The Northeast Kingdom & Vermont

Newport, VT October 24, 2014

Mathew BarewiczEconomic & Labor Market Information Division

Vermont Department of Labor

www.vtlmi.info

E&LMI: WHO ARE WE?

The Economic & Labor Market Information Division– housed in the Vermont Department of Labor– state partner to the federal government– 100% federally funded

Purpose:- to produce, explain and disseminate economic data

for the benefit of the State of Vermont, educational institutes, employers, students, job-seekers, researchers, and the general public.

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Nationwide, job losses during this recession outpace anything in recent history:

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The Great Recession: Digging out of a very deep hole

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Annual percent change in per capita GDP

United StatesVermont

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Perhaps the most troubling US trend…

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Losses in Vermont resemble 1990…

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

-18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36

%

Job

Losses

VT's Last Three Recessions: % Change in Jobs & Duration in Months (relative to trough of US recessions)

2008 2001 1990

Months, aligned with bottom of the recession

NBER announcing end of US recession

S

Aug '12

S

But recovery has been far slower

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The Burlington MSA has outpaced the state

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SO WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

- The economy is just now getting back to where it was before the last recession

- The “recovery” has not been felt by all

- And what about the NEK???

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THE RECENT ECONOMIC HISTORY OF THE NEK

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THE RECENT ECONOMIC HISTORY OF THE NEK

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THE RECENT ECONOMIC HISTORY OF THE NEK

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• But that doesn’t tell us anything…– Differences in industry composition and

occupational opportunities– Average wage is not the experience of all– Inflation– Etc…

DATA LIMITATIONS - AVAILABILITY

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of Total 2012 Covered EmploymentVermont Caledonia Essex Orleans

Private 82.5% 81.4% 61.9% 79.8%Public 17.5% 18.6% 38.0% 20.2%

of Total 2012 Covered Private EmploymentVermont Caledonia Essex Orleans

Goods Producing 20.0% 24.6% 36.7% 26.0%Service Providing 80.0% 75.4% 63.3% 74.0%

THE RECENT ECONOMIC HISTORY OF THE NEK

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Total Covered Employment% Change Since 2000

2000 2007 2013 2007 2013VT 301,722 303,438 301,596 0.6% 0.0%Caledonia 11,578 11,772 10,973 1.7% -5.2%Essex 1,795 1,397 999 -22.2% -44.3%Orleans 9,422 10,015 10,329 6.3% 9.6%US (000s) 132,019 137,936 136,368 4.5% 3.3%

% Change: Employment 2000 v. 2012

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BUT BEFORE I GO…

- A quick point about the labor force…

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Labor Force Percent Change by Age Group:

Projected 2012-2216-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65+

-13.3%

9.9%

6.3%

-9.9%

14.6%

74.4%

16

Total labor force growth= 5.5%

THE FUTURE…. MAYBE

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Low Scenario High ScenarioRegion Census Projection Projection Percent Projection Projection Percent

2010 2020 2030 Change* 2020 2030 Change*2010-30 2010-30

Caledonia 31,227 32,199 32,534 4.2% 32,336 32,752 4.9%Essex 6,306 5,974 5,480 -13.1% 5,949 5,489 -13.0%Orleans 27,231 27,424 27,008 -0.8% 28,598 29,296 7.6%Vermont 625,741 628,688 620,480 -0.8% 653,575 670,073 7.1%

Population Projections 2010-2030

E&LMI: RESOURCES Regional information Publications like the

Economic & Demographic Profile Series

Employment by Industry data; Including breakdowns by county and by size of firm

Employer Database – publicly* available, searchable directory of employers

*(not VDOL data)

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Questions….& Thank you!

Mathew BarewiczEconomic & Labor Market Information Division

Vermont Department of Labor802.828.4153

www.vtlmi.info