vermont labor market information: nursing mathew barewicz vermont department of labor economic &...
TRANSCRIPT
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Vermont Labor Market
Information:Nursing
Mathew Barewicz Vermont Department of Labor
Economic & Labor Market Information Chief
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Presentation OutlinePART I•Discussion about Occupational Coding and Upcoming Changes
PART II•Historical Trends•Taking a Look Forward
•‘Real-Time’ Indicators
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Part I: Occupational
Coding
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Occupational Coding and the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics- The BLS uses a ‘job’ coding system called the Standard
Occupation Classification Manual --- or SOC manual
- The SOC manual is used predominately in the BLS’ Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) Program
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SOC Manual & the BLS (cont.)
-The OES Program collects/codes occupational data producing estimates of:
1. Prevalence (or count) of a particular occupation in a region
- Region defined as nation, state, metropolitan areas and other sub-state regions like ‘northern balance of state’
2. Wage data by occupation
- Mean, median, ‘entry-level’, ‘experienced’, etc.
3. Staffing pattern information or occupational distribution by industry
- Very interesting data; but less material to this discussion
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SOC Manual & the BLS (cont.)- In Vermont, VDOL LMI publishes estimates on over
500+ occupations
- 45 occupations within the occupational family “Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations” (29-xxxx)
- 12 occupations within the occupational family “Healthcare Support Occupations” (31-xxxx)
- Two samples of Vermont employers (or ‘panels’) are conducted each year
- Aside from all other limitations related to BLS confidentiality standards, it takes six panels of data to produce OES estimates
- Therefore, it takes 3 years before any changes made to the SOC manual are reflected in published OES data
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SOC Manual & the BLS (cont.)- The 2000 SOC manual (and earlier) did not have
significant detail on APRNs
- Updates* related to nursing in the 2010 SOC manual:
2000 SOC 2010 SOC
29-1141 Registered Nurses29-1111 Registered Nurses 29-1150 Nurse Anesthetists
29-1160 Nurse Midwives29-1170 Nurse Practitioners
29-2061 Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses No Change
31-1012 Nursing Aides, Orderlies, 31-1014 Nursing Assistants) & Attendants 31-1015 Orderlies
* will be reflected in the May 2013 OES estimates
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SOC Manual & the BLS (cont.)
- VDOL LMI has collected 3 panels (50% of necessary 6 panels) worth of data using the new 2010 SOC code
- Estimated employment of 2,800
- Here is a preliminary breakdown of the new Registered Nurse occupational code and the three breakout codes:
Occupational Title Percent of Total- Registered Nurses 95.7% - Nurse Anesthetists 1.0%- Nurse Midwives 0.4%- Nurse Practitioner 2.8%
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Part II: Historical &
Future Trending &
Current Indicators
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VT Employment Trend: Nursing
-Above average growth rates in all three major nursing occupations- CNAs = 2.7%; LPNs = 1.3%; CNAs = 1.9% - versus 0.2% all covered employment between 1999 and 2010
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2008-2018 Long Term Occupational Projections
2008 2018
Total, All Occupations 366,236 398,373 0.8% 3,551 8,128 11,679
HEALTHCARE PRACTITIONERS AND TECHNICAL OCCUPATIONS 0 0 054 Registered Nurses 5,686 6,842 1.9% 116 99 21573 Licensed Practical & Licensed Vocational Nurses 1,547 1,834 1.7% 29 48 77
HEALTHCARE SUPPORT OCCUPATIONS 0 0 0.0% 0 0 066 Nursing Aides, Orderlies, & Attendants 2,893 3,452 1.8% 56 29 85
due to
Growth
due to
Net Replace
ment Total
Rank (based
on annual growth rate) Job Title
Employment
Annual Growth
Rate (compound
avg)
Annual Job Openings
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Online Job Postings Aggregate New England Data ~ Feb 2010 – Oct 2011
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Online Job Postings: Nursing
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Conclusions: Nursing- SOC changes will produce more data on nursing
- Nursing occupations have experienced stronger than average growth over the last decade
- Current long term projections expect that to continue
- However, online job posting data does indicate a slow down in demand for healthcare occupations and specifically nursing over the last 18 months
-Please note: Analysis on ‘real-time’ data has been problematic and should be consulted in the context of other data sources
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Questions?
Thank you
Contact Information:Mathew J. BarewiczVermont Department of Labor5 Green Mountain Dr.Montpelier, VT 05601-0488Phone- (802)[email protected]: www.vtlmi.info