where does my electricity come from? creating generation mixes
TRANSCRIPT
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Where does my electricity come from?
Creating generation mixes
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What information do I need?
1. Type of nearby generators(Power plants, dams, windmills, solar arrays)
2. Proportion – amount of total generation made up by each type
(40% type A, 30% type B, 30% type C)
Generally state lines used as borders
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Guesses for Pennsylvania?
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Solar Intensity
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Wind Intensity
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Precipitation
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Coal Deposits
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US Generation Mix
Coal, 52%
Oil, 3%
Gas, 16%
Other, 3%Hydro, 7%
Nuclear, 20%
Other: Solar, Wind, Biomass, Geothermal, etc
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Guesses for Pennsylvania?
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Coal Oil Gas Nuc Hydro Other
Pennsylvania Generation Mix
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Is that the whole story?
What if power plants near me don’t generate enough electricity to meet my needs?
Pennsylvania does, but what about California and New York?
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Include Interstate Trading
Lots of electricity transfer in the United States, especially following deregulation in 1996
Currently, interstate electricity transfer ignored, but it’s a big part of the market 25% of California power is imported West Virginia exports 70% of theirs
These numbers have a significant impact, so new generation mixes, which include trading, are created for each state
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Where Does the Electricity Come From?
-69.1
-11.9-3.3
-3.1
1.1
4.810.2
11.8
12.320.1
29.1
2000 Net Imports (TWh)
Source: EPA eGrid
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0
595
246
802
718
246
486
875
805447
719
1229
1160
1133
1161
1258
1252
California Distances
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Import-Export Model: Linear Optimization
Classic transportation/distribution problem
Using two matrices of data (27 x 27)1. Distances from exporters to importers2. Shipments of power from exporters to importers
Minimize the sum-product of these matrices The “cost” of moving electricity from exporters to importers
Subject to the following constraint All electricity in system needs to be “used” – each row/column in
shipments matrix must sum to net surplus/deficit calculated from EPA data
By changing the amounts in the shipments matrix
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Completed OptimizationShowing Electricity Transactions (Shipments) in TWh
W E E E E E E E E W E E E E E E E E E W W E E E ECA OH VA FL NY NJ MA MD CN MN ID WI MS MI DC NC TN GA DE MO OR CO MX AR RI IA ME
E WV 30.1 12.1 10.5 3.4 56.2E PA 9.8 17.5 13.2 3.3 6.0 2.0 51.7
CN 7.8 13.5 11.8 10.8 44.0W WY 24.8 4.2 29.1E AL 23.6 5.2 28.8E IL 11.7 6.4 7.0 25.1W AZ 20.1 20.1E ND 1.9 12.0 3.3 1.7 18.8E IN 17.8 17.8W NM 9.2 3.1 12.3W MT 1.9 7.7 2.2 11.8W UT 10.2 10.2E SC 6.4 0.0 6.5E KY 2.1 3.1 5.2W NV 4.8 4.8E KS 2.5 1.8 4.4E NH 3.0 0.4 3.3W CA 2.1 2.1E NE 1.9 1.9W WA 1.1 1.1E SD 0.4 0.4E LA 0.4 0.4E OK 0.3 0.3E CT 0.3 0.3T TX 0.1 0.1
MX 0.1 0.1
E VT 0.0 0.0
69.1 31.4 30.1 23.6 17.7 17.5 16.5 15.4 13.9 13.5 11.9 11.8 11.5 10.8 10.5 9.9 9.1 8.4 6.0 3.6 3.3 3.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.7 0.4
E - Eastern Interconnect NOTE: Unshaded values are less than 1% of total electricity transferredW - Western InterconnectT - Texas Interconnect
Importers
Exp
ort
ers
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California Transfers
4.8
10.2
9.220.1
24.8
2.1
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The California Consumption Mix
• NOTE: Exporting states retain their original generation mixes
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Coal Oil Gas Nuc Hydro Other
Generation
Consumption