast Q3 2016
Video
Cloud
Mobility
IoT
By the end of the decade*
Mobility▪ 11.6B devices
▪ Traffic >30 exabytes/month
Video▪ 80% global internet usage = video
▪ 11x more mobile video traffic than 2015
Cloud▪ Public cloud services: 19.4% CAGR from 2015
to $141B (2019)
Internet of Things
▪ > 24B networked devices
▪ 42.5 Mb/s avg fixed broadband speed, 2x 2014
17 | © 2017 Infinera
The Dismantling of Status Quo Networks is Underway
Transport Becomes More Capable with More Intelligence
Intelligent Transport shifting $$ away from Routing
Pressure to break Proprietary OS, Slow
Innovation
Routing (L3)
Transport(L0-L2)
Routers need transport systems to connect
XX
XX
X
NFV/Software pressuring traditional router infrastructure
Intelligent Transport increasingly capable of substituting for many router functions
“LAYER T”
18 | © 2017 Infinera
Network Transformation: The New Layers T and C
Open packetoptical, move bitsDC-DC, DC-user
Every possiblenetwork function runs in cloud
Layer T: IntelligentTransport
New Model
NFV Apps
SDN Control
Layer C:Cloud Services
Firewall
SBC
B-RAS
CPE
Packet
OTN
WDM
L0 – L3
L3 – L7
Old Model
Open APIs
Appliance per Function,Rigid, $$$, Closed
Shared Infrastructure, Agile, Open, $
LAYER C
LAYER T
Layer T powers hyperscale cloud networks – positive for Infinera
19 | © 2017 Infinera
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Tb/s
DCI and Long-haul: Layer T Traffic Patterns Changing
Private: 70% CAGRMostly DC to DC
Internet: 21% CAGRMostly user to content
Trans-Atlantic Bandwidth MixSource: Telegeography
100G Services are SurgingSource: Ovum
100G: 75% CAGR
10G: 16% CAGR
20 | © 2017 Infinera
Packet-Optical Requirements
Ethernet ServicesLow LatencySuperior SyncLow Space and PowerHardened Systems
Metro: Layer T Architectural Shift, Fiber Deeper Into Metro
100G Mobile Backhaul
MobileFronthaul BBUFiber to the tower
Fiber-deep Opportunity
Fiber to the business
CPE
CPE
Metro Biz Services
100GBackhaul
Deepfiber
accessB’cast
CCAPFiber to the node
22 | © 2017 Infinera
Infinera’s Journey – Seizing and Creating Market Inflections
* Dell’Oro DWDM Long-haul Reports
2005: Shipped 10G PIC-based DTN, rapidly reaches $100M
2007: 10G wave market leader (47%)*, completed IPO
2000: Infinera founded, promises to do the impossible: PICs
2004: Introduced industry’s first large-scale PIC
2014: Introduced Cloud Xpress for DCI
2015: Infinera enters metro; acquires Transmode
2016: Infinera validates interoperability with white box open line system
2008: #1 market share in NA Long-haul*
2017: lntroducing next-generation products powered by new optical engine (“ICE4”) and XTM-2 for metro
2010: Leapfrogs 40G, invests in 100G
2012: Shipped 500G PIC-based DTN-X
…2000 2004 2005 2007 2008 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017…… …
23 | © 2017 Infinera
Portfolio Expansion Increases ex-China TAM
Long-haul & Subsea Compact DCIMetro
Aggregation
2017 TAM ($M)
$4.4B $0.1B $5.0B
2021TAM ($M)
$5.0B $1.3B $6.3B
4-yr CAGR 3% 62% 5%
Source: Ovum ON Forecast Spreadsheet: 2016-21; TAM excludes China
Optimized SolutionsIncreased Share
3x TAM Expansion
Current LH/Subsea Only = ~$4B
2021 Overall = ~$13B
Expansion into Metro and DCI significantly increases TAM
24 | © 2017 Infinera
Optical Engines At Cloud Cadence
ICE4Up to 2.4T
Up to 200G/λUp to 33 Gbaud
Infinite Capacity Engine Family
2017 2018
ICE6Up to: 6.4T
Up to 800G/λUp to 100 Gbaud
Time
ICE5Up to 4.8T
Up to 600G/λUp to 66 Gbaud
ICE NGIn Planning
Targets:1T/λ
128Gbaud
20202019
Ca
pa
city
per
mo
du
le p
air
2021
25 | © 2017 Infinera
Building Blocks
Markets
Our Strategy: How Infinera Wins
DeliverNext-Gen Platforms
Increase Cadence of Optical Engine
Lead in Open:Open APIs,
Open Line Systems
Disaggregated and Integrated Solutions
Optimized per Customer
Balanced Portfolio –LH/SS/Metro/DCI
(End-to-end)
Grow Faster thanthe Overall
Optical Market
Help Customers Transition to “Layer T”and Win in Their Markets
27 | © 2017 Infinera
GrossMargin
Operating Expenses
A Structure to Deliver Differentiated Financials
Structured long-term financial model
High scale integrationUnique pricing
structures
InstantNetwork
Long-haul
DCI
Metro
Fixed cost leverage
R&D = long-term target 20% of revenue
Success basedS&M investment
G&A grows slowerthan revenue
Financial discipline
28 | © 2017 Infinera
$438
$544
$668
$888 $871
$736
38%
42%
44%
48% 48%
39%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 (Cons)
$ (
Mill
ion
s)
Revenue Gross Margin Operating Margin
-9%
1%
8%
13%
6%
Balance sheet as of the end of Q3 ‘17; gross margin and operating margin are non-GAAP
Sustained Success and a Setback… Long-term Targets Intact
Q3‘17 Performance $193 million revenue 39.1% Gross Margin -7.8% Operating Margin
Solid Balance Sheet
$309M cash and investments
$159M net cash
Q4‘17 Outlook $190 million revenue +/- $5 million 38% Gross Margin +/- 200 bps -10% Operating Margin implied
-10%
Addressing Challenges ICE4 revenue ramping Ramped up technology cadence Recovery from customer M&A Well positioned to address
architectural inflections
29 | © 2017 Infinera
Gross Margin: Investments today drive value tomorrow
Q4 GM% midpoint guide 38% +/- 200bps; Expect gradual improvement during FY18
GM% is non-GAAP
Long-haul Pre-deployment of bandwidthat next-gen pricing
Well-positioned with a strong customer base and growing IB license stream
MetroInvesting to earn incumbency
and footprint Market transition from 10G to 100G
packet-optical creates great opportunity
DCI Pricing pressure increasing; bridging key customers to CX-2
Emergence of cloud architectures should drive tremendous growth
Short-term margin impacts Strong return on investment
30 | © 2017 Infinera
The Future is Bright: Infinera’s Ultimate Opportunity
Long-haul/subsea return to growth; DCI and metro = high-growth opportunities
Photonic integration and pricing strategies enable differentiated cost model
Balancing technology investments with disciplined expense management
Long-term Goals Intact
• Outgrow Market
• 50% Gross Margin
• 15% Operating Margin
Gross margin and operating margin targets are non-GAAP
32 | © 2017 Infinera
The Future is Bright: Infinera’s Ultimate OpportunityInfinera Corporation
GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliation
(In millions, except percentages and per share data)
(Unaudited)
Note: Amounts represent the midpoint of the expected range.
Q3'17 Q4'17
Actual Outlook
Reconciliation of Gross Margin:
U.S. GAAP 35.2% 31%
Stock-based compensation 1.1% 1%
Amortization of acquired intangible assets 2.8% 3%
Restructuring and other related costs 0.0% 3%
Non-GAAP 39.1% 38%
Reconciliation of Operating Expenses:
U.S. GAAP 120$
Stock-based compensation (10)
Amortization of acquired intangible assets (2)
Restructuring and other related costs (17)
Non-GAAP 91$
Reconciliation of Operating Margin:
U.S. GAAP (17.8)% (32)%
Stock-based compensation 6.3% 6%
Amortization of acquired intangible assets 3.7% 4%
Restructuring and other related costs 0.0% 12%
Non-GAAP (7.8)% (10)%
Net Loss per Common Share:
U.S. GAAP (0.43)$
Stock-based compensation 0.08
Amortization of acquired intangible assets 0.05
Restructuring and other related costs 0.15
Amortization of debt discount 0.02
Income tax effects (0.01)
Non-GAAP (0.14)$