webinar: 2012 mobile trends

© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 1 © 2009 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited

Webinar: 2012 Mobile Trends

Thomas Husson

Principal Analyst, Consumer Product Strategy

March 13, 2012

@Thomas_Husson

© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 2

Agenda

What's the state of the mobile market after Mobile World Congress?

What key trends should you expect in 2012 and beyond?

How to make the most of mobile consumer opportunities?


COMMUNICATE

CREATE CONSUME

CONTROL

Blogs

IM/chat

SMS

Ring tones Music

Search

News

Video TV

Web browsing

Games

Maps

Health

Payment Commerce

Banking

Ticketing

Parking

Social

networks

Pictures

Email/MMS

Organizer Voice

Mobile phones are becoming our 24*7 digital personal assistants


SuperConnecteds

Entertainers

Communicators

Talkers

Inactives

Increasing

mobile

sophistication

Connectors

• Use primarily communication

services (e.g, SMS)

• Primarily use voice

• Do not own a mobile phone

• Use mobile Internet at least weekly

• Conduct 2 or more mobile advanced

activities at least monthly

• Play games, listen to music or

Watch TV/video at least weekly

Mobile Technographics® Profiles

• Use mobile phone for work purposes

more than 25 percent of their time

Japan is still the most mobile-savvy country but the US are catching up quickly

18%

22%

6%

32%

28%

9%

33%

25%

9%

20%

30%

11%

52%

36%

12%

21%

10%

9%

Sources: 2011 Q2 European Benchmark, North American Technographics Benchmark Survey Q2/Q3, 2011, Q2 2011

Asia Pacific Benchmark


BRAZIL

METRO

CHINA

13%

5%

“How frequently do you access the mobile Internet (monthly or more)?”

31%

2011 mobile Internet penetration

2009 mobile Internet penetration

US

15%

MEXICO

METRO

INDIA

SWEDEN

UK 11%

6%

46%

38%

17%

35%

RUSSIA

36%

15%

16%

Source: European Technographics® Benchmark Survey, Q2 2011; North American Technographics® Benchmark Survey, Q2 2011

(US, Canada); North American Technographics® Online Benchmark Survey, Q3 2011 (US, Canada); Asia Pacific Technographics®

Benchmark Survey, Q2 2011; and Latin American Technographics® Benchmark Survey, Q2 2011 (Mexico, Brazil)

Mobile is the only truly global platform

Base: mobile users ages 18

and older


Mobile product innovation is increasingly coming from emerging markets

Mobile payments in emerging

countries are not just innovative -

they are becoming mass-market. The Huawei Ascend D1 quad-core

smartphone


―In 12 years, handsets are going to be 20 times

faster, which means phones that cost $400 now

will be available for $20.‖

Eric Schmidt, Google’s Executive Chairman In his keynote speech at Mobile World Congress, 2012, Barcelona

Smartphones are getting cheaper…


…and smarter than ever

Nokia 808 PureView smarpthone

with a 41MP camera LG Optimus 4X HD

New range of Sony smartphones


Hybrid devices and new form factors are emerging

Samsung Galaxy

Note 10.1

Samsung Galaxy Note

5.3 HD Screen

LG Vu

Asus Padfone


For now Apple App Store still leads the pack while Android Market is catching up quickly

Apple App Store

– >550,000 apps available for more than 315M iOS devices

– More than 25 billion downloads since launch in July 2008

– $4 billion paid out to developers cumulatively, Apple keeping ~$1.7 billion

Google Play (ex Android Market)

– >450,000 apps available for more than 300M Android activated devices

– More than 10 billion downloads since launch in October 2008

However, the Android Market is catching up quickly due to the significant

growth of Android devices’ activation (>850,000/day) and a massive

installed base of 300M devices


From hardware to software and services: the outcome of the platform war


Open your mind to open innovation

Source: Android (http://android.smartphonefrance.info)


Agenda





Amazon and Facebook to become disruptive distribution forces in the mobile space

Source: the Music Industry Blog

Apple and Amazon have mirroring

strategies and business models

Facebook as a platform – a new

disruptive force in the mobile space


Mobile devices have unleashed a storm of innovation that will change shopping and transform payments

Coupons & offers

Product information

Loyalty & rewards

Mobile payment


Payment Transport card

Access

control Connectivity

Service

discovery Debit card

NFC services will gain a lot of traction in 2012 but main usage will not be payments

© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 17 © 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited

Anticipate the impact of the mainstreaming of smartphones and tablets

Source: Forrester Research ForecastView – Mobile Adoption Forecast, 2011 to 2016 (Western Europe only);

FORRESTER RESEARCH PERSONAL DIGITAL DEVICES FORECAST, 2011 TO 2016 (EU 7)


Cloud computing and HTML 5 will increasingly be part of successful mobile product strategies


The phone is breaking free of

the PC — moving out of its

shadow — so must you

Anticipate disruption by thinking mobile not PC


The future of mobile is user-context

• A host of new technologies will appear in mobile phones and make

interactions more sensory (NFC, 3D cameras, chemical sensors…)

• Richer local data will drive context-based experiences – not just on

mobile devices


Flight - 2 days + 2h - 2h + 2 days

• Change reservation

• Reserve seat

• View reservations

• Check gate

• Departure time

• Lounge access

• Upgrade

• Arrival time

• Food order

• Movies

• Wi-Fi

• Ground

transportation

• Lost luggage

• Navigation

• Customer service

• Mileage status

• Reward travel

• Upcoming reservations

Contextual use of time will help prioritize home page

Airline example based on user time


Physical products will increasingly ship with mobile companion - enabling you to create new experiences

―Grandma made

tea today.‖

―The load is dry.

lean filter.‖


Agenda





What are your company's top 3 priorities/objectives for mobile consumer

strategy for phones? (Select top 3 reasons)

Base: 240 total respondents

Source: Forrester Q4 2011 Global Mobile Maturity Online Survey

Mobile objectives are starting to be defined to fuel corporate goals…


…But few organizations are ready to scale mobile consumer initiatives

• Organizational challenges are common issues:

• Single affiliates/brands deploying mobile without internal

coordination

• Decentralized approaches implying higher costs without the

common benefits of the learning curve

• Majority of companies are not able to measure their mobile

performance

• Limited investment, resources and expertise – particularly at a local

/ country level - are dedicated to mobile


The POST method: a systematic approach to defining or refining a mobile strategy

1. People Review the mobile profile of your own target

audience (consumers, employees)

2. Objectives Decide on your goals.

3. Strategy Determine your approach to meet your

objectives.

4. Technology Choose the technologies that will enable you

to implement your strategy.


Start planning mobile-only services and to deliver advanced contextual product experiences

Le

ve

l o

f S

op

his

tic

ati

on

High

Low

Evolution of Services Over Time

Nothing

Multi channel

Cross-

channel

Mobile

Unique

Advanced

Contextual

Today

Next 2-3 years

• Mobile-only services will offer

consumers incremental value

• These services make use of unique

device features such as GPS,

camera, NFC, accelerometer, and

new sensors, etc.

• These services often are built into

applications but could also include

messaging or Web

• Migrate services that are

frequently used online AND

are mobile appropriate (e.g.,

value in immediacy,

simplicity, and contextual)

Source: July 2011 ―The Future Of Mobile Is User Context‖


Hidden costs and impact on IT are rarely anticipated


Bridge marketing & business technology

Source: February 2012 ―Mobile Is The New Face Of Engagement‖

Mobile is not a one-off investment:

anticipate the total budget impact over

the years


Key Takeaways

• Mobile is the most disruptive technology today, and companies

have to anticipate how mobile could affect their business in the years

to come

• The future of mobile is not location but user context

• Get executive buy-in and bridge marketing & business technology


How Forrester can help


Forrester serves 19 professional roles


Argentina (NEW)

Australia

Brazil

Canada

China

France

Germany

India

Italy

Japan

Mexico

Poland

The Netherlands

Russia (NEW)

South Korea

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

US and US Hispanic

+ Longest digital consumer study, since 1997

+ 335,000 surveys yearly

+ 1,400 brands

+ 300 attitudes captured

+ 6 proprietary profiles

+ Deep, customizable, trended consumer insights

.

Consumer Technographics examines the impact of technology on consumer attitudes and behaviors


Data-rich inputs, experienced team, & rigorous methodologies to make you successful


Objective Advice

KEY QUESTIONS WE CAN HELP:

1. How successful are your mobile initiatives in

meeting strategic goals?

2. Do you know how mobile-ready are your

affiliates and brands across the world?

3. How does your mobile approach compare with

your competitors?

4. What are the best practices outside of your

industry?

5. Have you defined a clear mobile business case?

6. Is your company aligned internally on the

objectives and resources allocated to mobile?

7. Which areas should you prioritize?


There is much more to discover about consumer behavior and forecast trends

Contact Forrester for

more information.


Questions?

© 2009 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited

Thank you for you attention Thomas Husson

[email protected]

www.forrester.com

@Thomas_Husson

webinar: 2012 mobile trends

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