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WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING? CDU Conference (19 September 2013)

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Page 1: WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING?...Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand •Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 •Australia

WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING? CDU Conference (19 September 2013)

Page 2: WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING?...Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand •Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 •Australia

PETER LITTLE – VICE PRESIDENT FLEET OPERATIONS

• A 22 year veteran with the organization

• Held various technical positions onboard up to Chief Engineer

• Moved from ship to shore in 2003 covering roles in Compliance, Assurance and Operations

• Joined the Carnival Australia leadership team in 2008 heading up the Fleet Operations division

2

Page 3: WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING?...Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand •Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 •Australia

GREAT DOMESTIC POTENTIAL

Page 4: WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING?...Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand •Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 •Australia

DYNAMICS OF A SUCCESSFUL MARKET

• Australia’s economic performance = strong consumer balance sheet

• Conditions have remained robust over the past 5 years

• Unemployment approx 5.5% for last 3 years

• Interest rates slowly declining

• A$ retreated slightly

4

Page 5: WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING?...Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand •Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 •Australia

DYNAMICS OF A SUCCESSFUL MARKET

5

Infrastructure

Fuel Costs

Port Fees

Page 6: WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING?...Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand •Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 •Australia

UNPRECEDENTED CAPACITY GROWTH

• Market size has almost doubled in 4 years

6 Source: 2011 ICCA Annual Cruise Market Report & internal estimates

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

ALB

D (

Mill

ion

s)

Australia & New Zealand Home Port Deployed Capacity ALB

P&O Cruises Princess Carnival Holland America Costa

Cunard Royal Caribbean Celebrity Other

YoY (%) Growth

21 6 15 77 28 4 17 23 22 2

Page 7: WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING?...Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand •Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 •Australia

PASSENGER NUMBERS FORECAST TO EXCEED 700K BY END OF 2013: AN INCREASE OF +200% SINCE 2008

125 116 122 140 160 207

255 329

456 498

31 42 64 82

91 97

86

109

133

160

+1% +18%

+18% +14%

+21% +12%

+28%

+34%

+12%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Australian Passenger Cruise Growth 2003-12

Fly-Cruise Homeport

• Passenger numbers grew to 660k in 2012, a two fold increase since 2008 and expected to reach +1 million by 2016

• The economic contribution of the cruise sector was A$830m in 2010-11 and expected to grow to over A$3.2b by 2020 NOTE 1

7

200% increase in pax numbers since 2008

Source: ICCA Annual Market Report 2012 (excludes river cruising passenger numbers)

NOTE 1: Deloitte Access Economic Report March 2012

Page 8: WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING?...Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand •Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 •Australia

MARKET PENETRATION RATES APPROACHING US LEVELS: DOUBLING IN UNDER 5 YEARS

0.5%

1.5%

2.5%

3.5%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Pe

net

rati

on

Rat

e

Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand

• Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 • Australia second most penetrated market globally remaining ahead of Germany and

now surpassing the UK

Source: PSA and CLIA Australia annual reports & internal estimates

Page 9: WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING?...Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand •Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 •Australia

COASTAL POPULATION WITH EASY ACCESS TO HOMEPORTS: POTENTIAL FOR THE PENETRATION RATE TO GROW WELL BEYOND THE US

9

4.5m (17%) 3.3%

7.3m (27%) 4.1%

5.6m (21%) 2.0%

0.5m (2%) 2.0%

1.6m (6%) 2.1%

2.3m (9%) 2.6%

0.2m (1%) 0.9%

4.4m (15%) 1.1%

Australia/New Zealand population

Brisbane

Auckland

Homeports

Sydney

Melbourne

Fremantle

2012 penetration by State

Source: ABS & CLIA 2012 annual report

Page 10: WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING?...Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand •Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 •Australia

HOME PORTED SHIPS REGIONAL CALLS

P&O Cruises Princess

Carnival HAL

Pacific Jewel

Pacific Dawn

Pacific Pearl

Sun Princess

Dawn Princess

Sea Princess

Spirit

Legend Oosterdam

Volendam

Diamond Princess

^Seasonal deployment from Oct-14

Queen Mary 2

Queen Victoria

Queen Elizabeth

Cunard

Princess

Ocean Princess

Pacific Princess

HAL

Amsterdam

Costa P&O Cruises UK

Seabourn

Soujourn

Odessey

Aurora

Arcadia

Costa Deliziosa

Cost Neo Romantica

Page 11: WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING?...Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand •Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 •Australia

CRUISE BRANDS SHORTENING ITINERARIES: HOLIDAY TRENDS SUGGEST MORE FREQUENT SHORTER TRIPS AND FEWER LARGER HOLIDAYS

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Ave

rage

Du

rati

on

Financial Year

Average Cruise Duration Over Time

Carnival P&O Cruises Princess

Page 12: WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING?...Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand •Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 •Australia

18 domestic sailings in

2010 rising to 39 in

2014

Annual average

growth rate of 22% over the

past 5 years

THE GROWTH OF P&O’S DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET

Page 13: WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING?...Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand •Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 •Australia

13

Only cruise line

with one-stop short

cruises

Food & wine,

comedy and

lifestyle themed

cruises

2-5 night cruises

Meet Luke Mangan

Over 30 cruises

Page 14: WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING?...Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand •Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 •Australia

14

Only Australian

Open Tennis

cruises

3 ships in

Sydney Harbour for

Australia Day 2014

Still the best

way to experience

the Melbourne Cup

Christmas cruises

Mothers Day

cruises

New Year cruises

Page 15: WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING?...Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand •Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 •Australia

MORETON ISLAND

Page 16: WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING?...Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand •Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 •Australia

16

Visit Kangaroo

islands, Australia’s

Galapagos

Cruise from every

Australian mainland

state

18 cruises on

5 unique itineraries

Page 17: WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING?...Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand •Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 •Australia

EDEN – A REGIONAL OPPORTUNITY

17

Page 18: WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING?...Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand •Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 •Australia

Australia Day

cruises

NZ Natural

ice cream

onboard

Kids stop-motion film

classes

Moreton island

one-stop short cruise

Celebrity chef restaurant

Salt grill by Luke Mangan

Live NRL & AFL

on the Big Screen

Dedicated

Papua New Guinea

cruises

F1 and V8 car simulators

onboard

Australian Open

Tennis cruises

Page 19: WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING?...Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand •Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 •Australia

FUEL PRICE ON UPWARD TREND AGAIN

19

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

900.00

1,000.00M

ay

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

2010 2011 2012 2013

US$

Fu

el P

rice

pe

r M

T

Sydney

Singapore

Source:

Sydney prices from CAU actual lifting’s

Singapore prices from Corporate forecast

Page 20: WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING?...Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand •Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 •Australia

CRUISING HUBS KEY TO SHORT CRUISE SUCCESS

Page 21: WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING?...Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand •Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 •Australia

P&OSEAASIA

21

12 nt cruises

rndtrip Fremantle

to Indonesia

12-16 night

cruises visiting up to 5

countries in one

holiday

Page 22: WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING?...Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand •Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 •Australia

AUSTRALIA VS ASIA

Page 23: WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING?...Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand •Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 •Australia

Australia Day

cruises

CRUISE V CONTAINER

Page 24: WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING?...Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand •Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 •Australia

THANK YOU