weather outlook 2015 & beyond elwynn taylor iowa state university
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Weather Outlook2015 & Beyond
Elwynn TaylorIowa State University
Corn/Soybean Market
• Market @9am 4 Jun 2015
ELEC. CORN[10] Jul-15 360'4 -0'4 Dec-15 378'4 -0'4 expect Dec @ $ 385' ELEC. SOYBEANS[10] Jul-15 942'4 -1'2 Nov-15 921'0 -1'0 expect Nov @ $ 825'
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• SOI 3 Jun 2015 = -9.2 (-10 is full strength El Niño)
High risk Moderate High
Beyond
El Niño
Friend of the Midwest farmer.
Better friend of the Argentine farmer (El Nino tends to be a Christmas event that may or may not persist through the Midwest growing season).
StrongLa Niña
ModerateEl Niño
Summer Temperature 2010
• This is OPPOSITE of past 3 years
La Niña : Extremes
El Niño: 70% chance of yieldgreater than the trend.
La Niña: 70% chance of yieldsmaller than the trend.
Neutral: 52% chance of yieldgreater than the trend.
(Oct to date)
Extensive Flooding in Northeast IA
October 2009
October 2010 to 2012
.
El Niño
To
La Niña
Return to El Niño
159 $4.85
162.3178
19581
146
170 $3.85 *165 $4.15
Example Yield-Price “Risk Wheel”
* Central. IA $3.35
US CornWisner
41 $10.70
4550
5923
40
46 $8.25 *44 $8.50
Example Yield-Price “Risk Wheel”
* Central. IA $7.70
US Soybean Wisner
Weather Volatility
Climate RISK in Agriculture is likely to be greater during thenext 20 years
Management of RISK is of increasing importance
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/season.JFM.nao.gif
stable period 2 stable period 3 stable period 4
137
Beyond
A Little on the USA:Continental Divide Anomaly
•
• Boundary is the Continental Divide, do NOT expect change
Elwynn TaylorIowa State University
Climatologist
END
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