İnsani Gelişme Raporu 2011

Sürdürülebilirlik ve Eşitlik:Herkes için daha iyi bir gelecek

Shahid NajamBM Türkiye Mukim Koordinatörü ve

UNDP Mukim Temsilcisi

İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi2 Kasım 2011

/undpturkiye /undpturkiye

Human Development Report 2011 Sustainability and Equity:

A better future for all

Shahid NajamUN Resident Coordinator and

UNDP Resident Representative in Turkey

Istanbul Bilgi University2 November 2011

/undpturkiye /undpturkiye

Sequence of Presentation

• HD Concept

• Sustainability and Equity

• S&E trends: Impact on Human Development

• Paradigm Shift

• HDI and Turkey

• Message of the report

The Concept and its Evolution

• “People are the real wealth of a nation; human development is a process of enlarging people’s choices.” (1990)

• “Human Development is the expansion of people’s freedoms to live long, healthy and creative lives; to advance other goals they have reason to value; and to engage actively in shaping development equitably and sustainably on a shared planet. People are both the beneficiaries and the drivers of human development, as individuals and in groups.” (2010)

• “Sustainable human development is the expansion of the substantive freedoms of people today while making reasonable efforts to avoid seriously compromising those of future generations.” (2011)

How to calculate Human Development Index

Components• Life Expectancy at Birth

• Expected years of Schooling• Mean Years of Schooling

• Gross National Income Per Capita

Environmental and inequality trends threaten

human development progress

Why equity and sustainability?

How can we….

Maintain progress in ways that are equitable and that do not harm the environment?

Meet the development aspirations of poor people worldwide?

Promote policies that will advance both equity and sustainability?

Environment and Climate Change

Global temperatures are rising: Now average 0.75°C higher than at the beginning of the 20thcentury.

Sea level is rising: 20 centimeters higher today than in 1870

Likelihood of natural disasters is increasing: Average number per year doubled over 25 years

Loss of forest cover threatens livelihoods and biodiversity: Low HDI countries experience greatest losses (11%)

Impact on the Poor: Household level

By 2050, the global HDI would be:

19% higher than it is today.• Largest increase in developing

countries (24%).• 44% for Sub-Saharan Africa and

36% for South Asia.

8% lower in an environmental challenge scenario.• 12% for South Asia and Sub-

Saharan Africa.

15% lower in an environmental disaster scenario.• Dramatic impact on developing

countries• 24% for Sub-Saharan Africa and

22% for South Asia.

Environmental trends threaten human development progress

Inequalities generate losses on human dev’t and threaten future progress

Our Inequality-adjusted HDI reveals losses of 23% of HDI globally.

Health and education disparities are narrowing, but income inequality is worsening. • Average country-level income inequality increased around 20 percent over

1990–2005.

Higher levels of gender inequality (GII) is associated with lower levels of sustainability.• Meeting unmet need for family planning could cut carbon emissions by

about 17% by 2050.

1.5 billion people lack electricity, 2.6 billion lack access to basic sanitation.• If current trends continue, more people will lack access to modern energy

in 2030 than today.

Negative impact on poor households

Education:

• Environmental challenges constrain both enrolment and progress of enrolled children.

Livelihoods:

• Significant risks for 350 million people who rely on forests for subsistence and incomes.• Similarly for 45 million (6 million are women) that fish for a

living. Health:

• Indoor air pollution kills 11 times more people in low HDI countries• Each year 3 million children under age 5 die from

environment-related diseases.

The Paradigm Shift

Change the development model towards more sustainable production and consumption patterns

Clean and safe environment – a right not a privilege.• Promote more inclusive participation in governance and policy-making by

those most vulnerable to environmental hazards.

Meeting development aspirations of poor people while preserving the environment. • Promising examples of win-win policies exist at the national level.

The scale of the challenge demands massive simultaneous investment and innovation.

For a macro shift, we need global innovations

Current development finance is insufficient and with unequal access (countries and sectors).

New financing sources: Currency Transactions Tax• Feasibility of implementation and growing high-level support

Reforms for greater equity and access to finance.• State role in catalyzing private resources• “Deal-flow” climate facilities to help local actors with the complex

requirements to access climate finance• National climate funds to promote blending of resources

For a macro shift, we need global innovations

Swift implementation of UN Universal Energy Access Initiative.• Global campaign• Removing barriers to technology diffusion • Support of National low-emission, climate-resilient

development strategies.

Achieving this would increase CO2 emissions by only 0.8%• Estimated annual investment is less than an eighth of annual

subsidies for fossil fuel.

2011 Human Development Report Indices and Turkey

Human Development Index 2011

• 2011 Human Development Index covers record 187 countries and territories, puts Norway at top, DR Congo last.

• Norway, Australia and the Netherlands lead the world in the 2011 Human Development Index (HDI).

• The Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger and Burundi are at the bottom of the Human Development Report’s annual rankings of national achievement in health, education and income.

• The United States, New Zealand, Canada, Ireland, Liechtenstein, Germany and Sweden round out the top 10 countries in the 2011 HDI.

Turkey’s Human Development

•Turkey’s HDI value for 2011 is 0.699—in the high human development category—positioning the country at 92 out of 187 countries and territories.

• Between 1980 and 2011, Turkey’s HDI value increased from 0.463 to 0.699, an increase of 51.0 per cent or average annual increase of about 1.3 per cent.

Turkey’s Human Developmentsince 1980

Life expectancy at birth

Expected years of

schooling

Means years of

schooling

GNI per capita

(2005 PPP $)

HDI value

1980 56.5 7.0 2.9 5,595 0.463

1985 60.1 7.8 4.0 6,332 0.518

1990 63.1 8.4 4.5 7,683 0.558

1995 66.1 9.2 4.8 8,210 0.588

2000 69.5 10.3 5.5 9,260 0.634

2005 72.1 11.2 6.1 10,840 0.671

2010 73.7 11.8 6.5 11,841 0.696

2011 74.0 11.8 6.5 12,246 0.699

Turkey’s Human Developmentcomparison

HDI value

HDI rank

Life expectancy at birth

Expected years

of schoolin

g

Mean years of schoolin

g

GNI per

capita (PPP US$)

Turkey 0.699 92 74.0 11.8 6.5 12,246

Serbia 0.766 59 74.5 13.7 10.2 10,236

Azerbaijan 0.700 91 70.7 11.8 8.6 8,666

Europe and Central Asia

0.751 — 71.3 13.4 9.7 12,004

High HDI 0.741 — 73.1 13.6 8.5 11,579

Inequality and HDIs• The IHDI equals the HDI when there is no inequality across people.

• It represents the actual level of human development.

• The new Gender Inequality Index (GII) reflects women’s disadvantages in three dimensions – reproductive health, empowerment, and economic activity

•MPI identifies multiple deprivations in the same hhs in education, health and standard of living.

•Individuals living above the income poverty line may still suffer deprivations in education, health and other living conditions.

Turkey’s Inequality-adjusted Human Development comparison

IHDI value

Overall Loss (%)

Loss due to inequality

in life expectancy at birth (%)

Loss due to

inequality in

education (%)

Loss due to

inequality in

income (%)

Turkey 0.542 22.5 12.8 27.4 26.5

Serbia 0.694 9.5 8.3 9.9 10.3

Azerbaijan 0.620 11.4 20.6 8.3 4.5

Europe and Central Asia

0.655 12.7 11.7 10.7 15.7

High HDI 0.590 20.5 12.4 18.9 28.2

Turkey in Gender Inequality Index (GII)

GII valu

e

GII Ran

k

Maternal

mortality ratio

Adolescent

fertility rate

Female seats in parliame

nt (%)

Population with at least

secondary education

(%)

Labour force participation

rate (%)

Female

Male

Female

Male

Turkey 0.443 77 23 39.2 9.1* 27.1 46.7 24.0 69.6

Azerbaijan

0.314 50 38 33.8 16.0 65.4 61.9 59.5 66.8

Europe and Central Asia

0.311 — 29 28.0 13.4 78.0 83.3 49.7 67.8

High HDI 0.409 — 51 51.6 13.5 61.0 64.6 47.8 75.0

Turkey in Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI)

MPI valu

e

Headcount (%)

Intensity of

deprivation (%)

Population

vulnerable to poverty

(%)

Population in

severe poverty

(%)

Population below

income poverty line

(%)Turkey 0.02

86.6 42.0 7.3 1.3 2.7

Serbia 0.003

0.8 40.0 3.6 0.1 0.1

Azerbaijan 0.021

5.3 39.4 12.5 0.6 1.0

Prescriptive Recipe:

• Development aspirations of poor to be met in a framework of global and local sustainability

• an incremental approach is not enough; A macro shift is needed

•Promoting human development requires addressing sustainability.

• This can and should be done in ways that are equitable and empowering

Find Human Development on the Net

For free downloads of the 2011 Human Development Report:

hdr.undp.org

Soft copies including a Turkish summary at UNDP Turkey’s website:

undp.org.tr

Follow us on Twitter and Facebook:

/undpturkiye

Thank you!Teşekkürler!

2011 İnsani Gelişme Raporu

Shahid NajamBM Türkiye Mukim Koordinatörü ve

UNDP Mukim Temsilcisi

/undpturkiye /undpturkiye

İnsani Gelişme Raporu 2011

Sürdürülebilirlik ve Eşitlik:Herkes için daha iyi bir gelecek

Shahid NajamBM Türkiye Mukim Koordinatörü ve

UNDP Mukim Temsilcisi

İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi2 Kasım 2011

/undpturkiye /undpturkiye