dr. elwynn taylor - weather outlook 2016 & beyond
TRANSCRIPT
Weather Outlook2016 & Beyond
Elwynn TaylorIowa State University
Corn/Soybean Market
• Market @9am 8 Jun 2016
ELEC. CORN[10] Jul-16 4.30'2 +2'4 Dec-16 4.35'4 +2'2 expect Dec @ $ 2.90 to $3.50 ELEC. SOYBEANS[10] Jul-16 11.55'6 +13'6 Nov-16 11.29'2 +12'4 expect Nov @ $
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173
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• SOI 8 Jun 2016 = -6.9 (-8 is full strength El Niño)
High risk Moderate High
Beyond
El Niño
Friend of the Midwest farmer.
Better friend of the Argentine farmer (El Nino tends to be a Christmas event that may or may not persist through the Midwest growing season).
StrongLa Niña
ModerateEl Niño
Summer Temperature 2010
• This is OPPOSITE of past 3 years
La Niña : Extremes
El Niño: 70% chance of yieldgreater than the trend.
La Niña: 70% chance of yieldsmaller than the trend.
Neutral: 52% chance of yieldgreater than the trend.
(Oct to date)
Extensive Flooding in Northeast IA
October 2009
October 2010 to 2012 .
El Niño
To
La Niña
Return to El Niño
Weather Volatility
Climate RISK in Agriculture is likely to be greater during thenext 20 years
Management of RISK is of increasing importance
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/season.JFM.nao.gif
stable period 2 stable period 3 stable period 4
137
Beyond
A Little on the USA:Continental Divide Anomaly
•
• Boundary is the Continental Divide, do NOT expect change
Elwynn TaylorIowa State University
Climatologist
END
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Global Warming•
• http://yourweatherservice.com/climate/west-lafayette/united-states/usin0707
• http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=32&network=INCLIMATE&station=INC004&year=2016&var=high&dpi=100
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• 1994 Record high Yield 1995 decimated Yield
mygeohub.org/groups/u2u/acv
•
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159 $4.20162.3 178
19581146
170 $3.60 *165½ $3.70
Example Yield-Price “Risk Wheel”* Central. IA $3.10
US CornWisner
as of 6-12-2015
41 $9.45
45 50
592340
46 $8.25 *
45 $8.50
Example Yield-Price “Risk Wheel”* Central. IA $7.70
US Soybean Wisneras of 6-12-2015