where is the domestic cruising market going?...germany united kingdom usa australia & new...
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WHERE IS THE DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET GOING? CDU Conference (19 September 2013)
PETER LITTLE – VICE PRESIDENT FLEET OPERATIONS
• A 22 year veteran with the organization
• Held various technical positions onboard up to Chief Engineer
• Moved from ship to shore in 2003 covering roles in Compliance, Assurance and Operations
• Joined the Carnival Australia leadership team in 2008 heading up the Fleet Operations division
2
GREAT DOMESTIC POTENTIAL
DYNAMICS OF A SUCCESSFUL MARKET
• Australia’s economic performance = strong consumer balance sheet
• Conditions have remained robust over the past 5 years
• Unemployment approx 5.5% for last 3 years
• Interest rates slowly declining
• A$ retreated slightly
4
DYNAMICS OF A SUCCESSFUL MARKET
5
Infrastructure
Fuel Costs
Port Fees
UNPRECEDENTED CAPACITY GROWTH
• Market size has almost doubled in 4 years
6 Source: 2011 ICCA Annual Cruise Market Report & internal estimates
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ALB
D (
Mill
ion
s)
Australia & New Zealand Home Port Deployed Capacity ALB
P&O Cruises Princess Carnival Holland America Costa
Cunard Royal Caribbean Celebrity Other
YoY (%) Growth
21 6 15 77 28 4 17 23 22 2
PASSENGER NUMBERS FORECAST TO EXCEED 700K BY END OF 2013: AN INCREASE OF +200% SINCE 2008
125 116 122 140 160 207
255 329
456 498
31 42 64 82
91 97
86
109
133
160
+1% +18%
+18% +14%
+21% +12%
+28%
+34%
+12%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Australian Passenger Cruise Growth 2003-12
Fly-Cruise Homeport
• Passenger numbers grew to 660k in 2012, a two fold increase since 2008 and expected to reach +1 million by 2016
• The economic contribution of the cruise sector was A$830m in 2010-11 and expected to grow to over A$3.2b by 2020 NOTE 1
7
200% increase in pax numbers since 2008
Source: ICCA Annual Market Report 2012 (excludes river cruising passenger numbers)
NOTE 1: Deloitte Access Economic Report March 2012
MARKET PENETRATION RATES APPROACHING US LEVELS: DOUBLING IN UNDER 5 YEARS
0.5%
1.5%
2.5%
3.5%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Pe
net
rati
on
Rat
e
Germany United Kingdom USA Australia & New Zealand
• Penetration rate at 2.8% in 2012 and forecast to reach 2.9% in 2013 • Australia second most penetrated market globally remaining ahead of Germany and
now surpassing the UK
Source: PSA and CLIA Australia annual reports & internal estimates
COASTAL POPULATION WITH EASY ACCESS TO HOMEPORTS: POTENTIAL FOR THE PENETRATION RATE TO GROW WELL BEYOND THE US
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4.5m (17%) 3.3%
7.3m (27%) 4.1%
5.6m (21%) 2.0%
0.5m (2%) 2.0%
1.6m (6%) 2.1%
2.3m (9%) 2.6%
0.2m (1%) 0.9%
4.4m (15%) 1.1%
Australia/New Zealand population
Brisbane
Auckland
Homeports
Sydney
Melbourne
Fremantle
2012 penetration by State
Source: ABS & CLIA 2012 annual report
HOME PORTED SHIPS REGIONAL CALLS
P&O Cruises Princess
Carnival HAL
Pacific Jewel
Pacific Dawn
Pacific Pearl
Sun Princess
Dawn Princess
Sea Princess
Spirit
Legend Oosterdam
Volendam
Diamond Princess
^Seasonal deployment from Oct-14
Queen Mary 2
Queen Victoria
Queen Elizabeth
Cunard
Princess
Ocean Princess
Pacific Princess
HAL
Amsterdam
Costa P&O Cruises UK
Seabourn
Soujourn
Odessey
Aurora
Arcadia
Costa Deliziosa
Cost Neo Romantica
CRUISE BRANDS SHORTENING ITINERARIES: HOLIDAY TRENDS SUGGEST MORE FREQUENT SHORTER TRIPS AND FEWER LARGER HOLIDAYS
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7
9
11
13
15
17
19
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Ave
rage
Du
rati
on
Financial Year
Average Cruise Duration Over Time
Carnival P&O Cruises Princess
18 domestic sailings in
2010 rising to 39 in
2014
Annual average
growth rate of 22% over the
past 5 years
THE GROWTH OF P&O’S DOMESTIC CRUISING MARKET
13
Only cruise line
with one-stop short
cruises
Food & wine,
comedy and
lifestyle themed
cruises
2-5 night cruises
Meet Luke Mangan
Over 30 cruises
14
Only Australian
Open Tennis
cruises
3 ships in
Sydney Harbour for
Australia Day 2014
Still the best
way to experience
the Melbourne Cup
Christmas cruises
Mothers Day
cruises
New Year cruises
MORETON ISLAND
16
Visit Kangaroo
islands, Australia’s
Galapagos
Cruise from every
Australian mainland
state
18 cruises on
5 unique itineraries
EDEN – A REGIONAL OPPORTUNITY
17
Australia Day
cruises
NZ Natural
ice cream
onboard
Kids stop-motion film
classes
Moreton island
one-stop short cruise
Celebrity chef restaurant
Salt grill by Luke Mangan
Live NRL & AFL
on the Big Screen
Dedicated
Papua New Guinea
cruises
F1 and V8 car simulators
onboard
Australian Open
Tennis cruises
FUEL PRICE ON UPWARD TREND AGAIN
19
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
800.00
900.00
1,000.00M
ay
Jun
e
July
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
e
July
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
e
July
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
e
July
Au
g
2010 2011 2012 2013
US$
Fu
el P
rice
pe
r M
T
Sydney
Singapore
Source:
Sydney prices from CAU actual lifting’s
Singapore prices from Corporate forecast
CRUISING HUBS KEY TO SHORT CRUISE SUCCESS
P&OSEAASIA
21
12 nt cruises
rndtrip Fremantle
to Indonesia
12-16 night
cruises visiting up to 5
countries in one
holiday
AUSTRALIA VS ASIA
Australia Day
cruises
CRUISE V CONTAINER
THANK YOU