Copyright 2020 Trend Macrolytics LLC. All rights reserved. This document is not to be forwarded to individuals or organizations not

authorized by Trend Macrolytics LLC to receive it. For information purposes only; not to be deemed to be recommendations for buying

or selling specific securities or to constitute personalized investment advice. Derived from sources deemed to be reliable, but no

warranty is made as to accuracy.

Trend Macrolytics, LLC

Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer

Thomas Demas, Managing Director

Michael Warren, Energy Strategist

Data Insights: Covid-2019 Monitor Wednesday, August 19, 2020

The global scorecard

India + 64,531 Brazil + 1,352

Brazil + 47,784 US + 1,324

US + 44,091 India + 1,092

Colombia + 12,462 Mexico + 751

Peru + 7,828 South_Africa + 282

Mexico + 5,506 Colombia + 247

Russia + 4,748 Peru + 177

Philippines + 4,739 Iran + 168

Iraq + 4,576 Russia + 132

Argentina + 4,557 Argentina + 127

+ 200,822 + 5,652

World + 249,649 World + 6,549

Top ten 80% Top ten 86%

World

30.6 median population age

New cases New Deaths

The worst ten countries

29.168 bp of population infected

As of Aug 19

New confirmed cases

by continent

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

For more information contact us: Donald Luskin: 312 273 6766 don@trendmacro.com Thomas Demas: 704 552 3625 tdemas@trendmacro.com

2

The US scorecard National and state-by-state data do not line up because of different sources

New cases New Deaths New in hospital Cume cases Cume deaths Cume in hospital

FL FL CA NY NY

TX GA FL NJ FL

CA SC TX CA GA

GA VA NY TX NJ

SC AZ GA FL AZ

NC OH IL MA VA

OH TN AZ IL MD

TN OK NJ PA AL

MS AR NC MI OH

PA IN LA GA MA

All states All states All states All states All states

Top ten Top ten Top ten Top ten Top ten

Fewer daily cases Fewer new deaths Fewer new hospitalizations Most recoveries

United States

+ 117

+ 100

+ 94

+ 74

+ 64 139,125 4,794

3,310,927 108,407

38.1 median population age

168.317 bp of population infected

61% 66%

5,457,824 163,595

64%

579,932 15,925

550,232 11,342

210,926 8,839

194,920 7,993

426,571 10,250

241,677 9,893

632,667 25,264

351,234

73%

The ten worst US states

+ 1,829

+ 2,273

80%

89,995

35,112

22,429

22,259

20,878

15,163

13,698

12,958

12,436

12,192

257,120

188,098 7,499

146,779 6,608

+ 1,195

71%

Five most improved US states

CA -1,833 MO -23 AL -351

KS -1,282 AL

Top ten

MS -37

CT -11 OR -34

MO -354 CT -3

AZ

All states

+ 25,834

+ 40,458

AL

NC

TN

PR + 953

+ 915

+ 33

+ 31

+ 847

+ 7,282

+ 4,636

+ 3,838

+ 1,740

TX

CA

FL

GA

IL

+ 505

+ 296

+ 294

+ 163

+ 1,357

+ 1,263

+ 1,034

+ 48

+ 39

+ 39

+ 122

+ 2,816

+ 100

+ 67

+ 55

+ 219

+ 216

-16

-382 WA

KS -14

WA -316 KS -3 WY -6

SC + 11,464

TX + 10,086

TN + 2,084

OH + 1,304

IN + 841

Dail

y n

ew

cases a

nd d

eath

s

Source: States and test data Covid Tracking Project, US data ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

3

Recommended reading

How Covid Sends Some Bodies to War With

Themselves Moises Velasquez-Manoff

New York Times August 11, 2020

The Sneaky Trick a Public Health Official Used to Make

Mask Mandates Look Super Effective Jon Miltimore

Foundation for Economic Education August 14, 2020

MN Governor Quietly Reverses Course on

Hydroxychloroquine Jon Miltimore

RealClear Politics

August 17, 2020

They Blinded Us From Science Sonal Desai

Franklin Templeton On My Mind July 29, 2020

Are consumers already living the future of health? David Betts, Leslie Korenda and Shane Giuliani

DeLoitte Insights August 13, 2020

How Trump’s Push to Reopen Schools Backfired Eliza Shapiro

New York Times August 13, 2020

Gretchen Whitmer is America's most incompetent

politician Matthew Walther

The Week

August 14, 2020

Lockdown Becomes an Australian Nightmare James Morrow

Wall Street Journal August 17, 2020

Coronavirus, Contracts and the Constitution David B. Rivkin Jr. and J. Michael Luttig

Wall Street Journal August 17, 2020

Democrat-Controlled Chicago Spent $66 Million On

A Coronavirus Facility That Treated 38 Patients—

Total Ashe Schow

Daily Wire August 15, 2020

Meme of day

g

Source: Our beloved clients, and Power Line blog "The Week in Cartoons"

4

The coronavirus case accelerometer… tracking the world’s infection curves

Share of infected population from first day with 100 confirmed cases, log scale

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

5

The coronavirus mortality accelerometer … tracking the world’s fatality curves

Share of deceased population from day of first fatality

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

6

Our most reliable evidence of slowing exponential growth of Covid-2019 Vertical: number of days it takes to double deaths Horizontal: days from first death

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

7

Requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in new cases

14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low

◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst

Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations

8

Alt requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in pos tests 14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low

◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst

Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations

9

Reality-checking the models: actuals versus IHME predictions

Source: ECDC, IHME, TrendMacro calculations

10

From Ground Zero to the Rio Grande

New York

US ex-New York

Texas189.76 bp of population infected

33.9 median population age

As of Aug 19

38.1 median population age

219.28 bp of population infected

38.2 median population age

165.08 bp of population infected

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

11

The sun-belt hot-spot states (other than Texas)

California

Florida

Arizona267.79 bp of population infected

38.0 median population age

As of Aug 19

42.2 median population age

160.12 bp of population infected

36.7 median population age

270.02 bp of population infected

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

12

Patient zero… and then everyone else

China

World ex-China

As of Aug 19

28.8 median population age

0.64 bp of population infected

37.4 median population age

35.59 bp of population infected

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

13

Impact in the largest economies

Japan

Germany

France

As of Aug 19

41.2 median population age

33.02 bp of population infected

45.9 median population age

47.3 median population age

4.66 bp of population infected

27.33 bp of population infected

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

14

Impact in The Anglosphere

United Kingdom

Canada

Australia8.59 bp of population infected

37.9 median population age

As of Aug 19

48.05 bp of population infected

40.5 median population age

32.50 bp of population infected

40.8 median population age

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

15

Impact in continental Europe

Italy

Spain

Switzerland

As of Aug 19

42.2 median population age

44.88 bp of population infected

44.9 median population age

45.5 median population age

42.19 bp of population infected

77.59 bp of population infected

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

16

Impact in other hot-spots

South Korea

Singapore

Sweden

As of Aug 19

41.8 median population age

3.10 bp of population infected

98.07 bp of population infected

34.6 median population age

40.9 median population age

84.19 bp of population infected

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

17

Impact in the BRICs ex-China

India

Russia

Brazil

As of Aug 19

39.6 median population age

26.8 median population age

20.64 bp of population infected

6.45 bp of population infected

33.5 median population age

162.64 bp of population infected

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations

18

Impact in the Middle East and Africa

Israel

Iran

Africa (52 nations)8.23 bp of population infected

19.7 median population age

As of Aug 19

30.3 median population age

30.2 median population age

108.52 bp of population infected

39.74 bp of population infected

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations