who is to blame for the weather? friederike otto environmental change institute school of geography...

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Who is to blame for the weather? Friederike Otto Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford [email protected] c.uk

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Page 1: Who is to blame for the weather? Friederike Otto Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford friederike.otto@ouce.ox.ac.uk

Who is to blame for the weather?

Friederike OttoEnvironmental Change Institute

School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of Oxford

[email protected]

Page 2: Who is to blame for the weather? Friederike Otto Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford friederike.otto@ouce.ox.ac.uk

We can ask how the risk of an extreme event occurring has changed due to external factors

Page 3: Who is to blame for the weather? Friederike Otto Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford friederike.otto@ouce.ox.ac.uk

Results from the Autumn 2000 flood analysisSubstantial, but uncertain, increase in risk

Pall et al. 2011

100% increase in risk

Page 4: Who is to blame for the weather? Friederike Otto Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford friederike.otto@ouce.ox.ac.uk

Is David Cameron right?

Page 5: Who is to blame for the weather? Friederike Otto Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford friederike.otto@ouce.ox.ac.uk

Loss and damage

Let us again be clear that we are witnessing ever more frequent, extreme weather events and the poor and vulnerable are paying the price,” Christina Figueres

Do we need scientific evidence?