topographic effects on typhoon nari (2001): model verification and sensitivity experiments
DESCRIPTION
Topographic Effects on Typhoon Nari (2001): Model Verification and Sensitivity Experiments. Ming-Jen Yang 1 , Hsiao-Ling Huang 1 , Da-Lin Zhang 2 1 National Central University, Taiwan 2 University of Maryland, USA. Why studied Typhoon Nari (2001)?. Unique track Slowly moving Long duration - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Topographic Effects on Typhoon Nari (2001): Model Verification and Sensitivity Experiments
Ming-Jen Yang1, Hsiao-Ling Huang1, Da-Lin Zhang2
1National Central University, Taiwan2University of Maryland, USA
Why studied Typhoon Nari (2001)?Why studied Typhoon Nari (2001)?
Unique trackSlowly movingLong durationWarm oceanHeavy rainfallSevere flooding
Sui et al. (2002) EOS article
Grid Size 54, 18, 6, 2 km
Fcst Period 84 hCumulus Grell (1993)
Microphysics Reisner et al. (1998)PBL MRF (Hong and Pan 1996)
Radiation Dudhia (1989 )I.C. ECMWF advanced analysis
(2001/09/15 1200 UTC)B.C. ECMWF advanced analysis
MM5 model physics (Control)
TC initialization: Davis and Low-Nam (2001)
Track Comparison
Simulation time (hr)
12 24 36 48 60 72 84
Track error (km)
43.3 61.2 26.8 13.4 12 8.5 104.8
Time Series of SLP and Vmax
2km MM56km MM5
24-h rainfall on 09/16
OBS
24-h rainfall on 09/17
OBS 2km MM56km MM5
24-h rainfall on 09/18
OBS 2km MM56km MM5
3-day rainfall on 09/16~09/18
OBS 2km MM56km MM5
Average Rainfall on TaiwanAverage Rainfall on Taiwan
Item N 09/16 09/17 09/183-Day Total
OBS (in mm) 325 132 206 97 435
6km MM5 1073 159 104 75 348
2km MM5 9602 175 133 84 383
MM5/OBS 0916 0917 09183-Day Total
6km MM5 121 % 51 % 78 % 80 %
2km MM5 133 % 65 % 87 % 88 %
Percentage wrt Rain Gauge OBSPercentage wrt Rain Gauge OBS
3-Day Total Rainfall versus Terrain Height3-Day Total Rainfall versus Terrain Height
RainGaugeOBS
2kmMM5
CWB: 0916_0100 UTC CTL: 0916_0000 UTC
Iso-surface of Snow (0.01 g/kg)and Cloud Water (0.3 g/kg)
Cloud Features
Radar CV Composite Before Landfall Radar CV Composite Before Landfall
OBS MM5
Radar CV Composite After Landfall Radar CV Composite After Landfall
OBS MM5
Sounding ComparisonSounding Comparison(within Eyewall)(within Eyewall)
Observed SoundingObserved Sounding MM5 SimulationMM5 Simulation
0916_1400 UTC
Horizontal Cross Section ofHorizontal Cross Section ofPressure PerturbationsPressure Perturbations
Radar Retrieval (wrt. aRadar Retrieval (wrt. aStation Sounding)Station Sounding)
MM5 Simulation (wrt. aMM5 Simulation (wrt. aHorizontal Area Mean)Horizontal Area Mean)
Courtesy of T.-C. Chen and Y.-C. LiouCourtesy of T.-C. Chen and Y.-C. Liou
5 ~ 6 hPa
8 ~ 9 hPa
Obs Vr (6 km pixel) MM5 Vr (dx = 6 km)
Radial Wind wrt RCWF Radar
@ 3 km Height
Courtesy of T.-C. Chen and Y.-C. LiouCourtesy of T.-C. Chen and Y.-C. Liou
-41.9
41.4
-45.1
43.6
Tangential Velocity Radial Velocity
MM5 Simulated Vr & VtNari at Sea (@ 3 km Height)
Tangential Velocity Radial Velocity
MM5 Simulated Vr & VtNari Landfall (@ 3 km Height)
C D
Radar Echo (color)Condensational Heating (contour)
A B
Over Ocean
After Landfall
C D
Radar Echo (color)Tangential Velocity (contour)
A B
Over Ocean
After Landfall
C D
Radar Echo (color)Radial Velocity (contour)
A B
Over Ocean
After Landfall
Terrain Sensitivity Terrain Sensitivity ExperimentsExperiments
Experiment Description
75%Ter 75% of Taiwan terrain50%Ter 50% of Taiwan terrain25%Ter 25% of Taiwan terrain
NoTer Flat land on terrain
75% Terrain 50% Terrain
25% Terrain No Terrain
Time series of SLP and Vmax
75% Terrain 50% Terrain
25% Terrain
100% Terrain
No Terrain
878 631 533
770 585
24-h RainfallOn 09/16
ConclusionsConclusions
■ After 22-h integration, the MM5 can simulate Nari’s landfall over the observed location in northern Taiwan with 3-h timing error.
■ For the 3-day-total rainfall averaged over Taiwan, the 6-km (2-km) MM5 can reach 80% (88%) of the observed amount.
■ The 2-km MM5 can simulate the observed storm intensity prior to landfall, the pressure filling and shrinking of eyewall during the landfall period, and the pressure gradient near the inner core.
ConclusionsConclusions■ After landfall, Taiwan’s terrain induces strong asym
metry on kinematic and precipitation structure, and lower the max. heating along mountain slopes.
■ The terrain impact on Nari’s intensity is quite linear, i.e., higher terrain producing a weaker typhoon. However, terrain impact on the accumulated rainfall on Taiwan is nonlinear.
■ Nari’s complex tracks near Taiwan result from the interactions between the steering flow, Taiwan topography, and terrain-induced mesoscale forcings