understanding the characteristics and future projections

Won-Tae Kwon

CH Cho, HJ Baek, HS Kang and KO Boo

National Institute of Meteorological Research

Korea Meteorological Administration

Climate Change Research in NIMR

Copyright©2012.NIMR 2

Global Climate Scenario Regional Climate

Scenario Impact/Vulnerability

Assessment

GHG and Aerosol

Emission Scenarios

Global Climate Model (Earth System Model)

Regional Climate

Model

Statistical

Downscaling

• Natural disasters

• Water management

• Natural ecosystem

• Sea level – coastal

• Agriculture

• Fishery

• Forestry

• Health

• Energy

• Industry

• Building

• Infra structure

• Large urban centers

• Insurance

• Transportation

Mean and seasonal changes, Natural variability,

Detection and Attribution, Physical processes and feedbacks,

Uncertainties, Changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation,

Regional changes, Changes in extreme events,

Dangerous and abrupt climate change

Observation

Monitoring

Policy Response:

Adaptation &

Mitigation

• Temperature

• Precipitation

• Humidity

• Wind

• Cloud

• Greenhouse gas

• Aerosol

• Radiation

• Sea temperature

• Sea level

• Glaciers, snow

• Ecosystem

• Soil temp./moisture

• Surface flux

• Proxy data Scientific Understanding and Analysis

Outline

• Observational changes in Korea

• Results of future climate projection

– Global climate projection

– Regional climate projection

• Working with IAV communities

• Future plan: ACE model & Carbon tracker

• International collaborations

– CORDEX-EA activities


Observational Change in Korea

4

Based on six observational station data in Korea. - Temperature: warming of 1.8℃ for 1911-2010 (~20%, urbanization)

- Precipitation: increasing trend (+217 mm) with multi-decadal variation

Copyright©2012.NIMR

Changes in Heavy Rainfall & Season


Changes in Season - summer 3.44 months, winter 3.63 months [1912-1921] vs. [2001-2010]

Heavy Rainfall Events - 1973-2011, 61 stations (KMA) - P > 80 mm: 110 172 days - P > 150 mm: 16 31 days [1973-1982] vs. [2002-2011]

5

Summer Precipitation

y = 0.405x + 361.05

y = 1.5383x + 559.86

y = 0.4115x + 242.77

y = -0.1158x + 102.16 0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

MAM JJA SON DJF (average of 6 stations)

6 Copyright©2012.NIMR

Number of days with precipitation ≥ 50 mm in July

0 1 2 3 4 5

Pre

cip

itatio

n (

mm

) in

Ju

ly

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

r = -0.976 **

(Lee et al., 2011)

July rainfall & heavy rain events (R>50 mm)

r = 0.976**

Summary of Climate Change in Korea


Temperature +

Summer day +

T_min + T_max +

Freezing day -

Winter day - Frost -

Winter season - Summer season +

Precipitation +

Rain Day -

Rain Rate +

Heavy Rain +

Lightning +

Relative Humidity -

Fog Day -

Visibility +

Cloudiness -

Early Spring Blossom

Less Heating Energy

Late Autumn Leaves

More Cooling Energy

Tropical night +

Wind - Sea Surface Temp +

Sea Level +

★ significant level is different at different locations extremely significant highly significant trend but not significant

★

★

★ ★

★

National Climate Change Scenario


National Climate Change Scenarios

2009-2012 resolution 150 km

240 years (1860-2100)

RCP 3.0, 4.5, 6, 8.5

Earth System

Model

2009-2012 resolution 12.5km/50km

150 years (1951-2100)

RCP 4.5, 6, 8.5

Regional

Climate Model

Global Climate Change Scenario

Validation and Analysis

Regional Climate Change Scenario

Validation and Analysis

Analysis of

Climate Change Prediction and Extremes

Improvement of

Scientific Understandings

Assessment of

Climate Change

Greenhouse gas, Aerosol + Land use

IPCC Greenhouse Gas Scenarios

CMIP5

CORDEX

RCP: Representative Concentration Pathway CO2 = f(population, economy, energy efficiency, non-CO2 energy, etc.)

CO2 emission Radiative forcing

CO2 Emission & Radiative Forcing


HadGEM2-AO (N96/L38)

동서: 1° 남북: 1°～1/3°

Ocean grid

Atmosphere grid

EW: 1 deg

NS: 1~1/3 deg

HADCM HADGM INGV4 INM30 IPSL4

MIROH MRICM MIROM

GFD20 GFD21 GISSA GISSH GISSR

CSR30 CSR35 ECHM5 ECHOG FGOAL

BCM21 C3T47 C3T63 CCSM3 CNRM3

Ensemble

PCM11 HadGEM2

Method: Reichler and Kim (2008) based on 31 variables

Climate Model Evaluation


Global Temperature Projection


Multi-model Projection

Temperature Precipitation


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Sea Level & Arctic Sea Ice Change

Copyright©2012.NIMR

Temperature and Precipitation

Surface Air Temperature

Precipitation

OBS GCM RCM

OBS GCM RCM

Observation Historical Run RCP4.5 (RCM) RCP4.5 (GCM) RCP8.5 (RCM) RCP8.5 (GCM)


Temperature

Precipitation

Analysis GCM (135 km) RCM (12.5 km)

Regional Downscaling


New National Climate Scenario


New National Climate Scenario

RCP8.5 Global projection

2050/2100

2.3/4.8

3.2/6.0

34/90

Korea projection 2050/2100

3.2/6.0

15.6/20.4

27/78

Temp(oC)

Precip(%)

Sea level (cm)

RCP8.5 (No Action) Local terrain Land-use change

Downscaling Project in Korea

MM5 (SNU) WRF (SNU) RSM (YU) RegCM4

(KNU)

Regional Climate Projection

with Uncertainty Assessment

Statistical

Downscaling

(KNU)

Observation

(KMA)

CORDEX-Asia Data Center Data Center for Climate Projection DB

Capacity Building for APEC Countries

Policy

Maker Adaptation

Fields Public


Ensemble Method based on PEA - Bias, Correlation, and RMSE -

Precipitation Surface Air Temperature

4 RCMs driven by ERA-interim LBC forcing (1989-2008)


Data needs from Users

• Data provided since 2006 – AOGCM, RCM, SDM; digital data, time series, maps – Water, agriculture, forestry, health, local governments – Over 100 cases

• Communication with users – Workshops, Joint research, Survey

• New National Climate Scenario will be provided to users.

User Temporal Spatial Period Scenario

Agriculture Month > 5 km 2010-2040, 2010-2100 A2>B1>A1B

Forestry Day, Month 10 km; > 10 km 1971-2030, 1971-2100 A2>B2>A1B>B1

Water Hour, Day > 10 km 1971-2100, 1971-2050 A2>B1>A1B

Health Day, Month 50 km 2010-2015, 2000-2050 A1B>B1>A2

Geography Day >10 km 1990-2050, 1990-2100 A1B>A2>B1

Local Gov Day 25 km 2010-2040, 2000-2100 A1B>A2>B1


PRIDE: PRISM based Downscaling Estimation Model


Working with IAV Communities

• Data provided since 2005 – AOGCM, RCM, SDM; digital data, time series, maps

– Water, agriculture, forestry, health, local governments

– Over 200 cases

• Communication with users –User Workshops, Joint research, Survey

–yearly/monthly/daily; temp., precip., humidity, wind etc.


ACE Model Framework

• ACE (Advanced Climate and Earth System Model) – 1st ESM framework by 2011; 2nd phase during 2012-2016

– Global and regional model evaluation

1st Phase (2008-2011)

Climate Test-bed for outsourcing

Atmos.

(UM) Coupler

Ocean-Sea

Ice (MOM4) Land

Aerosol Sulfur

Carbon

Cycle

UM-regional

2nd Phase (2012-2016)

Stabilization/Optimization

Advanced Modules

Chemistry, DVGM, etc.

High-resolution

Global (~50 km) / Regional (~10 km)

National Climate Change Scenario

Decadal Prediction System

Climate Change

Monitoring

Climate

Variability

Climate Change

Mechanism

Climate Change

Impact Assessment

<Outsourcing R&D>

Carbon Tracker


Concentration change (ppm yr-1) Natural emission change (gC m-2 day-1 yr-1)

Wild fire emission change (gC m-2 day-1 yr-1) Fossil fuel emission change (gC m-2 day-1 yr-1)

CORDEX

• Proposal to WCRP at WGCM-12(Paris, 2008)

• Formal endorsement by WCRP (Dec. 2008)

• Formation of TFRCD (Dec. 2008)

• Definition of CORDEX Phase I (2009)

• Series of Meetings - Toulouse (‘09.02), Lund (‘09.05), Lille (‘10.06), Trieste (’11.03)

• TFRCD is to

• Evaluate and improve regional climate downscaling models and techniques

• Provide a coordinated set of RCD-based projections/predictions over regions worldwide for use in impact assessment/adaptation studies

• Facilitate communication with the impact/end user community and involvement of the research community from developing countries.


CORDEX-EA Component

Initiation of CORDEX-Asia Group (Lille, June 2010)

First meeting on the CORDEX-EA (Jeju, September 2011)

Second meeting on the CORDEX-EA (Jeju, September/October 2012)

International Workshop on CORDEX-EA WHO: 50 scientists from 8 countries WHAT: Discuss issues for high-resolution

regional climate projection for EA region and to share experiences and research progresses

WHEN: 22-23 September, 2011 WHERE: Jeju, Korea


Participating Groups

• China • Contacts: Shuyu Wang (Nanjing University) • Activities: CORDEX, RMIP • Models: WRF, RegCM

• Japan • Contacts: Kazuo Kurihara (MRI), Koji Dairaku (NIED) • Activities: CORDEX, RMIP • Models: NHRCM, RAMS, RegCM

• Korea • Contacts: Won-Tae Kwon (NIMR), M.-S. Suh (Kongju Nat’l Univ.) • Activities: CORDEX, RMIP • Models: NHRCM, RAMS, RegCM

• Russia • Contacts: Igor Skolink (MGO)

• Philippines • Contacts: Faye Cruz (Manila Observatory), Thelma Cinco (PAGASA)


CORDEX-Asia Data Center

Fast Network Massive Storage Web Interface CORDEX data

CORDEX-Asia Data Center


• Expected to start service in March 2012. • Initial archives are core and tier-1 variables (~ 50TB) • Open to scientific and public usage

China

Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CMAS), CMA

Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), CAS

Peking University

Japan

Meteorological Research Institute (MRI)

National Institute of Environmental Sciences (NIES)

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Earth Observation Research Center (EORC)

Mongolia

National Agency for Meteorology and Environment Monitoring (NAMEM), IMH

Summary • Annual mean temperature over Korea increased about 0.18oC per

decade during last 100 years due to global warming and urbanization. Precipitation increased at a rate of 21.7 mm per decade but with large decadal-scale variability.

• The results of extreme analysis show less cold extremes and more warm extremes, and more frequent and intense heavy rainfall extremes. Summer becomes longer while winter, shorter.

• The National Climate Change Scenario based on the RCPs has been developed by NIMR, including global and regional projections.

• Changes in the frequency, intensity and timing of extreme events could cause significant damages to the human and natural systems. Regionally/locally tailored risk management and adaptation is necessary to cope with future climate change.

• NIMR has been actively participating in the World Climate Research Programme, including CMIP5 and CORDEX. The on-line service of the CORDEX-Asia Data Center will be available soon.

• Ongoing Research: ACE model and Carbon Tracker


understanding the characteristics and future projections

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