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Climate ChangeImpact on National Security

Rich EngelMaj Gen USAF (Ret.)

Director, Climate Change and State Stability ProgramNational Intelligence Council

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Objective

To provide results from a National Intelligence Assessment (NIA) on the

national security ramifications of global climate change and IC climate science

needs.

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Overview

• National Intelligence Assessment (NIA)– National Intelligence Priorities Framework– Terms of Reference– Outreach Efforts– Scope Note– NIA Process– Summary Observations– Follow-On Research

• Challenges for the Intelligence Community– Process Perspectives– DDNIA Testimony– IC Wish List

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National Intelligence Priorities Framework

Environment and Natural Resources

•Physical environment •Weather•Climate •Geography •Terrain •Urbanization

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Terms of Reference

• Develop a NIA to support– NIPF Topic Environment and Natural

Resources– Bipartisan Congressional Language

• Challenges and Opportunities– Out to 2030

• Goal was an UNCLASSIFIED report

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• An impact is significant when– Causes a noticeable – even if temporary – degradation

in one of the elements on national power• Geopolitical• Military• Economic• Social cohesion

• Directly influences the US Homeland• Indirectly influences the United States– Major military ally– Major economic partner

• Global impact indirectly consumes US resources)

Terms of Reference

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Outreach Efforts

• Joint Global Change Research Institute– Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change– Current Peer Reviewed Literature

• US Climate Change Research Program• Center for Naval Analysis• Center for International Earth Science Information

Network at Columbia University• RAND Corporation• Global Business Network• Arizona State University• Naval Post Graduate School• Center for Strategic and International Studies• Center for New American Security

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Scope Note

• The IC did not– Evaluate the science of climate change – Independently analyze underlying drivers – Assess the degree to which climate change will

occur

• The IC did rely upon – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change– Peer-reviewed research– Contracted research

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Scope Note

• In the NIA we did not address mitigation • Broke new ground by considering impact

on individual states – Limited assessment of the United

States• Briefly address economic impacts of

climate change

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NIA Process

• IC used a fundamentally different type of tradecraft• Three phase approach–Understand the Science–Get opinions of outside regional experts– Provide our judgments and analysis

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Summary Observations

• Overall we judge– Global climate change will have wide-ranging implications

for US national security interests over the next 20 years• Will aggravate existing problems—such as poverty,

social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions—that threaten state stability.

– Climate change alone is highly unlikely to trigger failure in any state

– Out to 2030 it will potentially contribute to • Intra- or, less likely, interstate conflict• Possibly over access to scarce water resources

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Summary Observations

• The United States will be less affected and better equipped to deal with climate change– May even enjoy a slight net benefit• Increased agricultural yield

– However, infrastructure repair and replacement, emissions mitigation, and emergency response will be costly

• Impacts on other states will vary– Sub-Saharan Africa is the most vulnerable region– For Africa in general• Higher rainfall anomalies and more intense and

widespread droughts are projected

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Summary Observations

• Three principle paths for GCC to impact national security– Changes in water availability – people move

– Changes in agriculture productivity – people move

– Damages to economically significant infrastructure from extreme weather events.

Movements themselves may or may not be significant to state stability -- will depend upon local circumstances.

– Change is disease patterns (human, plant, animal)

Four

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Follow-On Research

• Arctic “Geopolitical Game”

– Explore national interests of an opening Arctic

– Appropriate venue for discussion on Arctic issues

– Played in London June 2009 with 10 nations/consultants

– Arctic Council and International Maritime Organization are the preferred venues

• Identify the states most likely to have significant stress, humanitarian disasters

– Center of Naval Analysis Report provided in August 2009

– Africa hardest hit

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Follow-On Research

• Country/Region Studies

– Use three phase methodology of the NIA

• Commissioned Research on each Country/Region

• Workshops with outside experts

• IC assessment

– Six country/regions – India, China, Russia, Southeast Asia and Pacific Island, North Africa, Mexico and the Caribbean

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Follow-On Research

• Foreign Reactions to aggressive US mitigation/energy transformation decisions

– SRI Consulting Business Intelligence crafted an aggressive transition scenario to 2030

• US essentially free of non-North American fossil fuel

– Panel of experts looked at the scenario

• Crafted possible geopolitical ramifications

– Project on hold for now – we will revisit this after Copenhagen

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Follow-On Research

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Challenges for the Intelligence Community

• Collection – this is about the science– Need specificity and resolution• Below the country level – water and temperature

– What does it mean for agriculture, disease, animals, humans?

• Extreme weather events– Where, what frequency, what infrastructure at risk?

• Tipping Points (U)• Analysis – this is about state stability– How will humans react? (U)

Continued research to model social human dynamics at the individual and society level could have huge payoffs. (U)

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Process PerspectiveGlobal Business Network

GHG Emissions Approach

GHG Emissions Scenarios

Geophysical Impacts

Human Impacts

Biophysical Impacts

Political and Social Movements

Security Implications

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INFERENCE

SRES A2DATA

SRES A2

National Security Experts

Working Group II

Working Group I

Political Science

Social Science

Biological Science

Physical Science

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Testimony of DDNIA

To answer the question of national security impacts from Global Climate Change, we needed first and foremost to understand what the future climate might look like and what the physical and ecosystem impacts of change might be. For this, we were critically dependant upon open source science and, as I indicated, elected to use the IPCC reports and other peer reviewed scientific material. From an intelligence perspective, the present level of scientific understanding of future climate change lacks the resolution and specificity we would like for detailed analysis at the state level. Most of the IPCC material is based upon an understanding of how the climate may change at the global level. We require improved and better validated regional and local models (accounting for regional and local processes) of strategic climate change, particularly models that provide details on hydrological consequences and changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events.

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Testimony of DDNIA

Finally, there is a need for better information on physical, agricultural, economic, social, and political impacts from climate change at state and regional levels. This research does not necessarily require classified sources or methods and may be performed in an open and unclassified environment. From an IC perspective we do not seek to duplicate capability that exists in the open scientific community, but we will benefit from continued support for research to resolve the above issues.

From an analytical perspective, the IC examines state stability as a critical part of determining potential threats to US interests. When evaluating state stability, water shortages, disease, and the environment are considered along with other factors. The IC also considers the effects that climate change negotiations and mitigation efforts will have on the US economy, its trade goals, and its diplomatic relationships with the international community.

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Testimony of DDNIA

Near term, additional analysis is required to determine the world-wide potential vulnerability to storm tracks and severe weather. This analysis should consider changes in anticipated storm tracks and severe weather patterns, populations and infrastructure at risk, and local physical factors. In addition, detailed agriculture vulnerability should be studied; this would include anticipated changes in temperature, precipitation levels and patterns. Much, if not all, of this analysis can be performed with open source data, and much of the basic analytical work can be performed outside of the Intelligence Community by academia or non-IC components of the US Government.

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Testimony of DDNIA

Our analysis could be greatly improved if we had a much better understanding and explanation of past and current human behavior. Continued research to model social human dynamics at the individual and society level would support this improved understanding. This would necessitate the ability to integrate social, economic (infrastructure, agriculture, and manufacturing), military, and political models. Continued research in these efforts—while a significant challenge—could have high analytical payoff. In the interim, assessing the future of a society’s evolution will by necessity be a scenario-driven exercise and an imprecise science. The continued use of outside experts is critical to our success.

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IC Wish List“Work in Progress”

Objective: Improve our ability to:• Assess impacts of climate change on

nation-states and regions• Understand the adaptive capacity of

states

This enables us to better understand the issues of state stability and the impacts of climate change on the United States, our

allies, and our economic partners

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IC Wish List“Work in Progress”

• Improve climate modeling at the regional scale – to include interactions of global, regional, and local processes to include:–Temperature, –Precipitation, –Winds, –Sea ice, and –Sea level.

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IC Wish List“Work in Progress”

• Make predictions in decadal increments of physical climate with at least 60 km resolution– Residual uncertainty limited to the inherent

uncertainty of natural and human processes

• Model outputs should be statistically realistic—with know confidence levels—across a decade of time

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IC Wish List“Work in Progress”

• For water systems– Develop water supply models for rain, snow,

glacier melt, river flows, and aquifers – Improve representation of ice and glacier

melt and the near- and medium-term consequences for human settlements

– Integrated demographic projections – Consider not just annual availability but

suitability for human relevant activity – drinking, agriculture, livestock, etc.

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IC Wish List“Work in Progress”

• Use improved climate models to:– Develop agricultural models to produce

accurate production estimates for • Crops grown currently • Crops that may be substituted

– Predict changes in ocean temperature, pH, and marine life carrying capacity so as to predict changes in location and quantity of fish stocks

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IC Wish List“Work in Progress”

• For extreme weather events, model to– Provide data on expected frequency,

intensity, and duration of extreme weather events (tropical storms, tornados, severe rains, high winds, etc.)

– Predict damage to valuable infrastructure or threats to human habitation

• Model coastal inundation to understand increased vulnerability to storm surges from even modest sea level changes.

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Climate ChangeImpact on National Security

Questions?http://www.dni.gov/nic/special_climate2030.html

“The LORD God took the man and put him in the Garden of Eden to work it and take care of it”

Genesis 2:15