trends in industry and occupational data workforce development council nov 2012 mathew barewicz...

Trends in Industry and Occupational

DataWorkforce Development

Council Nov 2012Mathew Barewicz

Vermont Department of LaborEconomic & Labor Market Information Chief

Labor Market Information online at VTLMI.info

Who/What is ‘LMI’?The Economic & Labor Market Information Division

~ housed in the Vermont Department of Labor

~ affectionately referred to as LMI

~ state partner to the federal government

= 100% federally funded

Purpose:

- to produce, explain and disseminate economic data for the benefit of the State of Vermont, educational institutes, employers, students, job-seekers, researchers, etc…

Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

LMI Data Series & the Valued Input from

EmployersQuarterly Census of Employment & Wages – Required

Current Employment Statistics – monthly panel survey

Occupation Employment Study – 3 year managed panel survey of employers; Required

Other Studies - Fringe Benefits, Vacancy, Skills Assessment, Industry Focus, etc… OPTIONAL


Presentation Outline

PART I ~ Status of the Vermont Economy– Where we are at in the recovery

PART II ~ Occupational Projections 2010-2020– National Industry Data & Trends– Vermont Occupational Projections by Education

PART I

• Status of the Vermont Economy– Where we are at in the recovery

National Recession


Last 3 Vermont Recessions


-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

-18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36

%

Job

Losses

VT's Last Three Recessions: % Change in Jobs & Duration in Months (relative to trough of US recessions)

2008 2001 1990

Months, aligned with bottom of the recession

NBER announcing end of US recession

S

Aug '12

S

Job Growth During the ‘Recovery’Since January 2011

-Vermont doesn’t run as ‘hot’ during up-swings-Private sector leading the recovery


Vermont USTotal Nonfarm +1.6% +2.3%Total Private +2.4% +3.0%Total Government -2.0% -1.1%

*Total Gov’t includes public education

Job Growth During the ‘Recovery’

Since January 2011

VT showing strong growth in two sectors:-Professional, Scientific & Technical --- still room to grow vs. national concentration of total private (6% in VT vs. 7% in US)-Private Education ~ riding a winning horse; to what end?


Vermont USTotal Private +2.4% +3.0% Prof., Scientific & Technical

+11.9% 5.8% Private Education +7.9% +4.0%

Professional, Scientific, & Technical SERVICES in VT

-Approximately 3,000 establishments in VT classified in NAICS 541

- over 13,500 employment opportunities- Average wage across the sector of nearly $65k


Professional, Scientific, & Technical SERVICES in VT


More on NAICS 541Specialized Design includes:

- Interior, Industrial, and Graphic Design Services

Management, Scientific & Technical Consulting includes:

- Admin, General Management, HR, Marketing, Logistics, Environmental Consulting Services

Scientific Research & Development includes:

- Biotechnology, Engineering, Life Science, Social Science & Humanities R&D services

Advertising & Public Relations also includes:

- Media Buying and Advertising Material Distribution

Other includes:

- Marketing Research, Public Opinion Polling, Photographic, Veterinary Services


Part I: Conclusions

-The economic recovery = slow and uneven- Potential Risks: US ‘fiscal cliff’, international financial crises, threats of

military conflicts, etc.

-Vermont is faring better than the nation

-Professional, Scientific & Technical Services work can be done from anywhere in the world

- Requires talented workforce and adequate technology/infrastructure


PART II

• Occupational Projections 2010-2020– National Industry Data & Trends– Vermont Occupational Projections by Education

Education and training and projections

For both career exploration and policy decisions, users want to know: What is the demand for workers with

a college degree (or some other level of education)?

What training or experience is needed in different careers, in addition to formal education?

16

New education and training classification

17

Three categories of information for each occupation:

Typical education needed for entry

Work experience in a related occupation

Typical on-the-job training needed to attain competency in the occupation

■ The categories make up a typical path to entry and competency

Educational attainment by occupation

18

Occupation

Percent distribution of workers 25 years and older by educational attainment, by detailed occupation, 2009

Less than high

school diploma

High school diploma or equivalent

Some college,

no degree

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Doctoral or professional

degreeArchitectural and engineering managers 0.6 3.9 7.2 5.2 46.2 37.1 4.8

Lawyers 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.5 96.5Paralegals and legal Assistants 0.9 12.8 25.7 19.2 34.4 4.5 2.6Career/technical education teachers, middle school 0.2 0.2 2.9 2.0 46.9 44.9 3.0

Waiters and waitresses 16.6 35.5 26.7 7.0 12.5 1.4 0.4Speech language pathologists 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 8.6 87.2 2.7

Electricians 8.7 39.7 31.4 13.0 5.9 0.8 0.4

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2005-2009 5-year file.

Education and training classification

Occupation

BLS education and training assignments

Typical entry-level education

Work experience in a related occupation

Typical OJT needed to attain

competency

Architectural and engineering managers Bachelor’s degree

More than 5 years None

LawyersDoctoral or

professional degree None None

Paralegals and legal assistants Associate's degree None None

Career/technical education teachers, middle school Bachelor’s degree 1-5 years

Internship/residency

Waiters and waitressesLess than high school

diploma NoneShort-term

OJT

Speech language pathologists Master’s degree None None

Electricians High school diploma NoneApprentice-

ship19

National: % change in employment by typical entry-level education

category

20

Percent change, projected 2010-20Average, all occupations =

14.3%

National: % change in employment by typical on-the-job training

category

21

Percent change, projected 2010-20 Average, all occupations =

14.3%

National: % growth in employment for selected paths

22

Percent change, projected 2010-20Education, work experience, OJTEducation, work experience, OJT

National: % Change in Employment by Industry: 2006-

10

23

Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment

Service providingGoods producing

Total nonagricultural wage and salary growth= -1.2%

2006 Data: BLS Current Employment Statistics

National Employment by Industry: 2010

24

Thousands of wage and salary jobs

Service providing

Goods producing

National % Change in Employment by Industry:

Projected 2010-20

25

Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment

Service providingGoods producing

Total nonagricultural wage and

salary growth=

1.4%

National Employment Change by Industry

26

Thousands of jobs, projected 2010-20

National Employment Change by Industry

27

Thousands of jobs, projected 2010-20

Nat’l Construction Wage & Salary Employment

28

Millions of jobs

Nat’l Manufacturing Wage & Salary Employment

29

Millions of jobs

Vermont’s 2010-2020Occupational Projections


Fastest Growing Occupations by Growth Wage Education; 2010-2020 Projections Rate (per/hr)

Helpers--Carpenters 4.4% $13.07Personal Care Aides 3.8% $10.74Helpers--Brick & Stone Masons 3.8% $14.58Home Health Aides 3.4% $13.02Nonfarm Animal Caretakers 2.1% $12.01Septic Tank & Sewer Pipe Servicers 2.0% $15.37Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors 1.5% $13.18Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers 1.5% $20.92Hand Packers and Packagers 1.5% $11.13Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment 1.4% $11.69

Less than high school ST

EM

?




Helpers--Plumbers and Pipefitters 3.1% $13.97Welding Machine Operators 2.6% $13.75Glaziers 2.5% $15.54Brickmasons and Blockmasons 2.4% $22.58Pharmacy Technicians 2.4% $14.32 ∑Stonemasons 2.3% $21.80Industrial Machinery Mechanics 2.2% $22.09Cargo and Freight Agents 2.2% $15.03Dental Laboratory Technicians 2.2% $18.53Security and Fire Alarm Systems Installers 2.1% $23.03

High school diploma or equivalent ST

EM

?




Veterinary Technologists and Technicians 3.2% $14.64 ∑Diagnostic Medical Sonographers 2.7% $34.54 ∑Respiratory Therapists 1.9% $27.05 ∑Physical Therapist Assistants 1.6% $22.32Medical Equipment Repairers 1.5% $24.87Radiologic Technologists and Technicians 1.4% $25.36 ∑Registered Nurses 1.3% $31.35 ∑Funeral Service Managers 1.2% $28.07Construction Managers 1.1% $39.25Environmental Engineering Technicians 1.0% $18.25 ∑

Associate's degree ST

EM

?




Market Research Analysts 2.9% $26.76Interpreters and Translators 2.8% $17.96Convention, and Event Planners 2.6% $20.09Personal Financial Advisors 2.3% $41.24Cost Estimators 2.3% $27.04Health Educators 2.0% $23.93Software Developers, Apps 1.9% $38.72 ∑Software Systems Developers 1.9% $43.51 ∑Network & Computer Systems Administrators 1.9% $31.79 ∑Database Administrators 1.9% $30.63 ∑

Bachelor's degree ST

EM

?

Part II: National Conclusions

Industries Leading the Way:

- Health Care

- Personal Care & Social Assistance

- Professional & Business Services

- Construction

- not regaining all it has lost

By education category – fastest growth found in Master’s degree (21.7%)

By training category – fastest growth found in apprenticeship is the typical on the job training (22.5%)


Part II: Nat’l Conclusions (cont.)

- In 4 out of 5 occupations, openings due to replacement needs exceed the number due to growth. Replacement needs are expected in every occupation, even in those that are declining.

- Of the 30 detailed occupations projected to have the fastest employment growth, 17 typically need some type of postsecondary education for entry into the occupation.

- More than two-thirds of all job openings are expected to be in occupations that typically do not need postsecondary education for entry


Part II: Conclusions (cont.)

National trends

– low population growth

– decreasing labor force participation rates

- “Baby-boomers” now entirely in the “55+” age cohort; increasing group’s share of labor force from ~20% to ~25% in 2020

Vermont

– no population growth

– decreasing labor force participation rates (still higher than national average)


Presentation Summary

-There are lots of opportunities in the Vermont economy for workers of all educational backgrounds

- However, more skills leads to more wages

-VTLMI.info has a wealth of free information

-More information leads to better decisions


Questions?Thank you!

Contact Information:Mathew J. BarewiczVermont Department of Labor5 Green Mountain Dr.Montpelier, VT 05601-0488Phone- (802)[email protected]: www.vtlmi.info

trends in industry and occupational data workforce development council nov 2012 mathew barewicz...

Documents

vt labor market information

recovery slide

public education slide

state of vermont

vermont economy

technical services

economic recovery

vermont doesnt