“extrapolation of the past”

vs.

“inventing the future”

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& booting the Start-up Ecosystem

“Cynics never do the impossible, achieve the improbable, take on the

inadvisable. Hope is only path to extraordinary success.”

tweet

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History

1998: Software vs. Services

2000: Landlines vs. VOIP/Mobile

So what is next?

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large shifts are possible

as surely as...1985: NOT a PC in every home

1990: NO email

1995: NOT the internet

2000: NO pervasive mobile

2004: NO facebook

2007: NO iPhone; NO iPad

2011+: reason for optimism5

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can we reinvent India…

“All progress depends on the unreasonable man”

- George Bernard Shaw

“Human salvation lies in the hands of the creatively maladjusted”

- Martin Luther King

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“Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible”

- Lord Kelvin, President, Royal Society, 18958

“The telephone has too many shortcomings to

be seriously considered as a means of

communication.”- Western Union Internal Memo, 1876

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“There is no reason for any individuals to have a computer in their home”

- Ken Olsen, President, Chairman and Founder of DEC, 197710

…when conventional wisdom makes no sense

Source: New Scientist - http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20727711.400-fever-friend-or-foe.html

Should fever be reduced in critically ill patients: “there were seven deaths in people getting standard treatment and only one in those

allowed to have fever…”

…at which point the study was halted due to ethical concerns

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Extrapolating the past…

1995: Internet Technology will never replace telecom (ATM)

networks

The reality…Today, the world runs on internet technology

(TCP / IP)

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telecommunications: actual vs. forecast demand

1,000 GB/s

1 GB/s

1995 projection

1987 projection

1983 projection

1980 projection

1978 projection

13Source: internal forecasts for major telecommunications company

Actual

oil price forecasts (1985-2005)

Forecast

Actual

$51

$151985 1990 1995 2000

5 yearforecast

error

10 yearforecast

error

Data/Source: World Oil Prices Barrel) (current $ / - EIA Office of Integration Analysis and Forecasting

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Mckinsey : US mobile subscribers

Source: American Heritage Magazine - http://www.americanheritage.com/articles/magazine/it/2007/3/2007_3_8.shtml

forecast actual

1986 forecast for 2000

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yesterday’s technology, tomorrow’s forecast1980’s phone: year 2000 phone:

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2011 phone:

500,000+ available apps18bn+ apps downloaded

the folly of predictions: tetlock study

hundreds of experts.80,000+ “expert” forecasts & 20+ years

results: experts are poorer forecasters than dart-throwing monkeys

Source: http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2005/12/05/051205crbo_books1

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The illusion of knowing …

vs.

… knowing that we don’t know

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… and its getting even harder to predict

Source:L Coutesy of Ray Kurzweil and Kurzweil Technologies, Inc. Wkimedia commons, Mobile web post 3G

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

1

10

100

Year of commercial availability

Ye

ars

un

til

use

by 1

/4 o

f U

S p

op

ula

tio

n

Telephone

RadioTelevision

Personal computer

Mobile phone

Internet

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Linear Startups

Flipkart

Snapdeal

Makemytrip & Cleartrip

Caratlane

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India Specific(not necessarily all likely to succeed)

Ekgaon

Eko

Radio Tuk Tuk / Rickshawala

geosocials

eShakti

Gharpay

Inmobi

what will it be?

Taste graphs

curation vs. creation of online content

privacy vs. personalization

where will HTML 5 lead?

discovery vs. recommendation

curation of goods in the real world?

who do you trust? Friends, experts, crowd?

mvp with rapid iteration vs. better game play & production value?

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Enterprise redo…

CUDA supercomputers

New routers (Big Switch)

Mobile/Tablet: access/security (moka5, lookout)

New architectures: Nutanix

Big/unstructured data (kaggle)

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not yet done…Payments

Semantic Web

Convey intent

Analysis: Network, behavior,…

sensors

medicine

privacy & authentication

personalization Everything

everywhere

Anticipate needs (agents)

Group-sourced innovation

Discovery

Reputation

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Economic efficiency

Post-PC era

New behaviors

Consumerization of technology

Broader access

Anytime/anywhere

The future…

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“the cool dozen”

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data reduction (sulia, datasift)

“exponentially increasing data distilled to what you want to

know”

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big data analytics (billguard, recorded future …)

“exponential data increase transformed into insight”

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emotion (ness, foodspotting)

“delight the user”

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education (CK12)

“will we need teachers?”

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TV 2.0 (second screen, augmented reality)

“turn watchers into participants”

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social NEXT

“social for a purpose”

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interest graph (meebo, …)

“brand advertising”

“web check-in”

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health (Up…)

“quantified self”

“do we need doctors?”

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NFC (Verayo …)

“security and authentication for people and products”

“universal login, payments, records, banking…”

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democratization of publishing (Storify, snip.it…)

“social curation”

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utility (seatme, ringshuffle, weatherbill…)

“finally; useful applications”

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Marketplaces (InterviewStreet)

“rethinking employment and engagement”

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…and other “out there” ideas

Mind goggling – brain scans to reveal the mind...

MedAfrica – health information for the BoP…

Fingerprint paper/Forgery foil – authentication…

Crime Stopper - crowdsourced crime solving…

Ekgaon/Nokia Total Life – advice to ALL farmers…

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but has time for original

product companies arrived?

(beyond outsourcing, beyond western markets,

beyond small shifts)

…doctors/healthcare

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“quality info, diagnosis and suggestions for everyone”

…teachers/education

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“do we need teachers or classrooms?”

“universal access to quality education”

…shopping

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“shop anywhere, pay many ways”

“broad choices, no inventory”

…marketplaces (talent)

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“everyone has an opportunity”

“meritocracy”

…payments/cash

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“maximum access and low/no fees”

…UIDAI

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“multi-functional ID/transaction platform”

“skepticism or opportunity?”

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Secure NFC + QR + UIDAI …?

Authentication of products, people, devices

Building entries, Checkins/loyalty + extended reach

Two/three factor authentication for high security

Banking, tolls, ticketing, travel, shopping, …

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…some personal stories

(sun, juniper, google, energy,…..)

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so what is innovation about?

“Try and fail, but don't fail to try” - Stephen Kaggwa

“Courage is doing what you're afraid to do. There can be no courage unless you're scared.” - Eddie Rickenbacker

“Only those who dare fail greatly can achieve greatly.”- Robert F. Kennedy

“You will face many defeats in your life, but never let yourself be defeated.” - Maya Angelou

My willingness to fail gives me the ability to succeed

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I don’t mind failing but it better be worth succeeding if we succeed!

…taking risk

You can only lose 1x your/their money…

Do what you love and are passionate about

Guts and premature confidence

fear, but courage

Start leading…

Irreverence and rule breaking

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…taking risk

>65% are under 40!

lots of charts! Ask why?

…awareness, channels, bandwidth an opportunity?

are disadvantages of India a problem?

Best to work for startup or Google, FB,…?

…too much respect for MNC’s, govt?

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know your goals

Fame: Never carry the Amex card

Fortune: Never balance your checkbook

Freedom: Never having to say you are sorry

Friends: Never having to leave home

Fervor: Passion for a vision

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Questions?

vk@khoslaventures.com

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a few thoughts on energy

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Re-inventing Energy

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…5B people want to live like 500M do today

Source: EIA

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…technology expands the ‘art of the possible.’

…today’s ‘unimaginable’ is tomorrow’s ‘conventional wisdom.’

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…economics matter

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NOTHING that defies the law of economic gravity can scale

solutions for

... oil

... coal

... materials

... (efficiency of oil & coal use)

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“...relevant cost”

“...relevant scale”

“...relevant adoption”

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“the clean dozen”

What if oil was a 100% renewable and cheaper than fossil crude oil and we used 50% less of it?

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kior

“a million year crude production cycle reduced to minutes and

market competitive?”

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ecomotors

“Engine that delivers 50%+ vehicle efficiency for lower cost?”

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What if coal based electricity could be 75% cleaner and we used 75% less of it for lighting and cooling?

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ciris

“ … clean coal without ever taking it out of the ground”

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calera

“ ... turning problem carbon dioxide into a

feedstock for building materials”

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soraa

“no-compromise 80% more efficient pay-for-itself

lighting”

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Cooling

“new thermodynamic cycles and thermoelectrics”

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…electricity storage was low cost for both stationary & mobile applications

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lightsail

“ 5x cheaper grid scale energy storage, using only air”

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Quantumscape/Pellion

Quantumnanothingamijigit/magnesium

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…we applied unconventional technology to large problems like steel, sugars & agriculture?

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Advanced Agriculture

“massively cutting fertilizer & pesticide use and increasing

yields”

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New metals

“reinvent materials science”

“approach theoretical perfection at large scale”

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HCL

“food-grade sugars from any biomass”

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…imagine the possible

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to predict the future,

invent it!

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Questions?

vk@khoslaventures.com

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