sb ofgem presentation 7 nov final · todays forecast flows into the nts 414 mcm change in linepack...
TRANSCRIPT
Ofgem’s perspective
Sonia BrownDirector, Markets, Ofgem
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Key for this winter
Important issues for us all
No room for complacency
Ofgem working closely with industry and customers
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Wholesale Prices
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
p/th
erm
DTI industrial users Bacton Beach SAP Forward curve
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
£/M
Wh
Pool UKPX Forward curve 30-09-05
Electricity prices Gas prices
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Why increasing prices?
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What’s on the horizon?
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European and Global Market
Competition for suppliesInterconnector – GB vs continent?
LNG – GB vs global market?
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Winter prices to date
25
30
35
40
45
5003
/10/
2005
04/1
0/20
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05/1
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06/1
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01/1
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03/1
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p/th
£/
MW
h
Day-ahead electricity baseload Day ahead gas
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Winter Outlook - Gas
Average winter Severe 1 in 50 winter
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Winter Outlook – Electricity
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Winter Outlook - Gas/Electricity interaction
In average winter conditions…
required level of 0.1bcm provided by CCGT
CCGT relief to gas market
In 1 in 10 winter conditions…
1.4bcm of the required 2.2bcm provided by CCGT
In severe winter conditions…
1.8bcm of required 3.7bcm provided by CCGT
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What does this mean?
Potential need for demand side response
Contract terms will reflect costs to
customers business
Customers can contractwith suppliers for
different types of interruption
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Ofgem’s work
Information
NG’s role as residual balancer
Barriers to demand side responseOCM
Environmental restrictions
Key objective: find ‘quick wins’ in these areas for winter
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Daily Outlook Gas Day : Wednesday, 15/01/06
mcm414Todays Forecast Flows into the NTS mcm414Todays Forecast Flows into the NTS
mcm-3Change in Linepack
mcm293Predicted Closing Linepack (PCLP1)
mcm296Todays Opening Linepack
mcm-3Change in Linepack
mcm293Predicted Closing Linepack (PCLP1)
mcm296Todays Opening Linepack
DEMAND
FLOWS INTO NTS
LINE PACK
Med
High
Low
Med
LDZ
LDZ
NTS
NTS
6 ZonesNon NSL15/02/06
3 ZonesNSLfor gas day
Non-Spec. of Interruption
2 areasSpec.Likelihood
Med
High
Low
Med
LDZ
LDZ
NTS
NTS
6 ZonesNon NSL15/02/06
3 ZonesNSLfor gas day
Non-Spec. of Interruption
2 areasSpec.LikelihoodINTERRUPTION
21
4
1
Days left
380
160
200
Ave rate(GWh/day)
450 (10%)
340 (10%)
275 (10%)
Safety MonitorGWh
420
290
490
Max rate (GWh/day)
23
7
3
Days left
8790
1810
1010
14/1/06GWh
8600 (24%)
1700 (43%)
990 (57%)
15/01/06GWh
Long
Medium
Short
21
4
1
Days left
380
160
200
Ave rate(GWh/day)
450 (10%)
340 (10%)
275 (10%)
Safety MonitorGWh
420
290
490
Max rate (GWh/day)
23
7
3
Days left
8790
1810
1010
14/1/06GWh
8600 (24%)
1700 (43%)
990 (57%)
15/01/06GWh
Long
Medium
Short
STORAGE
SYSTEM ALERTS
Click here for storage monitor spreadsheet
Click here for Likelihood of interruption details
Click here for full system status report (NB92)
Click here for forecast aggregate flows report (NTSAPF)
Click here for forecast demand report (SIS03)
UPCOMING ISSUES
WINTER DURATION
15/02/0614:09
15/02/0610:09
15/02/0613:09
15/02/0614:09
15/02/0614:09
15/02/0614:09
15/02/0614:09
14/02/0618:12
15/02/0610:02
9408417Forecast Demand15/01/06
13408421Forecast Demand16/01/06
-10
Variance(mcm)
Actual Demand 397
Demand(mcm)
40714/01/06
SND(mcm)
9408417Forecast Demand15/01/06
13408421Forecast Demand16/01/06
-10
Variance(mcm)
Actual Demand 397
Demand(mcm)
40714/01/06
SND(mcm)
Definitions
Linepack Graph
Click here for system alert history
Definitions
Definitions
Definitions
Definitions
Definitions
1. Information summary page
‘Gas Balancing Alert’
2. Information resilience
3. Storage Information
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NG as residual balancer
NG Action NG ActionNG ActionNG Action NG Action
NG Actions
D1 D+1 D+2 D+3 D+4 D+5
Existing
Proposed
Gas Balancing Alert
Key that all NG actions feed into cash out
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OCM
Changes required to current platformTrading ‘beyond the wall’APX progressing changesOn track for 1 December
Platform for tradingTitle, Physical, Locational trades
Potential restrictions:lot size
delivery period
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Potential restrictions?
In a difficult winter scenario:
- Would amendments be required?
- Do customers have the capability to switch to an alternate fuel?
- Is this capability detailed on the permit?
Customers need to check their EA emission permit details
Does the permit only allow for interruption by National Grid?
Ofgem is working closely with EA on these issues
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Current Modification Proposals
NG has raised 2 modification proposals
Ofgem has granted Urgent status to both
Currently being progressed at Workstream
Are capable of implementation for this winter
Important for customers to express their views
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Contracting opportunities
Customers enter into contracts with suppliers
Contract price to reflect customers’ opportunity costs
Suppliers offer service to NG to balance the gas system
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Today
Discuss Options
Consider Possibilities
Meet Suppliers
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For more information…
Ofgem Area of Work
Wholesale Markets
DSWG
www.ofgem.gov.uk
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Promoting choice and value for all gas and electricity customers