total ozone data base for cost - 726 mcm 7: stockholm, september 11-12, 200 6
DESCRIPTION
Total Ozone Data Base for COST - 726 MCM 7: Stockholm, September 11-12, 200 6. Janusz Krzyścin. Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences Warsaw, Poland. Total Ozone Input Model of reconstruction of daily total ozone Examples of the reconstructed time series - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Total Ozone Data Base for COST-726
MCM7: Stockholm, September 11-12, 2006
Janusz Krzyścin
Institute of Geophysics
Polish Academy of Sciences
Warsaw, Poland
• Total Ozone Input• Model of reconstruction of daily total
ozone • Examples of the reconstructed time series• Structure of the COST-726 Ozone Data
Base
Total Ozone InputNational Institute of Water and Atmosphere Research
(NIWA), Lauder, New Zeland, Assimilated Total Ozone Data Base 1979-2004
(Bodeker et al., 2005)
Version 8 Nimbus 7 and Earth Probe TOMSGOME version 3.1KNMI TOGOMIVersion 8 SBUV from NIMBUS 7, NOAA9, NOAA 11, and NOAA 16 satellite
Dobson Stations (30°-60°N)Bias < 1% ± 2-3%
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Rel
ativ
e Diff
eren
ce
(%) (%)
AROSA (46.77oN, 9.66oE)
WARM_PERIOD: MAY-SEPTEMBER
(OzoneDOBSON - OzoneNIWA)/OzoneNIWA*100%
MEAN of DIFFERENCE = -1.35 RMS of DIFFERENCE = 2.35%
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Rel
ativ
e Diff
eren
ce
(%) (%)
LERWICK ( 60.13oN, 1.18oW)
WARM_PERIOD: MAY-SEPTEMBER
(OzoneDOBSON - OzoneNIWA)/OzoneNIWA*100%
MEAN of DIFFERENCE = 1.27 RMS of DIFFERENCE = 4.65%
Dobson-NIWA Comparison
Total Ozone Reconstruction
Two Steps Regression Model 1- Ozone(month)= Regression_A (Indices of Global Atm. Circulation,
Monthly Mean Meteo. Variables)
2. Ozone (day) - Ozone(month) =
Regresion_B( Daily Meteo Variables– Monthly Mean Meteo Variables)
Training period 1979-2004: Ozone(month), Ozone(day) from NIWA Data Base
Model Total Ozone since beginning of proxy data -1950 !
Model Ozone = Regression_A + Regression_B
Dobson-NIWA Comparison
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Rel
ativ
e D
iffer
ence
(%) (%)
AROSA
WARM_PERIOD: MAY_SEPTEMBER(OzoneNIWA - OzoneCOST)/OzoneCOST*100%
MEAN = 0.17 RMS = 3.02 %
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Rel
ativ
e D
iffer
ence
(%) (%)
LERWICK
WARM_PERIOD: MAY_SEPTEMBER(OzoneNIWA - OzoneCOST)/OzoneCOST*100%
MEAN = 0.07 RMS = 4.28 %
Dobson- Reconstructed Ozone Comparison
1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
-30-25-20-15-10
-505
1015202530
-30-25-20-15-10
-505
1015202530
Rel
ativ
e Diff
eren
ce
(%) (%)
AROSA _ COST 726 BaseWARM_PERIOD: MAY_SEPTEMBER
(OzoneDOBSON - OzoneCOST)/OzoneCOST*100%
(t<1979) (t>1978) Mean of Difference -0.26 -1.45RMS of Difference 4.09% 3.51%
1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
-30-25-20-15-10
-505
1015202530
-30-25-20-15-10
-505
1015202530
Rel
ativ
e Diff
eren
ce
(%) (%)
AROSA _ ERA-40 BaseWARM_PERIOD: MAY_SEPTEMBER
(OzoneDOBSON - OzoneERA)/OzoneERA*100%
(t<1979) (t>1978) Mean of Difference -2.65 -3.03RMS of Difference 5.24% 4.10%
Dobson- Reconstructed Ozone Comparison
1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
-30-25-20-15-10-505
1015202530
-30-25-20-15-10-505
1015202530
Rel
ativ
e D
iffer
ence
(%) (%)
LERWICK _ COST 726 BaseWARM_PERIOD: MAY_SEPTEMBER
(OzoneDOBSON - OzoneCOST)/OzoneCOST*100%
(t<1979) (t>1978) Mean of Difference 0.60 1.45RMS of Difference 7.20% 5.51%
1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
-30-25-20-15-10-505
1015202530
-30-25-20-15-10-505
1015202530
Rel
ativ
e D
iffer
ence
(%) (%)
LERWICK _ ERA-40 BaseWARM_PERIOD: MAY_SEPTEMBER
(OzoneDOBSON - OzoneERA)/OzoneERA*100%
(t<1979) (t>1978) Mean of Difference -1.14 -0.40RMS of Difference 6.57% 5.26%
Dobson- Reconstructed Ozone Comparison
1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
-30-25-20-15-10-505
1015202530
-30-25-20-15-10-505
1015202530
Rel
ativ
e D
iffer
ence
(%) (%)
OXFORD _ COST 726 BaseWARM_PERIOD: MAY_SEPTEMBER
(OzoneDOBSON - OzoneCOST)/OzoneCOST*100%
(t<1979) (t>1978) Mean of Difference 1.32RMS of Difference 6.12% N/A
1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
-30-25-20-15-10-505
1015202530
-30-25-20-15-10-505
1015202530
Rel
ativ
e D
iffer
ence
(%) (%)
OXFORD _ ERA-40 BaseWARM_PERIOD: MAY_SEPTEMBER
(OzoneDOBSON - OzoneERA)/OzoneERA*100%
(t<1979) (t>1978) Mean of Difference 1.00 N/ARMS of Difference 5.84% N/A
Dobson- Reconstructed Ozone Comparison
1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
-30-25-20-15-10-505
1015202530
-30-25-20-15-10-505
1015202530
Rel
ativ
e Diff
eren
ce
(%) (%)
UPPSALA _ COST 726 BaseWARM_PERIOD: MAY_SEPTEMBER
(OzoneDOBSON - OzoneCOST)/OzoneCOST*100%
(t<1979) (t>1978) Mean of Difference 0.10RMS of Difference 5.49% N/A
1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
-30-25-20-15-10-505
1015202530
-30-25-20-15-10-505
1015202530
Rel
ativ
e Diff
eren
ce
(%) (%)
UPPSALA _ ERA-40 BaseWARM_PERIOD: MAY_SEPTEMBER
(OzoneDOBSON - OzoneERA)/OzoneERA*100%
(t<1979) (t>1978) Mean of Difference -1.36 N/ARMS of Difference 5.78% N/A
* Model Skill *X(Model)= (Dobson-Model)/Model
Skill Coeff(Model) = Var (X(Simple))/Var(X(Model))
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
Julian Day270280290300310320330340350360370380390
270280290300310320330340350360370380390(DU)
AROSA
LERWICK
• SKILL COEFFICIENT t<1979 (EARLY DOBSON)• COST ERA-40• S E A S O N • 5-9 10-4 5-9 10-4 AROSA 2.0 2.6 1.2 1.1OXFORD 1.9 2.7 2.1 2.3LERWICK 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.1UPPSALA 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.1
SIMPLE MODEL
General Comments
Performance of the COST model (warm period) for t <1979 long-term bias ± 2%, standard dev. 3%-7%
(larger standard errors probably due to uncertainties of the Dobson measurements in cloudy conditions, see Lerwick)
COST reconstructed ozone almost equivalent ERA-40 Ozone usually bias smaller for COST but smaller standard dev for ERA-40
COST and ERA-40 model better than simplified model using constant daily ozone values derived from NIWA data
COST model = quality control tool for the Dobson ozone
COST-726 Total Ozone Data Base Area and Resolution (30°-70°N, 15°W-30°E) - area as defined by MCM6 (1°.0 (latitude)×1°.25(longitude) – as in NIWA Base)
Start and End date: Jan 1950 - Dec 1978 : COST model Jan 1979 - Dec 2004 : NIWA + COST/ERA (if no NIWA) Jan 2005 - Dec ???? : OMI on AURA spacecraft
Time Table to be completed before next MCM Meeting (December 2006)