use of emissions & other data reported within the lrtap convention in the iiasa gains model...
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Use of emissions & other data reported within the LRTAP Convention in the IIASA GAINS model
Z.Klimont ([email protected]) Center for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)
Emission Inventory Compilers and Users Workshop13th May 2013, Istanbul, Turkey
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Typical IIASA-GAINS model use
• Understanding/reproducing reported emissions,
• Projecting emissions, • Assessing mitigation potential,• Calculating control costs,• Assessing impacts and searching
for cost-optimal strategies considering constraints/targets
• In all elements listed above we benefit from your and other stakeholders’ work and collaborate with other EMEP centers
Emissions, costs
time
Baselineemissions
Mitigation potential
Controlcosts
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PM (BC, OC)
SO2 NOx VOC NH3 CO CO2 CH4 N2OHFCsPFCsSF6
Health impacts: PM (Loss in life expectancy)
O3 (Premature mortality)
Vegetation damage: O3
Acidification
Eutrophication
Climate impacts: Long-term + + + +
Near-term forcing +/- - +/- + - +
Black carbon deposition +
The RAINS model(Regional Acidification Information and Simulation)
The GAINS multi-pollutant/multi-effect framework (Greenhouse gas and Air pollution INteractions and Synergies)
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Central question for policy makersExample: Revision of European air quality policy
To what level should the emissions of air pollutants be reduced in the year 2020?
– Where will emissions and effects be in 2020 without further policies?
– What reductions are technically feasible?– How much do they cost? – optimal/non-optimal– Who (which countries) pays?– How much are they willing to pay?– Who benefits?– Is it enough?– Is it fair?
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Scope for further environmental improvements in the UNECE area: 4(6) effects
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
YOLLs O3 deaths Acidification,forest area
Acidification,AAE all
ecosystems
Eutrophication,ecosystems
area
Eutrophication,AAE all
ecosystems
Imp
act
ind
icato
r in
20
20
rela
tive t
o 2
00
0
PRIMES MTFR Scope for measures National MTFR Scope for measures
Closing the gap
Expected achievements of current policy; relative to 2000
Scope
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Results of GAINS analysis for TSAP (EU Thematic Strategy for Air Pollution):
Health impacts PM2.5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Base
line
MTF
R-EU
Base
line
MTF
R-EU
Base
line
MTF
R-EU
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2020 2025 2025 2030 2030M
illio
n YO
LLs
TSAP target for 2020: -47%
Baseline implies ~5 months shortening of statistical life expectancy after 2020
Additional MTFR measures could save ~55 million years of life ofEuropean population
2010
2020 CLE
2030 MCE
Years of life lost
Loss
in s
tatis
tical
life
exp
ecta
ncy
(mon
ths)
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Results of GAINS analysis for TSAP (EU Thematic Strategy for Air Pollution):
Emission reductions in central scenario: NH3
-45%
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
GER
M
CRO
A
SKRE
SPAI
FRAN
POLA
HU
NG
AUST
ITAL
PORT
CZRE
LITH
CYPR
ESTO
UN
KI
LUXE
BELG
ROM
A
SLO
V
LATV
GRE
E
MAL
T
SWED
BULG
FIN
L
DEN
M
IREL
NET
H
EU28
NH
3 re
ducti
ons r
elati
ve to
bas
elin
e
Other NH3 sourcesSheep and GoatsAgricultural Waste burningPoultryNon-Dairy CattleDairy CattlePigsUrea Fertilizer
Key measures:• Efficient (‘low emission’) application of urea fertilizer• Low nitrogen feed (pigs, dairy cows, poultry)• Low emission application of livestock manures; liquid and solid• Closed storage of manures and new low emission housing (pigs, poultry)
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PM (BC, OC)
SO2 NOx VOC NH3 CO CO2 CH4 N2OHFCsPFCsSF6
Health impacts: PM (Loss in life expectancy)
O3 (Premature mortality)
Vegetation damage: O3
Acidification
Eutrophication
Climate impacts: Long-term + + + +
Near-term forcing +/- - +/- + - +
Black carbon deposition +
The GAINS multi-pollutant/multi-effect framework (Greenhouse gas and Air pollution INteractions and Synergies)
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Co-control of GHGs and air pollutantsAnnex I parties of UNFCCC, 2020
Source: IIASA GAINS http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
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Considering co-emission of pollutants at technology level results in different mixes (ratios) of pollutants depending on chosen strategy
Example: Mitigation potentials in 2030 in in two scenarios developed in UNEP (2011) study
-100%
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
CH4 CO NOx VOC PM2.5 BC OC OtherPM2.5
SO2
Em
issio
n r
ed
ucti
on
re
lati
ve t
o b
aselin
e in
20
30
Emission reductions from
the chosen 16 measures all other 2000 measures
Source: IIASA GAINShttp://gains.iiasa.ac.at
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BC emissions in the EU-27, baseline, relative change and thousand tons [total] Source: GAINS model
2005 2010 2020 20300%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
OtherTransportDomestic combustionTotal
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FINN GFED
McCarty (Agr) McCarty (Crop)
Courtesy of Jessica McCarty, Michigan Tech Research Institute
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Incomplete wish list… for discussion in the afternoon?
• National vs international databases: how to improve consistency, e.g, non-commercial fuelwood use,
• How to improve spatial allocation of some sources, e.g., inland navigation
• TFEIP repository of national, often not peer-reviewed, studies?
• More regular involvement of remote sensing and inverse modelling community,
• Strengthen collaboration with other regional and global inventory activities (developers and users), e.g. MACCity, GEIA, HTAP, etc.
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More details and background available from:
• General GAINS policy portal:http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/MitigationofAirPollutionandGreenhousegases/Overview.en.html – GAINS model: http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
• UNECE Gothenburg Protocol revision work– http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/index.php/policyapplications/gothenburg-protocol-
revision
• Review of the EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP); towards revision of National Emission Ceiling Directive (NECD)– http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/index.php/policyapplications/tsap