usda agricultural outlook forum 2017 · 2.3 million tons of food annually 27 distribution centers...
TRANSCRIPT
Meat-ing the challenge: expanding integrated protein supply chains across Asia Marcos JankVice President, Corporate Affairs & Business DevelopmentBRF Asia-PacificSingapore
USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum 2017Livestock and Poultry Luncheon
2
BRF from farm to fork: an integrated supply chain for maximum safety
Largest Brazilian buyer of corn and soy meal
Genetics expertise
14,000 contract farmers
Integration:sanitary control and larger productivity
34 units in Brazil
16 units overseas: Europe, Argentina, UAE, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, HK, Turkey
2.3 million tons of foodannually
27 Distribution Centers
2,300 items (SKUs)
Technical Assistance
Genetics
Feed
Processing Distribution
Domestic mkt
International mkts
More than 240,000 points of sales
Present in 120 countries in 5 continents
Contract Farmers
Comprehensive and integrated chain, from farm to fork
8th biggest food company in the world (US$ 12 billion market cap)
#1 chicken exporter in the world (14% of the world total)
#1 Halal poultry company in the world (by volume)
# 1 agri-food company in Brazil (US$ 12 bn net sales in 2014)
4th largest Brazilian exporter5th largest brazilian employer company (115,000 employees)
Top of Mind brands in Brazil, Argentina and Middle East
Listed on NYSE and Bovespa BM&FListed on the 100 most innovative companies in the world by Forbes
Superior corporate governance and Investment Grade by Moody’s/S&P/Fitch
3
UAE (Abu Dhabi)
• BRF’s largest international plant• US$160 million FPP plant supplying UAE and GCC countries• Originally built with 72,000 MT/year capacity, with expansion plan
to over 100,000 MT/year by end 2016• Employs 1,400 workers
• JV with SATS • Value-added processing, as well as distribute BRF brands (Sadia
and Perdigao) to retailers, food service and ship chandlers
• BRF acquired the #3 largest chicken exporting company in Thailand for US$ 360 million
• Fully integrated operations: feed mill, slaughterhouses and processing plants
• Offers strong expertise in cooked chicken products
Malaysia
• Halal hub platform for BRF to export to regional and global halal markets
• Leverage Malaysia’s strong halal positioning and sophisticated consumer base to innovate for the halal world
• JV with PPB (Wilmar) for FPP production
Mode of set-upDetails Country
BRF’s production footprint in Middle East and Asia:
Greenfield(Nov 2014)
JV(Apr 2015)
Acquisition(Dec 2015)Thailand
Singapore
JV(Dec 2016)
Moving East Strategy: domestic market trade investments local presence innovation
4
Uneven distribution of consumption and resources
One dot represents 100,000 people
51% of world’s population19% of GDP18% of available land23% of renewable water
51% of world’s population19% of GDP18% of available land23% of renewable water
Consumption(% world)
28% poultry20% beef31% dairy37% sugar
Consumption(% world)
28% poultry20% beef31% dairy37% sugar
SOUTH AND SOUTH-EAST ASIA: Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Honk Kong, India, Indonesia, Lao, Macao, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, East Timor, Vietnam
5
MEATS - Per Capita Consumption (kg per capita/year)
Source: USDA, OCDE
4 8 10 11
25 27 31 32 35
47 51 53 55 57
61 64 67
73
97 100
107
116 Poultry Beef Pork
6
-300-250-200-150-100
-500
50100150200250
SouthAmerica
NorthAmerica
East Europeand Russia Oceania West Europe
LeastDevelopedCountries Africa Middle East Asia
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Note: “Million tonnes equivalent” for cereals, oilseeds, animal proteins, biofuels and cotton. Source: OCED and FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025
World Food Security (1990-2025)Net intra-regional trade
Food supluses and deficits
7
Food chains: different drivers, different speeds
Elaboration: BRF (Marcos Jank). LDC: Least Developed Countries.
• Labor intensive agriculture
• High number of verysmall farms
• Self-sufficiency policy• Social concerns:
inflation,urbanization
• Labor intensive agriculture
• High number of verysmall farms
• Self-sufficiency policy• Social concerns:
inflation,urbanization
Food Security Safety & Quality Value AddedValue Added New Trends
• Quality• Healthy & safe food• Global players• Value chain
coordination• Consolidation• Economies of scale• Traceability
• Variety and branding• Differentiation• Taste• Labeling• Speed to market• Convenience• Food service• Infrastructure
• Variety and branding• Differentiation• Taste• Labeling• Speed to market• Convenience• Food service• Infrastructure
• Individualized & emotional needs
• Environment issues• Animal welfare• “Buy local”• GM/antibiotics free • Organic, veggie, bio• Land use changes
• Individualized & emotional needs
• Environment issues• Animal welfare• “Buy local”• GM/antibiotics free • Organic, veggie, bio• Land use changes
Productivity Integrated food chains SegmentationCustomization
EuropeUS
JapanSingapore
AfricaIndia
Myanmar
BrazilThailandMalaysiaMexico
ChinaRussiaLATAM
8
-125
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
(US$ Billion)
Source: WTO. Note: China: Mainland China + Hong Kong + Macau
Top global trade surpluses and deficits in the agri-food sector
Brazil
ArgentinaAustraliaUSA
Korea
Japan
China
9
0
5
10
15
20
25US$ Billion
EU (21%)
China (24%)
Asia ex-China (20%)
LAC (9%)
Others (5%)
Mid East (8%)USA (7%)Africa (7%)
Brazilian Agri-Food Export Destinations
Source: MAPA (Agrostat).
1010
Evolution of Food Self-Sufficiency in China
38
58
71
75
79
89
98
105
49
85
107
91
96
100
101
100
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110
Soy
Cotton
Corn
Sugar
Dairy
Beef
Pork
Poultry
2005 2020 2030 2050
Agr
icul
ture
Live
stoc
k
Sources: from Strategic Agricultural Development Research Panel of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Roadmap for China’s Agro-technology Development up till 2050, Science and Technology Press, Beijing, 2009.
11
China’s receptivity to the top agri-commodity exports (based on tariffs or access)
% indicated = Tariff rates faced by Brazil into China; Nil = no exports in 2015. Source: TradeMap using UN ComTrade data
Free access Restricted Highly Restricted
Wood pulp
Coffee
Sugar (50%)Soybeans
Wheat Rice
Chicken(14%)
Beef(12%)
Pork(18%)
Corn(54%)
No imports
Cotton
12
Market access for animal protein more complex than feed
Limited
Closed
OpenChicken: Access remains an issue in Asia
Note: Assessment of market access based on tariffs and NTMs for frozen chicken and soybean meal
Soybean: free access
Open Limited Closed
Sources: 1. USDA reports on Livestock & Poultry, Grains and Oilseeds (2014 data) 2. OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014.Note: For soybeans, crush volume is approximated for consumption volume.
97
23
21
15
15
3
46
30
14
13
11
6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Soybeans
Soybean meal
Beef
Corn
Chicken
Pork
World
Asia
% imports/consumption
Value per tonne (USD):• Grains 300 a 500 • Meats 2.000 a 5.000
13Sources: USDA annual GAIN reports, 2006-2015, TradeMap trade data derived from UN ComTrade
5.52%
6.78%
6.20%5.87%
3.39%
3.97% 3.85%
4.43%
3.65%
3.20%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
% Import/ Consumption in China (by volume) Year Soybeans2006 66%2007 76%2008 71%2009 82%2010 81%2011 73%2012 77%2013 80%2014 82%2015 87%
Increasing import access into China for soybeans and beef, but decreasing for poultry. Access for meats remain very low.
Corn
14
Refrigerator Ownership x Meat ConsumptionGrowth of household refrigerators ownership is favouring the consumption of perishable products, including meat
Fonte: Rabobank, FAO, OCDE. Elaboração: M. Jank BRF
3 611 16
10
40 44
2
14
28 42
21 14
2
2
3
7
5
6
39
24
33 33
58
88
98 98
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
India Indonesia Philippines Vietnam China Singapore Brazil
Beef
Pork
Chicken
% Household with refrigerator
15
Top priority issues is a challenging trade-off
How to achieve?
…with import restrictions and self-sufficiency policies?
Food Security Food Safety & Quality
AffordabilityLow Inflation Sustainability
Trade is still very limited… New protectionism: tariffs and subsidies complex non-tariff barriers
Trade: economic efficiency and sustainability
Feed (grains) vs. Animal Protein better carbon/water/energy footprints
16
Conclusions
AGENDA OLD NEWDrivers Food security Food safety, quality, value added, new trends
Relationship CommoditiesSpot markets
Contracts, traceability, certification, private standardssustainability (water & carbon footprint, climate change),
Markets Traditional/wet refrigeration, modern retail, food service, QSR, brands
Geographies Developed countries
Emerging economies: Asia, East Europe, Africa, LAC
Trade WTOMega-regionals
Bilaterals (spaghetti bowl) and strategic partnerships“New” mercantilism
Protectionism Tariffs andTRQs
Complex Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs): sanitary (SPS), technical (TBT), burocratic (plant approvals), environment
Food companies
Commodity exporters
Consolidation, local players in 3rd countriesglobally integrated supply chains