trend macrolytics, llc · bazi’s bolsonaro tells supporters anti-virus measures kill matthew...
TRANSCRIPT
Copyright 2020 Trend Macrolytics LLC. All rights reserved. This document is not to be forwarded to individuals or organizations not
authorized by Trend Macrolytics LLC to receive it. For information purposes only; not to be deemed to be recommendations for buying
or selling specific securities or to constitute personalized investment advice. Derived from sources deemed to be reliable, but no
warranty is made as to accuracy.
Trend Macrolytics, LLC
Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer
Thomas Demas, Managing Director
Michael Warren, Energy Strategist
Data Insights: Covid-2019 Monitor Monday, July 20, 2020
The global scorecard
US + 61,796 Brazil + 716
India + 40,425 India + 681
Brazil + 23,529 US + 415
South_Africa + 13,449 Mexico + 296
Colombia + 6,578 Colombia + 220
Mexico + 5,311 Iran + 209
Chile + 4,391 Peru + 189
Peru + 4,090 Chile + 156
Argentina + 3,223 Indonesia + 127
Saudi + 2,504 Iraq + 90
+ 165,296 + 3,099
World + 207,701 World + 3,942
Top ten 80% Top ten 79%
World
30.6 median population age
New cases New Deaths
The worst ten countries
19.103 bp of population infected
As of Jul 20
New confirmed cases
by continent
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
For more information contact us: Donald Luskin: 312 273 6766 [email protected] Thomas Demas: 704 552 3625 [email protected]
2
The US scorecard National and state-by-state data do not line up because of different sources
New cases New Deaths New in hospital Cume cases Cume deaths Cume in hospital
TX FL NY NY NY
CA AZ CA NJ FL
FL VA FL MA NJ
OH MD TX CA GA
LA GA NJ IL MD
AZ WA IL PA MA
SC AR AZ MI VA
NY OH GA FL CT
MA IN MA CT OH
WA TN PA TX IN
All states All states All states All states All states
Top ten Top ten Top ten Top ten Top ten
Fewer daily cases Fewer new deaths Fewer new hospitalizations Most recoveries
United States
+ 49
+ 42
+ 42
+ 34
+ 32
384,692 15,706
350,047 8,431
162,750 7,015
143,624 6,366
325,030 7,685
176,783 7,488
101,027 3,958
2,307,417 91,184
406,807 25,048
277,378
76%
The ten worst US states
+ 767
+ 939
82%
89,995
21,309
21,064
15,010
11,841
11,717
11,203
10,654
9,555
7,895
210,243
143,123 5,091
113,534 4,396
38.1 median population age
115.844 bp of population infected
61% 69%
3,755,968 132,918
71%
+ 523
83%
Five most improved US states
TX -2,858 AZ -116 GA -265
GA -1,438 TX
Top ten
AL
All states
+ 45,583
+ 63,907
SC
AZ
NC
TN + 1,779
+ 1,777
+ 12
+ 10
+ 434
+ 12,478
+ 9,329
+ 7,300
+ 3,116
FL
CA
TX
GA
LA
+ 340
+ 65
+ 61
+ 53
+ 2,374
+ 2,359
+ 1,820
+ 31
+ 20
+ 13
+ 49
+ 3,251
+ 89
+ 42
+ 34
+ 93
+ 90
-37 AL -198
TN -738 GA -31 FL -103
OK -707 CA -30 AZ -100
NC -661 AL -20 OK -73
TX + 3,355
OH + 806
MN + 691
WI + 624
TN + 613
Dail
y n
ew
cases a
nd d
eath
s
Source: States and test data Covid Tracking Project, US data ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
3
Recommended reading
Public Health England's exaggerated death statistics
are a scandal that has fed fear Matthew Lesh
Daily Telegraph July 17, 2020
UK pauses daily coronavirus death toll update over
data concerns Reuters
July 18, 2020
The COVID Coup Angelo Codevilla
The American Mind July 17, 2020
Brazil’s Bolsonaro Tells Supporters Anti-Virus
Measures Kill Matthew Malinowski
Bloomberg
July 18, 2020
Fauci says he’s ‘cautiously optimistic’ U.S. on track
to getting coronavirus under control Robert Schroeder
MarketWatch July 18, 2020
As $600-a-Week Jobless Aid Nears End, Congress
Faces a Quandary Eric Morath and Te-Ping Chen
Wall Street Journal July 19, 2020
Desperate Parents Pay Whatever They Can to Escape
Online Schools Marin Wolf and Leslie Patton
Bloomberg
July 16, 2020
Broken seal: Victoria investigates quarantine
breaches The Economist July 20, 2020
Meme of the day
g
Source: Our beloved clients, and Power Line blog "The Week in Cartoons"
4
The coronavirus case accelerometer… tracking the world’s infection curves
Share of infected population from first day with 100 confirmed cases, log scale
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
5
The coronavirus mortality accelerometer … tracking the world’s fatality curves
Share of deceased population from day of first fatality
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
6
Our most reliable evidence of slowing exponential growth of Covid-2019 Vertical: number of days it takes to double deaths Horizontal: days from first death
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
7
Requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in new cases
14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low
◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst
Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations
8
Alt requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in pos tests 14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low
◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst
Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations
9
Reality-checking the models: actuals versus IHME predictions
Source: ECDC, IHME, TrendMacro calculations
10
From Ground Zero to the Rio Grande
New York
US ex-New York
Texas112.10 bp of population infected
33.9 median population age
As of Jul 20
38.1 median population age
209.12 bp of population infected
38.2 median population age
109.92 bp of population infected
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
11
The sun-belt hot-spot states (other than Texas)
California
Florida
Arizona197.32 bp of population infected
38.0 median population age
As of Jul 20
42.2 median population age
97.36 bp of population infected
36.7 median population age
162.98 bp of population infected
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
12
Patient zero… and then everyone else
China
World ex-China
As of Jul 20
28.8 median population age
0.61 bp of population infected
37.4 median population age
23.26 bp of population infected
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
13
Impact in the largest economies
Japan
Germany
France
As of Jul 20
41.2 median population age
26.07 bp of population infected
45.9 median population age
47.3 median population age
2.03 bp of population infected
24.31 bp of population infected
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
14
Impact in The Anglosphere
United Kingdom
Canada
Australia
37.9 median population age
4.27 bp of population infected
As of Jul 20
40.8 median population age
40.5 median population age
48.82 bp of population infected
29.12 bp of population infected
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
15
Impact in continental Europe
Italy
Spain
Switzerland
As of Jul 20
42.2 median population age
39.21 bp of population infected
44.9 median population age
45.5 median population age
40.50 bp of population infected
55.45 bp of population infected
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
16
Impact in other hot-spots
South Korea
Singapore
Sweden
40.9 median population age
76.35 bp of population infected
As of Jul 20
41.8 median population age
2.66 bp of population infected
84.00 bp of population infected
34.6 median population age
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
17
Impact in the BRICs ex-China
India
Russia
Brazil
33.5 median population age
100.16 bp of population infected
As of Jul 20
39.6 median population age
26.8 median population age
8.34 bp of population infected
5.34 bp of population infected
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
18
Impact in the Middle East and Africa
Israel
Iran
Africa (52 nations)
As of Jul 20
30.3 median population age
30.2 median population age
56.61 bp of population infected
31.28 bp of population infected
5.23 bp of population infected
19.7 median population age
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations