What we know about the Impact of HIV/AIDS on

Teachers: a general overview

byAlan Whiteside and Peter Badcock-

WaltersHealth Economics and HIV/AIDS

Research DivisionUniversity of Natal

National trends in HIV prevalence

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

% H

IV p

osi

tive Botswana

Namibia

South Africa

Swaziland

HIV Prevalence

1 - 3%

3 - 6%

6 - 9%

9 - 12%

12 - 15%

15 - 18%

18 - 21%

21 - 24%

24 - 27%

27 - 30%

30 - 33%

33 - 36.2%

Provinces

Northern Cape

Eastern Cape

Free State

North West

Western Cape

Northern Province

KwaZulu-Natal

MpumalangaGauteng

1997Northern Cape

Eastern Cape

Free State

North West

Western Cape

Northern Province

KwaZulu-Natal

MpumalangaGauteng

1998

Northern Cape

Eastern Cape

Free State

North West

Western Cape

Northern Province

KwaZulu-Natal

MpumalangaGauteng

1999

Northern Cape

Eastern Cape

Free State

North West

Western Cape

Northern Province

KwaZulu-Natal

MpumalangaGauteng

2000

Northern Cape

Eastern Cape

Free State

North West

Western Cape

Northern Province

KwaZulu-Natal

MpumalangaGauteng

1994

Northern Cape

Eastern Cape

Free State

North West

Western Cape

Northern Province

KwaZulu-Natal

MpumalangaGauteng

1995

Northern Cape

Eastern Cape

Free State

North West

Western Cape

Northern Province

KwaZulu-Natal

MpumalangaGauteng

1996

Progression of HIV Prevalence in South AfricaTrends Amongst Provincial AnteNatal Clinic Attendees, 1994-2000

Source: National HIV and Syphilis Sero-PrevalenceSurvey of Women Attending Public AnteNatalClinics in South Africa, 1994 - 2000.

The Health Economics & HIV/AIDS Research DivisionUniversity of NatalKing George V AvenueDurban, 4041Tel: +27 31 260 2592Fax: +27 31 260 2587Email: freeman@nu.ac.zaInternet: www.und.ac.za/und/heard

Developed by Susan Erskine & Lucinda Franklin

We wish to acknowledge the assistance of staff atEduAction in the development of this output.In particular, we wish to thank Daniel Wilson for hisinvaluable guidance, time and provision of resources.

Legend

Intro.

Epidemic Curves, HIV

27Aug01 - Report I: Epidem’gy & Lit. p. 27

T1 T2 Time

Numbers

A1

A2

HIV prevalence

A

B

Epidemic Curves, HIV and AIDS

27Aug01 -Report I: Epidem’gy & Lit. p. 27

T1 T2 Time

Numbers

A1

A2

HIV prevalence

AIDS - cumulative

B1

A

B

Epidemic Curves, HIV, AIDS & Impact

27Aug01 -Report I: Epidem’gy & Lit. p. 27

T1 T2 Time

Numbers

A1

A2

HIV prevalence

B1

A

B

AIDS - cumulative

Impact

0

10

20

30

40

50

6019

85

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

Mil

lio

ns

Tota

l po

pu

lati

on

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Mil

lio

ns

Nu

mb

ers

HIV

, AID

S s

ick

and

HIV

dea

ths

Totalpopulation

Total HIV

TotalnumberAIDS sick

CumulativeHIVdeaths

Numbers infected, sick and dead, ASSA2000

HIV Positive South AfricansA projection

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

1995 2000 2005 2010

years

popu

latio

n

Source: Metropolitan Life

All orphans and orphans due to AIDS by HIV prevalence, Uganda, by year

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year0

0.5 million

1 million

1.5 million

2 million

Total Number

0

6%

12%

HIV Prevalence

Total Orphans

AIDS Orphans

HIV Prevalence

A model of futureAIDS and non-AIDS Deaths

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

year

num

ber

of d

eath

s

Other deaths AIDS Deaths

Declining life expectancy

Changes in life expectancy in selected African countries with high and low HIV prevalence: 1950-2005

Source: UNAIDS, 2002. Report on the global HIV/AIDS epidemic

Projected population structure with and without the AIDS epidemic, Botswana, 2020

80757065605550454035302520151050

020406080100120140 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Males Females

Deficits due to AIDS

Projected population structure in 2020

Population (thousands)

Ag

e in

yea

rs

Source: US Census Bureau, World Population Profile 2000

AIDS orphans in South Africa

33

NYHQ HIV/AIDS Unit Apr 21, 2023

Estimated increase in adult death rates relative to the 1985 rates

Women

0.000

0.500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64

Age

Rati

o

1994

1996

1997/8

1998/99

1999/2000

NYHQ HIV/AIDS Unit Apr 21, 2023

Estimated increase in adult death rates relative to the 1985 rates

Men

0.000

0.500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64

Age

Rat

io

1994

1996

1997/8

1998/99

1999/2000

What goes around comes around part 1

What goes around comes around