what would be the impacts of climate change assuming no, or some, or much emissions control and...

WHAT WOULD BE THE WHAT WOULD BE THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ASSUMING NO, OR CHANGE ASSUMING NO, OR SOME, OR MUCH EMISSIONS SOME, OR MUCH EMISSIONS CONTROL AND CONTROL AND SEQUESTRATION?SEQUESTRATION?

Martin parryMartin parry

Co-Chair, Working Group II,Co-Chair, Working Group II,

IPCCIPCC

Global mean temperature predictionsGlobal mean temperature predictions

Ensembles of four predictions of global mean temperature resulting Ensembles of four predictions of global mean temperature resulting from ‘business as usual’ changes in greenhouse gases following on from ‘business as usual’ changes in greenhouse gases following on from observed changes since 1860 (orange curves). The addition of from observed changes since 1860 (orange curves). The addition of sulphate aerosol cooling is shown in the red curves.sulphate aerosol cooling is shown in the red curves.

Te

mp

era

ture

(°

C)

Year

13

14

15

16

17

18

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

Global mean precipitation predictionsGlobal mean precipitation predictions

Ensembles of four predictions of precipitation (rainfall and snowfall) resulting Ensembles of four predictions of precipitation (rainfall and snowfall) resulting from ‘business as usual’ changes in greenhouse gases following on from from ‘business as usual’ changes in greenhouse gases following on from observed changes since 1860 (blue curves). The addition of sulphate aerosol observed changes since 1860 (blue curves). The addition of sulphate aerosol cooling is shown in the green curves.cooling is shown in the green curves.


–21860

8

6

4

2

0

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

To

tal p

reci

pita

tion

(%

ch

an

ge

)

Change in annual temperatures for the 2050sChange in annual temperatures for the 2050s

The change in annual temperatures for the 2050s compared with the present day, The change in annual temperatures for the 2050s compared with the present day, when the climate model is driven with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations when the climate model is driven with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations equivalent to about a 1% increase per year in COequivalent to about a 1% increase per year in CO22. The picture shows the average . The picture shows the average of four model runs with different starting conditions. of four model runs with different starting conditions.


Observed change in annual precipitation for the 2050sObserved change in annual precipitation for the 2050s

The change in annual precipitation for the 2050s compared with The change in annual precipitation for the 2050s compared with the present day, when the climate model is driven with an the present day, when the climate model is driven with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations equivalent to about increase in greenhouse gas concentrations equivalent to about a 1% increase per year in COa 1% increase per year in CO22. The picture shows the average . The picture shows the average of four model runs with different starting conditions.of four model runs with different starting conditions.


IMPACTS UNDER NO IMPACTS UNDER NO MITIGATIONMITIGATION

Annual runoffAnnual runoff

Percentage change in 30-year average annual runoff by the 2080s.Percentage change in 30-year average annual runoff by the 2080s.

University of Southampton

Population under extreme water stressPopulation under extreme water stress

Change, due to climate change, in the number of people living in Change, due to climate change, in the number of people living in countries with extreme water stress.countries with extreme water stress.

0

40

80

120

2020s 2050s 2080s

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illio

ns)


Crop yield change 2020s, )

2050s,2080s

2020s 2050s 2080s

% c

hang

e in

pric

es fr

om 1

990

base

line

10

8

6

4

2

0

–22020s 2080s 2020s 2080s

40004200

38003600340032003000280026002400

2050s 2050s

Cer

eal p

rodu

ctio

n (m

mt)

Referencescenario

Climate changescenario

2020s 2050s 2080sAdd

ition

al m

illio

ns o

f peo

ple

atris

k of

hun

ger

50454035302520151050

Additional people at risk of hunger under the climate change scenario (0 = Projected reference case).

Projected global cereal production for reference case and the climate change scenario.

Percentage change in global cereal prices under the climate change scenario (0 = Projected reference case).

People at risk from sea-level risePeople at risk from sea-level rise

Percentage change in the number of people at risk under the sea-level rise Percentage change in the number of people at risk under the sea-level rise

scenario and constant (1990s) protection (left bar) and the sea-level rise scenario and constant (1990s) protection (left bar) and the sea-level rise

scenario and evolving protection (right bar).scenario and evolving protection (right bar).

2050s2020s 2080s

700

400

500

600

100

300

200

0

% in

crea

se

Middlesex University / Delft Hydraulics

IMPACTS UNDER IMPACTS UNDER SOME/MUCH SOME/MUCH MITIGATIONMITIGATION

Emissions and concentrations of COEmissions and concentrations of CO22 from from unmitigated and stabilising emission scenariosunmitigated and stabilising emission scenarios

Unmitigated emissions 750 ppm stabilisation 550 ppm stabilisation

10

5

0

15

20

An

thro

po

gen

ic C

O2

em

issi

on

s (G

tC/y

r)

2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 C

O c

on

cen

trat

ion

(p

pm

)2

1000

950

900

850

800

750

700

650

600

550

500

450

400

3502000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350


Global average temperature rise from unmitigated Global average temperature rise from unmitigated and stabilising emission scenariosand stabilising emission scenarios

1900 2000 2100 2200

0

2

4

Glo

bal

tem

per

atu

re c

han

ge

(°C

)

3

1



Temperature riseTemperature riseAnnual average, from the present day to the Annual average, from the present day to the 2080s2080s


cUnmitigated Emissions

c

c Stabilisation of CO2 at 550ppm

Stabilisation of CO2 at 750ppm

Change in precipitationChange in precipitationAnnual average, from the present day to the Annual average, from the present day to the 2080s2080s

cUnmitigated Emissions

c




Changes in river runoff Changes in river runoff from the present day to the 2080sfrom the present day to the 2080s

Unmitigated emissions

Stabilisation of CO2 at 750 ppm Stabilisation of CO2 at 550 ppm

–75 –50 –25 –5 to 5 25 50 75Change in annual runoff (%)


Changes in water stress Changes in water stress from the present day to the 2080sfrom the present day to the 2080s

01 12 23 34 4

Billions of people

Increased water stressDecreased water stress


Unmitigated Emissions 750 ppm Stabilisation 550 ppm Stabilisation

Changes in crop yieldChanges in crop yieldfrom the present day to the 2080sfrom the present day to the 2080s



University of East Anglia

Potential change in cereal yields (%)

10 – 5

0 – -2.5

-5 – -10-2.5 – -5

-10 – -20

2.5 – 05 – 2.5

No data

Global number of people floodedGlobal number of people floodedunder three emissions scenariosunder three emissions scenarios

100

80

60

40

20

0

Peo

ple

flo

od

ed (

mill

ion

s/ye

ar)

2020s 2050s 2080s


University of Middlesex

No climate change

People flooded by regionPeople flooded by region60

0

10

20

30

40

50

Southern Mediterranean

West Africa East Africa South Asia SE Asia

Peo

ple

flo

od

ed (

mill

ion

s/ye

ar)

Unmitigated emissions 750 ppm stabilisation 550 ppm stabilisation No climate change


Island people floodedIsland people flooded600

500

400

300

200

100

0Caribbean Indian Ocean

small islandsPacific small islands

Peo

ple

flo

od

ed (

tho

usa

nd

s/ye

ar)


Unmitigated emissions 750 ppm stabilisation 550 ppm stabilisation No climate change

Malaria transmission Malaria transmission Change in duration of season, 2080sChange in duration of season, 2080s


Stabilisation at 750 ppm Stabilisation at 550 ppm

2 to 5 months 1 to 2 months –2 to –1 months –5 to –2 months

London School of Hygiene and

Tropical Medicine

Millions at Risk in the 2080sMillions at Risk in the 2080s

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75 3 3.25Temperature Increase

Ad

dit

ion

al

mil

lio

ns

of

pe

op

le a

t ri

sk o

f h

un

ge

r, m

ala

ria

a

nd

co

ast

al

flo

od

ing

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75 3 3.25

Ad

dit

ion

al

mil

lio

ns

of

pe

op

le a

t ri

sk o

f in

cre

ase

d

wa

ter

sho

rta

ge Risk of water shortage

Risk of malaria

Risk of hunger

Risk of coastal flooding

Legend

Sta

b.

550

Sta

b.

650

Un

mit

iga

ted

em

issi

on

s -

IS92

a

Sta

b.

450

Sta

b.

750

Sta

b.

1000

The Cost of Stabilising COThe Cost of Stabilising CO22 Concentrations Concentrations

The effect of different global The effect of different global economic pathwayseconomic pathways

Regional enterprise: high Regional enterprise: high pop, mod. growth, (A2)pop, mod. growth, (A2)

Local stewardship: ‘semi’-Local stewardship: ‘semi’-sustainable dev, low pop sustainable dev, low pop

(B2)(B2)

A2 in 2050s B2A2 in 2050s B2

• Pop 11.3 billionPop 11.3 billion

• GDP 82 tr $GDP 82 tr $

• primary energy primary energy 970 GJ/yr970 GJ/yr

• carbon 16 GtC/yrcarbon 16 GtC/yr

• Pop 9.3 billionPop 9.3 billion

• GDP 110 tr $GDP 110 tr $

• primary energy primary energy 870 GJ/yr870 GJ/yr

• carbon 11 GtC/yrcarbon 11 GtC/yr

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2020 2050 2080

Ad

dit

ion

al M

illio

ns

of

Peo

ple

A2 - Regional Enterprise B2 - Local Stewardship

Additional People at Risk of Hunger under the SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios

Costs of 550 Stabilisation Costs of 550 Stabilisation assuming different development assuming different development pathwayspathways

($trillion)

Global Non-ann 1 Annex 1

A2 3 - 6 2 - 4 1 - 2

B2 2 - 4 2 - 3 c. 1

Conclusions : Conclusions :

• Stabn at 750 does not avoid most Stabn at 750 does not avoid most effects. effects.

• Stabn at 550 does, but at Stabn at 550 does, but at considerable cost (= c.20 times considerable cost (= c.20 times Kyoto reductions).Kyoto reductions).

• Sustainable development (cf SRES B2 Sustainable development (cf SRES B2 pathway) needs also to be part of the pathway) needs also to be part of the ‘solution’‘solution’

-200

-180

-160

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

2020 2050 2080

Mill

ion

Met

ric

To

nn

es (

mm

t)

A2 - Regional Enterprise B2 - Local Stewardship

The Shortfall in Global Cereal Production for Reference Case and the SRES Scenarios

Millions at Risk in the 2050sMillions at Risk in the 2050s

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75 3 3.25

Temperature Increase

Ad

dit

ion

al

mil

lio

ns

of

pe

op

le a

t ri

sk o

f h

un

ge

r, m

ala

ria

a

nd

co

ast

al

flo

od

ing

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75 3 3.25

Ad

dit

ion

al

mil

lio

ns

of

pe

op

le a

t ri

sk o

f in

cre

ase

d

wa

ter

sho

rta

ge

Sta

bil

isa

tio

n@

550

pp

mv

Sta

bil

isa

tio

n@

750

pp

mv

Un

mit

iga

ted

em

issi

on

s -

IS92

a

Risk of water shortage

Risk of malaria

Risk of hunger

Risk of coastal flooding

Legend

Conclusions : 2Conclusions : 2

• Invest in adaptation, to increase resilience Invest in adaptation, to increase resilience to climate change: technology (eg GM), to climate change: technology (eg GM), engineering (eg water use efficiency), engineering (eg water use efficiency), institutions. These are ‘win-win’ (eg institutions. These are ‘win-win’ (eg drought-proofing).drought-proofing).

• Invest especially in key vulnerable regions Invest especially in key vulnerable regions and sectors: Africa, Indian subcont., small and sectors: Africa, Indian subcont., small islands; water, food, coastal settlement.islands; water, food, coastal settlement.

• Revise the adaptation/mitigation emphasis:Revise the adaptation/mitigation emphasis:

Change in vegetation biomassChange in vegetation biomassfrom present day to the 2230sfrom present day to the 2230s

–8 –5 –3 –1 1 3 5 8kgC/m2

ITE Edinburgh



c

Vegetation diebackVegetation dieback5

1

2

3

4

02000 21002050 2150 2200 2250

Are

a o

f ve

get

atio

n d

ieb

ack

(mill

ion

km

2)

Years


ITE Edinburgh

Uptake of carbon by vegetationUptake of carbon by vegetation

Sink

Source

5

4

3

2

1

0

–1

–2

–31950 20502000 2100 2150 2200 2250

Tra

nsf

er o

f ca

rbo

n t

o v

eget

atio

n (

GtC

/yr)


ITE Edinburgh

Changes in vegetation biomassChanges in vegetation biomassbetween the present day and the 2080sbetween the present day and the 2080s

–8 –5 –3 –1 1 3 5 8

kgC/m2

–8 –5 –3 –1 1 3 5 8

kgC/m2

–8 –5 –3 –1 1 3 5 8

kgC/m2

0 0.1 1 3 5 10 15kgC/m2

ITE Edinburgh

Unmitigated EmissionPresent Day


Changes in river runoffChanges in river runofffrom the present day to the 2230sfrom the present day to the 2230s

–75 –50 –25 –5 to 5 25 50 75Change in annual runoff (%)




c

Changes in water stressChanges in water stressfrom the present day to the 2080sfrom the present day to the 2080s



Stressed country with decrease in stress

Country moves to stressed class

Stressed country with increase in stress


Conclusions : 3Conclusions : 3

• Foster adaptation to avoid increased Foster adaptation to avoid increased inequality (autonomous adaptn=more inequality (autonomous adaptn=more unequal effects of climate change).unequal effects of climate change).

• Foster increased resilience (especially in Foster increased resilience (especially in the ‘tail’): a) seek the sub-optimal (eg the ‘tail’): a) seek the sub-optimal (eg drought resistant/non-max yield crop drought resistant/non-max yield crop varieties); b) (many) small vs (few) varieties); b) (many) small vs (few) large actions; c) promote stability (vs large actions; c) promote stability (vs growth?).growth?).

Rate of sea-level riseRate of sea-level rise

60

40

20

0 1990 2020s 2050s 2080s 2110s 2140s 2170s 2200s 2230s

Rat

e o

f se

a-le

vel r

ise

(cm

/cen

tury

)


Global wetland lossesGlobal wetland losses

20

15

10

5

02020s 2050s 2080s 2110s 2140s 2170s 2200s 2230s

Fra

ctio

n o

f w

etla

nd

are

a lo

st (

%)



Coastal floodingCoastal floodingChange from the present day to the 2080sChange from the present day to the 2080s


Stabilisation at 750 ppm Stabilisation at 550 ppm


Malaria transmission seasonMalaria transmission seasonEstimated for the present day (Estimated for the present day (falciparumfalciparum))

London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

People at risk of malaria additionally People at risk of malaria additionally from climate changefrom climate change

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

02020s 2050s 2080s

Ad

dit

ion

al p

eop

le a

t ri

sk (

mill

ion

s)


London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

what would be the impacts of climate change assuming no, or some, or much emissions control and...

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