Copyright 2020 Trend Macrolytics LLC. All rights reserved. This document is not to be forwarded to individuals or organizations not

authorized by Trend Macrolytics LLC to receive it. For information purposes only; not to be deemed to be recommendations for buying

or selling specific securities or to constitute personalized investment advice. Derived from sources deemed to be reliable, but no

warranty is made as to accuracy.

Trend Macrolytics, LLC

Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer

Thomas Demas, Managing Director

Michael Warren, Energy Strategist

Data Insights: Covid-2019 Monitor Thursday, December 17, 2020

The global scorecard

United States + 232,258 United States + 3,448

Brazil + 70,574 Brazil + 936

Germany + 32,744 Germany + 729

Turkey + 29,718 Italy + 680

Russia + 26,074 Mexico + 670

United Kingdom + 25,300 United Kingdom + 612

India + 24,010 Poland + 605

France + 17,720 Russia + 584

Italy + 17,568 India + 355

Poland + 12,455 France + 290

+ 488,421 + 8,909

World + 719,225 World + 13,321

Top ten 68% Top ten 67%

World

30.6 median population age

New cases New Deaths

The worst ten countries

97.453 bp of population infected

As of Dec 16

New confirmed cases

by continent

2.160 bp of population fatalities

Source: Johns Hopkins, Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations

For more information contact us: Donald Luskin: 312 273 6766 don@trendmacro.com Thomas Demas: 704 552 3625 tdemas@trendmacro.com

2

The US scorecard

New cases New Deaths New in hospital Cume cases Cume deaths Cume in hospital

CA CA CA NY NY

PA KS TX TX FL

TX NY FL CA NJ

IL AZ IL FL GA

KS NC NY NJ OH

IN TX OH IL IN

NJ FL PA PA AZ

FL PA GA MI AL

OH TN TN MA MD

AZ WA MI GA MN

All states All states All states All states All states

Top ten Top ten Top ten Top ten Top ten

Fewer daily cases Fewer new deaths Fewer new hospitalizations Most recoveries

United States

9.174 bp of population fatalities

+ 14,795

TX + 13,017

OH + 11,218

PA + 11,022

AL + 8,820

IN -194

PA -218-53

-113

-747 IA

-1,233 MI

CA

TX

TN

FL

PA

+ 688

+ 235

+ 115

+ 107

+ 9,998

+ 7,123

+ 6,208

+ 133

+ 131

+ 125

+ 76

+ 11,282

+ 252

+ 190

+ 144

+ 293

+ 123

+ 108NJ

All states

+ 140,196

+ 232,258

NY

IL

IN

MA + 5,952

+ 5,661

WA -462 NY -34 IL -186

LA

1,671,081 28,100

1,136,024 21,481

584,766 15,777

519,369 13,168

870,600 20,490

804,555 18,003

Top ten

OH -292

MI

GA

The ten worst US states

+ 1,456

+ 276

528%

89,995

59,751

44,461

38,418

33,375

31,575

31,468

29,559

23,908

19,980

402,490

488,338 11,588

484,285 11,513

1,519,340 24,394

+ 53,711

+ 18,802

Some states not reporting

+ 56

+ 53

+ 51

+ 38

+ 37 482,815 10,228

8,561,173 174,742

627,774

64%

+ 1,777

+ 278

+ 11,410

+ 10,049

38.1 median population age

514.631 bp of population infected

51% 58%

16,762,527 298,823

60%

+ 3,448

52%

-626 CO -45

Five most improved US states

OH -3,346 MO -195 NV -383

WI

Dail

y n

ew

cases a

nd d

eath

s

Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations

3

US deep-dive National and state-by-state data do not line up because of different sources

Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations

4

US deep-dive on the demographics of age, race and health

Age distribution of US cases, fatalities and case-fatality rates Cumulative

Racial distribution of US cases, fatalities and case-fatality rates

(Does not foot

with national average

due to sample error)

ComorbiditesTop-ten joint causes of Covid mortalities, cumulative For 6% of the deaths,

COVID-19 was the only

cause mentioned. For

deaths with conditions

or causes in addition to

COVID-19, on average,

there were 2.9

additional conditions or

causes per death.

Source: Distributions CDC, Comorbidities CDC, TrendMacro calculations

5

Recommended reading

Rhode Island Governor Tells Citizens To ‘Stay Home’

Before Heading To Wine Bar (edit) Jordan Lancaster

Daily Caller December 16, 2020

Fauci tells Americans not to see their kids for

Christmas Bradford Betz

Fox News December 16, 2020

Vaccines vs. Lockdowns Holman Jenkins

Wall Street Journal December 15, 2020

Why the number ‘3’ may make you rethink Covid

hysteria Simon Black

Sovereign Man December 15, 2020

FT People of the Year: BioNTech’s Ugur Sahin and

Ozlem Tureci Joe Miller and Clive Cookson

Financial Times

December 16, 2020

Vaccination Campaign at Nursing Homes Faces

Obstacles and Confusion Rebecca Robbins and Jessica Silver-Greenberg

New York Times December 16, 2020

'The most lopsided economic event imaginable':

Wave of evictions threatens Black, Latino tenants Katy O'Donnell and Janaki Chadha

Politico December 14, 2020

They Stole It Fair and Square Steven Hayward

Power Line Blog December 15, 2020

The Virus Trains: How Lockdown Chaos Spread

Covid-19 Across India Jeffrey Gettleman, Suhasini Raj, Sameer Yasir and Karan

Deep Singh

New York Times December 16, 2020

Meme of day

g

Source: Our beloved clients, and Power Line blog "The Week in Pictures"

6

The coronavirus case accelerometer… tracking the world’s infection curves

Share of infected population from first day with 100 confirmed cases, log scale

Source: Johns Hopkins, Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations

7

The coronavirus mortality accelerometer … tracking the world’s fatality curves

Share of deceased population from day of first fatality

Source: Johns Hopkins, Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations

8

“Exponential”? Our most reliable evidence of the rate of spread of Covid-2019 Vertical: days to double deaths Horizontal: days from first death Flat indicates exponential spread Declining indicates supra-exponential spread Rising indicates sub-exponential spread

Source: Johns Hopkins, Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations

9

Requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in new cases

14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low

◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst

Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations

10

Alt requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in pos tests 14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low

◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst

Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations

11

Reality-checking the models: actuals versus IHME predictions

Source: IHME, Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations

12

From Ground Zero to the Rio Grande

New York

US ex-New York

Texas523.98 bp of population infected

33.9 median population age

As of Dec 16

38.1 median population age

413.58 bp of population infected

38.2 median population age

521.05 bp of population infected

14.39 bp of population fatalities

8.73 bp of population fatalities

8.33 bp of population fatalities

Source: Covid Tracking Project,, TrendMacro calculations

13

The sun-belt hot-spot states (other than Texas)

California

Florida

Arizona

As of Dec 16

589.69 bp of population infected

38.0 median population age

42.2 median population age

422.93 bp of population infected

36.7 median population age

528.93 bp of population infected

5.36 bp of population fatalities

9.48 bp of population fatalities

10.11 bp of population fatalities

Source: Covid Tracking Project,, TrendMacro calculations

14

Patient zero… and then everyone else

China

World ex-China

As of Dec 16

28.8 median population age

119.24 bp of population infected

2.62 bp of population mortalities

0.68 bp of population infected

0.03 bp of population mortalities

37.4 median population age

Source: Johns Hopkins, Covid Tracking Project,TrendMacro calculations

15

Impact in the largest economies

Japan

Germany

France

As of Dec 16

8.83 bp of population fatalities

367.86 bp of population infected

2.84 bp of population fatalities

0.21 bp of population fatalities

15.19 bp of population infected

171.51 bp of population infected

41.2 median population age

45.9 median population age

47.3 median population age

Da

ily n

ew

ca

ses

an

d d

ea

ths

Da

ily n

ew

ca

ses

an

d d

ea

ths

Da

ily n

ew

ca

ses

an

d d

ea

ths

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

16

Impact in The Anglosphere

United Kingdom

Canada

Australia10.15 bp of population infected

37.9 median population age

As of Dec 16

287.89 bp of population infected

40.5 median population age

128.14 bp of population infected

40.8 median population age

9.75 bp of population fatalities

3.61 bp of population fatalities

0.33 bp of population fatalities

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

17

Impact in continental Europe

Italy

Spain

Switzerland

As of Dec 16

7.33 bp of population fatalities

461.64 bp of population infected

10.31 bp of population fatalities

10.91 bp of population fatalities

312.82 bp of population infected

377.80 bp of population infected

45.5 median population age

44.9 median population age

42.2 median population age

Da

ily n

ew

ca

ses

an

d d

ea

ths

Da

ily n

ew

ca

ses

an

d d

ea

ths

Da

ily n

ew

ca

ses

an

d d

ea

ths

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

18

Impact in other hot-spots

South Korea

Singapore

Sweden

As of Dec 16

41.8 median population age

8.96 bp of population infected

102.31 bp of population infected

34.6 median population age

0.12 bp of population fatalities

0.01 bp of population fatalities

40.9 median population age

344.38 bp of population infected

7.57 bp of population fatalities

Da

ily n

ew

ca

ses

an

d d

ea

ths

Da

ily n

ew

ca

ses

an

d d

ea

ths

Da

ily n

ew

ca

ses

an

d d

ea

ths

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

19

Impact in the BRICs ex-China

India

Russia

Brazil

As of Dec 16

39.6 median population age

26.8 median population age

74.27 bp of population infected

18.75 bp of population infected

1.07 bp of population fatalities

0.33 bp of population fatalities

33.5 median population age

336.07 bp of population infected

8.73 bp of population fatalities

Da

ily n

ew

ca

ses

an

d d

ea

ths

Da

ily n

ew

ca

ses

an

d d

ea

ths

Da

ily n

ew

ca

ses

an

d d

ea

ths

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

20

Impact in the Middle East and Africa

Israel

Iran

Africa (52 nations)

As of Dec 16

30.3 median population age

30.2 median population age

410.90 bp of population infected

129.22 bp of population infected

3.39 bp of population fatalities

6.02 bp of population fatalities

18.79 bp of population infected

19.7 median population age

0.44 bp of population fatalities

Da

ily n

ew

ca

ses

an

d d

ea

ths

Da

ily n

ew

ca

ses

an

d d

ea

ths

Da

ily n

ew

ca

ses

an

d d

ea

ths

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations