NebojNebojšša Nakia NakiććenovienoviććInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xxxx

Technische Universität WienTechnische Universität Wien xxxxnaki@iiasa.ac.atnaki@iiasa.ac.at

Congress on Climate Change, Plenary Session (Theme 3) on Reducing the Risks of Congress on Climate Change, Plenary Session (Theme 3) on Reducing the Risks of Climate Change: Opportunities for Mitigation, CopenhagenClimate Change: Opportunities for Mitigation, Copenhagen — 11 March 2009— 11 March 2009

Towards Complete DecarbonizationTowards Complete DecarbonizationThe World in TransitionThe World in Transition

NakicenovicNakicenovic ##22 20092009

World Primary EnergyWorld Primary Energy

0

100

200

300

400

500

1850 1900 1950 2000

Pri

ma

ry E

ne

rgy

(E

J)

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Renewable

NuclearMicrochip

Steammotor

Gasolinetube

Commercial Nuclear

Television

aviation

engine

engineElectric

Vacuum

energy

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Global Mean Temperatures are RisingGlobal Mean Temperatures are Rising

100 0.0740.018

50 0.1280.026

Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,200

6, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,200

0

Period Rate

Years /decade

● Sustainable access to energy and foodSustainable access to energy and food

(a prerequisite for reaching MDGs)(a prerequisite for reaching MDGs)

● Security and reliability of systems Security and reliability of systems

● Deep CODeep CO22 and GHG reductions and GHG reductions

● Investment in R&D and deploymentInvestment in R&D and deployment

● Climate, Economy, Investment CrisesClimate, Economy, Investment Crises

Global Change ChallengesGlobal Change Challenges

NakicenovicNakicenovic ##55 20092009

Food for a Week, Darfur Refugees, ChadFood for a Week, Darfur Refugees, Chad© 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY

Source: Menzel, 2005Source: Menzel, 2005

NakicenovicNakicenovic ##66 20092009

Food for a Week, GermanyFood for a Week, Germany© 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY

Source: Menzel, 2005Source: Menzel, 2005

Two Faces of the AthropoceneTwo Faces of the Athropocene

Astronaut Sunita WilliamsAstronaut Sunita Williams

NakicenovicNakicenovic ##88 20092009

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Pou

nd

s (2

000

£)/ m

lum

en-h

ours Gaslight

Kerosene-light

Electric-light

0

50

100

150

200

250

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950

Tri

llio

n lu

men

-hou

rs

Electric-light

Gaslight

PricePrice

Energy serviceEnergy service

The Example of LightingThe Example of LightingThe Example of LightingThe Example of Lighting

0

50

100

150

200

250

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950

Tri

llio

n lu

men

-hou

rs

Electric - light

Gaslight

United KingdomUnited Kingdom

Source: Fouguet and Pearson, 2003Source: Fouguet and Pearson, 2003

NakicenovicNakicenovic ##99 20092009

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

EJ

Renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Global Primary Energy – A2rGlobal Primary Energy – A2r

NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1010 20092009

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

EJ

Renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Global Primary Energy – B1Global Primary Energy – B1

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Surface Temperature Change AOGCM projections for illustrative SRES

scenarios

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Long-Term Stabilization Profiles

~$100/tCO~$100/tCO22

A2A2

B1B1

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Glo

bal w

arm

ing

(oC

)

A2A2

B1B1

B1 B1 450450

Vulnerability of Key SectorsVulnerability of Key SectorsAustralia and New ZealandAustralia and New Zealand

NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1414 20092009

Global Mitigation ChallengesGlobal Mitigation ChallengesSignificant mitigation potential by 2030 at Significant mitigation potential by 2030 at

carbon price up to about $100/tCOcarbon price up to about $100/tCO22

(~$370/tC (~$370/tC ≡ ≡ $50/bbl)$50/bbl)

Technological change essential for reducing Technological change essential for reducing mitigation costs and increasing potentialsmitigation costs and increasing potentials

““Upfront” investments reduce longer-term Upfront” investments reduce longer-term mitigation costs and increase potentials mitigation costs and increase potentials

Investment in RD&D and diffusion reduce Investment in RD&D and diffusion reduce mitigation costsmitigation costs

NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1515 20092009

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

75%

85%

95%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

CO2 emissions in 2050 (GtCO2)

Pro

bab

ility

of

stay

ing

bel

ow

2ºC

(21

00)

A2

2050 Emissions and2050 Emissions andProbability of 2CProbability of 2C

Based on Forest et al CS PDF

Optimaltarget

Feasibilityfrontier

Not attainableeconomically

less

desirable

Source: RiahiSource: Riahi, et al.,et al., 2008 2008

NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1616 20092009

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

75%

85%

95%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

CO2 emissions in 2050 (GtCO2)

Pro

bab

ility

of

stay

ing

bel

ow

2ºC

(21

00)

A2

2050 Emissions and2050 Emissions andProbability of 3CProbability of 3C

Not attainable

economically

less

desirableOptimaltarget

Feasibilityfrontier

Pro

bab

ilit

y o

f st

ayin

g b

elo

w 3

ºC (

2100

)

Based on Forest et al CS PDF

Source: RiahiSource: Riahi, et al.,et al., 2008 2008

NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1717 20092009

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1430 1390 1090 970 820 670 590 520 480 450

ppmv - CO2 Equivalent

Sh

are

[%

]

203020502100

*) maximum temperature change over the 21*) maximum temperature change over the 21stst century assuming 3 century assuming 3C climate sensitivity climate sensitivity

2.0oC*3.0oC4.0oC4.5oC

Share of Carbon-Free EnergyShare of Carbon-Free Energy

NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1818 20092009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1430 1390 1090 970 820 670 590 520 480 450

ppmv - CO2 Equivalent

bill

ion

US

$9

0

2000203020502100

Energy Supply InvestmentsEnergy Supply InvestmentsSupply Side OnlySupply Side Only

*) maximum temperature change over the 21*) maximum temperature change over the 21stst century assuming 3 century assuming 3C climate sensitivity climate sensitivity

2.0oC*3.0oC4.0oC4.5oC

NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1919 20092009

*) maximum temperature change over the 21*) maximum temperature change over the 21stst century assuming 3 century assuming 3C climate sensitivity climate sensitivity

2.0oC*3.0oC4.0oC4.5oC

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1430 1390 1090 970 820 670 590 520 480 450

ppmv - CO2 Equivalent

bill

ion

US

$9

0

2000203020502100

Energy Systems InvestmentsEnergy Systems InvestmentsSupply Side and End UseSupply Side and End Use

NakicenovicNakicenovic ##2020 20092009

Government R&D in IEA countriesGovernment R&D in IEA countries in billion US$ (2006)in billion US$ (2006)

Source: Source: DoornboschDoornbosch, et al.,et al., 2008 2008

NakicenovicNakicenovic ##2121 20092009

History of US Federal Government R&DHistory of US Federal Government R&D

JFK ApolloProgram

Carter EnergyProgram

Reagan “Star Wars” Program

Homeland Security

NakicenovicNakicenovic ##2222 20092009

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*

Bank lending to energy-sector and total bank lending to emerging marketsBank lending to energy-sector and total bank lending to emerging markets

Energy sector bank lending

Total bank lending

$ billions

* As of September

Energy is one-third of total Energy is one-third of total international bank financing international bank financing

Source: World Bank, 2009Source: World Bank, 2009

● The magnitude of the change required in the global energy system will be huge

● The challenge is to find a way forward that addresses simultaneously climate change, security, equity and economics issues.

● Paradigm change is needed: radical improvements in energy end-use efficiency, new renewables, advanced nuclear and carbon capture and storage.

● Needs to be globally integrated but with maximum support of countries and local levels.

● In the best spirit of science: fact-based and peer-reviewed

23

www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.orgTowards a more Sustainable Future

IIASAIIASAInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Confronting the Challenges of Energy forConfronting the Challenges of Energy for Sustainable Development: Sustainable Development:

The Role of Scientific and Technical AnalysisThe Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis

and its international partners presentand its international partners present

www.www.GlobalEnergyAssessmentGlobalEnergyAssessment.org.org