weekly panoramasunseedman.weebly.com › uploads › 3 › 1 › 9 › 7 › 31970037 ›...

1 VEYSEL KAYA/SUNSEEDMAN, www.sunseedman.com, [email protected]

THE EXPERT SUPPORT ON REPORTING, ANALYSES, CONSULTING AND BROKERAGE AS PER 20-YEAR SECTOR EXPERIENCE

WEEKLY PANORAMA 22 JUNE 2018

PAGE 2 – USD/TL PARITY

PAGE 3 – EUR/USD PARITY

PAGE 4 – PETROL/CRUDE

PAGE 5 – SUNSEED LOCAL MARKETS

PAGE 6 – SUNSEED FOREIGN MARKETS

PAGE 7 – SUNOIL/SUNMEAL LOCAL MARKETS

PAGE 8 – SUNOIL FOREIGN MARKETS

PAGE 9 – SOY COMPLEX MARKETS

PAGE 10 – RAPESEED/CANOLA COMPLEX MARKETS

PAGE 11 – PALM OIL MARKETS

PAGE 12 – WEATHER REPORT

QUOTE OF THE WEEK: When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on... Thomas JEFFERSON

http://www.sunseedman.com/

mailto:[email protected]



SOURCE : INO

USD/TL PARITY

Weekly Summary: While the parity made an entry to the week with 4.7272 level, it moved at 4.6730 –

4.7763 range and now around 4.74 level.

Bullish Fundementals: Nuisance coup restorations will take longer time! Unfortunately, the bloody terror

( lots of martyries and innocent citizens ) is still underway. Besides, geopolitical troubles ( esp. on Syria and

Iraq ) are kept. Dollar is still the strongest currency against others including Turkish Lira. BREXIT is also quite

risky since EU is the biggest export destination of Turkey. Credit note has been downgraded ( so many critics

also recently ). Election risks till 24 June 2018 even later. Tension in btw TR & EU, the main export destination. Huge Current Account Deficit still ( 57 Mlrd USD ). Conflicts in btw USA and TR on Syria and Quds/Jerusalem.

Bearish Fundementals: Turkish Central Bank will prefer tight conditions and take further new measures.

Turkish Central Bank may also increase the interest rates. Reportedly still hot Money inflows as safety port

from the neighboors. Profit-takings likely. Social media/Government support ( TL based tenders ) for Turkish

Lira! The markets do not prefer stronger Dollar. More tourists potential since Turkey becomes the cheapest

destinations ( record Jan/May18 visits ).

Our Projection: ?, The direction is TOTALLY BULLISH as long as it stays over critical and psycho 4.5

level. However, 4.5 – 5.0 range is more likely in near term! Let’s watch also political/geopolitical as well as

financial developments closely. The developments in btw USA and TR are really so crucial. Earlier elections

by 24 June are really so important.





SOURCE : INO

EURO/USD PARITY

Weekly Summary: Following 1.1609 level entry to the week, the parity moved at 1.1509 – 1.1646 range

within the week and now moves around 1.1625 level.

Bullish Fundementals: Fed and the markets may prefer cautious mode with TRUMP! No interest rate cut

by ECB at all! EU leaders still give the unity messages after BREXIT! Technical correction is likely. Till Sep18, ECB

has winded down ( 30 Mlrd EUR/month, by Sep/Dec18, 15 Mlrd EUR, after 2019, nope ) its stimulus in response

to accelerating growth in EUROZONE. MERKEL and SDP have agreed on GREAT COALITON with the approval

SPD voters as well ( but some cracks on the immigrant policies recently ).

Bearish Fundementals: UK has already performed BREXIT process. Low-interest rate policy will be kept. In

EUROZONE, albeit huge financial supports, still mixed economical figures have been releasing, mainly by

Germany, the locomotive. The terror/refugee/safety crisis are underway. Banking crisis in Italy & Spain ( even

Germany ) is still troublesome. Greece may also appear suddenly! Turkey may use refugee card soon!

Confusing political Outlook in Italy and Spain! Catalonia Liberilization in Spain with possible domino effects!

Trade wars.

Our Projection: ?, We suppose that Technical chart implies STEADY to SLIGHTLY LOWER trends being

below critical 1.20 level.





SOURCE : INO

PETROL/CRUDE

Weekly Summary: Brent Crude made an entry to the week with 73.06 $/Barrel and moved at 72.45 –

75.86 $/Barrel range within the week. Now, it moves around 73.90 $/Barrel as well.

Bullish Fundementals: Speculative funds ( new-price balloons! ) are possible!

Geopolitical/weather/terror/wildfire risks and so output disruptions still go on! OPEC/Non-OPEC members are

performing output cut! USA-Iran tension ( Increasing demonstrations. Renewal of sanctions ??? Withdrawal

from Nuke Deal ??? ). USA vs Middle East tension! Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Israel/Jerusalem are also crucial!

War tam-tams in Syria. Trade wars ( esp in btw USA and China ).

Bearish Fundementals: Record stocks still exist in USA nowadays. There are economical troubles in

China, the second Crude consumer as well as in Japan, the third Crude consumer. With the removal of

sanctions, Iran has been non-stop pumping Crude to worldwide markets ( sustainable ??? ). Global

production is also over demand still. US Shale Gas output and Drilling Rigs No may further recover soon.

Doubts somehow on the applicability/sufficiency/sustainability of such output cut ( possible some output

recoveries in this OPEC meeting ). Stronger Dollar. TRUMP/KIM summit was favorable.

Our Projection: ?, OVER 70 $/Barrel level of BRENT still implies UPWARD trend! Nevertheless, let’s

watch the output applications closely ( OPEC meeting by today n tomorrow ). Let’s also watch geopolitical

developments in Middle-East especially. TRUMP is also important! USA-Iran tension ( also demonstrations ) is

also crucial! Let’s also do not disclude Saudi Arabia/Yemen/Israel! War tam-tams in Syria ???





SOURCE : SUNSEEDMAN

SUNSEED LOCAL MARKETS

Weekly Summary: Earlier region of Cukurova harvestings may be initiated in 2 weeks. Lower acreages

of 60 kha vs 70 kmt, but current favorable Outlook may partly compensate the gap ( 140 – 150 kmt vs 175 ).

The Outlook in Thrace and Anatolia is mixed We also forecast lower national acreage ( 600 vs 675 kha of

17/18 ) and new-crop size ( 1.350 – 1.450 vs 1.625 of 17/18 ). Lower import-duties till 1 Aug at least ( 13% vs

27%, ie 58.5 vs 121.5 $/mt with 450 $/mt of Reference Price ).

Bullish Fundementals: Even 425 $/mt CIF Marmara ( bid ) import cost is even around 2.210 TL/mt for 40

basis ( 435, 2.255 & 440, 2.275 of sellers ). Nil local old-crop supplies ( so limited Black Sea ones as well ).

Solid/record local Sunmeal prices. Well-rebounded USD/TL parity in recent days/weeks. Weather risks for

Summer 2018.

Bearish Fundementals: There are financial troubles and refined shelf adulterations. Global new-crop

may be better than 17/18 levels ( 49.5 – 50 Mln T vs 48.65 ). There’s a dizziness/confusion still in the markets!

USD/TL is so volatile to take positions. Virtually over BSea new-crop plantings. Underway Rapeseed

harvestings locally. Only 2 weeks ahead for Cukurova new-crop. Import-duty cuts ( 13% vs 27 till 1 Aug ).

Our Projection: ?, With current conditions, Cukurova new-crop, 40 oil/2-3 admixture/6-8 moisture

may be at 2.100 +/- 50 range. Legislation, purchasing appetite of Crushers and selling interest of farmers,

USD/TL parity as well as CIF prices will be crucial.

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2016/17 & 2017/18 SEASONS LOCAL SUNSEED PRICES

40% BASIS, TL/mt





SOURCE : SUNSEEDMAN

SUNSEED FOREIGN MARKETS

Weekly Summary: In Constanza/Varna, the heart of Sunseed biz in Black Sea, July18 FOB prices were

almost unspoken. Refer to CIF Marmara, for so limited supplies, July18 seller prices were mostly at 435 - 440

$/mt vs 420 - 425 $/mt of bids. Turkish legislation and volatile/record USD/TL parity have been confusing of

Turkish crushers.

Bullish Fundementals: All BSea countries are increasing their crushings to create added-value! No Argie

option with pesticide troubles. Limited exportable old-crop supplies in Black Sea. Recent huge

appreciations in Sunmeal prices promote more crushings and create stiff competition in btw exporters and

crushers. Weather risks for Black Sea and globally.

Bearish Fundementals: UA/RU achieve huge crushings, so they are available to offer cheaper Sunoil (

as well as Sunmeal ) prices by creating zero/minus crushing margins for other countries. There are many

global financial turmoils and uncertainties. Argentinian new-crop harvestings are totally over. There are

trade wars globally. Some depreciations in Soybean prices recently. Better global new-crop size prospectcs

under normal Summer18 weather conditions.

Our Projection: ?, 430 $/mt +/- 10 CIF Marmara prices for old-crop and 385 +/- 10 $/mt for new-

crop are likely. But let’s watch also weather conditions, Turkish buying interest/legislation and global

oilseeds/vegoils and financial markets! Especially BSea weather conditions during growings and harvestings

are also crucial!

360

380

400

420

440

460

2016/17 & 2017/18 SEASONS SUNSEED IMPORT PRICESCIF MARMARA, $/MT





SOURCE : SUNSEEDMAN

SUNOIL/SUNMEAL LOCAL MARKETS

Weekly Summary: In Thrace/Anatolia, we lastly noticed the Crude Sunoil prices of around 950 +/- 25

USD/mt EXW ( Crushers are not willing to sell as TL/mt due to so volatile USD/TL parity ). Sunmeal prices for

26/28 P were also around 1.150 +/- 25 TL/mt EXW Thrace.

Bullish Fundementals: Less Rapeoil and Safoil adulterations with new legislation by implying more Sunoil

demands locally. The Sunoil cost from imported Sunoil is at least 4.745 TL/mt. Well-appreciated USD/TL parity.

Almost nil cheaper local supplies remained. Tourism season is underway with more demands.

Bearish Fundementals: Real/fair market conditions still do not unfortunately work due to the

adulterations as well as illegal/unethical leakages of imported Sunoil for domestic market. Solid global

seasonal Sunoil output is underway! Following the arrestments/detainments/trustees of major market

players after recent nuisance coup attempt, the buyer companies became quite limited! There’s a

dizziness/confusion still in the markets! Government is trying to curb the inflation rate in foodstuffies. Import-

duty cut in Sunseed ( 13% vs 27 ) and Crude Sunoil ( 23% vs 36 ). Solid/RECORD Sunmeal by lessening the

loadings on the shoulders of Sunoil. Private Label ( 25.95 TL/5 L PET by converting at 4.150 TL/mt EXW of Crude

Sunoil ) creates somehow pressure. Resumption of duty-free Bosnian Sunoil imports. The Sunoil cost from

even 440 $/mt CIF Marmara of seller is around 4.430 TL/mt.

Our Projection: ??, With current conjoncture, 950 +/- 25 USD/mt level of Crude Sunoil prices seem

quite likely for local ( in Thrace mostly ) in near-term. However, Especially, USD/TL parity and

Sunseed/Sunmeal local/international prices will determine actual markets. 26/28 P SFM prices, may also

stay solid with record USD/TL and also solid other feedstuffies! Nevertheless, Feeders and import Sunmeal

prices as well as USD/TL parity should be also watched closely!

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3600

3800

4000

4200

4400

4600

4800

5000

2016/17 & 2017/18 SEASONS LOCAL CRUDE SUNOIL PRICESEXW THRACE, TL/MT





SOURCE : SUNSEEDMAN

SUNOIL FOREIGN MARKETS

Weekly Summary: Sunoil July 2018 delivery FOB Black Sea prices were SLIGHTLY LOWER ( 5 ) within

the week and now move as 720 - 725 $/mt of buyers vs 730 - 740 $/mt of sellers for FOB UA ( 705 - 715 vs

720 - 730 FOB RU as well ).

Bullish Fundementals: Weather risks of Asian Palmoil and SAM Soyoil may be supportive. Petrol is solid

still. Relatively weaker Grivna and Ruble ( esp ) will promote more exports! Lower Black Sea old-crop

crushable supplies seasonally.

Bearish Fundementals: UA/RU Sunoil productions are still solid somehow. Record Palmoil production

potential and weaker prices will also influence Sunoil. Weaker Soyoil recently. There are global economical

risks! ARG new- Sunseed harvestings are totally over. Premiums to be resumed of Sunoil may lessen the

demands. 35% import-duty in India. More crushings with better Sunmeal prices.

Our Projection: ??, Sunoil crop Premium vs Soyoil and RBD Palmoil may be positive still. At this point,

725 +/- 15 $/mt FOB Black Sea ( esp. Russian ) prices are quite likely. Nevertheless, if other vegoils ( Soy,

Palm, Rape etc ) keep climbing/sliding, Sunoil may also partly accompany to this trend. USD/RUB and

USD/UAH parities are also quite crucial! Farmer Sales interests, Sunseed and Sunmeal prices are also so

important! Do not forget Petrol and weather conditions as well! Black Sea Summer18 weather

conditions???

725

745

765

785

805

825

845

2016/17 & 2017/18 SEASONS UA CRUDE SUNOIL PRICECIF MARMARA, $/MT





SOURCE : INO

SOY COMPLEX MARKETS

Weekly Summary: Soy Complex experienced DEPRECIATED mode for FOB cash prices within the week,

so Soybean, SoyMeal and Soyoil have drawn, 10 $/mt, 10 $/mt, and 5 $/mt of the performances

respectively.

Bullish Fundementals: Huge speculative funds! New significant US biodiesel mandates. Extra taxes for

biodiesel imports from Argie and Indonesia. EPA court ruling. Possible global weather anomalies/risks

during plantings, growings and harvestings, especially in USA. China somehow keeps up the purchasings

at record levels. Crude is so solid. Not-promising farmer sales interests! There are logistics/strike troubles in

South America. ARG suffered less acreage ( at least 5% ) and AROUND 20 Mln T of new-crop losses with

recent drier weather conditions. Reportedly lower acreage for USA during Spring18 by USDA. Possible

technical correction after recent huge setbacks.

Bearish Fundementals: China, the biggest destination, has economical troubles. BREXIT jitters and

global economical/geopolical risks are kept. Abundant global supplies still. Record US old-crop size. Totally

over BRA Soy harvestings with record new-crop size. Virtually over ARG Soy harvestings ( with 98% national

pace ). Virtually over US new-crop plantings ( with 98% national pace ). TRUMP uncertainty/trade wars,

especially in btw USA and China ( leader importer ). Mostly favourable weather in USA recently.

Our Projection: ?, Right now, huge global supplies still, BREXIT, TRUMP’s uncertainty and Chinese

angst/trade wars may be LOSER vs weather risks globally and USA, lower farmer sales, logistics troubles,

strike risks and so solid Crude. Neverthless, weather conditions, esp. in USA, will be the main determinant

soon. Besides, Fed and TRUMP’s policies and so Dollar Index as well as Chinese economical Outlook are

also important. 900 +/- 25 range is reasonable for CBOT Soy! Please also pay attention to BREXIT and

Chinese demand/trade war policies!





SOURCE : BARCHART

RAPESEED/CANOLA COMPLEX MARKETS

Weekly Summary: French MATIF Rapeseeds were STEADY to SLIGHTLY LOWER as EUR/mt within the week,

BUT Rotterdam Rape Oil was MOSTLY STRONGER. In Turkey, CIF Marmara Rapeseed new-crop prices were

at 415 - 425 $/mt and new-crop Rapeoil and Rapemeal prices are 825 - 850 $/mt and 300 +/- 10 $/mt

respectively. Local Rapeseed harvestings are underway with new-crop prices of 425 – 450 $/mt.

Bullish Fundementals: Currently so solid Crude. Weather risks globally! Lower new-crop size forecasts for

EU-28. Easier EUR/USD parity nowadays. Stronger Crusher purchasing interest locally. Nowadays, Chinese

buying appetite globally.

Bearish Fundementals: Global economical risks make pressure. BREXIT is confusing. Reference Price by

Turkey ( 1.000 x 0.10 = 100 $/mt of duty ). Lower import duties for ARG biodiesel by implying probably lower

demands for EU Rapeoil. Turkish 2018/2019 new-crop may be around 125 kmt vs 45 of 17/18. Weaker

Soybean prices in recent days/weeks.

Our Projection: ??, Weather risks and partly solid Crude may be BALANCED vs ARG biodiesel, BREXIT,

partly promising new-crop prospects, global economical risks. Please pay attention to weather conditions

as well as Crude! Do not forget also Chinese policies!





SOURCE : SUNSEEDMAN

PALM OIL MARKETS

Weekly Summary: Malaysian Palmoil markets were DEPRECIATED ( 20 $/mt ) within the week. Now, it

moves around 590 $/mt for RBD Palmoil FOB Malaysia July 2018 shipment.

Bullish Fundementals: El-Nino created below-average yields with drier conditions in Malaysia

especially. Weaker Ringgit ( still the weakest since 1998 ) promotes Palmoil exports. More supplies may be

shifted to biodiesel in Malaysia and Indonesia ( especially albeit US import-duty ). So solid Crude still. Lower

output. Prices try to bottom out. India hiked the import-duties of alternative vegoils.

Bearish Fundementals: There are overall demand anxieties globally, esp. China and EU. Some

beneficial rains nowadays in MLY/IND. Carcinogen accusations and Palmoil biodiesel ban ( for 2020 even

2030 programme ) in Europe. Albeit some drops, still huge stocks ( 2.17 Mln T by end-May18 ). % 5 export tax resumption by Malaysian Government. Sluggish exports ( 1-20 Jun18, AMSPEC/SGS, 4/10% ). Partly

sluggish Soyoil nowadays. Trade wars globally, esp. in btw USA and China.

Our Projection: ??, Global weather risks, lower output weaker Ringgit, well-solid Crude and Indian

duty hike for other vegoils may be BALANCED vs still huge stocks, sluggish exports and global economical

risks as well as sluggish Soyoil and so RBD Palm Oil FOB Malaysia prices may move at 575 - 625 $/mt range.

In the future; Crude, Soyoil, global economical conditions ( esp. India, China and EU ) and weather

conditions ( La-Nina, El-Nino etc ) will determine the direction. Attention for BREXIT and TRUMP’s policies!

575600625650675700725750775800

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2016/17 & 2017/18 SEASONS MALAYSIAN RBD PALM OIL

FOB, $/MT





BLACK SEA & SOUTH-EAST ASIA & USA 1-WEEK PRECIPITATION MAP ( SOURCE: NOAA )

In Black Sea; following recent limited locally short-time rainy and warmer conditions, once

partly rainy and warmer weather conditions are likely soon. Sunflower new-crop plantings

are virtually over, but the Outlook of the plants are not so promising indeed. Winter crops

harvestings are getting accelerated.

In Thrace; following recent warmer and mostly drier weather conditions, partly rainy, and

warmer conditions are likely soon! Sunflower plantings are totally over, but the Outlook is not

so promising ( beneficial rains are strictly needed asap ). Winter crop harvestings are

underway with 30 – 50% less yields vs record 17/18 season ones.

In South Asia; in addition to recent beneficial rain ones, esp. in Indonesia and Malaysia,

further beneficial rains are likely for Palm Oil areas. In India; some local rains soon are likely

as well!

In USA; Sunflower, Corn and Soy plantings are virtually over. Last Outlook of the plants are

mostly promising following recent beneficial rains. Soon also mostly favorable weather

conditions are likely ( but partly higher temperatures soon ).

BY MONDAY, LET’S KEEP UP OUR BLACK SEA SUN COMPLEX MONTHLY S&D UPDATE MARATHON

WITH ROMANIA…

© SUNSEEDMAN This report has been launched complimentarily and all a/m comments, news and prices contained herein are believed reliable. SUNSEEDMAN does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete. SUNSEEDMAN Ltd will not accept any responsibility of losses or damages with the relevant comments and prices. Any uses of reproduction, dissemination, copying, disclosure, modification, distribution and/or publication are strictly prohibited.

WEATHER REPORT



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