towards the kaliningrad partnership in eu-russia relations recep, 27 april 2005
TRANSCRIPT
Towards the Kaliningrad partnership in EU-Russia relations
RECEP, 27 April 2005
Area 15,100 sq. km Population 950 000 Distance from Moscow 1289 km Major cities
Kaliningrad 428 000 Sovetsk 50 000 Chernyakhovsk 43 000 Baltiysk 31 500 Gusev 28 000
Share in the RF total: Area 0,1% Population 0,7% GDP 0,4% Retail trade 0,5% Exports 0,4% Imports 3,7% FDI 0,1%
Two phases of research
Phase 1 (November 2004 – April 2005) Request from the Administration of the President, study the Kaliningrad region in the context of EU-Russia
relations, build scenarios
Phase 2 (starting April 2005) Request from the State Duma scenarios of the socioeconomic development
Phase 1: Report outline1. Introduction (Christer Pursiainen)2. Scenarios (Sergei Medvedev)
Russian Scenarios EU Scenarios EU-Russia Scenarios Kaliningrad Scenarios
3. Road Maps (Christer Pursiainen) Towards a Common Economic Space The EU-Russia Partnership Road Map The Kaliningrad Partnership Road Map
4. Legal Instruments (Mark Entin)5. Statistics and Bibliography (Marina Cherkovets)
Europeanscenarios
Russian scenarios
RE1
RE2
RE3
K1
K2
K3
Kaliningrad PartnershipKaliningrad
Road map
E1
E2
E3
R1
R2
R3
Legal instruments
Research methodology
Scenario template
StatistRegulated
LiberalGlobal
Centralized/Integrated
Decentralized/Networked
Economic axis
Poli
tica
l axi
s
Russian scenarios
StatistRegulated
LiberalGlobal
Centralized/Integrated
Decentralized/Networked
R1: Administrative Modernization
R2: Liberal Modernization
R3: Bureaucratic Capitalism
EU scenarios
StatistRegulated
LiberalGlobal
Centralized/Integrated
Decentralized/Networked
E1: Global Actor
E2: NetworkEurope
E3: FortressEurope
Russia-EU scenario matrix
Russia
Europe
Liberal Modernization
Administrative Modernization
BureaucraticCapitalism
Global Actor PartnershipMuddlingThrough
Cold Peace
Network Europe
MuddlingThrough
MuddlingThrough
Cold Peace
Fortress Europe
Cold Peace Cold Peace Cold Peace
Kaliningrad in Russia-EU scenarios
Russia
Europe
Liberal Modernization
Administrative Modernization
BureaucraticCapitalism
Global ActorKaliningrad partnership
Stagnation/Preferences
Outpost
Network Europe
Stagnation/Preferences
Stagnation/Preferences
Outpost
Fortress Europe
Outpost Outpost Outpost
Kaliningrad in Russia-EU scenarios
Russia
Europe
Liberal Modernization
Administrative Modernization
BureaucraticCapitalism
Global ActorKaliningrad partnership
Stagnation/Preferences
Outpost
Network Europe
Stagnation/Preferences
Stagnation/Preferences
Outpost
Fortress Europe
Outpost Outpost Outpost
Kaliningrad partnership
Guidelines for Kaliningrad Partnership
Integration into the European economic space Creating the institutional base of cooperation Modifying the SEZ regime Improving federal and regional governance Improving business climate and lowering administrative
barriers Development of infrastructure Export incentives Supporting small and medium business
Impact of Kaliningrad Partnership
From being a mere corollary, the Partnership can become a shaping factor of EU-Russia relations
Forward implementation of European Economic Space Adaptation by Russia of part of the acquis Improving EU-Russia compatibility through a common interface
Promoting cooperative regionality and cross-border networks
Linkage to existing regional institutions (CBSS, NCM)
Tapping into the existing EU instruments (Northern Dimension, INTERREG, ENI) without creating new institutions and ad-hoc structures
Kaliningrad Partnership Road Map• Creating a joint EU-RF list of policy priorities for Kaliningrad.
• Done in connection with drafting the third Northern Dimension Action Plan (2007-2009), e.g., in the form of ND Kaliningrad Partnership
• Connecting to regional organizations (CBSS, the Nordic Council of Ministers)• Detailing policy priorities, developing concrete projects at regional and local levels by local governments, businesses and NGOs from Kaliningrad and the larger Baltic Sea region
Securing linkage between the local and regional projects and the financial instruments: the European Neighborhood Instrument (ENI, replacing TACIS in 2007), INTERREG programs, Euroregions, IFIs (EBRD, NIB etc.)
• Establishing Kaliningrad Partnership • Project implementation• Project evaluation• New action plan for 2010-2012
2005
2006
2007
2010
2009
Legal Instruments
Comparing legal models for the development of Kaliningrad Selecting an optimal model
Various methods for legal regulation Using the newly adopted Russian legislation
Concession Law Anti-monopoly Law Tax Law Customs Law Legal regulation of Foreign Economic Activity Law on Special Economic Zones
Phase 2: Research Issues
Study of the shaping factors EU enlargement New Russian law on the SEZ (from 2006 on) The forthcoming Common Economic Space
Scenarios of socioeconomic development Desired outcomes Road maps Economic/legal instruments
Appendix: Kaliningrad Stats
Population Dynamics
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004%0
Russian Federation
North-West Federal District
Kaliningrad Region
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
%0
Russian Federation
North-West FederalDistrictKaliningrad Region
Natural change, per 1000 population (‰) Net migration, per 1000
population (‰)
Population Dynamics
Life expectancy at birth Infant mortality rate (infant deaths under 1 year per 1000 live births)
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
year
s
Russian Federation
North-West Federal District
Kaliningrad Region
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
%0
Russian Federation
North-West Federal District
Kaliningrad Region
Economy
Unemployment rate GRP index (% to the previous year)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1992 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
%
Russian Federation
North West FederalDistrictKaliningrad region
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
%
Russian Federation
Kaliningrad region
Standard of living
Changes in real monetary income, % change on previous year
Change in real wage, % change on previous year
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
%
Russian Federation
Kainingrad region
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
%
Russian Federation
Kainingrad region
Industry
Real industrial production index, % on the previous year
Goods Production Index
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1990
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
1H20
04
%
Russian Federation
Kaliningrad
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
% Energy production
Oil and gascondensatePassenger cars
TV sets
Paper
Meat
Fish and seafood
Canned fish
Investment Climate(Kaliningrad in the Rating of Investment Potential and Risk among 89 regions of the
Russian Federation)
Investment Potential Investment Risk
Rating 2003-2004 37 22
Change in rating
2003-2004 to 2003-2002
-2 -9
2003-2004 to 1998-1999
5 -17
Rating of the components
Labour potential 52 Legal risk 45
Consumption potential 58 Political risk 68
Production potential 53 Economic risk 29
Financial potential 52 Financial risk 6
Institutional potential 29 Social risk 12
Innovation potential 54 Criminal risk 72
Infrastructure potential 3 Environmental risk 36
Natural resources potential
40
Investment Climate
Real index of investment in fixed capital, % change to the previous year
Investment in fixed capital
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
%
Russian Federation
North-West Federal District
Kaliningrad region
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
1990
1995
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
%
Kaliningrad %in the RF total
Foreign Investment
Foreign investment in the Kaliningrad Region
Direct Foreign investment in the Kaliningrad Region
16
23,5
11,3
39,4
18,3 19,1
24,6
47,7
56,2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
US
D m
ln
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
%
Kainingrad region
% of the RF total
12,7
21,5
10,69,2
4,1
6,6
3,2
5,9
14
0
5
10
15
20
25
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
mln
US
D
External Trade
Machinery&parts
45%
Other goods
16%
Metals7%
Petrochemicals
8%
Foodstuffs
24%
Machinery parts
16%
Oil&oil products
51%
Other goods
22%
Wood&furniture11%
Goods structure of Kaliningrad’s import and export (first half of 2004)
Import Export
External Trade
Import and Export Dynamics in Kaliningrad Region
Trade turnover between Kaliningrad region and Lithuania in 1998–2003 (mln USD)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
mln
US
D
Import
Export 167,5
60,6 67,4
103,8
150,7
184,8
18,58,4
25,115,1 13,25 16,6
149
52,242,3
88,7
137,4
168,3186
69
92,5
118,9
163,9
201,4
0
50
100
150
200
250
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Import
Export
Balance
Turnover