what future for eu utilities (if any)?
TRANSCRIPT
What future for EU utilities (if any)?
Prague– Energy Regulatory Forum(17 March 2016)Jean-Michel Glachant Director “Florence School of Regulation”@ European University Institute – Florence (Italy)
What future?
If any…
What?
1/ Simple: future is just a (?)What was it about?
• More RES? • Less fossil fuel? Or less utilities? Half utilities half dead? E.ON
-10bn (EDF weights 18bn); Vattenfall & lignite• Less nuclear? Or no nuclear? E.ON, RWE, Vattenfall 19bn;
Areva – 10bn; EDF weights 18bn Hinkley alone 24bn• No wealthy “Major” utilities left: who will drive “energy
transition” innovation and investment? Smaller utilities? As Iberdrola? New comers & Investment funds? Nobody needed? Nobody knows?
3
2/ Less Simple: future is not the pastWhat was it about?
• More RES? • More grid investment… but not more energy What is a right
incentive regulation to “invest more” but not “deliver more”?• At what point more “grid cost past through” becomes
“incentive regulation” for consumers to bypass the grid? • Inevitable to define new services, new KPIs? To go to “A la
Carte” tariffs & to stop “Universal Postal Stamp”?
4
3/ Less Simple: future not at all the pastWhat was it about?
• More RES: more distributed gen. & local system operation? • TSOs did become “internal market facilitators” via Unbundling
+ “Target Model” + Grid Codes• Where are DSOs “Unbundling +“Target Model” +Grid Codes? • Inevitable to define “Demand Response” as service, as
products, in a market (pocket market? Local? Coupled to internal market?) To go to “A la Carte” tariffs & to stop “Universal Postal Stamp”?
• Inevitable to kill “Yearly average commodity contract” as base of “normal contract practice” (see French Winter peak)
5
4/ More Simple: Airbnb + Uber > interactive plaforms of local operationwas it about?• Two waves of innovation
• 1/ Massive “digitalisation” (ITC for each individual > Qualitative / collection of more accurate data
+ Quantitative / High number of decision making units) Data / Algorithms / Signals
• 2/ Tgy lowering costs of assets for local generation, local storage, and internet of things
• (1/ + 2/) facilitate local coordination of system investment and of system operation >> more local investment & op.
• End of retail utilities EXCEPT for “public service obligation” (Red Cross for unwilling & unequipped + Stranded Assets)
6
www.florence-school.eu
To conclude? Nobody should try concluding an introduction…
www.florence-school.eu 8
Thank you for your attention
Email contact: [email protected]
on Twitter: @JMGlachant already >15 000 tweets
My web site: http://www.florence-school.eu