dr. elwynn taylor - what the weather holds
TRANSCRIPT
What the Weather Holds for
2013 and Beyond
(Implications for Corn Yield & Price)
Elwynn Taylor
Iowa State University
www.twitter.com/elwynntaylor
•
Likely US yield (4 June 2013) US Corn 147 BPA (9.23 K/ha)
May starts
with snow
Weather
Extremes
Seldom
Benefit
Crops
101F on 14th
flood on 24th•
Age of Risk Management
• Some years: Very Good Crop
• Some years: Very Poor Crop
Drought: Impact & Adaptation
Washington University: a&s magazine Spring 2013
• Above the US Corn Yield Trend
Six Consecutive Years
Why is US corn production up?
• Corn has become profitable.
• No other reasons..
Corn Prices vs. Costs
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
$ p
er
bush
el
Season-average Price Cost per BushelLow yield year Chad E Heart
Change of Crop Demand
• Food (Human or Livestock)
– Food demand increases with population
– Livestock demand increases with wealth
• Fiber ??
• ENERGY DEMAND (Bio-fuel)
– Increases with wealth
– Increases with population
– Increases with Diminished supply of conventional
fuel
•
Bio-Fuel (Utah, 1944)
It took 1/3 of our farm to produce the “fuel” for our
farm equipment. We found it much better to buy
fuel for a tractor, and use the land to produce food.
People are now paying enough for fuel to go back
to growing fuel.
Global Energy Demand is Rising Rapidly Because Energy Consumption and Income are Linked
Why Bio-Fuel ?
• We Like our Energy
• Our hunger for Energy can
influence the Climate of the Planet
• Bio-Energy approaches renewable
in the short term
• Bio-Energy is a “food-fuel” trade-off
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-mlo.html
Midwest Precipitation
Has a multi-cyclic nature
May be a “Climate Change” indicator
in that a general increase is
consistent with increased
Atmospheric & Water Temperature
•
A year as extreme as 2012 is seldom
followed by a full return to normal.
There are 2 Kinds of
Drought
• Drought of “Hunger for Food”
• Drought of “Thirst for Water
– Amos 8:11
Sometimes called:
Agricultural and Hydrological drought
Or
Short Term and Long Term drought
•
• The winter pattern still resembles La Nina
Dry
ENSO has a Global Signal
• During years of El Nino
– US Soy & Corn do well
– US & Canada Wheat suffers from Drought
• During years of La Nina
– US Corn at risk
– Canada Wheat usually good
– Canada sometimes floods
Argentina responds to ENSO
much as does US corn & soy
ENSO History 2010- May 2013
• The La Niña began 22 July 2010
• The La Niña ended 21 March 2012
Trans-Canada
• 21 June 2010 ET
Europe now
•
• 501 year record
La Niña
Rolling a “7” or a “6” is a
drought. Corn > $4.00/bu
La N i ña
Iowa State University Extension
70% Chance of
Below Trend Yield
147 $5.53
160
144
162
$4.55
155
$4.85
140
$6.45
176
Dec 2013 price by Wisner 5/14/2013
$= 84.3223+ 0.0029xBPAxBPA – 0.9623xBPA
http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/outlook/cornbalancesheet.pdf
Tue: Dec corn $5.44 -- expectation 149BPA
Sea Now, & March 21
March 21
• Age of El Nino: favorable Midwest Yield
• Age of La Nina: Erratic Yield
• Strongest La Nina events.
•
stable period 2 stable period 3 stable period 4
137
ISMMS001
Soil Moisture History
• 2012: Oct 1 - Nov 19
Summary• Hurricane season expected to be active
• Drought likely to persist/expand in West
• Temperature (High &/or Low) significant
• Climate will likely be increasingly erratic (25 year interval)
Elwynn Taylor
Iowa State University
Climatologist
END
Twitter.com/elwynntaylor