Tropical Storm Arthur – July 2014

40th NWA Annual Meeting Richard Okulski, NWS WFO Caribou, Maine

Tropical Storm Arthur – July 5, 2014

Overview

TimingHeadlines (Tropical Vs. Non-Tropical) Headline Considerations Impacts Best Practices/Lessons Learned Open Discussion With Emergency Management Community (April 2015)

Timing

Very Early Season Tropical Cyclone – One of the earliest on record for

Maine4th of July Weekend – Tourists near the ocean – Rogue waves/heavy surf– Emergency response staff on

vacation Busy Week Leading Up To Event – Early season heat wave (temps

in the 90s)– Severe weather on July 3rd

U.S. watches and warnings associated with Arthur on NHC Advisory 15 issued at

11 AM EDT July 4, 2014.

3

Weather Headlines

Canadian Hurricane Center Issues Tropical Storm Watches For New Brunswick and Nova Scotia During the Evening of July 3rd WFO Caribou In Consultation With NHC Issues High Wind Warnings During the Afternoon of July 4th – Collaboration between WFO and NHC started

on the evening of the 3rd– Track continued to shift west into the Bay of

Fundy– WFO issued Non-Tropical headlines with

afternoon package – Last second offer by NHC to switch to Tropical

Headlines – WFO considered switch to be too confusing

Canadian watches and warnings associated with Arthur at 5 AM EDT July 5, 2014.

4

Tropical Versus Non-Tropical?

The Canadian and National Hurricane Centers Do Not Have To Issue Consistent Headlines Along the BorderArthur Forecast To Become Post Tropical In The Bay of Fundy (Verified) Situational Awareness – Do Tropical Headlines Raise Awareness

More Than Non-Tropical Equivalents? – Do Tropical Headlines Make It Easier To

Request Resources On A Holiday Weekend?

Canadian watches and warnings associated with Arthur at 5 AM EDT July 5, 2014.

5

Impacts – Waves Highest Waves – Nova Scotia – Up to 25 Foot Heights

Wave Heights To 15 Feet Along Downeast Coast The Morning of the 5th – Long Period Swell To 14

Seconds – Significant Potential For

Rogue Waves 2 to 3 Times The Significant Wave Height (30 to 40 Feet)

Higher Than Normal Number of Tourists Near Coast For Holiday Weekend

Impacts – Wind Winds Gusts To 65 MPH Downeast Maine Wind Field Expands As Cyclone Transitions To Post Tropical On Saturday – Gusts To 50 MPH

Northeast Aroostook and Southern Penobscot Counties

Worst Warm Season Tree Damage in Washington County Since Hurricane Edna (1954) Widespread Power Outages– EMERA (19190), CMP

(3000), Eastern Maine Electric (3200)

Impacts – Heavy Rain Up to 7 Inches of Rain Fell In Washington County in 24 Hours Exacerbated Response To Wind Damage Interesting Footnote – Temperatures Aloft Were Almost

Cold Enough To Have Snow Fall Above 3000 Feet Across Eastern Maine

– If This Had Been A September Or October Event, Heavy Wet Snow Could Have Fallen

Best Practices

Issued Five Event Briefings July 3-5 Collaborated Closely With NHC And State/Local EMA Directors Stayed The Course After Issuing Non-Tropical Headlines To Avoid Confusion Provided Hourly Wind and Wave Information On July 5th During Greatest Impacts Conducted Informal Post Event “Hot Wash” With EMA Directors and Forecast Staff Via E-Mail The Following WeekVisited MEMA HQ The Following Week and Spoke With Deputy Director

Lessons Learned

Did Not Know Canadian Hurricane Center Could Issue Headlines Apart From NHC Could Have Pushed Tropical Headlines With NHC If We Knew It Would Raise Situational Awareness Tough To Time Forecast Of Expanded High Wind Field When Cyclone Transition To Post Tropical Additional Conference Calls Could Have Clarified The High Wind and Heavy Rain Impacts

Open Discussion At State EMA Conference

If A Tropical Cyclone Is Forecast To Transition To Post Tropical Near The Maine Coast, What Is Your Preference For Headlines? Feedback – Prefer Tropical Headlines Due to Greater Public

Awareness and Response – Tropical Headlines Prompts Greater Readiness For

Utility Companies – The Term “Post Tropical” Is Confusing – Implies That

Event Is Over Or Less Serious

Questions?

Courtesy The Weather Channel