texas population, characteristics, trends, and projections · 2013. 5. 23. · source: texas state...

2013 Texas

SDC/BIDC

Conference for Data

Users

May 22, 2013

Austin, Texas

Texas Population, Characteristics,

Trends, and Projections

Percent Change

Due to

Year* Population

Numerical

Change

Percent

Change

Natural

Increase

Net

Migration

1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- --

1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 24.2 93.91 6.09

1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 16.9 86.74 13.26

1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 27.1 41.58 58.42

1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 19.9 65.85 34.15

2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8 49.65 50.35

2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6 54.94 45.06

2012 26,059,203 913,642 3.6 52.05 47.95

* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the

U.S. Census Bureau.

Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.

Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2012

2

Total Estimated Population by County, 2012

3 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2012 Population Estimates

Along and east of I-35:

40% of land

85% of population

92% of population growth (2011-2012)

Legend

POPESTIMATE2012

71-10,000

10,001-50,000

50,001-100,000

100,001-500,000

500,001-1,000,000

1,000,001-4,253,700

Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010

4 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Census Counts

Legend

co48_d00

'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010

-3,200 - 0

1 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 700,000

79 counties lost

population over the

decade

Change of the Total Population by County, 2010 to 2012

5 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2012 Vintage.

96 counties lost

population over the

two year period

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

popchg4201072012

LT 0

1-1,000

1,001-20,000

20,001-80,000

80,001-161,252

Of counties that lost population

90% had net out migration

47% had natural decline

The 10 Fastest Growing Metro Areas Increase from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012

6

Percent Increase

1. Midland, Texas 4.6

2. Clarksville, Tenn.-Ky. 3.7

3. Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla. 3.6

4. The Villages, Fla. 3.4

5. Odessa, Texas 3.4

6. Jacksonville, N.C. 3.3

7. Austin-Round Rock, Texas 3.0

8. Casper, Wyo. 3.0

9. Columbus, Ga.-Ala. 2.9

10. Manhattan, Kan. 2.8

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012

The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric Increase from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012

7

Numeric Increase

1. Harris, Texas 80,005

2. Los Angeles, Calif. 73,764

3. Maricopa, Ariz. 73,644

4. Dallas, Texas 45,827

5. San Diego, Calif. 38,880

6. King, Wash. 35,838

7. Travis, Texas 34,381

8. Orange, Calif. 34,017

9. Tarrant, Texas 32,997

10. Clark, Nev. 32,833

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013

8 http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html

Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Un

der

1 y

ear

4 y

ears

8 y

ears

12

yea

rs

16

yea

rs

20

yea

rs

24

yea

rs

28

yea

rs

32

yea

rs

36

yea

rs

40

yea

rs

44

yea

rs

48

yea

rs

52

yea

rs

56

yea

rs

60

yea

rs

64

yea

rs

68

yea

rs

72

yea

rs

76

yea

rs

80

yea

rs

84

yea

rs

88

yea

rs

92

yea

rs

96

yea

rs

10

0 t

o 1

04

…

Po

pu

lati

on

Age

White (non-Hispanic)

Hispanic

12 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

NH White Male NH White Female

13

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male

Hispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female

14



200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

NH White Male Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male

NH White Female Hispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female

15



20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

55,000,000

60,000,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Zero

.5 of 2000-2010

2000-2010

Migration Scenarios

16

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2,200,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Zero

.5 of 2000-2010

2000-2010

Migration Scenarios

17

Projected Population Growth in Williamson County, Texas 2010-2050


3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

5,500,000

6,000,000

6,500,000

7,000,000

7,500,000

8,000,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Zero

.5 of 2000-2010

2000-2010

Migration Scenarios

18

Projected Population Growth in Harris County, Texas 2010-2050


3,200

3,300

3,400

3,500

3,600

3,700

3,800

3,900

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Zero

.5 of 2000-2010

2000-2010

Migration Scenarios

19

Projected Population Growth in Donley County, Texas 2010-2050


Projected Racial and Ethnic Population (2000-2010 Scenario), Texas, 2010-2050

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

NH-White

NH-Black

Hispanic

NH-Other

20 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Projected Racial and Ethnic Population (.5 Scenario), Texas, 2010-2050

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

NH-White

NH-Black

Hispanic

NH-Other

21 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , .5 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050

22 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

F6

-6,200 - 0

1 - 2,000

2,001 - 10,000

10,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 1,000,000

1,000,001 -3,480,000

Projected Percent Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050

23 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

F5

LT 0%

0-40%

41-100%

101-250%

251-500%

Texas Population Pyramid, 2010

2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000

0-4 years5-9 years

10-14 years15-19 years20-24 years25-29 years30-34 years35-39 years40-44 years45-49 years50-54 years55-59 years60-64 years65-69 years70-74 years75-79 years80-84 years

85 +

Females

Males


Texas Population Pyramid (.5 Migration Scenario), 2050

2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000

0-4 years5-9 years


85 +

Females

Males


Texas Population Pyramid (2000-2010 Migration Scenario) , 2050

2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000

0-4 years5-9 years


85 +

Females

Males

26 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , .2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Counties and places

• averages of estimates

– ratio-correlation (births, deaths, elementary school enrollment, vehicle and voter registration)

– component-method II (births, deaths and elementary school enrollment)

– housing-unit method

27

Percent Population Change, Texas Counties, 2011-2012

28 Source: Texas State Data Center 2013 Population Estimates

Legend

'CO-EST2012-Alldata$'.pct_chg_10_11

-2.1 - 0.0 %

0.1 - 1%

1.1 - 2.5%

2.51 - 5%

5.1 - 17.7%

Discussion

• Race/ethnic allocation

• Age-Race/Ethnic-Sex

• Addition of Asian category

• Sub-county projections

29

Contact

Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530

Email: [email protected]

Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.

30

mailto:[email protected]

texas population, characteristics, trends, and projections · 2013. 5. 23. · source: texas state...

Documents