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    The Mixed Message From

    Consumer India

    By

    Avinash Kumar Singh

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    Even though the world has justdiscovered it, the India growth

    story is not new. It has beengoing on for 25 years old

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    What is the India story?

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    1) Rising GDP growth

    % average annual GDP growth

    1900 1950 1.0 1950 1980 3.5 1980 2002 6.0 2002 2010 8.3

    Sources: 1900-1990: Angus Maddison (1995), Monitoring the World Economy, 1990-2000:Census of India (2001), 2000-2010 Finance Ministry

    India Story

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    2) Population growth is slowing

    % average annual growth

    1901 1950 1.0 1951 1980 2.2 1981 1990 2.1 1991 2000 1.8 2001 2010 1.5

    Sources: 1900-1990: Angus Maddison (1995), Monitoring the World Economy, 1990-2000:Census of India (2001)

    India Story

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    % 1950 17

    1990 52 2000 65 2010 80

    Source: Census of India (2001)

    3. Literacy is risingIndia Story

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    % Million People

    1980 8 65

    2000 22 220

    2010 32 368

    4. Middle class is explodingIndia Story

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    1980 46%

    2000 26%

    2010 16%

    1% of the people have been crossing poverty lineeach year for 20 years. Equals ~ 200 million.

    5. Poverty is decliningIndia Story

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    6. Productivity is risingIndia Story

    30% to 40% of GDP growth is due to rising productivity

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    (US$ ppp)

    1980 1178 2000 3051

    Source: World Bank

    7. Per capita income gains

    India Story

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    8. India is now the 4th largest

    economy

    India Story

    And it will cross Japan between 2012

    and 2014 to become the 3rd largest

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    THE INDIA MODEL ISUNIQUE

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    DRIVERS OF GROWTH

    India East and S.E. Asia

    Domestic Exports

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    DRIVERS OF GROWTH

    India East and S.E. Asia

    Domestic Exports Services Manufacturing

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    DRIVERS OF GROWTH

    India East and S.E. Asia

    Domestic Exports Services Manufacturing Consumption Investment

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    DRIVERS OF GROWTH

    India East and S.E. Asia

    Domestic Exports Services Manufacturing Consumption Investment High tech, capital Low tech, labour intensive industry intensive

    industry

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    Reasons for Success

    Indias success is market led

    whereas Chinas is state induced.The entrepreneur is at centre of

    the Indian model

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    Rise of globally competitive Indian companies:

    Reliance, Jet Airways, Infosys, Wipro, Ranbaxy, Bharat Forge, Tata Motors, TCS, Bharati, ICICI and HDFC Banks

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    Public space is a problem

    + Dynamic democracy

    + Free, lively media and press - Poor governance - High subsidies High fiscal deficit - No money for infrastructure

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    The worlds economic centre of gravity isshifting-away from the established,

    wealthy economies of Europe, Japan, andNorth America and towards the AsiaPacific

    India is one of the fastest-growing large

    economies in the world. Over the last 15 years India has changed

    much faster than many predicted.

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    The Indian Consumer Is Rapidly

    Transforming

    Outlook From Traditional to Modernized Traditional

    Paradigm Shift in almost all aspects of life

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    Expected Utility from Products/

    Services From Functional to Lifestyle

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    Eating habits From traditional meals to Indianised McDonalds

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    Value From Merely Price, to Benefit /Effort (Price+Time + Convenience)

    Saving time is moreimportant than

    savinga few Rupees - 51%

    Id rather havemore

    time than money -47%

    I like to shop,

    butdo not havetime - 47%

    I shop closest tomy home/office -

    59 %

    Source : Consumer Outlook

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    Buying a TV set- Factors

    Early ninetiesOne, availability; two, price; and, three,

    picture quality Mid-nineties, the efficacy of an exchange scheme and the

    number of channels a company offered

    Todaysophistication -one of the fastest growing

    segments of the market is high-end flatTVs

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    As Indians have grown richer, they havebegun to spend more on vehicles, phones,

    and restaurants, according to recentresearch on consumption patters byDeutsche Bank.

    C l i

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    Complete utilisation of space in traditional outlets

    THANK YOU

    ConclusionConclusion