vinod khosla - investing in the future - sustainability
DESCRIPTION
For a higher quality version, visit: http://decklaration.com/khosla Have been interested in the question: "Sustainability - How can we all live well and live within the means of one planet?" In my research, I came across Vinod Khosla. He is answering this question through venture capitalism. He has "venture assisted" a set of companies ranging from scalable clean energy to advanced agriculture to clean metals. He has created a nice presentation to evangelize about sustainability. I thought I'd take his 60+ page presentation and put my "magic touch" on it. After spending more than a few hours, here is what I came up with.TRANSCRIPT
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khosla ventures
Investing in the FutureVinod Khosla
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5 Billion people want to live like 500 Million do today
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We need
incremental and
disruptive
solutions.
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We need
incremental and disruptive
solutions.
Big Companies do
incremental well.
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We need
incremental and disruptive
solutions.
Disruptive challenges
demand disruptive
solutions.
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We need
incremental and disruptive
solutions.
Disruption
is what VCs do well
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“All progress depends upon the unreasonable man”GEORGE BERNARD SHAW
Disruption by
Increments
Evolutiona
ry
pathways
to
revolution
Disruption by
Increments
Adjacent Possibles
Groups
Clusters
Autocatalysis
Evolutiona
ry
pathways
to
revolution
Disruption by
Increments
Cynics never do the impossible, achieve the improbable, take on the inadvisable. Hope is only path to extraordinary success.
CORY BOOKER
(Tweet by NJ Mayor)
“
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Our willingness to fail gives us
the ability and opportunity to
succeed.
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Our willingness to fail gives us
the ability and opportunity to
succeed.
It is not because things are diffi cult that we do not dare, it is because we do not dare that they are diffi cult.Seneca
“
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Our willingness to fail gives us
the ability and opportunity to
succeed.
Only those who dare fail greatly can achieve greatly.Robert F. Kennedy
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Black Swan
EventsRarity
Extreme impact
Retrospective
Predictability
Chance of Disruptive Impact
Black Swan
Most large company innovation
Most Venture Investments
Accidental Venture
75%
Probability of Technology Succeeding
50%
25%
50%
100%
75% 100%25%
Success vs. Impact
10,000 Intelligent Shots
10 Googles or more!
10,000 Intelligent Shots
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It’s ok to fail as long as it is worth succeeding
Nothing that defies the law of economic gravity can scale
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Nothing that defies the law of economic gravity can scale
Economics matter
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DisruptivePortfolio
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A million year crude production cycle reduced to minutes and market competitive
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Engine that delivers 50%+ vehicle effi ciency atlower cost
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What if coal based electricity could be 75% cleaner and we used 75% less of it? Clean coal without ever taking it out of the ground
What if coal based electricity could be 75% cleaner and we used 75% less of it? Clean coal without ever taking it out of the ground
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Turning problem carbon dioxide into a feedstock for building materials
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No compromise 80% more effi cientpay for itself lighting
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Silicium
Energy
New thermodynamic cycles and thermoelectrics
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5x cheaper grid scale energy storage using only air
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Inexpensive high-density energy storage
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Renewable fuels: Food- ‐grade sugars from any biomass
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Advanced Agriculture –cut fertilizer & pesticide use and increase yields
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New Metals:Reinvent materials science & approach theoretical perfection at large scale
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Winners take (almost) all
The illusion of knowing
The illusion of knowing VS
The illusion of knowing VS
Knowing that we don’t know
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Ignore the
experts.
Heavier‐than‐air flying machines are impossibleLORD KELVINPresident, Royal Society, 1895
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There is no reason for any individuals to have a computer in their homeKen Olsen / President and Founder of DEC, 1977
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Forecast
McKinsey: US Mobile Subscribers
1980 forecast for 2000
ActualForecast
McKinsey: US Mobile Subscribers
1980 forecast for 2000
Yesterday’s technology, tomorrow’s forecast
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Could McKinsey or an analyst
have predicted?
Social Media(Facebook, Twitter)
Climate Change
Arab SpringChina’s RiseBerlin Wall
InternetComputerPhone
Genetic Engineering
Input the measurable
Obscure assumptions
Chasing false precision
Ignore the immeasurable
Forecastin
g Flaws
Experts are poorer forecasters than dart‐ throwing monkeysTetlock Study
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No relation between experience
and accuracy.(Based on thousands of forecasts made by hundreds of experts)
Tetlock study showed:
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Ecosystem, culture and mindsets….
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Any suffi ciently complex mixture of elements will make many if not every possible reaction ‘auto-catalyzed’ by some other element in the mixtureSTUART KAUFFMAN
“
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Increase odds of auto-
catalysis
Clusters
Density
Attitude
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Engineer your
company’s genes
PLAN
Culture of experimentation
Try frugally and fail fast
Failed tactics….
V S
Failed strategies
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Insurance, option value and risk reduction
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Not for the faint of heart
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Venture assist to succeed
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“The best way to predict the future is to invent itAlan Kay
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Salahuddin KhawajaDeveloped and Designed by
More at Decklaration.com
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Salah has 14 years of experience, primarily in the
Financial Services Industry. Before joining JP Morgan
he spent 11 years at Deloitte & Touche helping Fortune
500 clients with various types of Strategic Initiatives.
He is currently is based in Hong Kong with responsibility
for delivering the next generation platform for Securities
Processing.
Areas of Expertise: Strategy Development, Business
Transformation, System Integration, Program & Project
Management, Mobile Strategy, Data Analytics, Executive
Presentations
Sample Clients: Bank of America, Citi , MasterCard