trends in fresh products

8/20/2019 Trends in Fresh Products

1/37

Trends in the Marketing ofFresh Produce andFresh-cut Products

Trends in the Marketing ofFresh Produce andFresh-cut Products

DR. ROBERTA COOK

University of California Davis

Presented September 2007, updated November2007

Dollar Sales

Source:Technomic, Inc.

Quantity Sold

50.2%

49.8%

Retail Foodservice

Foodservice Retail

72.8%

27.2%

Retail Sales Equivalent, US Food System,$998.25 Billion in 2006, and Channel Shares

But 91% of fruit and 80% of veggies consumed at home (USDA).


2/37

U.S. Fresh Fruit and Vegetable* Value Chain,2006 Estimated Billions of Dollars

institutional wholesalersfood service

establishments

supermarkets andother retail outlets consumers

exports

farms shippers integratedwholesale-

retailers

produce and general-line wholesalers

farm & publicmarkets

imports

4.620.1

8.8

44.2

101.9 + 56.3

1.4Source: Estimated by Dr. Roberta Cook, UC Davis, based on numerous public sources, incl.USDA, DOC, Cornell University and PMA

*Excludes nuts

Other B$184.204

Source: Industry Size July 2007 , Technomic Inc.

Total US Food Service $513.186 Billion,Forecast, July 2007, share of dollar salesBars & Restaurants

B$328.982 B

1%

47%52%19% 11%

14%12%21%23%

Limited Service

Full ServiceBars,Taverns

RetailHosts Remainder

Travel,Leisure

Bus. & Ind.Educ.

Health-care


3/37

10.2

3.6

9.1

4.3

7.7

4.3

7.5

4.3

7.4

4.3

7.2

4.3

7.2

4.3

7.3

4.3

7.4

4.2

7.0

4.2

6.8

4.3

6.9

4.4

6.7

4.3

6.6

4.2

6.7

4.4

6.6

4.4

6.2

4.1

5.4

4.7

5.5

4.7

5.1

4.7

5.1

4.7

5.1

4.6

5.1

4.8

70 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 2001 2003 2005

Source: ERS/USDA

At-home Away-from-homeAt-home Away-from-home13.413.412.012.0 11.711.7 11.511.5 11.511.5 11.611.6 11.611.6 11.211.2 11.111.1 11.311.3 11.011.0 10.810.8 11.111.1 11.011.0

10.310.3

11.8

13.813.8

9.89.8 9.89.8

U.S. FOOD EXPENDITURES as a SHAREof DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME, 1970-2005

9.79.7 9.99.9

Ingredients to Prepare vs. Meals to Eat

10.110.1 10.210.2

New Trends in the Fresh Produce Industry• Wal-Mart is changing its fresh produce procurement

model: including more opportunity and local buys,rather than using a supplier-assigned DC approach nowthere are “dollar value assignments,” taking intoaccount food miles

• Newer entrants such as Tesco from the UK offerpotentially exciting but uncertain outlooks, privatelabel focus

• Greater shipper emphasis on brands and consumermarketing (especially using websites as a vehicle fordirect consumer communication) changes dynamics

• Disney Garden label offers uncertain potential forchanging demand


4/37

Despite differences between fresh produce andCPG’s*, produce is being asked to conform to

the protocols of CPG’s: – Fresh-cut shows the way, including brands – Channel captains emerge – Contract pricing between shippers and

buyers (both foodservice and retail) – Longer-term relationships less focused on

short-term price instability – Fees and rebates – cost to play grows – Services - data-based sales and marketing

support as well as food safety gatekeeperfunction

*Consumer packaged goods

US Supermarket Fresh Produce Sales,excludes Club stores and Supercenters, 2006

% of Dollar Sales

Dollar Sales 52 Weeks ending 8/27/2006Source: FreshLook Marketing (FLM)

SALADS8.0% TOMATOES

7.6%

BERRIES6.8%

APPLES6.7%

All Other Fruit40.8%

GRAPES6.5%

BANANAS6.0%

POTATO5.5%

MELONS4.9%

ONIONS3.7%

LETTUCE3.4%


5/37

Dollars Current 52wks

%

ChangePackaged Salads $2,726,730,752 3.4%Tomatoes $2,584,623,643 2.0%Berries $2,299,337,337 11.3%

Apples $2,269,224,192 9.0%Grapes $2,202,038,782 2.5%Bananas $2,019,269,314 5.1%Potato $1,870,296,530 13.6%Melons $1,674,382,169 12.8%Onions $1,253,271,556 4.8%Lettuce $1,166,004,589 -0.7%Total Produce $33,879,840,135 6.2%

Dollar Sales 52 Weeks ending 8/27/2006Source: FreshLook Marketing (FLM)

US Supermarket Fresh Produce Sales, excludes Clubstores and Supercenters, 2006

Consumers are trading up, contributing to higher salesin ful l service restaurants and fast casual.Consumers search for VALUE, 62% say they are“ willing to spend more time and money for betterquality food.”Foodservice fresh produce and fresh-cut demandrising. Subway’s is the #1 buyer of f resh tomatoes,McDonald’s now the top foodservice apple buyer and atop 5 foodservice buyer of spring salad mix and grape

tomatoes.Burger King Apple Fries – part of new trend towardmarketing healthier products to children

FOODSERVICE OPPORTUNITIES FOR FRESHPRODUCE – BUT YR-ROUND SUPPLY REQUIRED!


6/37

Source: U.S. Grocery Shopper Trends 2007 , FMI, 2007.

Household TypeChildren 18% 34%No children 11 24

Income Level$35-49.9K 13% 24%Over $100K 6 24

May total morethan 100% dueto rounding

Consumers Reporting Diet “ Could Be A Lot Healthier, ”by Household Type and Selected Household Income

Level, At- vs. –AwayFromHome, 2007Food At Home Away

Mom-2-momchat-room for

idea exchange

Tips & ideasto encouragekids to eatmore fruits &veggies

Recipes,shopping tips

News andinformation –

severalrotating

topics

Opt-in fornewsletter

Fruit & Veggiedatabase


7/37

Eating Out at McDonald’s Changes, in2006 in the US alone it used:

• 80 million pounds of salad greens, incl. spring mix• Plus 100 million pounds of leaf lettuce and iceberg

lettuce on sandwiches• 30 million pounds of tomatoes• 54 million pounds of apples for apple dippers and

Fruit and Walnut salad (~.5% of US apple crop)•

6.5 million pounds of grapes• 4.2 million pounds of walnuts for Fruit and Walnutsalad

Source: McDonald’s, 2006

Source: U.S. Grocery Shopper Trends 2007 , FMI, 2007.

Consumers Reporting Diet “ Could Be a LotHealthier, ” At- vs. –AwayFromHome, 2007

All shoppers 13% 27%

GenerationsGen Y 22% 44%

Gen X 12 32Baby Boomers 13 24Mature/60+ 10 18

May total morethan 100% dueto rounding

Food At Home Away


8/37

Shopper’s Eating Habits – 2007

Eat home cooked meals 78 11 7 3at home

Dine out at full-service 3 15 39 37restaurants

Eat meals at home that aren’t 3 12 38 38prepared at home – takeout

and delivery

Eat out at fast-food 2 11 31 36establishmentsEthnic meals at home or out 4 12 34 33

3+ 1-2 1-3 < thantimes times times once aPercent of Shoppers weekly weekly mo’ly month

Source: FMI US Grocery Shopper Trends 2007

Eating Patterns

• According to the Hartman Group, 88% ofconsumers believe that freshness is the key tohealth

• There is no longer any need to trade-offfreshness for convenience

• Consumers seek a consistent flavor experienceapplied to relevant flavor trends, available in aconvenient form – explains the success ofTrader Joe private label products, Muir Glen,Annie’s, etc.


9/37

Fresh Trends: Eating Out• 60% of consumers sometimes or always consider the

availability of fresh produce on menus when decidingwhere to eat out

• Just 6% of consumers never eat fresh produce whendining out

• 26% of consumers always do• 19% of those 18-39 always do• 31% of those 59 and older always do

• 20% of parents and kids 6 and under do• 28% of those with no kids do

Source: Fresh Trends as cited by The Packer, Feb. 20, 2006.

44%51%

5%

26%

69%

6%

56%

40%

4%

42%53%

5%Main Entree

SaladsVegetarian

EntreesSide Salads Fresh-Cut

Fruid Salads

Yes

No

Other

Over the past 3 months, have you purchased more...

Source: The Dining Out Menu: Consumer Thoughts about Produce , PMA, 2006.


10/37

Source: 2007: The Salad Category Report , Technomic Info. Services, 2007.

Quick Fast Fine FSCasual Food Dining Ethnic

Better variety 33 43 31 35Larger portions 21 23 19 18Smaller portions 10 13 13 9Lower prices 39 45 40 31Server suggest. 12 6 22 20

Better quality 27 41 25 27More health opt. 25 33 23 25

Options that encourage frequent salad orders,by Restaurant Type, 2007

Americans ate 208 meals prepared outside thehome in 2006, but only 81 meals/person werephysically eaten at restaurants vs. 93 in1985.127 of the 208 meals prepared outside thehome in 2006 were take-out of some sort.Today people eat 32 restaurant purchasedmeals/yr. in their cars vs. 19 in 1985.People get 57 takeout restaurant meals forhome vs. 33 in 1985.People today order 22% of restaurant mealsfrom the car, up from 14% in 1998.People buy 27 restaurant meals/person to taketo work vs. 23 in 1985.

Changing Geography of Dining Patterns!

Sources: FIR, Oct. 10, 2005; and NPD


11/37

1996

Source: FMITrends in theSupermarket2003, 2007

Sources of Takeout* Food in the US

2007

2%

38%25%

1%

16%10%

Fast-food rest. RestaurantSupermarket OtherGourmet/specialty store C-StoreDon't know Chinese/Pizza

25%12%

1%4% 48%

3%

6%

Fast-food rest.Fast-foodrest.

Restaurant

RestaurantSupermarketSuper-market

*Takeout only, not all foodservice

Chinese,Pizza

US Estimated Fresh-Cut Produce Sales,All Marketing Channels, $ Billion

Source: DoleSource: Dole

6.03.3

15.915.0

8.9

024

68

1012141618

1994 1999 2003 2005 2007Around 60% estimated to be sold via foodservice channels

Sources: IFPA,IRI, AC Nielsen; 2007

estimated by Cook

$ billion

$6 atretail


12/37

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

1/9/2005 4/19/2005 7/28/2005 11/5/2005 2/13/2006 5/24/2006 9/1/2006 12/10/2006 3/20/2007

BABY REGULAR TOTALSource: Fresh Look Marketing

Impact of the E.Coli Spinach Incident on Weekly SupermarketSales of Spinach, in $1,000, 1/9/05 through 5/27/07

FDA Spinach Advisory 9/14

Fresh-Cut Produce Retail Sales Stagnate in the Aftermath of

the Spinach E. Coli Incident in Sept. 2006

• 2005 retail fresh-cut produce sales were estimated at$6 billion, the same as in mid-2007.

• Fresh-cut fruit and fresh-cut veggies continued togrow, BUT….

• Their growth merely offset the decline in baggedsalad sales, for no net growth in the total fresh-cut

category.• This is likely the first time that has occurred since the

fresh-cut industry began.


13/37

Supermarket Growth Rates for US Fresh-Cut Segments and AllFresh Produce, 52 week $Sales ending June 30, 2007

3.9

-5.4

4.67.7

-10

-5

0

5

10

Sources: “Fresh Summit 2007 Ripe for the Picking,” Perishables Group presentation at Oct. PMA for fruit,vegetables and all produce; and Perishables Group FreshFacts® powered by Nielsen for salads.

Percent

Cut Fruit Cut Veg Salads* All Produce

Source: Perishables Group FreshFacts® powered by Nielsen.

Fresh-cut Produce Sales via SupermarketChannels, 52 week sales ending June 30,

2007, $6 Billion Total

Packagedsalads

48%Veggies*29%

Fruit 23%

Carrots=45%of vegetables


14/37

US Retail Bagged Salad Sales, by Type, 2007,*in Thousand $, and Segment Share

Source: AC Nielsen; * 52 week sales ending June 2, 2007, projected to national sales.

Fresh-cut Salads $ volume Segmentshare %

Total $2,789,403 100%Iceberg Based (IBB) 660,313 24%Romaine Based 633,288 23%Spring Mix/Specialty 420,301 15%Kits 348,463 13%Baby Spinach/Blends 205,036 7%Romaine hearts 228,984 8%

Mature spinach 116,434 4%Coleslaw 92,645 3%Butter 83,938 3%

May not sum due to rounding.

US Retail Bagged Salad Segments: $ Sales and AnnualGrowth Rates %, 2007*

$0$500,000

$1,000,000$1,500,000$2,000,000

$2,500,000$3,000,000

Total IBB Romaine SpringMix*

Kits RomaineHearts

BabySpinach

MatureSpinach

Source: ACNielsen; *52 weeksending 06/02/07.

-3.8%

+13.6%+1.4%+5.2%-10.7%

-25.0%

Number above barrepresents % change vs.prior yr.

$ Sales(1,000’s)

-2.6%

-19.2%

*Spring mix plus specialty tender greens.


15/37

Estimated US Fresh-Cut Produce/Salads Sold ViaSupermarket Channels, 52 Week Sales ending 06/30/07

• About $6 billion in total estimated fresh-cutsales.

• Fresh-cut was around 16.2% of all produce dept.sales, including 3.7% for fresh-cut fruit, 8% forsalads, and 4.5% for fresh-cut veggies.

• Random weight/bulk is 28% of fresh-cut fruit andveggie (excl. salads) dollar sales vs. 34% of

volume sales, remainder (72 and 66% respectively)is UPC/fixed weight.

Source: Perishables Group FreshFacts® powered by Nielsen.

US Value-Added Fruit Facts, 2007*• 2007 projected national retail sales of value-added fruit

were $1.4 billion.

• Value-added fruit accounts for 3.7% of supermarketproduce dept. sales.

• Packaged fresh-cut fruit growing at 8.2% in 2007,over-wrapped fresh-cut fruit by 3.7%, vs. 18% growth ratefor refrigerated jarred cut fruit.

• 33% of consumers bought fresh-cut fruit in 2007 vs. 55%for fresh-cut vegetables, excluding bagged salads ,(Perishables Group PMA Oct. 2007 presentation).

Source: Perishables Group FreshFacts® powered by Nielsen; *52 week sales ending June 30, 2007.


16/37

21%

46%

6%4%4%

9%

2%3% 6%WatermelonMixed FruitPineappleCantaloupeApplesOther Melons

GrapefruitPeachesOther

Supermarket Mix of Fresh-Cut FruitTypes: Quantity Sold, 2007*

Source: Perishables Group FreshFacts® powered by Nielsen;*52 week sales ending June 30, 2007.

Supermarket Mix of Fresh-CutFruit Types: Dollars Sold, 2007*

7%

23%

35%

6%

5%

14%

3%5% 2%

Mixed Fruits

Watermelon

Pineapple

Other

Cantaloupe

Other MelonsApples

Grapefruit

StrawberriesSource: Perishables Group FreshFacts® powered by Nielsen;*52 week sales ending June 30, 2007.


17/37

Branded Importance to US

Consumers of Fresh-Cut Fruit

Source: “Fresh Summit 2007 Ripe for the Picking,” Perishables Group, Oct. 2007.

No Preference68%

Prefer brand/will pay more

15%

Prefer brand/will not pay more

13%

Prefer store brand4%

74% of Fresh-Cut Veg ConsumersHave No Preference

27.3%3.5%

69.2%

Branded Unbranded Private Label

43%

23%

34%

2007* Supermarket Fresh-Cut Fruit and Fresh-Cut Vegetable Dollar Share by Brand Type

Fresh-Cut Fruit Fresh-Cut Veggies

Source: “Fresh Summit 2007 Ripe for the Picking,” Perishables Group, Oct. 2007; *52 week data ending June 30, 2007.


18/37

Supermarket Mix of Fresh-CutVegetables Types: Dollars Sold, 2007*

6%

19%

45%3% 3%

18%

1%2% 3%

Carrots

Mixed Veg

Mushroom

Peapods

Broccoli

Onion

Celery

Squash

OtherSource: Perishables Group FreshFacts® powered by Nielsen;*52 week sales ending June 30, 2007.

Supermarket Mix of Fresh-Cut VegetableTypes: Quantity Sold, 2007*

3%

11%

55%

3%2%

20%

5%1%

Carrots

Mixed Veg

Mushroom

Peapods

Onion

Celery

Squash

OtherSource: Perishables Group FreshFacts® powered by Nielsen;*52 week sales ending J une 30, 2007.


19/37

Growth of Fresh-Cut Veggies by Type, inQuantity Sold in US Supermarkets, 2007*

12.6%7.9%9.4%5.0%4.1%3.5%

25.5%

0%10%20%30%40%50%

A r t i c

h o k e

s

C e l e r

y

M i x

e d V e g

S o y b e

a n s

O n i o n

O t h e

r

S u g . / S

n a p P e

a

Source: Perishables Group FreshFacts® powered by Nielsen;*52 week sales ending June 30, 2007.

SALAD CATEGORY MARKET SHARES (%) 2006($ sales, 52 weeks ending Oct. 8)

Source: IRISource: IRI

Fresh Express 41Dole 31Private label 12Ready Pac 8Earthbound 6All other 2

Fresh Express 41Dole 31Private label 12Ready Pac 8Earthbound 6All other 2


20/37

U.S. M arket Shares of Fresh CutSalad Firms, Dollar Sales

*Private label share ranked third in 1999 vs. 6th in 1994.Source: IRI

Top 5 firms91.2%

Top 5 firms87.6%

Private labelshare 2.4%

Private labelshare 9.7%

Other share 6.4% Other share 2.7%

1994 1999

US Supermarket Private Label Market Share Year Dollar share Unit share

percent of total sales

1989 11.6 15.3

1995 14.9 19.4

2002 16.2 21.2

2003 16.3 21.1

2004 16.5 21.1

2005 16.5 21.3

2006 16.4 21.3

Sources: Food Institute Report, Oct. 15, 2007; Private Label , March/April various years, compiled by Ed McLaughlin, Cornell University for 1989 and1995.


21/37

Types of Fees & Services Requested

Slotting EDIVolume Rebates DisplaysNon-volume Rebates Private LabelsPromotional Ads ReturnableContainersE-commerce fees Special PacksCapital Improvements Food SafetyCertification

Category Management Case Study From“Mystery” Fresh-cut ProcessorCategory Management Case Study From“Mystery” Fresh-cut Processor

Source: DoleSource: Dole

Northeastern retailer

• ObjectiveIncrease growth and profits ata retailer that replaced acompetitive brand with _____

by implementing CategoryManagement Best Practices

• Results

Prior to ____, the retailer’sgrowth lagged behind themarket; it now exceeds marketgrowth

% growth after vs. prior

18.3% 17.9%

28.1%

9.8%

Mos. 1-6 pre-____ Mos. 12-18 since____ intro

Retailer Market


22/37

Monterey County Head Lettuce

Shipments 1990 vs 2006

Source: Monterey CountyAg Commissioner

Bulk to Process 6.9 17.40 15% 36%

Wrapped 14.2 21.85 30% 46%

Naked 26.1 8.62 55% 18%

TOTAL 47.2 47.87 100% 100%

Million Cartons* Percent ShareProduct Form 1990 2006 1990 2006

* 50 lb carton-equivalent units, maynot sum to 100 due to rounding

Monterey County Leaf Lettuce Shipments, byType, 2006 (* 50 lb carton-equivalent units)

Source: Monterey County AgCommissioner

Romaine 39.87 47%Red leaf 3.77 4%Green leaf 8.83 10%Butter leaf 1.95 2%Endive .74 1%Escarole .28 .3%Leaf/process 29.68 35%TOTAL 85.12 100%

Product Form Million Cartons Percent Share

* 50 lb carton-equivalent units, may not sum to 100due to rounding


23/37

Other Salad-Related Monterey

County Shipments, by Type, 2006

Source: Monterey County AgCommissioner

SpinachFresh 84,300Value-added 18,900Foodservice 22,300

Salad products 293,200

Spring mix 113,300Rapini 14,000TOTAL 546,000*

Product Form Tons

*Down 14% from 2005.

HeadLettuce

Romaine &Leaf

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1 9 8 5

1 9 8 7

1 9 8 9

1 9 9 1

1 9 9 3

1 9 9 5

1 9 9 7

1 9 9 9

2 0 0 1

2 0 0 3

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 7

F

L b s .

P e r

C a p

i t a

U.S. Per Capita Consumption ofLettuce, 1985-2007 F

Source: USDA/ERS, July 2007 Vegetables and Melons Situation and Outlook Yearbook

All - 29.5

18.4

11.2


24/37

05

10152025

1 9 8 5

1 9 8 6

1 9 8 7

1 9 8 8

1 9 8 9

1 9 9 0

1 9 9 1

1 9 9 2

1 9 9 3

1 9 9 4

1 9 9 5

1 9 9 6

1 9 9 7

1 9 9 8

1 9 9 9

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2

2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7 F

Carrots Bell Peppers BroccoliTomato es Cucumb er

U.S. Per Capita Consumption of Selected FreshVegetables, 1985-2007 F

Pounds per capita

F=Forecast

Source: USDA/ERS, Vegetables and Melons Situation and Outlook Yearbook, July 2007

US PER CAPITA VEGETABLE CONSUMPTION,POUNDS, 1976-2007 F

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1976 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007F

ProcessedVegetables

ProcessedPotatoes

FreshPotatoes

FreshVegetables

Source: USDA/ERS, Vegetables and Melons Situation and Outlook Yearbook, July 2007

P o u n d s

p e r

c a p i t a

1784284

127

431359

115 150

119

7649

(Excl. potatoes)


25/37

US PER CAPITA FRUIT CONSUMPTION,

POUNDS 1976-2006

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006

ProcessNoncitrus

ProcessCitrus

FreshCitrus

Fresh

Noncitrus

Source: USDA/ERS, Oct. 2007

P o u n

d s p e r c a p

i t a

27398

71

2380

263

55

29

102

78

•Time spent preparing versus shopping (i.e., how doconsumers allocate their time between these activitieson different occasions)•Style of shopping (e.g., perimeter/dart and weave,cart/basket, focused/exploratory, etc.)•Tactics consumers use at store and in the home (e.g.,collecting vs. using coupons; how and when lists are

used, etc.)•Key categories of focus by occasion•Key channels utilized by occasion•Differences between objective and emotional goals•What and/or whose goals are being served

Understanding Consumers Becomes MoreSophisticated


26/37

U.S. DEMOGRAPHIC

I NDICATORS, 2005

U.S. DEMOGRAPHIC

INDICATORS, 2005

Sources: US Bureau of Census; Food Institute Demographics of Consumer Spending 2007

117.4 million households303 million inhabitants (Sept. 2007)2.5 persons average household sizeAverage household income of $58,712Average household food spending of

$5931 (including $3,297 at-home and$2,634 away-from-home)

US Hispanic Metrics• Hispanics now represent 14% of the US population, over 41

million people• Total Hispanic buying power is expected to top $1 trillion in

2007• Hispanics make visits to grocery outlets 26 times/month vs. 9

times for non-Hispanics• Hispanics spent nearly $69.2 billion on food in 2005, of which

60% was spent on food-at-home• Berry and bagged salad sales (in heavily shopped Hispanic

supermarkets) have a contribution of 2 points below thenational ave.*

Sources: FMI El Mercado 2005, and The Food Institute Report, June 13, 2005; and Demographics of Food Spending2007, Food Institute; *Perishables Group 2007.


27/37

$186$177

$121$123

$219$210

284312

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian

US Fresh Produce Consumption by Race2005, $ Per Household

Sources: Consumer Expenditures Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics,ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/ce/standard/2005/race.txt ;ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/ce/standard/2005/hispanic.txt

VegetablesFruits

Vegetables

Veg

Fruits

Fruits

FruitsVegetables

How confident are you that the foodin your supermarket is safe?

Source: FMI Trends in the US Consumer Attitudes and the Supermarket, various years

0%

30%

60%

90%

'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '070%

30%

60%

90%

'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07

Completely or mostly confident66%


28/37

Consumers’ safety concerns related towhere food is consumed

24%

20%

23%

22%

34%

53%

58%

43%23%Eating at

Home

Shoppingfor Food

Eating Out

ConcernedNeitherUnconcerned

Source: N-Depth: Food Safety The Hartman Group, 2007.

Which food-related items constitute aserious health risk?

Source: FMI US Consumer Trends and the Supermarket, 2007

’07Bacteria or germs 49%Product tampering 43%Avian Influenza 38%Terrorist tampering 38%Residues from pesticides 37%

Antibiotics/hormones in livestock 25%Food handling in supermarkets 22%Foods produced by biotechnology 20%Irradiated foods 18% Declining since 1992

Declining since 1992

Declining since 1992


29/37

How confident are you about the overallsafety of the nation’s fresh produce?

4.844.814.61

4.84.874.694.87

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Sep-06

Oct-06

Nov-06

Dec-06

Jan-07

Feb-07

Mar-07

Apr-07

May-07

Jun-07

PMA National Consumer Surveys on Food Safety Issues, various

On a scale of 1 to 7 where 7 equals most confident

3%

56%

41%

Yes No Don't know

Are there certain types o f fresh fruits andvegetables you don’t buy?

Source: PMA Nation al Consum er Survey on Food Safety Issues, March 2007

(Leafy greens mentioned by 40% as item don’t buy now, followed by 6% for bagged produceand turnips/turnip greens and 5% for onions/green onions.)


30/37

200520062007

11938All Shoppers

Made Changes%

MadeChanges

%

Made Changes%

In the past 12 months, have you stoppedpurchasing any food products because of

safety concerns?


24215OtherN/AN/A4Green OnionsN/AN/A9Bagged saladN/AN/A16Lettuce

200520062007

N/AN/A71Spinach

12884Fruit/Vegetable(Net)

1352Seafood536415Beef/Poultry

Stop purchasing%

Stoppurchasing

%

Stoppurchasing

%Number ofShoppers

What food products did you stop purchasing?



31/37

0%20%40%60%80%

'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07

very concerned about nutritional contentmy diet cou ld be healthi er

Shoppers’ concern about nutritional content

and evaluation of diet

4372

Source: FMI Trends in the US Consumer Attitudes and the Supermarket, various years

62%

28%

4% 4% 2%Very Somewhat Not Very Not at All Don't Know

Fresh Produce: Importance of Nutritional Value



32/37

Most important product attributesinfluencing fresh produce purchases of US

consumers, 2005Attribute PercentQuality 76Price 14Organically grown 6

Country of origin 3Source: FMI US Grocery Shopper Trends 2005

87%

8% 1% 2% 2%Very Somewhat Not Very Not at All Don't Know


Thoughts about Produce: Importance of Taste


33/37

5% 2% 10%

69%

14%

A lot extra A li ttle extraNoth ing Extra Com binationDon't know

In general, how much extra would yoube willing to pay for better-tasting fresh

fruits and vegetables?

Source: PMA Consumer Perception s on Flavor and Taste, April 2007

Should fresh produce items, packages, ordisplays be labeled to identify. . .?Summary “yes” responses

Source: Fresh Trends 2002

Nutritional value 77.1%Country of origin 85.9%Chemicals used in 90.7%Organically grown 86.0%

Irradiated 77.8%Use of biotechnology 78.4%Use of waxes or coatings 84.5%


34/37

US Organic Food Sales, 1990-

2006E

(Billion US$)

0

5

10

15

20

B i l l . $

1 1. 3 1. 5 1. 9 2 . 3 2 . 8 3 . 5 3 . 6 4 . 3 5 6 . 1 7. 3 8 . 6 9 . 2 11 14 17

9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6

Sources: Organic Trade Association (OTA) , Consumer facts and market information , 4-05-2001 for1990-1996; The Food Institute Report, May 10, 2004 for 1997-2002;The Natural MarketingInstitute for 2003 and 2004; OTA Manufacturer Survey 2007, for 2005 and 2006.

E=Estimate

Estimates of 2007 US Fresh Produce Organic Retail

Sales Vary Greatly!• 2% for fruit• 3% for vegetables• 10% for bagged salads• Totaling $1.5 billion-----------------------------Or 6.2% of retail fresh produce sales or $3.5 Billion in 2006-----------------------------Or• Ca. data: $387.6 Million farmgate value for organic

fruit/veg/nut, suggesting $2Billion final value, plus sales fromimports and other states------------------------------• But this is inconsistent with OTA estimates of fruits and

vegetables representing 40% of organic food sales, or $6.8billion


35/37

Source: UC Agricultural Issues Center, Klonsky and Richter, 2007.

California Organic Agriculture by CommodityGroup, Number of Growers, 2000 – 2005

Row totals do not equal the sum of the columns because of growers in multiple categories.

1,7955051791131,29320520051,7224991771031,24821020041,757525174751,27425120031,847585194651,33226120021,925616190541,40226320011,903643186571,3652452000

Total*VegetableCrops

Nursery,Greenhouse

& Floriculture

Livestock,Dairy,

Poultry & Apiary

Fruit &Nut Crops

FieldCropsYEAR

76,500 total grow ers in Ca.

3%34%

28%35%

Demographically, the most likely to order organicsare consumers under the age of 30.

More Likely Less Likely

No DifferenceDon’t Know

More or less likely to order a fresh fruit orvegetable menu item if it is organically grown



36/37

Why consumers choose to order an organicallygrown fresh fruit or vegetable menu item

Healthier 46%Taste 24%Overall nutritional value 24%Environmentally friendly 20%Less use of chemicals 5%Recommended by friend / family 3%

Local origin / Home grown 1%Other / Don’t know / Refused 4%Source: The Dining Out Menu: Consumer Thoughts about Produce , PMA, 2006.

23%

57%

17%

3%More Likely Less Likely No

DifferenceDon't Know

If the organically grown fruit or vegetable menuitem cost 20% more than a conventionally grownitem, would you be more or less likely to order theorganic item?



37/37

trends in fresh products

Documents