sunflower oil prices: trends, forecasts, factors to...

SUNFLOWER OIL PRICES:TRENDS, FORECASTS, FACTORS

TO WATCH REGIONAL AND GLOBAL TRENDS

July 11, 2017, Odessa / UKRAINE

Sunflower Oil Summit : Science & Industry

AGENDA

1-THE ROLE OF SUNOIL GLOBALLY

2 – SUNOIL PRICES & REGIONAL AND GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS

3 – 2017/2018 NEW-SEASON PROSPECTS

4- PRESENTATION SUMMARY

THE ROLE OF SUNOIL

GLOBALLY

IN CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON;

WORLD OILSEEDS OUTPUT IS AROUND

RECORD 560 MLN T.

SUNSEED IS

THE 3RD BIGGEST OILSEED FOLLOWING

SOYBEAN AND RAPESEED

WITH 8.8% ( RECORD 49.5 MLN T ) SHARE.

GLOBAL OILSEEDS OUTPUT ( MLN T )

Sunseed 49,5 9%

Others 53 9%

Soybean 350 63%

Rapeseed 68 12%

Cottonseed 39,5 7%

2016/17 Season, 560 Mln T total

Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD, USDA


WORLD VEGOILS OUTPUT IS AROUND

RECORD 190.0 MLN T.

SUNOIL IS

THE 4TH BIGGEST VEGOIL FOLLOWING

PALMOIL, SOYOIL AND RAPEOIL


GLOBAL VEGOILS OUTPUT ( MLN T )

Sunoil 18,5 10%

Others 25 13%

Soyoil 54 28%RapeOil 26,5

14%

Palmoil 66 35%

2016/17 Season,190 Mln T total



WORLD VEGOILS TRADE IS AROUND

RECORD 85.0 MLN T.

SUNOIL IS THE 3RD BIGGEST VEGOIL

FOLLOWING PALMOIL AND SOYOIL


GLOBAL VEGOILS TRADE ( MLN T )

Sunoil 10,25 12%

Others 7,25 9%

Soyoil 12,25 15%

RapeOil 5 6%

Palmoil 47,5 58%

2016/17 Season, 85 Mln T total


AFTER BRIEF GLOBAL OUTLOOK,

LET’S LOOK AT THE MAJOR PLAYER

COUNTRIES IN GLOBAL SUNOIL

OUTPUT, CONSUMPTION AND

TRADE.

BLACK SEA BASIN

IS THE HEART OF

GLOBAL SUN

COMPLEX OUTPUT

AND TRADE.


UKRAINE IS THE GLOBAL

LEADER HAVING AROUND

RECORD 6.255 KMT

OF SUNOIL OUTPUT

WITH 34% SHARE GLOBALLY.

WORLD SUNOIL OUTPUT ( 1000 TONS )

Ukraine 6.255 34%

Russia 4.485 24%

Turkey 800 4%

EU-28 3.250 18%

Argentina 1.300 7%

Others 2.410 13% 2016/17 Season, 18.5 Mln T Total



EU-28 IS THE GLOBAL LEADER

HAVING AROUND

RECORD 4.250 KMT

OF SUNOIL CONSUMPTION


WORLD SUNOIL CONSUMPTION ( 1000 TONS )

China 1.250 7%

Russia 2.600 14%

Turkey 975 5%

EU-28 4.250 23%

India 2.150 12%

Others 7.025 39%

2016/17 Season, 18.25 Mln T Total



UKRAINE IS THE GLOBAL

LEADER HAVING AROUND

RECORD 5.780 KMT

OF SUNOIL EXPORT


WORLD SUNOIL EXPORT ( 1000 TONS )

Ukraine 5.780 56%Russia 2.000 19%

Argentina 700 7%

Turkey 675 7%

Others 1.095 11% 2016/17 Season, 10.25 Mln T Total



INDIA IS THE GLOBAL LEADER

HAVING AROUND

RECORD 2.150 KMT

OF SUNOIL IMPORT


WORLD SUNOIL IMPORT ( 1000 TONS )

India 2.150 21%

EU-28 1.600 16%

China 1000 10%

Turkey 860 8%

Others 4.640 45%

2016/17 Season, 10.25 Mln T Total


SUNOIL PRICES

&

REGIONAL GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS

FOLLOWING SUNOIL ROLE AND MAJOR GLOBAL PLAYERS,

NOW, LET’S BE FOCUSED ON GLOBAL PRICES OF SUNOIL IN RECENT YEARS AND LET’S COMPARE TO

OTHER VEGOILS PRICES.

FIRST, LET’S LOOK AT CRUDE SUNOIL FOB PRICES

AS PER

ROTTERDAM ( 6 PORTS ),

ARGENTINA AND BLACK SEA

SINCE 1988/1989 SEASON

477

1639

352200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800GLOBAL SUNOIL FOB PRICES, $/MT

Crude Sunoil (EU, 6 Ports, FOB Rotterdam) Crude Sunoil FOB Argentina Crude Sunoil FOB Black Sea

Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD

AS YOU SEE;

1999/2000 SEASON IS THE BOTTOM WITH 352 AND 413 $/MT FOR ARGENTINA AND

ROTTERDAM RESPECTIVELY.

IN OCT 2000, ARGENTINIANAND ROTTERDAM FOB

PRICES WERE EVEN 294 AND 340 $/MT RESPECTIVELY.

AS YOU SEE ALSO;2007/2008 SEASON IS THE PEAK WITH 1.499, 1.501 AND 1.639 $/MTFOR BLACK SEA, ARGENTINA

AND ROTTERDAMRESPECTIVELY.

IN JUNE 2008, BLACK SEA, ARGENTINIAN AND

ROTTERDAM FOB PRICES WERE EVEN 1.774, 1.849 AND 2.045 $/MT

RESPECTIVELY.

SECOND, LET’S LOOK AT

CRUDE SUNOIL FOB

BLACK SEA PRICES SINCE

2000/2001 SEASON WHEN

UKRAINE STARTED TO BE

ONE OF THE MAJOR

GLOBAL EXPORTERS.

382

551 541612 636

549

763

1499

735

877

1302

11401090

851792 786

751

350450550650750850950

1050115012501350145015501650

CRUDE SUNOIL FOB BLACK SEA PRICES, $/MT


AS YOU SEE;

2000/2001 SEASON WAS THE BOTTOM WITH 382 $/MT.

IN OCT 2000, 299 $/MT OF THE LOWEST MONTHLY LEVEL WAS SEEN.

IN JUNE 2008, 1.774 $/MT OF THE HIGHEST MONTHLY LEVEL WAS SEEN.

HOWEVER, WE EVEN EXPERIENCED AROUND 1.900 $/MT BY MID-JUNE 2008.

NOW, LET’S LOOK AT ROTTERDAM

SUNOIL AND OTHER VEGOILS PRICES SINCE 1988/1989

SEASON


200300400500600700800900

100011001200130014001500160017001800

SUNOIL AND OTHER VEGOILS PRICES, $/MT

Soyoil FOB Argentina Sunoil FOB Rotterdam RapeOil FOB Dutch RBD Palm Oil FOB Malaysia

EXCEPT SOME EXTREME SEASONS

( INCLUDING CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON

WITH RECORD GLOBAL CROP SIZE ), ROTTERDAM SUNOIL

WAS ALMOST THE MOST HIGHLY-PRICED

VEGOIL.

SUNOIL REGIONAL AND GLOBAL PRICE

FACTORS

REGIONAL PRICE FACTORS;

1- USD/UAH & USD/RU PARITIES

UKRAINIAN GRIVNA &

RUSSIAN RUBLE CURRENCY

RATES ARE QUITE CRUCIAL

FOR SUNOIL EXPORTS.


2- FARMER SALES

SALES INTEREST OF UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN

FARMERS ARE QUITE IMPORTANT FOR CRUSHABLE

SUNSEED SUPPLIES AND CRUSHING MARGINS .


3- EXPORT DUTIES

UKRAINE HAS 10% AND RUSSIA

HAS 6.5% EXPORT DUTIES FOR

SUNSEED BY AIMING TO

PROVIDE MORE CRUSHABLE

LOCAL SUNSEED SUPPLIES .


4- TURKISH IMPORT DUTIES

TURKISH IMPORT DUTIES OF

SUNSEED AND SUNOIL ARE

DETERMINING THE ACTUAL

IMPORT SIZES.

REGIONAL PRICE FACTORS;5- TURKISH RE-EXPORTS

UNDER INWARD PROCESSING REGIME, TURKEY IMPORTS DUTY-

FREE CRUDE SUNOIL FROM BLACK SEA AND RE-EXPORTS IT AS REFINED

MAINLY TO IRAQ AND SYRIA BY UTILIZING

ITS LOGISTICS AND CULTURAL ADVANTAGES.


6- REGIONAL TRADE AND POLITICAL CONFLICTS

PLEASE REMEMBER TURKISH

SUNOIL IMPORT BAN FOR

RUSSIAN SUNOIL IN BETWEEN

MID-MARCH AND

MID-MAY 2017.


7- NEW REFINERY IN IRAQ

A NEW REFINERY FACTORY WAS JUST ESTABLISHED IN BABEL/IRAQ WITH

DAILY CAPACITY OF 2.000 TONS. THIS MAY REDUCE TURKISH REFINED

SUNOIL RE-EXPORTS TO IRAQ AND INCREASE CRUDE SUNOIL IMPORTS

FROM RUSSIA MAINLY VIA UMM QASR PORT IN PERSIAN GULF.

GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS;

1- SUNOIL/OTHER VEGOILS PREMIUM

SUNOIL PRICE PREMIUM VERSUS OTHER VEGOILS IS SO

IMPORTANT FOR PRICE ELASTIC DESTINATIONS SUCH

NORTHERN AFRICA AND IRAN FOREMOST.


2- PETROL PRICES

ALBEIT SUNOIL IS NOT BIODIESEL RAW MATERIAL

SO MUCH, IT’S ALSO INFLUENCED FROM OTHER

VEGOILS.

GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS;3- WEATHER CONDITIONS

EL-NINO, LA-NINA AND OTHER LOCAL WEATHER PHENOMENA ARE QUITE

CRUCIAL FOR ACTUAL CROP SIZES OF GLOBAL OILSEEDS

TO BE CRUSHED FOR VEGOILS OUTPUT.

GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS;4- POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND TRADE

RULES

POLITICAL AND GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN MAJOR

SUNOIL EXPORTERS/IMPORTERS AS WELL AS FOREIGN TRADE

LEGISLATION ARE NONE-NEGLIGIBLE.


5- CURRENCIES

EUR/USD AND OTHER

CURRENCIES ARE ALSO THE

MAJOR DETERMINANTS IN

SUNOIL AND OTHER VEGOIL

PRICES.

2017/18 SEASON PROSPECTS

BLACK SEA SUNFLOWER PLANTINGS BY SPRING 2017 WERE MORE OR LESS THE SAME OF RECORD SPRING 2016 ONES.

IN THIS CONNECTION, UNDER NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS, DISLIKE UNFAVOURABLE ONES IN ESP. BALKANS BY SUMMER 2015 AND 2016, STILL PROMISING

NEW-CROP SIZES ARE LIKELY.

BESIDES, AS PER EARLIER PLANTINGS, EARLIER HARVESTINGS ( STARTING BY

MID EVEN 5-10 AUG 2017 ) ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

NOW, LET’S LOOK AT OUR LATEST

2017/18 SEASON SUNSEED ACREAGES

NEW-CROP SIZE FORECASTS

BY MAJOR PRODUCERS.

2017/2018 SEASON GLOBAL SUNSEED PROSPECTS

Acreage, kha* Yield ( Kg/daa ) Crop Size ( kmt )

COUNTRY 2017/18 F 2016/17 2017/18 F 2016/17 2017/18 F 2016/17 No

Ukraine 6.350 6.350 236 13.500 - 14.000 15.000 1

Russia 7.750 7.750 148 10.500 - 11.000 11.500 2

Argentina 1.700 - 1.800 1.750 197 3.250 - 3.500 3.450 3

China 1.075 1.050 262 2.750 - 3.000 2.750 4

Hungary 660 650 292 1.750 - 1.900 1.900 5

Romania 1.100 1.025 185 2.000 - 2.200 1.900 6

Bulgaria 850 825 218 1.950 - 2.150 1.800 7

Turkey** 675 585 231 1.500 - 1.600 1.350 8

France 575 550 218 1.200 - 1.300 1.200 9

USA 575 625 192 1.000 - 1.100 1.200 10

Moldova 410 400 213 800 - 850 850 11

South Afr. Rep. 625 - 675 650 127 800 - 850 825 12

Kazakhistan 800 810 93 700 - 750 750 13

Spain 700 725 100 550 - 600 725 14

Serbia 200 200 313 575 - 625 625 15

Others 3.525 - 3.575 3.550 104 3.600 - 3.700 3.675 16

Total 27.570 - 27.770 27.495 180 46.425 - 49.125 49.500

* Planted Acreages Narrow-Range 47.000 - 48.000

** 150 - 175 kmt of Turkish confectionary and hybrid production are excluded.

SUMMING UP, REGIONALLY ;

• Ukraine, 13.5 – 14.0 Mln T ( 16/17, record 15.0 ),

• Russia, 10.5 – 11.0 Mln T ( 16/17, record 11.5 ),

• Romania, 2.0 – 2.2 Mln T ( 15/16, 1.9 ),

• Bulgaria, 1.95 – 2.15 Mln T ( 15/16, 1.8 ),

• Turkey, 1.5 – 1.6 Mln T ( 15/16, 1.35 ),

• Moldova, 0.8 – 0.85 Mln T ( 15/16, 0.85 ).

.

UNDER NORMAL WEATHER CONDITIONS;

2017/18 SEASON SUNSEED GLOBAL NEW-CROP IS LIKELY

AS

47.0 – 48.0 MLN T.

VS RECORD 49.5 MLN T. OF 2016/17.

IF SO,

GLOBAL SUNOIL OUTPUT & TRADE

MAY BE

AROUND 0.6 – 1.0 MLN T.

LESS THAN RECORD 2016/17 SEASON

ACCORDINGLY,

CURRENT EQUAL TO SLIGHTLY MINUS PRICE PREMIUM OF

SUNOIL VS SOYOIL

MAY BE EQUAL TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER SIMILAR TO

EARLIER SEASONS EXCEPT CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON.

ASIDE FROM SUMMER 2017 WEATHER CONDITIONS

( IN BLACK SEA ESP. ) FOR SUNSEED,

WEATHER PHENOMENA SUCH EL NINO ETC, SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS

IN US SOY AREAS, SOUTH AMERICAN SOY/SUNSEED NEW-CROP ACREAGES,

FED INTEREST RATE HIKE TIMELINE, EUR/USD PARITY, PETROL, BREXIT

PROCESS, TRUMP UNCERTAINTY AND GLOBAL

ECONOMIC/GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

ARE THE MAJOR QUESTIONMARKS!!!

PRESENTATION

SUMMARY

• SUNOIL IS AMIDS THE MOST PRODUCED AND TRADED AGROCOMMODITIESOF THE WORLD.

• UKRAINE AND RUSSIA ARE 2 GIANTS IN BOTH GLOBAL SUNOIL OUTPUT ANDTRADE.

• SUNOIL IS THE MOST HIGH-PRICED VEGOIL EXCEPT EXTREME SEASONSSUCH CURRENT 2016/17 ONE.

• BLACK SEA, THE HEART OF SUN COMPLEX, WHEREAS SUNFLOWER NEW-CROP ACREAGES ARE MORE OR LESS THE SAME OF RECORD SPRING 2016,BUT EXTRA-ORDINARY YIELDS MAY NOT BE REPEATED IN UKRAINE ANDRUSSIA FOREMOST.

• WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER NEW-CROP POTENTIALS, 2017/18 NEW-SEASONGLOBAL SUNOIL OUTPUT AND TRADE MAY BE 0.6 – 1.0 MLN T LESS THANCURRENT 2016/17 SEASON.

• IF SO, CURRENT SUNOIL PRICE PREMIUM ( EQUAL TO SLIGHTLY MINUS ) VSSOYOIL MAY BE EQUAL TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE NEXT 2017/18 SEASON.

• NEVERTHELESS, ARE WEATHER PHENOMENA SUCH EL NINO ETC, SUMMERWEATHER CONDITIONS IN US SOY AREAS, SOUTH AMERICAN SOY/SUNSEEDNEW-CROP ACREAGES, FED INTEREST RATE HIKE TIMELINE, EUR/USDPARITY, PETROL, BREXIT PROCESS, TRUMP UNCERTAINTY AND GLOBALECONOMICAL/GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS ARE THE MAJORQUESTIONMARKS STILL.

Great thanks for your kind attention…

велике спасибі…

Большое спасибо…

THE EXPERT SUPPORT ON REPORTING, ANALYSES, CONSULTING AND BROKERAGE AS PER OVER 19-YEAR SECTOR

EXPERIENCE ( SINCE 24 DECEMBER 1998 )

VEYSEL KAYAhttp://www.sunseedman.com

[email protected] : SUNSEEDMAN

GSM : 00 90 542 273 50 63Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/SUNSEEDMAN

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