to: all commissioners and alternates · to: all commissioners and alternates ... with this so that...

BCDCMINUTESMay4,2017

May12,2017

TO: AllCommissionersandAlternates

FROM:LawrenceJ.Goldzband,ExecutiveDirector(415/352-3653;[email protected]) SharonLouie,Director,Administrative&TechnologyServices(415/352-3638;[email protected])

SUBJECT:ApprovedMinutesofMay4,2017CommissionMeeting

1. CalltoOrder.ThemeetingwascalledtoorderbyChairWassermanattheBayAreaMetroCenter,375BealeStreet,BoardRoom,FirstFloor,SanFrancisco,Californiaat1:13p.m.

2. RollCall.Presentwere:ChairWasserman,ViceChairHalsted(representedbyAlternateChappell),CommissionersAddiego,DeLaRosa(Departedat3:17p.m.),Gibbs,Gioia,Gorin(Arrivedat1:22p.m.),Kim(representedbyAlternatePeskin–Departedat3:10p.m.),McGrath,Nelson,Pine(Arrivedat2:20p.m.),Ranchod(Arrivedat2:16p.m.),Randolph(Arrivedat1:47p.m.),Sears,Showalter,Techel(Departedat3:02p.m.)andWagenknecht(Departedat3:02p.m.).

NotpresentwereCommissioners:AssociationofBayAreaGovernments(Butt),AlamedaCounty(Chan),SantaClaraCounty(Cortese),DepartmentofFinance(Finn),Governor(Zwissler),U.S.ArmyCorpsofEngineers(Hicks),StateLandsCommission(Lucchesi),DepartmentofBusinessTransportation&Housing(Sartipi),SolanoCounty(Spering).

3. PublicCommentPeriod.ChairWassermancalledforpubliccommentonsubjectsthatwerenotontheagenda.

Mr.JohnColemanwiththeBayPlanningCoalitionaddressedtheCommission:IwantedtoremindyouthatnextThursdayisourSpringSummitinwhichwehaveaphenomenalprogramlinedupandIamgoingtopassouttheagendasoyoucanseewhatthetopicsareandwhothespeakerswillbe.Themediawillbepresentandtheyaregoingtopushourpeopletoanswerquestions.JohnGioiawillspeakatlunchandhewearsanumberofhats.HemakespolicyandheisaregulatorhereontheCommissionandisonCARBandBACMAandalsodistributesfundsforMeasureAA.

ChairWassermanmovedtoApprovaloftheMinutes.

4. ApprovalofMinutesoftheApril20,2017Meeting.ChairWassermanaskedforamotionandasecondtoadopttheminutesofApril20,2017.

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MOTION:CommissionerWagenknechtmovedapprovaloftheMinutes,secondedbyCommissionerMcGrath.

VOTE:Themotioncarriedwithavoteof14-0-0withCommissionersAddiego,Chappell,DeLaRosa,Gibbs,Gioia,Gorin,Peskin,McGrath,Nelson,Pine,Sears,Techel,WagenknechtandChairWassermanvoting,“YES”,no“NO”,votesandnoabstentions.

5. ReportoftheChair.ChairWassermanreportedonthefollowing:

a. NewBusiness.Doesanyonewishtorequestanitemofnewbusinessthatwetakeupatafuturemeeting?(Nocommentswerevoiced)

b. NewCommissioner.IampleasedtoreportthatSanjayRanchod,whohasbeenCommissionerNelson’salternate,hasbeenappointedbyGovernorBrownasaCommissionertofillthechairthathasremainedemptysinceColleenJordanHallinanlefttheCommission.WeareveryhappytohaveSanjayasafull-timeCommissionerandjoiningPatasrepresentingthepeninsulawhichhasbeenunder-representedforaperiodoftime.

CommissionerGioiacommented:Ihavetosay,havingservedwithPatontheRestorationAuthorityboard,theywillnotbegoingunder-representedwhenwehavethemonboard(laughter).

ChairWassermancontinued:SanjaywillcontinuetoserveontheEnforcementCommitteewherehehasbeenaveryimportantresource.

c. NextBCDCMeeting.AtourMay18thmeeting,intheYerbaBuenaroomacrosstheway,wewillholdour8thrisingsealevelworkshopandIencourageallofyoutocometothat.

ProbablymostofwhatIwouldreallyliketosayinmygeneralremarksisgoingtobecoveredinthereportfromOPCwhichwillbealittlebitdelayed.WehadapreviewofitatthefocusingontheFutureFinanceWorkingGroupthismorning.Itsimplyreinforceswhatweknowthatthetippingpointhasbeenreached;thatifwestoppedgreenhousegasemissionstomorrowwewouldstillhavetodealwithaveryseriousrisingsealevel.Thenewstudiesfocusonthemeltingandthebreakingoffoftheicesheetsthatisgoingtomakethatwaterrise.Itwasstatedthat61percentofallofthefreshwateronEarthiscontainedintheArcticIceSheetShelf.WealsohadaverygoodpresentationfromKristinaHillfromU.C.BerkeleyandtheClimateReadinessInstituteonanumberofherobservationsonwhatothercountriesaredoingandsomecommentsonthingsthathavebeendonehereandarebeingconsideredhere.Oneofthepointsthatshemadeisthatwithhardscapeprotections;theydonotlastforever.Weneedtothinkverycarefullyaswethinkaboutwheretheymaybenecessarybecausetherearesomeareaswearegoingtohavetoarmorwithhardscape.Weneedtothinkabouthowtodealwiththissothatwedonotcreateanevenworseproblemforfuturegenerations.

d. Ex-ParteCommunications.Ifanybodywishestomakeanex-partecommunicationontherecordyoumay.Youdoneedtofilethoseinwritingsothisispurelyvoluntary.Therearenomattersonthisagendathatwouldrequirethat.(Nocommentswerevoiced).

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e. ExecutiveDirector’sReport.LarryGoldzbandwillnowpresenttheExecutiveDirector’sreport.

6. ReportoftheExecutiveDirector.ExecutiveDirectorGoldzbandreported:So,whathappenedtospring?IamgoingtosuggestthatBCDC’sworkshopstoexamineourownlawsandpoliciesinatransparentpublicforumsostirredtheuniversethatsummercameearly.Ormaybeit’sthenewsthatBCDCwillendtheyearwithasurplusandwithapositivecashflowdespiteourlackofachiefbudgetofficerthathascausedthesuntosmilesobrightly.Or,perhapsitwaslastmonth’sgrandre-openingofTesoro’smarineterminalinMartinezthatyoupermitted18monthsago.I’mtryingnottoboastaboutourgoodnews,butasYogiBerraoncesaid,it’snottheheat,it’sthehumility.

a. BudgetandStaff.Withregardtobudget,I’llstartoffbylettingyouknowthatwehaveclosedthefirstninemonthsoftheyearandouranalysiswiththeDepartmentofGeneralServicesshowsusintheblackandmovinginapositivedirection.Iamproudofouraccounting,contracting,andHRteam–they’vetakenagreatlead.

And,justaswearegettingthehangofit,wearethrilledtoletyouknowthatwehavehired,withyourapproval,anewchiefbudgetofficer.HernameisCheneeWilliamsandsheearnedaB.A.inAccountingfromDillardUniversity,atwhichshewasapointguardontheBlueDevilsbasketballteam(thatis“Blue”spelledb-l-e-u).Afterworkingforaninternationalaccountingfirmfortwoyears,shelefttoearnherMaster’sDegreeinInternationalSportManagementfromPurdueUniversityandbecametheAssociateAthleticDirectoratMississippiValleyStateUniversitywhereshemaintainedcomplianceunderNCAA,SWAC,andschoolpolicies.SheisnowanauditorwiththeStateofCaliforniaandwelookforwardtoherstartinginacoupleweeksunlessIhearanobjection.(Nocommentswerevoiced)

And,justasCheneeisabouttojoinus,AlexSmithhasleftus.YouwillrememberAlexastheperpetuallycheerfulstafferwhomadesurethatourmeetingswentsmoothlyfromanadministrativestandpoint,wasagreatreceptionist,andall-aroundutilitystaffer.AlexreceivedagreatpromotionfromtheDepartmentofIndustrialRelationsandwearesorrythathehasleftus.

b. Policy.IwaslatetoourworkshoplastThursdaybecauseIwasaskedtoprovidetestimonytotheSenateBudgetCommittee,chairedbyformerCommissionerBobWieckowski,onBCDC’sleadershipinthechallengetoincreaseBayArearesiliencyinlightofrisingsealevel.ItestifiedwithJackAinsworth,thenewExecutiveDirectoroftheCaliforniaCoastalCommission,andtheSenatorsandstafftoldusthatweprovidedclearandon-pointinformationthattheywillusetoassistusasnecessary.SenatorWieckowski,youwillremember,isabigsupporterofourAdaptingtoRisingTidesProgramandtheSubcommitteealsowasveryinterestedinhearingaboutourworkwithCaltransandMTCandourFinancingtheFutureCommissionerWorkingGroup.

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OnMondayofnextweekI’llbeatameetingwithvariousstaffoftheNaturalResourcesAgencytobriefthemonourpreliminarylistofbudgetchangeproposalsthatwillreflectthetasksoutlinedinourdraftrevisedStrategicPlanthatyouwilldiscusstoday.

Finally,IwanttopointoutthatinyourpackettodayisaninvitationtoaveryimportantworkshopthatthestatewillbeholdingattheHiramJohnsonstatebuildingonMonday,May22nd.You’llheartodayfromtheNaturalResourcesAgency,theOceanProtectionCouncilandtheOceanScienceTrustonthenewrisingsealevelprojections.OnthatMondaythethreeorganizationswillholdworkshopsontheirplanstoupdate“SafeguardingCalifornia,”theguidetothestate’sclimateadaptationstrategyinthemorningandontheguidancedocumentdescribinghowtoincorporaterisingsealevelprojectionsintoplanning,permittingandotherdecisions.Forthelocalelectedofficials,Iurgeyoutosendarepresentativetothisimportantday-longevent.

Thatconcludesmyreport,ChairWasserman,andI’mhappytoansweranyquestions.(Noquestionswerevoiced)

7. ConsiderationofAdministrativeMatters.ChairWassermanstatedtherewerenolistingsonadministrativematters.

8. BriefingonPlanBayArea.ChairWassermanannounced:MattMaloneyoftheMetropolitanTransportationCommissionwillgiveusanupdateonthestatusofPlanBayArea.

Mr.MaloneyaddressedtheCommission:EarlierthismonthMTCandABAGformallyreleasedtheDraftPlanBayArea2040andoverthenextmonthwearegoingtobeseekingfeedbackonthePlan;theactionplancomponentofthePlanaswellastheenvironmentalimpactreportfrompolicymakersandthepublic.

WhatIwantedtodotodaywasgiveyouabrief,five-minuteoverviewoftheprocessandtalkabouttheactionplan.ThisistheseconditerationofPlanBayArea,whichisacombinedregionaltransportationplanandsustainablecommunitystrategy.Wehavebeendoingregionaltransportationplansinthisregionforsometime.

WhenweprepareregionaltransportationplansorRTPsthegoalisalong-range,fiscally-constrainedplanfortransportationinvestments,andthatisafederalresponsibilitythatwehaveintermsofRTPs.

WhenSB375cameaboutweweretaskedalsotocombinethateffortwithasustainablecommunitystrategy,whichcausedustocreateaforecastofdevelopmentpatternforhousingandjobs,anddevelopastrategyforhousing,theexpectedgrowthintheregion’spopulation,andalsoforachievingpercapitaGHGtargetsinalong-rangeway.

ThisPlanhasaheavyfocusontheacutehousingcrisisthatisfacingthisregion.In2011to2015theregionaddedoverhalfamillionjobsandbuiltonly65,000housingunits.Regionallywehaveonehousingunitbuiltforeveryeightjobscreated.

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Peopleareincreasinglylivingfurtherawayfromwheretheywork,andthatistranslatingintonewpressuresonourtransportationsystem.

Transitisatrecordlevelsintermsofdealingwithitscapacity.BARTcarriestwo-thirdsoftheridersinthepeakhoursandiscompletelymaxedout.Weseeheavyincreasesonthehighwaysystemintermsofthecongesteddelayperworker.

Weareplanningfor820,000newhouseholdsinthisregionbetween2010and2040.ThePlanisafocuseddevelopmentpattern,andthatcontinuesthetrendfromthelastiterationofPlanBayAreawhichwasreleasedin2013.

Weareseeingnearlyhalfofthegrowthinhouseholdsinthebigthreecitiesoftheregion.Wehaveaboutathirdofthegrowthoccurringinthebaysidecommunities,whicharetheareasinblueonthemap.Wehavegrowthofroughly21percentintheinland,coastalanddeltaareasoftheregion.

ThePlandoescallforroughlythree-quartersofthehouseholdgrowthtobelocatedinprioritydevelopmentareas,whicharethelocallynominatedareasforhousingandjobgrowtharoundtheregion.ThePlantriestofocusitsforecastgrowthinthoseareas.

Weareplanningfor1.3millionnewjobs;43percentinthebigthreecities,40percentbayside,and17percentinland,coastal,delta–amajorityofthejobgrowthisforecasttobeinprioritydevelopmentareas.

ThePlanisafix-it-firststrategyforourtransportationsystem.Wehaveabig,maturesystemthatneedsoperations,maintenanceandmodernization.Nearly90percentofour300billiondollarsexpectedtransportationrevenuesbetween2015and2040wouldgotooperating,maintainingandmodernizingthesystem.10percentofthoserevenueswouldgotoexpandingthesystem.Whatwemeanbyexpandingisextend,fixed-guidewaytransitsystemsaswellasaddingsomelimitedcapacitytoourhighwaynetwork.

WesetaspirationalgoalsandtargetsforourPlan.Atthebeginning,wewillworkthroughourCommissionintermsofsettingthosegoals.ThePlanmeetsourstatutoryguidanceandtargetsregardingclimateprotectionandadequatehousing.ThePlanalsodoesagoodjobofachievingitstargetforprotectingopenspaceandagriculturallands.

Wegenerallymoveintherightdirectionintermsofsomeofourtransportationmetrics.WherethePlanreallyhasissuesisintermsofaffordability.

Whilewecanaccommodatetheregion’sgrowingpopulation,andhousethatpopulation,itdoesn’tnecessarilymeanit’sgoingtobeaffordable.WhilethePlanisbetterthannoplanatall,wearestillseeingissuesinthewrongdirection.ThathasmotivatedourCommissiontoaskustolookatpreparinganactionplan,whichbegsthequestion;whatwouldittaketomovesomeofthesemetricsintherightdirection?

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ThePlanhasfivechapters.Thefifthchapteristhisactionplan.WeputtheDraftPlanandEIRoutattheendofMarchorearlyApril,andwearegoingtobeacceptingcommentsonallofthesedocumentsthroughJune1st.

Wefocusedonthreeprongsintheactionplan.ThiswasmotivatedbyplaceswherethePlanwasmovinginthewrongdirection.Centraltothisistheaffordabilitychallenge.Howdowedealwiththehousingaffordabilitycrisis?Howdoweraisewagesbymovingfolksintomiddlewagejobs?

Wearealsotryingtodealwithissues,andtryingtobeproactivewithissuescomingbeforethisregion.Thatmeansaheavyfocusonresilienceintheactionplan.

Somekeyissuesarefunding,providingmorecoherentlocalassistancetoourcommunities,andsoon.Wehavesomeofthoserecommendationsintheactionplan.

Ouroutreachscheduleisfairlyrobust.Weareinthemiddleofitrightnow.Wehaveninebriefingsofelectedofficials–oneineachcounty.Wearestartingouropenhousesaroundtheregiontonight.Wealsoworkwithcommunity-basedorganizationsanddopublichearingsonthePlanandEIR.

ThefeedbackisdueJune1st.WewillbefinalizingthePlanandtheEIRandpreppingforadoptionthissummer.WearelookingforadoptioninlateJuly.

CommissionerNelsoncommented:Ournextagendaitemisdiscussingprojectionsforsealevelrise.BayAreashorelinecommunitiesarewhereyourworkontransportation,housing,andjobsintersectswithourworkregardingtheBay.Haveyoudoneanyanalysis,orwoulditbepossibletodosomeanalysis,thatlooksattheimplicationsofthisPlanandshorelinecommunities?Thereareanenormousnumberofcommunitiesthatarestillhighlydevelopedthatweknowwearegoingtoneedtoprotectthoseinthefuture.ThereareotherpropertiesaroundtheBaywherethatmayormaynotbetrue.

I’mwonderingiftherehasbeenanalysisdone,orifitispossibletolookattheimplicationsofthisPlanaroundtheBayshoreline,notjustinourjurisdiction,butinlow-lyingcommunitiesnearourjurisdiction?

Mr.Maloneyresponded:InourEIRwedosomeofthatanalysislookingatthePlan,andalsoalternativestothePlan.TheEIRisaverylengthydocumentandwedoincludesomeofBCDC’sworkinAdaptingtoRisingTidesinthatdocument.Thereareoverlayscreatedbetweenourforecastofdevelopmentpatternsandwhereweforeseethosechallenges.

Therearesomestarkchallengeswiththiswork.Thisregionhasfocusedmuchofitsdevelopmentinsomeoftheseareaspredominatelybecausealotoftheseareashaveverygoodtransitaccess.Intermsofdoingthislong-rangeplanning,it’swhatwehavebeenfocusingoninordertoachieveGHGtargets.

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Atthesametime,alotoftheseplaceshavehugechallengeswithsealevelrise.Thatisonebigplanningandpublicpolicyissuethatwearefacinginabigwayinthisregion.SomeanalysishasbeendonebyBCDCfromtheBARCgroupandfromABAGonhowtodealwiththesecommunities.Itmaybeprovidinglocalassistancesowecancomeupwithnew,novelwaystomitigatethosechallenges.Wemustgobackandreconsidertheprioritydevelopmentareasasaframeworkandwhatthatmeansforourplanningprocess.

Youaregoingtoseeanevolutionasyoumovetothenewplan,wherewetakeareallycarefullookatthemarketpotentialandfeasibilityofthesetypesofareasfromaresiliencylensofhowtheyperform.Asaregion,weneedtobuildthatintoourplanningcomprehensively.

CommissionerGorincommented:IamfromSonomaCounty,oneofthosecountiesthatistransportation-challenged.(Laughter)WorkingonHighway37today,thefourcountiesarecomingtogether,andfinancingisgoingtobeinteresting.TollingisinourfutureIsuspect.

ManyofmyconstituentshavegivenuponthecommuteandtheyaremovingbacktoSanFrancisco,orclosertowheretheirjobsare.Thatisprobablygoodforthetransportationpatterns.Areyoulookingatnotonlythecentralemploymenthubsofthebigthree,butthepotentialemployeecommutepatternsthathavedevelopedaroundtheNorthBaywherethehousingisgoing?Whereit’sslightlymoreaffordableinSolanoCounty.HaveyoulookedattheimpactonHighway37andotherstatehighwaystryingtogetfromplacetoplace?

HaveyoulookedathowthatfactorsintotheplanningoftheDraftBayArea,andhaveyouthoughtaboutmoretransportation/transitoptionsfromandaroundtheNorthBay,andtryingtofigureouthowwecanavoidaddingmorecongestiononourfreeways?

Mr.Maloneyanswered:AllthoseprojectsthatyoumentionedintheNorthBayareprioritiesforMTCtoo.ThePlandoesincludeamarkerforSR37intermsofgettingtheenvironmentalprocessunderway.Itisgoingtobeabig,expensiveprojectthatisgoingtoputeverythingtogether;maintainingwhatisthere,potentiallyaddingcapacity,anddealingwiththesealevelriseissuethatisfacingthatcorridor.

SR37workisbeginningandwehavetothinkaboutwhatthatmightmeanforathirdregionalmeasureforacorridor.Marin/Sonomanarrowsisanotherhugechallenge.ThePlandoesincludethatasafiscally-constrainedpriority,aswellastheSmartTrain,whichiscomingonline.

ThePlanalsomakessomeprettysignificantinvestmentsinlocalbusservice.InSonomaCounty,theyputforwardamajorincreaseboostintheirbusservice.Thatcameoutverywell,andthatinvestmentisfullyfundedinthePlan.

CommissionerGorinadded:Thankyouforyourworkonthis.I’llmakesurethatIattendtheSonomaCountymeeting.Wearenotonlylookingfortransitoptions,butalsoneedeast/westconnectionstoSolano,Napa,SonomaandMarin.

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CommissionerGibbscommented:Youhammeredhomeontheaffordabilityissue.IwanttomakesureIunderstandhowyouareusingthetermbecauseyousaid:“Wearegoingtohaveseveralhundredthousandnewhouseholdsbutit’snotgoingtobeaffordable.”Inthesimplestunderstandingoftheterm,ifit’sreallynotaffordable,theycan’taffordit,sotheycan’tbethere.Doyoureallymeanthatthehousingwilltaketoohighapercentageoftheirdisposableincome?Oristheresomeotherwaythatyouareusingtheterm?

Mr.Maloneyresponded:Thatiswhatwemean.WhatthePlanneedstodoisdevelopastrategyforaccommodatingthegrowthintheregion’spopulation.Thatnumberisabout820,000newhouseholdsbetween2010and2040.Accommodatingthegrowthintheregion’spopulationisnotnecessarilythesameasaccommodatingitaffordably.OnethingthatweseeinourPlanisthatintermsoflookingathousingplustransportationcosts,especiallyforthelow-incomespectrumofthepopulation,thatcostgoingtoriseby13percentagepointsbetween2010and2040.Thatisnotgoodnews.

Ofthose13percentagepoints,12ofthe13hastodowithhousingcosts.Transportationisgettingalittlemoreexpensive;housingisforecasttogetevenmoreexpensiveandtakeupmoreofthepurchasingpoweroflow-incomefolks.

Thatistheproblemthatisfacingus.Wearebeingveryclearaboutthatmassivepublicpolicyissue.Wearenottheonlyagency,butfromaregionalstandpointwearetryingtodrivethatpointhome.

CommissionerNelsonchimedin:Arethose800,000newhouseholdsgrossornet?Doesthatincludedisplacementwhenyoutalkaboutaffordability?Areyouprojectingdisplacementcausedbyaffordabilitychallenges?

Mr.Maloneyexplained:Whatwelookatistheriskofdisplacement.Welookatforecastingwhetherlow-incomefolksaregoingtobeleavingcensustracts.

WedoseethatthePlan,comparedtodoingnothingatall,performsbetterrelativetowhatwouldhappenwithoutthePlan.Wearestillmovinginthewrongdirectionintermsoftherisksofdisplacement.

Weareforecastingthatthisproblemisgoingtocontinue.WeareseeingfolksfleetheregionandmovingouttotheCentralValleyinsearchofaffordability.Ataneighborhoodlevelmanyofyouarefamiliarwiththechallengesinsomepartsofthisregionintermsofpeoplebeingpricedout.

ChairWassermancommented:DoesthePlantalkabouttherangeofwhataffordabilitymeans?Thereisalotofpublicdiscussionaboutaffordabilityforlow-income.Theretendstobealittlelessdiscussionaboutaffordabilityforworkforcehousingforpeoplewhoareemployed,butcannotaffordhousing,rentalorpurchase.

DoesthePlanaddressthoseissuesaswell?

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Mr.Maloneyreplied:Itdoes.Andagain,thecentraldrivingpointbehindthePlanistohousethepopulationatallincomelevels.Whatwehaveseenintermsofwhatcitieshaveactuallydone,permittedandproducedontheground,isthatwehaveproducedenoughhousingforhigherincomes,butintermsoflowandmoderateincomes,includingtheworkforcehousing,weareseeingourlocalcommunitiesstrugglingtoreachthosegoals.

ThatispointedoutfrontandcenterinthePlan.Iagreewithyouontheaffordabilityissue,butitisalsomiddle-wagehousingaswell.

ChairWassermancontinued:Isoneofthose16supplementreportsonsustainability?

Mr.Maloneyanswered:Thesupplementalreportsarenotnecessarilypolicyreports.Theyaremoremethodologyorientedreportsfocusedonhowwedoourforecasting;themethodologyofhowwedoourjobsinhousing,andhowwedevelopourfinancialprojections.Theyaremorefocusedontechnicalmethodology.

Wedon’thaveasustainabilityreportasoneofthose16reports.Movingforward,asweevolveinourlong-rangeplanning,thereisgoingtobeanevolutionandacallforourplanningtobecomemoreandmorecomprehensive.Wecurrentlyaredealingprimarilywithhousingandtransportation,butwehavetomoveforwardandbuildsustainabilityandresiliencyascentralpiecestoourlong-rangeplanning.

ChairWassermanadded:Myrecollectionistherewasafairamountofdiscussionafterthefirstplan,beforetheworkforthisplanreallygotunderway,aboutmakingsustainabilitygenerally,andsealevelriseinparticularapartofthereport.Myimpressionisthatwhileitisdiscussedprobablymorethaninthefirstplan;itisn’tdiscussedalot.

Mr.Maloneyreplied:Itisoneofthethreepillarsoftheactionplan.Itisnotonlyhousingandeconomicdevelopment,butthethirdprongofthePlanisresiliency.Wearetryingtobeaggressivewiththatasapublicpolicyarea.

SomefolksfromtheBARCgroup,ABAG,andBCDChavebeencollaboratingaroundaresiliencydocumentthatwouldspeaktothePlanintermsofwhatthePlancurrentlydoesaroundtheissuesofresiliency;especiallywithhazardsandsealevelrise,butalsolookingatearthquakes,drought,andallthosekindsofthings.Wealsotrytopointthewayforwardintermsofhowourfutureplansdealwiththeseissuesinamorecentralway.

Thiscoordinationisgoingon.Wehaveourworkcutoutforusinhowwemakeourplanningmorecomprehensive,andhowwedealwiththoseissuesmorecentrally.

CommissionerShowaltercommented:Thisaffordabilityissueisnotanewproblem.Irememberinthe90shearingthatSantaClaraCountyhadbuiltonehousingunitforeveryninenewjobsproduced.Ithinkitisprobablyalotworsenow.

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Wehavehadthisproblemofunder-buildingforatleast40years.Inanutshell,canyoutellusanynewpolicyideasthathavecomeoutofthisthatyouseewillhelpus,orisitjustdoingmoreofthesamegoodthingsthatareintheaffordablehousingtoolboxthatwehavebeenworkingwithfor40years?

Mr.Maloneyreplied:Ithinkalittlebitofboth.Wedoneedsomenewideas.ThePlanispopulatedwithsomestrategiesthatweusetomotivatemoreaffordableandmoderatehousing.Weworkedwiththosepriorityareas.WhatthePlancan’tdoisbeapatchworkoflocalgeneralplans.Whatisinterestingaboutthisprocessisthatifyoujuststuckallthosegeneralplanstogether,wewouldbenowherenearthehousingnumberthatweneedtoachievetoaccommodatetheregion’spopulation.Thatisproblemnumberone.

ThewaythattheRegionalPlanhastodealwiththatistrytomotivatemoreofthatbehavior.Wedothatalittlebitthroughworkingtoupzonesomeprioritydevelopmentareastotrytomotivatemorehousinggrowthinaplanningsenseinsomeofthoselocalcommunitiesanddealwithsomeintermsofourpolicytoolbox,whetherit’sinclusionaryzoningorotherstrategiestotrytoworkonaffordability.

Itisclearthatinthisregionweneednewfundingsources.Weneedtofigureouthowtogethousingproduced.Thereisamyriadofwaysforhousingnottogetbuiltinthisregion.Itisaproblemofplanninginsomecommunities,justgettingpermitstohappen.Inothercommunitiespermittingisfinebutwejustcan’tgetstuffbuiltontheground.ItisalmosteveryproblemfromAtoZunderthesun.

Thereareamyriadofissuesthatwehavetolookat.OnethingthatwearestartinginMayisanewcommitteetolookatthispolicyproblem,especiallyintermsofwhattheregioncandoaboutit;whattheseagenciescandototrytosolvetheproblem.Weareformingacommitteecalled,“CASA”,theCommitteeforSustainableAccommodations.Itissortofablueribbonpanelthatweareputtingtogethertoreallylookatwhatthisregioncandotosolvethehousingcrisis;whetheritisfundingandtryingtobemorepersuasivewithourpolicytoolkitwithlocalcommunities.

Wethinkitisjobnumberonetolookatthisissuethisyear.

ChairWassermanadded:IthinkPatmakesaveryimportantpointthatkeepsgettinglost.Wedon’thaveahousingcrisis.Wehaveastructuralhousingproblemthathasexistedforalongtimeandisgettingmuchworse.

Theproblemwithcallingitacrisisisitmaymakeusfeelgood,mayrespondparticularlytothoseleastabletorepresentthemselves,buttheproblemofthinkingaboutitasacrisisisyouthinkaboutaquicksolution.Youthinkaboutanimmediatesolution.Therearenoimmediatesolutions.

Iwouldurgethedocumentandtheplannerstostoptalkingabout,“crisis”.Itisastructuralproblemthatwereallyneedtofocuson.

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CommissionerGibbsaskedformoreinformation:ChairWasserman,canyououtlineyouranalysisofthestructuralproblem?

ChairWassermanexplained:IthinkPatpointeditout.IfyoulookatthegrowththroughouttheBayArea,butparticularlyinthehigh-growthareas;gobackalmostaslongasyoulike,andwehavebeenproducinglesshousingthanjobsbyaverysignificantmultiplyingfactor–andthatcontinues.Oneofthegreatdifficultiesis,ifyoulookattotalhousingprojectioninnewhousing,particularlyinthoseplaceswheretherehasbeengrowthsuchasSanFrancisco,it’sthehigh-endhousing.Itisnottheworkforcehousing.Itisnottheaffordablehousing.

Thishasbeengoingonforaverylongtime.Theotherproblemiswhenwethinkaboutitascrisis,youthinkaboutnewhousingcausingdisplacement.Andobviouslyinsomeplacesitdoes.Ifyouteardownexistinghousingtobuildnewhousing,youaredisplacing.Displacementinthepublicdiscussiontodayistakentomeanmuchmorethanthat,becauseifyouputhousingthatismarketrate,particularlyhigher-endmarketrateonvacantland;peoplestillthinkofdisplacementbecauseoftrickledownandchangingneighborhoods.

Youputthecrisiscontextonitanditbecomes:we’vegottobequick,we’vegottobeimmediate.Youhavetostopthis–wereallyneedthestructuralcomponent.Thisisobviouslypreciselythekindofplanningtodealwithitthatway.

Mr.Maloneystated:Aswetalkaboutstructuralissues,theotherpieceofthePlanthatisfrontandcenteristhetaxpolicyelementandthefiscalhealthofcitiesincludingthefactthatinmanyplaces,housingdoesn’tbalanceoutforcitiesinawaythatsalestaxdoes.

Thatisarealityofthesystemthatweliveinhereandinmanyotherpartsofthecountry.Itisahardnuttocrack.

ChairWassermancontinuedthediscussion:Andtheothersideofthatverysameclimbisthatthecosttobuildahousingunitwhenyouincludeallofthefeesandalloftheprocess,andheavenforbidyoushouldputatimefactorinthat,ispartofwhatmakesitsodifficulttobuildhousingthatisnotoutrageouslyexpensive.

CommissionerShowalteradded:Ihearthattaxthingallthetimeanditisabsolutelytrue.TheotherthingthatisabsolutelytrueisourconceptoftheAmericanDream.TheAmericanDreamisthatyouhaveahouseonalittleplotoflandthatyoucanwalkaround.

Ahousewithaplotoflandisurbansprawl.Anotherthingweneedtodoischangethatconceptinpeoples’mindsandreallymarketthejoyoflivinginanurbansettingbecausetheybothhavetheirwonderfulaspects.Wehaveanawfulproblemwiththatlittlehouseandaplotofland.Idon’tthinkweshouldforgetaboutthateither.

CommissionerGibbsasked:Mr.Maloney,areyouwillingandabletomakethispresentationinothervenues?

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Mr.Maloneyreplied:Wearedoingitallthetime.

CommissionerGibbsasked:Canyouprovideyouemailandphonenumber?

Mr.Maloneyanswered:Absolutely.Wecanhaveitonfileandsenditouttothegroup–[email protected].

ChairWassermancontinued:Thankyouforthepresentationandyourwork.ThatbringsustoItem9,BriefingonUpdatedProjectionsofRisingSeaLevel.JenniferPhilipsstaffoftheOceanProtectionCouncilwillmakethepresentation.SteveGoldbeckislistedasdoinganintroduction.

9. BriefingonUpdatedProjectionsofRisingSeaLevel.ChiefDeputyDirectorGoldbeckannounced:Youallknowthatapplicantsarerequiredbyyourclimatechangepoliciestoprepareavulnerabilityassessmentofrisingsealevelontheirprojectsandconstructtheprojectsinawaythatisresilienttomid-centuryandhaveanadaptivemanagementstrategytoend-of-century.Theclimatechangepoliciesdon’tsaywhatnumberstousetodothatandthatisbecausethesciencekeepsevolving.Thepoliciescallforthebestavailablesciencetobeused;tothatend,wearegoingtohaveatalknowtodiscusssomeofthelatestscienceanalysisthathasbeendone.

SomeofyouheardinthemorningattheWorkgroupmeetingamoreextensivetalkbyProfessorGaryGreggsofU.C.SantaCruzbutthisafternoonwehaveJenniferPhilipsofthestaffoftheOceanProtectionCounciltotalkaboutthenewprojectionsthathavebeenpreparedforrisingsealevelonthecoastofCalifornia.

Ms.JenniferPhilipsaddressedtheCommission:IamapolicyadvisorattheOceanProtectionCouncilandIworkonalotofourclimateworkonsealevelriseandoceanacidification.TheOceanProtectionCouncilispartoftheCaliforniaNaturalResourcesAgency.OneofourcouncilmembersisResourcesAgencySecretaryJohnLairdandweservetobringtogetherallofthestateoceanandcoastalagenciestoprotectouroceanandcoastalresources.

Abigpartofourworkisfundingandmakingsurethatwearebasingdecisionsacrossthestateonthebestavailablescienceandadvancingourstateprioritiesaroundoceanandcoastalprotection.

IamgoingtoprovideanoverviewonourprocesstoupdatethestateSeaLevelRiseGuidancedocumentandpresentsomeofthefindingsfromtherecentlyreleasedScienceReportthatisgoingtobeafoundationalpieceofthestatepolicyguidancedueoutinearlyJanuary.

AnimportantcomponentwithOPCofoursealevelriseworkisensuringthatthisstateguidancedocumentisbasedonthebestavailablescience.Ourcurrentpolicyguidanceisfrom2013andit’sbasedonanationalResearchCouncilreportfrom2012.

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Recentadvancementsinsealevelrisescienceandimprovedunderstanding;inparticular,oficelossfromPolaricesheetshavemeritedanupdate.

Theaudienceforthispolicyguidancecontinuestobestateagenciesaswellaslocalgovernments.ItisreallyhopingtoserveasaresourceforcitiesandcountiesastheycomplywithSenateBill379whichdirectslocalgovernmentstoincorporateclimateadaptationintogeneralplans.

It’salsoservingtoassiststateagenciesforpreparingforpermitting,investingandadaptingtoclimatechangeasdirectedbyGovernorBrown’sexecutiveorder.

Iwanttogivesomeframingofengagementandthebroaderprocesstoupdatetheguidance.Ingeneral,throughout2017OPCislookingforwardtocontinuingtoengagewithyouall,stateagencies,localgovernments,tribes,vulnerablecommunities,NGOsandotherconstituentstoupdateourpolicyguidance.

BetweenDecember2016andApril2017we’vehadinitialengagementwithstateagencies,localgovernmentsandconstituentsintheformofone-on-oneinterviews,listeningsessions,statemeetingsandconveningourstateleadershipgrouponsealevelrise.

Allofthisengagementhasservedtobetterunderstandtheneedsofthosefolksthatwillbeusingtheguidancedocumentandmakesurethatitisasusefulaspossible.

Lastweek,April26th,wehadourOPCmeetingwherewereleasedthelatestsciencesummaryandOPCCounciladoptedaresolutiontoupdatethepolicyguidance.

FollowingfromMaytoJunewe’regoingtohaveaseriesofpublicworkshopstosolicitfeedbackonourdraftframeworkforthestateguidancedocument.Weareworkingrightnowonwhatthatframeworklookslikeandwe’llbebringingittotheseseriesofpublicworkshopsstartinginacoupleofweeks.

ThenafterthatwearegoingtobedraftingtheguidanceandintheOctobertoNovembertimeframewe’llhavea30daypubliccommentperiodonthedraftguidanceandinJanuarywewillbehopingtohaveapprovalbyourCounciloftheupdatedguidancedocument.

Ourpolicyguidanceneedstobebasedonthebestavailablescience.BecauseofthisweconvenedaworkinggroupofOPCScienceAdvisoryTeam.Thiswasconvenedbyoursisterpartneragency,OceanScienceTrustinearly2017.

Webroughttogethersevenoftheleadingexpertsoncoastalprocesses,riskassessment,climatechange,icelossandicesheetbehavioraswellasstatisticalmodelling.

TheyreleasedasciencereportonApril26thandthatwasinformedbyquestionsfromapolicyadvisorycommitteeconsistingofrepresentativesfromtheCaliforniaEnergyCommission,OceanProtectionCouncil,theGovernor’sOfficeofPlanningandResearchandtheCaliforniaNaturalResourcesAgency.

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Thispolicyadvisorycommitteehasprovidedquestionstothescientificteamtobetterunderstandthecurrentestimatesofsealevelriseandhowtounderstandthescientificcontextaroundthoseestimates.

ThesequestionsareallprovidedinAppendix1oftheRisingSeasDocument.

Iamgoingtodiscussthedifferencesbetweenthecurrentguidanceandwhattheupdatedprojectionswilllooklike.FirstIwanttohighlightsomeofthescientificadvances.

Therelativecontributionofsealevelrise,whatweknewaboutitfromseveralyearsago,ischanging.Thecontributionofsealevelriseusedtobebasedonpredominatelyoceanthermalexpansioncausedbyoceanwarming,andmeltingmountainglaciers.

Thatusedtobethegreatestcontributorbutnowwearelearningthatthemeltingofpolaricesheets,AntarcticaandGreenland,isacceleratingandcouldsoonbethedominantsourceofsealevelrise.

Thelossoftheremainingmountainglacierswouldonlycontributea1.6footriseisglobalsealevelrise.However,ifwelostallofGreenlandandAntarcticathiswouldrepresentabout24feetor187feetrespectively;so24feetforGreenlandand187forAntarcticaifweweretolosealloftheicesheets.However,wealsoknowthatwearenotgoingtolosealloftheicesheets.TheyarenotexpectedtomeltcompletelyinthiscenturyorevenonmillennialtimescalesbutalossofasmallfractionofthesepolaricesheetscouldhavedevastatingconsequencesforCalifornia.

Whatwearereallyfocusingonandwhatwe’velearnedfromthescientistsisthatthelossoftheWestAntarcticaIceSheetisgoingtocausesignificantsealevelriseamplificationattheCaliforniacoastduetoourgravitationalandrotationaleffectsoftheEarth.

ForCaliforniathemainsourceofPolarIceSheetmeltthatwe’remostfocusedonandthinkingaboutisthelossoftheWestAntarcticaIceSheetbecauseofourgravitationalandrotationalforceoftheplanet.

IfweweretogainafootofglobalsealevelrisefromthelossofWestAntarctica;thatwouldactuallyamountto1.25feetofsealevelrisealongtheCaliforniacoast.

Iwillnowtalkaboutthedifferencesinthecurrentguidancefrom2013versustheScienceReportthatwasjustreleasedlastweek.Thebiggestdifferenceshereisthatthe2013guidanceisbasedonlow-scenario,amedium-scenarioorahigh-scenarioofsealevelrisewhereasthesciencethatwehavebeengivenandaregoingtothinkaboutasweupdateourguidanceisbasedonprobabilities.Sowe’renotonlygettingprojectionsofrisebutwe’reunderstandingwhattheprobabilityisofthosenumbersandoverwhattimeframe.

Ourcurrentguidancefrom2013includedarangeofthoseprojections,low,centralandhighovertimescalesbutwithoutinformationaboutlikelihoodsofthoselevelsandwhentheywouldbemet.

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OurScienceSummarythatwasreleasedistheupdatedprojectionsincludingrangesforseveralglobalCO2emissionscenariosalongwiththelikelihoodthatthoserangeswillbemet.

Theseprobabilitieswearehopingcanhelpmakebetterdecisionsatalocalandstatewidescale.Thissortofframework,thisprobability-basedorlikelihood-basedframeworkhasbeenusedinmanyotherregionsthroughouttheU.S.suchaswithNewJersey’sClimateAdaptationAllianceandregionalgroupsthatareunderwayrightnowinWashingtonState.

Onethingthatthescientistshavetoldusisthatthisprobability-basedframeworkoraframework,basedonlikelihoods,maybeunder-estimatingextremesealevelrisefromthelossofPolarIceSheets,particularlyunderhighemissionscenarios.

Scientistshaveincludedanextremesealevelrisescenarioalongsidewiththeseprobabilitydistributions.

TheorangeprojectionsonthescreenarefromtheNationalResearchCouncilReportfrom2012thatwasusedtoinformour2013Guidance.Thepinkandredbarsareprojectionsbasedonalow-CO2emissionsscenarioandahigh-CO2emissionsscenariointheRisingSeasScienceReport.

Wealsohavetheextreme-scenario;thereddotatthetopthatisbasedonthelatestmodelingworkfromNOAA.Thatdoesnothaveanyprobabilitiesorlikelihoodsbutitisanextreme-scenariooficelossfromPolarIceSheets.

Thesetablesareourupdatedprojectionsthatwereprovidedbytheteamofscientists.ItisTable1Binyourreport.ThisisprojectedsealevelrisemeasuredinfeetinSanFrancisco.We’vealsodonethisforCrescentCityandLaJolla.

Intheblueboxwehaveprobabilitiesanddistributionsofchangesofsealevelriseexpectedby2100overanincreased-emissionsscenario.Thereisa50percentchanceby2100thatsealevelrisemeetsorexceeds2.5feet.Thenextboxovershowsalikelyrange,soitillustratesatwo-thirdschancethatwehavethatrangeof1.6to3.4feetofsealevelriseby2100.

Rightbelowthatwehavetheextreme-scenario.Itisjustasinglescenariobecausewehavenotassignedprobabilitiestoit.Thatisstatingthattherecouldbeupto10feetofsealevelriseby2100.

CommissionerGioiaaskedfordetails:CanyoudifferentiatethevariousRCP?

Ms.Philipsexplained:IdidnotwanttogettootechnicalbutRCPsareemissionsscenariosbasedontheInter-GovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.SoRCP2.6isalow-emissionsscenariomeaningweareveryaggressivewithourclimatepolicies.

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CommissionerGioiainquiredfurther:Canyouquantifyitintermsofmillionmetrictons?

Ms.Philipsreplied:Idon’thavethatnumberoffthetopofmyhead.

ExecutiveDirectorGoldzbandclarified:IcantellyouthatGaryGriggs,thismorning,saidthat’sParis.Hesaidthat2.6istheParisAccord.

Ms.Philipsadded:Andthen8.5wouldbewherewedon’tdoanything.Itisakindofbusiness-as-usualscenario.

CommissionerGioiacontinued:So2.6assumesthegoalsoftheParisAccord,8.5isnotdoinganythingfromcurrentaction–andthen4.5?

Ms.Philipsexplained:thatisdoingsomebutnotasmuchasParis.WhenwegobacktothisweareusingParis2.6andthen8.5;sothelowandthehigh.

CommissionerGioiaofferedanobservation:AninterestingwayofexpressingthisisthatthedifferencebetweennotdoinganythinganddoingParisAccordgoalsisaroundonefoot.Thatisalwaysimportanttoextract.Sealevelriseishappeningnomatterwhat;thequestionis,atwhatlevel?Andwe’resaying,thedifferenceisifwearereallyaggressiveit’safootlessthanifwedon’tdoanything.

ExecutiveDirectorGoldzbandaddedclarifications:Iamgoingtoaddafriendlyamendmenttothat.Itisnotquitecorrectbecausewhatthemedianandlikelyrangearedescribedataredifferent.The2.5feetisa50percentprobabilitythatitisgoingtobe2.5orabove.It’saflipofacoin.

Thelikelyrangeisdifferent;thatthereisa67percentprobabilitywhichmeansthatyougotatailoneitherendthattotals33percentthatitwillbebetweenthosetwonumbers.

Itisnotquiteapplesandorangesbutitisdifferent.

CommissionerGioiapressedformoredetail:Sowhatisthemedianbetweenthetwo?Iamjusttryingtounderstandhowwewouldexpressinsomeaccuratewaythedifferencebetweendoingsomethingandnotdoingsomething.Ilookatthelikelyrangebetween1and2.4andbetween1.6and3.4,sothat’sadifferenceofbetweenabouthalfafootandonefoot.Isn’tthatsortofaninterestingwayofsayingit?It’saboutaone-halftoonefootdifferenceastowhetherwedosomethingornot.

Mr.Philipsagreed:Yes.Wecandefinitelygive–

CommissionerGioiainterjected:Imean,numbersaregreat.Wedon’tdoaverygoodjobhereinthepublicorthescientificcommunityexpressingthingsinlaylanguagesopeoplecanunderstandthem.WhatI’maskingis;it’sareallygood–IthinkweshouldcomeuphereaccuratelywithwhatisthedifferenceatSanFranciscoBayforbeingaggressiveandmeetingtheParisAccordsordoingnothing.

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Ifwecan’tfigureitoutwehavetofigureouthowtoconveythat.So,canyougetbacktousonwhatlanguagewouldbetherightlanguagebasedontherightscience.Lookingatthisislookingatthelikelyrangesbetweenone-halfandonefootdifference.Youshouldgetbacktous.

CommissionerMcGrathhadsomeconcerns:I’malittleworriedaboutboggingdownthere.It’sclearthatsealevelriseisgoingtocontinueandaccelerate.Wedon’tknowhowmuchit’sgoingtoacceleratebutunlessyoudosomethingaboutCO2you’vegotacertainamountofsealevelrisecookedinthebooks.

Forthoseofuswhoareinvolvedinthefundingandtherenewalofinfrastructure,itmattersparticularlywhenwearerebuildinginfrastructurebecauseunlessweamortizewhatwearedoingandsay;okay,thisisgoodfor50yearsbutthenit’sgoingtobecooked,we’recommittedtoreplacingthatinfrastructureatmaybea30to40yearintervalwithevenmoreexpensiveinfrastructure.Anditisreallyhardtopassbondsfora40yearperiod.

Thecertaintyandtheaccelerationareprobablymoreimportantthanexactlywhatthenumberis.

CommissionerGioiaresponded:Iappreciatewhatyouaresaying.Iwillstandbymycommenthavingbeeninofficefornearly30yearsthatwedoapoorjobofcommunicatingtothepublicinawaythatisunderstandableanditcanbegrasped.Scientificdatainawaythatcanbeappreciatedandmovepeopletoactioniswhatwehavetodointhepoliticalworld.Weneedtomovepeopletosupportpoliciesandactions.

Iamaskingthefolkswholookatthedatatogiveanaccuraterange.Thedifferencebetweendoingsomethingandnotdoingsomethingis,this.AndweknowintheBayAreawhatitmeanstohaveadifferencebetweenahalfafootandafoot.Itmeanscertainareaswillbeinundated,somewillnot;it’sgoingtocostthismuchversusthismuch.Weknowthatthecommunicationofpoliticsinthiscountryisverysimplified.Wehavetobesimpleandaccurateandmeaningful.

So,gettingcaughtupandboggeddowninthedataisgoodforusthatarestudyingtheissuebutisnotparticularlyeffectiveatmovingthepublic.

Ms.Philipsagreed:Right.AndIjustwanttoqualify,thatagain,thisisthesciencesowehavethosesevenscientistscometogetherandgiveusthereportandweaspolicymakerstrytostayoutofitandreceivethescienceasonepiece.Ournextsixorsevenmonthsofworkistakingtheserawnumbersandbeingabletonotsay,RCP2.6butwhatdoesthatmean?Howisthatplayingout?Whatdoesitlooklikeatdifferentscales?

Wewantedtocomehereearlyandpresenttherawscienceandthentalkaboutthenextstepsforengagement.

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Lookingatthenextprojections–again,thisistheextremescenarioofsealevelrisewithWestAntarcticameltingbasedonamodelingreportfromNOAA.Thisissomethingthatthescientistsaretellinguswereallyneedtothinkaboutandconsider.Butthere’salotofuncertaintyaboutwhenandtheextenttowhichwe’regoingtoseethis.Wearenotabletoassignprobabilitiesorlikelihoodstothisextremescenario.

Theblueboxhighlightsprojectedriseinsealevelriseinfeetto2100andhowmuchwewillexceedtheprobabilitywithwhichwewillexceedaparticularheightofsealevelrise.

By2100underthisincreased-emissionsscenariowewouldhavea96percentchancethatwewouldmeetorexceedonefootofsealevelrise,70percentthatwewouldmeetorexceedtwofeetandsoon.ThisisjustforSanFranciscoandwe’vedonethesameforLaJollaandCrescentCity.

Thescientifickeyfindingsarehelpfulforframingthisdiscussionisthatourscientificunderstandingofsealevelriseisadvancingatarapidpace.There’sbeenahugesurgeofinformationfromthe2012andSeaReporttowhatweknownowthat’sinthisreport.

Thescientistshaverecommendedandsuggestedthatwemayneedperiodicupdatesofourpolicyguidance.TheWorkingGrouprecommendedthatwemayneedtolookataminimumofupdatingourpolicyguidanceeveryfiveyearstokeepupwiththescience.

Thenextkeyfindingisthatthedirectionofsealevelchangeisclear.Thesealevelsarerisingsoit’snotaquestionof,if,but,when.OurrateoflossfromtheGreenlandandAntarcticaIceSheetsisincreasingandthisisexemplifiedthroughtheextremescenariothatwe’vepresented.

Wealsohavenewscientificevidencethathashighlightedthepotentialforextremesealevelrise.Whileourmodelresultshaverevealedthepotentialforthisextremesealevelrise;duringthiscenturytheprecisemagnitudeandtimingofwhentheAntarcticIceSheetmaybegintocontributetorisingsealevelshouldstillbeconsideredhighlyuncertain.

Theprobabilitiesofspecificsealevelriseincreasescaninformourdecisions.Thisisanexplanationforashiftfromthescenario-basedreporttolookingmoreatprobabilitiesorlikelihoods.

Ourcurrentpolicydecisionsareshapingourcoastalfuture.Sothereisalotofworkthatneedstobedoneoverthenextsixmonths.

Thelastpointhereisthatwaitingforscientificcertaintyisneitherasafenorprudentoption.Wedoneedtoconsiderextremesealevelrisesindecisionswithimplicationspast2015tosafeguardourpeopleandourresourcesacrosscoastalCalifornia.

WewillhaveourfirstworkshopinacoupleofweeksontheSouthCoastinLosAngeles.ThenwewillmovetotheBayAreaanddoajointworkshopwithSafeguardingandsealevelrisework.AndthenwewilldoaworkshopontheNorthCoastandfollowedbyaworkshopwiththeSafeguardingTeaminSanDiego.

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Throughoutallofthisthere’sgoingtobealotofadditionalcoordinationwithstateagenciesthroughourvariousworkinggroupsandindividualagencyconversationsaswell. CommissionerNelsoncommented:OneofthethingsthatIhavenoticedovertheyearsisthatovertimeourprojectionshaveoftencreptupandwecanseethiscomparedtoourpreviousguidance.It’sreallyhelpfultoseethisincorporationofprobability.Itgivesusamore,well-roundedunderstandingofthechallenge.ButasCommissionerGioiapointedout,itbringswithitmessagingchallenges. IwantedtomakesurethatIheardonethingcorrectly.IfIamrememberingcorrectlythereisonlyonemodelcurrentlylookingatAntarcticiceloss.Isthatright? Ms.Philipresponded:Ibelievethatisright.WecancheckwithCayanbuttheH++,ourextremescenario,isbasedononemodel.ItisbasedonthisNOAAmodel. CommissionerNelsoncontinued:OneofthedifferencesbetweenthisprojectionandthelastoneisthatthisonebeginstoincorporatetheprobabilityofAntarcticiceloss. WhatIthoughtthatdiscussionmeantwasthatallofthisprobabilityastotheextentthatitincludesAntarcticaicelossisbasedononemodelratherthanwhatwehaveoftenseenelsewhereasabroadrangeofmodelslookingatthisissue. Iwantedtoaskwhatthatsaystousabouttheprobabilityofthoseestimatesbeingrightorwrong.It’scomfortingbutnotpreciseifabroadrangeofmodelspointinthesamedirection.DowefaceagreaterriskofunderorovershootingifwerelyononemodelforAntarcticiceloss? Ms.Philipsanswered:IthinkthatisagreatpointandexactlywhythescientistswouldsaythatthisextremescenarioisstillhighlyuncertainbecauseitisbasedonthisonemodelfromNOAAthatwasreleasedthisyear. CommissionerNelsonstated:Sothatmeansnotunlikelybutuncertain;noprobabilityassignedtothat. Ms.Philipsreplied:Yes.Itissomethingthatweshouldthinkaboutandconsiderbutthere’sarapidevolutionofourscienceandourknowledgesorightnowwewantedtohavethatinbutitisbasedononemodel. ChairWassermanchimedin:Atsomelevel,asweallknow,theseareprobabilitiesandscientificallyinformedbutstillguesswork.Inthatcontextofguesswork,attheworkshopthismorning,GaryGriggstheChairoftheCouncil,whenpushed,essentiallysaid;hisguesswouldbeareasonableprojectionat2050wouldbeafootandahalftotwofeetandby2100threefeet,keepinginmindthoseareminimums. CommissionerMcGrathcommented:Aproposofthatandaproposofthecommentofcommunicatingthis;we’veseenatrialrunof2.7feetintheBayAreain1983.Ispentasignificantamountoftimestudyingthatandputtingonaworkshopaboutit.It’sunfortunatethatdroneshavecometousinthisdecadeandnotthatdecadebecausetherewouldbenothingthatcouldillustratetheproblemslikedronepicturesofhowmuchwasflooded.

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Oneofthethingsthatmighthelpexplainitarepresscoveragesofthe’83floodingbecauseyouhadbothcoastalfloodingandyouhadriverinefloodinganditwasreallywidespread.Wehaveseenit.It’snotlikewejusthavetomodelit.Wehadaprototypeanditwaslessthanthreefeet.Theideaofthreefeetasahydrologistjustscaresthebejabbersoutofme.

CommissionerGioiacommented:Tomethisalwaysgetstocommunicatingthedifferencebetweenwhathappensifwedon’tactversuswhatlesshappensifwedoactbecausewetalkaboutsealevelrisewillbeX.Andweknowitisinevitableatsomelevel.Itistryingtoconveyintermsthatpeoplewholivehereunderstand,notjustthenumberoffeetifwedon’tdoanythingbutitmeansthisshorelineisgoingtobeimpacted;somethingthattheyknow.

Hypotheticallyspeaking,OaklandairportrunwaywillbeinundatedandthiswillbetheeffectontheairportsatOaklandifwedon’tactversusifwedo.Thefolkswhoworkonthisunderstandwheretheimportantpointsarealongtheshoreline,themostvulnerableareas.WearelookingatthatwithBCDC’shelpalongtheContraCostashorelinesowecanconveyandsay,ifwedon’tact,herearetheareasthataregoingtogetinundatedandhereiswhatitisgoingtocost.

It’salmostlikeselectingpointsfromaroundtheBayAreathatpeopleunderstandandrelatetosothattheycanunderstandwhatthedifferenceisinthefutureandthenwhatitmeansforthem.Weshouldthinkaboutthat.

ChairWassermanagreed:WeabsolutelyshouldthinkaboutitandinpartIthinkthisisagoodbridgetoournextdiscussionontheStrategicPlan.Iwouldalsonotethatwe’vetriedtotacklethisverylargeproblemhereatBCDCinarelativelyorganizedwayinthesensethatwe’vehadtheworkshopsandworkinggroupsonrisingsealevel.Generally,thosemergedintoourCommissionworkshopswhichmergedintoourActionPlan;theBayFillWorkingGrouphasmovedtotheworkingworkshopsthatwearenowdoingattheCommissionlevel.Thefinancingpiecethatwearenowattheworkinggrouplevelwilldothesame.Andtheonebehindthatwhichinsomewaysmaybethemostimportantonebutneedstobeinfusedbyalltheothers;istheeducationalcampaignthatwearegoingtohavetoundertaketomakepeopleawareofthis,willingtoact,willingtosupportthevarietyofactionsandfundingactionsthatwillbenecessarytosuccessfullyadapttothisproblemthatweknowiscoming.

Thankyouverymuchforthepresentationandthework.ThatbringsustoadiscussionoftheStrategicPlan.

10.CommissionStrategicPlanDiscussion.ChairWassermanannounced:MattMarvinofKearnsandWestisherewhowillpresentthesummaryofwherewestand.

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Mr.MattMarvinaddressedtheCommission:IampartoftheteamthatisworkingwithstaffandCommissionerstoreviseandupdatethecurrentStrategicPlan.IamheretodaywithsomeofthemembersofthedraftingteamtoprovideandupdateontheDraftStrategicPlanrevisionprocess.Iwillstartwitharecapoftheprocesstodate.

ThedraftingteammemberswillthenprovideupdatesonspecificportionsofthePlanincludinggoalsandobjectives.Nextwewillgooverfuturestepsintherevisionprocessandallowyoualltoengageindiscussionaboutthedraftyouhavetoday.

Overthepastfewmonthswehavegottenanarrayoffeedbackfrommultipledifferentsources;theseincludesurveysintendedforCommissioners,forstaffandmembersofthepublictogaugetheeffectivenessofthecurrentplan.

WehavealsoconductedtwoworkshopswithstaffmembersandaCommissionerpublicworkshopinMarch.TherewerealsostaffassessmentsofthecurrentStrategicPlanthatweredonebyeachdivision.

Andfinally,therehavebeenreviewsessionswithseniorstaff,Commissionersanddivision-specificmeetingstoreviewthecurrentStrategicPlan.

ThisfeedbackinformedaniterativeprocessthatIwouldlikeLarrytodiscusstheintroductionafterwhichthedraftingteammemberswilldiscussgoalsandobjectives.

ExecutiveDirectorGoldzbandpresentedthefollowing:theDraftStrategicPlanUpdatethatyouhaveinfrontofyouwhichisarevisionofthecurrentStrategicPlanisnowinitseighthdraft.Weandthedraftingteamarenowcallingit7.1ifIremembercorrectly.Ithasbeeniterative.

Theintroductionwhichisaboutapageandahalflongessentiallycanbesummarizedinthisway,wefaceanawesomefutureatBCDCandweneedtotakeadvantageofit.InmanyrespectswhatyoujustheardaboutrisingsealevelandwhatweheardthismorningistheequivalentofAB32forBCDC.

Weneedtomovefromourcurrentorganizationalprocessesintosomethingthatisatahighergear.Thatmeansthatthepolicycontextsurroundingrisingsealevelanditsassociatedramificationsonourregulatory,planningandadministrativefunctionshasdramaticallyshiftedinthepast10years.Itwas10yearsagothatBCDCissuedthefirstinundationmaps.

ThepreviousStrategicPlanwasthefirstonetobedevelopedinrealpartnershipamongCommissioners,staffandthepublic.Itwasagreatfirststart.Ithasbeensomewhatsuccessful.

Therealchangebetweenthisthatyouareseeingandthecurrentplanisthatthisisfarmoredirective.ItisfarmoredirectivebecauseoverthepastthreetofouryearsBCDChasverymuchchangedinthewayitdoesbusinesswithregardtoCommissionersandwithregardtoCommissionersandstaffworkingtogether.Wehaveactuallygrownatremendousamountasastaffbaseduponwhatwe’velearnedfromtheBayPlanAmendmentsandouruseofthemandourplanningstructure.

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WehavethreegoalswithintheStrategicPlan.Thefirstistoaccomplishourdailystrategicworkwhichisn’tgoingtogoaway.Thesecondistoleadrisingsealevel,adaptationplanningeffortsthroughouttheBayArea.Andthethirdgoalistoimproveourorganizationalhealth.

Withoutthelatterwe’renotgoingtobeabletoaccomplishthefirsttwo.AndthatmeansthatwhenIamgoingtobeattheResourcesAgencyonMondayIamgoingtostartadvocatingformorestaffandmoreresources.

InsteadofmovingfrombeingthelittleenginethatcouldwhichhasbeenBCDC’smantrafor50years,wenowhavetoshifttoabigmightylocomotivebecausethat’stheonlywaythatweasstaffaregoingtobeabletoaccomplishourstatutoryresponsibilities.

WhetherResourcesandFinanceacceptsIcan’ttellyou.WearegoingtostartthatadvocacyprocessonMonday.

AnothermajordifferencebetweenthisupcomingStrategicPlanrevisionandthecurrentoneisthatwewillbetrackingitsimplementationinaverydetailedway.AftertheCommissionapproveswhateverthefinalplaniswewillthengooutwithacontracttocreateaworkplanwhichcanthenbefollowed,implemented,trackedandreportedupon.

Theotherissuetothinkaboutisthatwe’vehadsomediscussionaboutthevisionandyouwillseeinthePlanthevisionistobethenationalmodelforcoastalmanagement.

Wedidn’thaveavisioninthelastStrategicPlanbutthatvisionthatwehaveherewasverymuchincorporatedinthefirstgoal.Stafftookitoutandsaid,thisshouldbethevision.

Butthemissiondidnotchange.ThemissionisstilltoprotectandenhancetheSanFranciscoBayandencouragetheresponsibleandproductiveuseofitsresourcesforthisandfuturegenerations.Itiseitherthesameorveryclosetoit.

Iwouldfinishthisintroductorypartbysaying,yourOctober6threcommendations,yourpolicyrecommendationsonrisingsealevelhaveforcedustolookatthewaywearedoingbusinessandIjustcamebackfromLasVegasandastheywouldsayinLasVegas,whatwe’regoingtodoiswearegoingtogoallinbecausewedon’thaveanychoice.AndthatispartofwhatthemessageisgoingtobeonMondaywiththeResourcesAgency.

Nowlet’sgotothedraftingteamsotheycangoovergoalsone,twoandthreeandthenwe’llgoforquestions.Theywillcomeonupandintroducethemselvesandgofromthere.

SedimentProgramAnalystAnnikenLydonaddressedtheCommission:IamheretodiscussGoal1.AftermanydiscussionswithstaffandCommissionersgoalonewasdevelopedintothelanguagethatyouseeonpagefouroftheDraftStrategicPlanandalsoatthetopofthisslidewhichistoenhancetheuniquevalueoftheBayAreaandenableallitscommunitiestoflourish.

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ThisgoalanditsobjectivesencompasstheauthorityandthemandatesoftheAgencyandhasbeenrefinedprimarilytoguideandfocusourAgency’sregulatoryfunctionsinthecomingyears.

ItspecificallyfocussesonencouragingtheenhancementandconservationofnaturalresourcesoftheBayandimprovingshorelineareasandexperiencesforallcommunitiesintheregion.

ThisgoaldoesnotenumeratealloftheworkthattheregulatoryandtheplanningdivisionsaremandatedtoperformbutitemphasizeskeypriorityareastoguidetheAgency’sworkandeffortsoverthenextthreeyears.

Forexample,Objective1.1encouragesBayhabitatrestorationandincludesactionsensuringthatrestorationprojectsalignwithregionalrestorationgoalsandincreasingthestaff’scapacitytousethebestavailablesciencetoanalyzeemergingtrendsandhabitatrestoration.

Inaddition,anotherexampleinObjective1.3whichfocussesonupdatingkeystatutes,policiesandregulationsandincludesactionstoprioritizeandincorporaterecommendationsfromtheCommissionworkshopsintotheamendmentsorupdatesthatareidentifiedasbeingnecessary.

Someofthesimilaritiestothepreviousplanisthatthisgoalreflectsandcarriesforwardmanyoftheideasdevelopedforthe2013,2016StrategicPlanwhichincludebothobjectivesandactionsinthisnewplanandarerelatedtoimprovingpublicaccess,identifyingkeywaystoenhancethedynamicnaturalresourcesoftheBayandtheexperiencesofthepeoplewithinthesurroundingcommunities.Italsoincludesthedata-drivenenforcementprogram.

Someofthenewwaysthatthisgoalhasbecomemorefocusedincludeencouraginghabitatrestorationandenhancementprojectswhereappropriate;alsoidentifyingaprocessinthenearfutureforprioritizingandmovingforwardwithnecessarystatute,policyandregulationupdatesthatarewaysthatweasanAgencycanhelptheregionpreparenowforfuturerisingsealevelandchangingconditions.ThisgoalalsoincorporatesuponandbuildsuponmuchoftheongoingworkthathascomeoutoftheCommissionworkshopsoverthelastfewyearsandtoidentifytheupdatesthatmaybeurgentornecessary.

CoastalProgramAnalystToddHallenbeckpresentedthefollowing:TheoverallintentofGoal2istorecognizeandrefinetheexpandedroleofBCDCinhelpingtheBayAreaprepareforthechallengesofrisingsealevel.

ThegoalandmanyofitsobjectivescomedirectlyoutoftherecommendationsthatweremadeandadoptedbackinOctoberaswellasrecommendationsmadebythePoliciesforaRisingBayProjectcarriedoutlastyear.

Objective2.1isfocusedonBCDCleadingthedevelopmentofregionaladaptationplanningandusingtheARTapproachincludestheformationofaRegionalAdaptationPlanWorkingGroupwithpublic/privateNGOorganizationstounderstandvulnerabilitiesandrecommendadaptationapproaches.

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Objective2highlightstheimportanceofintegratingandsupportinglocaladaptationeffortswithaparticularfocusonenvironmentaljusticeissuesbyengagingabroadspectrumofstakeholders.

Objective3helpsBCDCincreaseitscoordinationbetweenregulatoryandplanningstaffinintegratingrisingsealevelinformationinourday-to-dayactivities.

Objective4recognizessedimentasaresourceandhighlightstheneedtoencouragethebeneficialreuseofsedimenttohelpmeetthechallengesofrisingsealevel.

Objective5promotestheadaptivemanagementtoaddressscientific,economicandsocietaluncertaintiesandincludesdevelopingapermittingtoolkittohelpclarifywhatshouldbeincludedinadaptationplansincludingmonitoringrequirements.

Objective6encouragesdevelopmentofgreeninfrastructuretoprotectourshorelinethroughthedevelopmentoftechnicalguidanceaboutthedesignandimplementationofthesetypesofprojects.

Objective7emphasizestheneedforarobustpublicoutreachcampaignandtounderstandandcommunicateregionalvulnerabilitiesandresilienceandincludesthedevelopmentofaregionalportaltocommunicateinformationanddatatothepublic.

Thesimilaritiestothepreviousplanincludethoseconceptsofreevaluatingpoliciestobetteraddressthechallengesofrisingsealevel,recognitionofthevalueofsometypesoffillandtheutilizationofacollaborativeapproachtofindregionalsolutionsanddevelopingapubliceducationcampaign;althoughthisgoalreallydoesfocusthoseconceptsonthechallengesofrisingsealevels.

Newconceptshavebeenaddedthatarerelatedtotheemphasisonenvironmentaljusticeissues;theinclusionofadaptivemanagementandgreeninfrastructureaspartoftheplan.

AssociateGovernmentalProgramAnalystChristineNutileaddressedtheCommission:Goal3istoimproveorganizationalhealthandperformance.TheoverallintentofGoal3istoaddressvitalneedspertainingtostaffing,workflowefficiencyandutilizingmoderntechnologies.

ManyoftheobjectivescoveredinGoals1and2aredependentonthesuccessofGoal3.StaffandtheSteeringCommitteehavecreatedtheobjectivesandproposedactionsyouseebeforeyou.

Wehaveasummaryofthefiveobjectiveslistedhereforyou.Objective3.1expandstaff.Objective3.2retaintoptalent.Objective3.3integratetechnology.Objective3.4improveinformationsharing.Objective3.5isbuildingourHRprogram.

Objective2and3speaktoourmostpressingorganizationalissues.InObjective3.2wefocusedonproposedactionsthatmakeBCDCagreatplacetoworkwhileprovidingaviablemeanstoearnagoodlivingintheBayArea.

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ToaccomplishthisobjectiveweareproposingthattheCommissionandseniorstafftakeactionstomaximizestaffpayandbenefitsandplacegreateremphasisonimprovingmorale.

InObjective3.3wewouldliketoemphasizethatourabilitytomorefullyincorporatetechnologyhasthepotentialtomaximizeourhumanresources.Toomuchoftheworkwedodependsonpaperprocessesthatrequiremanualdataentry.Wecanstreamlinemuchofthisworkbytransitioningtomoreofadigitalenvironment.

EnforcementAnalystMatthewTrujillopresentedthefollowing:Manyoftheobjectivesinthecurrentdraftplanaresimilartothoseofthepriorplan.Thepriorplanalsostressedtheimportanceofexpandingandretainingstaff,staffdevelopment,utilizingtechnologyandimprovingworkflow.

Inthisplanwemadesomechangestoreflectamoreholisticapproachtoaddressingsuchpressingissuesasstaffturnoverandpreservinginstitutionalknowledge.

Insteadofusingtheterm,“workenvironment”inthegoallanguageweusedtheterm,“organizationalhealth”.Thisreflectsamoreholisticapproach.

Thepriorplanalsotalksaboutdocumenting,“bestpractices”butinthecurrentplanwearegoingtostepfurtheraproposedactiontodevelopstandardizedprocedures;veryconcrete.

Thepriorplanalsoincludestheneedtodevelopandretainstaffasoneofitsobjectives.However,inthisplanweproposetoturnthoseintotwoseparateideasthatwouldallowustodevelopmorefocusedandachievablelistsofproposedactions.

Mr.Marvinofferedsomeclosingremarks:Intermsofnextstepswewilltakeanyfeedbackfromyoutodayandincorporatethatintoafurtherdraftbetweennowandtowardstheendofthemonth.Onthe26thwewilllooktogetyouanupdateddraftforconsiderationattheJune1stCommissionmeetingwhereyouwillconsidertheadoptionoftheStrategicPlan.

WewillopenthisupfordiscussionandIamhopingthatChairWassermanandCommissionersinvolvedwiththedraftingprocesswillbeabletoleadandfacilitatethediscussion.Thankyou.

ChairWassermancontinued:WelcomeCommissionerRanchodandweannouncedyourappointmentearlier.Weappreciateyoubeinghere.

CommissionerRanchodcommented:Iappreciatetheopportunity.Iamexcitedtohearthatwearegoingtobepreparingaworkplantotrackimplementationofeachofthesegoalsandobjectives.Arethereactuallygoingtobemeasurablemetricsorotherbenchmarksforeachobjectiveaspartofthat?Andarewegoingtogettoreviewthatthissummer?Canyouaddressthatfurther?

ExecutiveDirectorGoldzbandresponded:Whatstaffhasdonealreadyisunderneatheachoftheobjectivesarelistedanywherebetweenthreeandeightdifferentactionsthatthestaffisworkingontosay,thesedemonstratehowweneedtodothis.Eachofthosecanbemeasuredinsomeway,shapeorform;quantitativelyorqualitatively.

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Howthosearemeasuredwehaven’tfiguredoutyet.Wehaven’tfiguredoutexactlywhetherit’saprobabilisticthingorayes/nothingorwhateveritmightbe.Thatiswhatthenextcontractwillhelpusdo.

Ithastobearrangedinsuchawaythatthestaffcanfollowitandthatwecanthenpresentittoyouinawaythatyoucanfollowit.

CommissionerRanchodhadmorequestions:Isthereaplanforoncewegetthroughallofthatandhavethedocumentready;isthereaplanforbringingitbackonsomeregularbasisbeforetheCommission?

ExecutiveDirectorGoldzbandanswered:Quarterly.Idon’tthinkwewoulddoeverythingquarterly.Wemighttakeagoalayearoragoaleveryquarterorsomethinglikethat.

CommissionerNelsoncommented:Ihavetwobig-picturecommentsandIwanttothankLarryabouthisopeningcommentsaboutstartingtheconversationwithresourcesaboutresourcesbecausetwothingsarecleartomebasedonourlasttwoyears’worthofpresentationsandtheRisingTidesWorkGroup.

Thefirstisaverysimplerealization–theCommission’sfocustraditionallyhasbeentoissuepermits.Andourmessagetolocalgovernments,generallyinthepastis;don’tbotheruswhenyouareplanning,sendusyourpermittees.Sendusfolksonceyouhavegiventhempermits.

Thatisnotgoingtowork.It’sveryclearthatthereisgoingtobeamuchmoreevensplitbetweenourfocuspermitsandourfocusonplanning.Thereisgoingtobeadramaticincreaseinplanning.

Wearedoingmorethanweweredoingfiveyearsago.Andfiveyearsfromnowwearegoingtobedoingalotmorethanwearedoingtoday.Sothatconversationaboutresourcesisreallyimportant.

IalsowantedtomentiononeotherplacethatIreallyhadnotbeenfocusedonuntilwewerewellintoourpresentationsaboutsealevelriseimpactsandhowwedealwiththat;we’vebeenissuingpermitsfor50yearstopermitteeswhohavealegalresponsibilitytomaintainpublicaccessinperpetuity.

Andwenowhave,wearenowissuingpermitsthatreflectaneedforadaptivemanagementtorespondtosealevelrise.Inthepastwehavenotputalotofresourcesintoenforcementandwe’vehadtheluxuryofhavingstaffonweekendsbicyclingpastanapplicantandseeingiftheyhavefinishedthepathlet’ssay.

Oncetheybuildtheamenities,oncetheycompletedconstruction;wethoughtourjobwasdoneexceptforafewapplicantshereandtherewhowouldviolaterequirementsforpublicaccess.Wearefacingaverydifferentworld.

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Wehavehundredsofapplicantswhosejobistomaintainpublicaccessinperpetuity.AsweseesealevelrisecreepingupthatisgoingtobeagreaterandgreaterchallengeforpermitteesaroundtheBayArea.Andassealevelrisesouradaptivemanagementrequirementsaregoingtokickin.Andthatisgoingtorequiremuchmoreactivemonitoringandenforcementwithregardtopermitteesthanwehavetraditionallydone.

ThatisonethatIhadnotreallybeenthinkingabouttwoyearsagowhenwestartedthisprocess.WhenwethinkofslicesofthepieI’vetraditionallythoughtaboutourplanningsideandourpermittingsideanditwascleartomethatplanningwasgoingtoincrease.ButthereisawholeenforcementchallengeherethatwereallyhavenotbeenthinkingaboutsomuchattheCommissionlevel.Ijustwantedtohighlightthat.

ExecutiveDirectorGoldzbandcommented:IurgeyoutolookatObjective1.4withthesecondproposedactionwhichis,developandimplementapermitcompliancesystem.OneofthethingsthatAdrienneKleinwhoissittingintheaudiencehasbeenscreamingaboutforanynumberofyearsisthatshedoesnothaveenoughstafftoreallydoenforcementmuchlesscompliance.

PartofwhattheEnforcementCommitteehasdoneanincrediblygoodjobwithduringthepastfiveorsixmonthswiththehelpofCommissionersislookingatastrategytoactuallybeabletoenabletheenforcementteamtoprioritizewhatitneedstodoandtoincludecomplianceaspartofthat.ThatwillbepartofthediscussiononMonday.

CommissionerMcGrathfoundtheconversationthoughtprovoking:Iamexcitedaboutthis.Formanyyears,sincethetimeIhavebeenontheCommission;BCDChasdonestrategicplanningwellandit’sgettingbetter.Andit’sgettingmoreandmoreorientedtowardstheactivitiesofthestaffandmeasurablesandthosearethereformsthatareneeded.

Ihavetwokind-ofquibblesthatdon’thavetodowiththegoalsbuthavetodowiththewordingandmakingsurethattheyareasaccurateastheyneedtobe.

ThefirstoneisObjective2.4.It’sanobjectivetoincreasetheuseofsedimentwhetherit’sdredgedsedimentorit’smaterialclearedfromfloodcontrolchannelsorfillontheflyifit’scleanenough;thelanguagehereIwouldurgeshouldbeacollaborativelanguageratherthanaregulatorylanguage.There’stheoldsayingthatiftheonlytoolyouhaveisahammeryouthinkthateveryproblemisanail–but,infact,notallproblemsarenails.

Ithinktheideaofcollaborativeandincentiveprogramstoincreaseuseofsedimentwouldbeamoreeffectivewording.

Objective2.6;theterm,greeninfrastructure–thisisaproblematicterm.Thoseofuswhohavedealtwithlegislationandcourtcasesknowthatyoucannotusethesametermforfiveorsixdifferentthings.Youcan’tusesynonymsforthesamething.Thecourtsjustdon’tletyoudothat.Greeninfrastructuremeansinsomecontexts,we’regoingtomakesurethatwatergetsintothegroundsothatwe’regoingtoreuseitfordrinkingwatersupplies;thatis

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onedefinition.InthecontextoftheRegionalBoard’sregionalstormwaterpermititmeansthatyouaregoingtocleanupthewateroftrashandothercontaminantsbeforeitgoesintotheBay.Andthereisathirddefinitionherewhichisasoftshoreline.

I’msuretherearemore.Wereallyneedtobeclear.Ihavenoproblemwiththegoalhere.Ijustwanttomakesurethatthelanguageisnotambiguous.I’vesaidthisbeforeandI’mgoingtosayitagainuntilthelanguageisnotambiguous.

Ifwemeansoftshorelinesorthingslikethat;that’sthetermweshoulduse,notatermwhichalsomeansseveralotherthings.

CommissionerPinehadquestions:IhadacoupleofquestionsonObjective1.1andmaybeaquestionaboutthewordingatthehighlevelforthegoal.Thesecondtothelastbulletpointtalksabout,standardizethemonitoringplanrequirementsforrestoration.Iknowthereisalotofdiscussionamongagenciesaboutmonitoringandthat’salsopartofthepermitburden.I’mnotfamiliarwithBCDC’sWetlandHabitatAssessmentTeam.Canyoutellmealittlebitaboutthatorwhatwehopeitmightbe?

Iwouldalsoliketoknowtowhatextentthiswouldbeaneffortthatwouldincorporatethemanyagencieswhoareconcernedaboutmonitoring.

Ms.Lydonresponded:FortheWetlandHabitatAssessmentTeam,that’saninternalagencyteamthat’sformedmostlywithregulatorystaffandsomeplanningstaff.Wehavegottentogetherafewtimestolookatmonitoringreportsthathavecomeinandhowwearereviewingthose;differentparametersthatareinthemonitoringplansandthatarebeingreported.Thisactionwastryingtogetatmakingiteasierforourregulatorystafftoknowwhentheygetamonitoringplanforarestorationprojectthattheplanisconsistentwithalltheothermonitoringthatwearerequiringforotherareas.Granted,howthatmonitoringactuallyhappensisprobablygoingtobesite-specificanddifferentbutwewanttomakesurethatsomeoftheparametersthatarebeingreportedareconsistent.

Forourstaffwewanttohaveconsistencyknowingthatwe’regoingtorequire,youknow,10yearmonitoringplansconsistentlyacrosstheboard.Itistryingtoresolvemakingiteasierforstaffreviewofmonitoringplansthatcomein.

ExecutiveDirectorGoldzbandadded:Itgoestheotherwaytoo.Ifyouhaveaconsistentsetofstandardsthatyouuse;ifyouconsistentlyrequiremonitoringofcertainthingsthenpermitapplicants,beforetheyevenstart,recognizewhatitisthatBCDCneedsfromthemanddiscussionscanoccurfromthatpointaboutwhatadaptivemanagementandmonitoringreallyincludes.

Mr.Goldbeckagreed:That’sexactlyright.Iwasgoingtoaddthatwearealsolookingatitfromtheotherstandpointintermsoftheotheragenciesandtryingtocoordinatewhatthepermittingrequirementsarefromothersandtotheextentthatwecanhaveonesetofrequirementsandalsotheeffortthatisnowstartingtobelookedatintermsofregionalmonitoringasopposedtoagencybyagency.

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Wearetryingtoputtogetherallofthat.Itactuallycamedowntothatwewerelookingatsomemonitoringplansandasking,hasanybodyreadthese?Aretheythingsweneedtobetracking?It’sgrownintothiseffortanditisgoingtohelpintermsofthatregulatoryburdenaswell.Itwillhelpusanditwillhelptheregulatedcommunity.

CommissionerPineinquiredaboutmonitoring:I’mnotclearandIhavealottolearnaboutmonitoring.ShouldthisbestandardizedBCDC’smonitoringplan?Manyagencieshavemonitoringplans.WhenIreadthatI’mnotsureiftheyarereferringtoourownortoallofthem.

Ms.Lydonanswered:It’stheoneswewouldrequiretobesubmittedforBCDC’spermittingpurposes.WecanaddBCDCintheretoclarifythat.

CommissionerPinecontinued:Thereisthenextlevelupwhichisacoordinationeffort.Onthefinalbulletpointtounderstandwhat,trackauthorizedrestorationprojectsmeans;IthinktherearesomeothergroupsthatdothisnowliketheSanFranciscoBayJointVenture.TheyhaveaprettygoodinventoryoftheprojectsthathavebeendonetodateandIhaveaquestionaboutwhetherwearethinkingofcreatingadatabaseorwhetherthattrackisbeingusedmoreinformally?

Mr.Goldbeckreplied:Weactuallyhaveaprojecttrackingsystem,aGISsystemin-house.Wehavelinkedupwiththeseothereffortsandwearesharingdatalayers.Soweareconvergingonthis.

Ms.Lydonadded:Thisalsomakessurethatwearetrackingthesuccessoftherestorationovertimeandhowmanyacresareactuallybeingrestoredandtowhatstate.

CommissionerPineexplained:AstheRestorationAuthoritybeginstorampupandworkstartstogetdone;wewantthepublictobewellawareoftheprogressandtheextentthatsomeofthisisaccessibletothepublic.

TherearesomeothereffortsandobviouslyBCDCneedstotrackitspermitsanditisdoingthisworkaswell.Maybewecanthinkmoreaboutthisaswegoforward.

Finally,ifIjustpickedupthispaperandreadGoal1,enhancetheuniquevalueoftheBayAreaandenableallcommunitiestoflourish;ifthatisallIread.IwouldneverthinkthatwasBCDC.IwouldthinkthatwasABAGorMTC.Thatiskindlikethemissingregionalgovernment.Imighttrysaying,enhancetheuniquevalueoftheSanFranciscoBayandpublicaccesstotheshorelineorsomethinglikethat.Iwillgivethattoyouforyourconsideration.

CommissionerPeskincommented:IfundamentallyagreethatGoal3isinextricablylinkedto1and2.Thisisa1.1commentunderProposedActions.Iwasthinkingthattheincreasedstaffcapacitymaynotbelonginthatsecondbullet.Ithinkit’sspokentoinGoal3.IthinkifwejustusethebestavailablescienceandunderstandemergingtrendsandthestaffcapacityisspokentoinGoal3;minorcomment.

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Ms.Lydonasked:Soyouaresaying,removethatproposedactionbecauseyouthinkitiscoveredinGoal3?

CommissionerPeskinexplained:No.I’msayingjustremovethe,increasestaffcapacity.IacknowledgethatincreasedstaffisneededforthatbutIthinkthatisspokentoinGoal3.

CommissionerMcGrathhadreservationsaboutresponsestoCommissionerPine’squestion:IamstillalittletroubledbytheresponsetoCommissionerPine’scommentaboutmonitoringrequirements.CertainlyweneedtomonitortoknowprogressbutweshouldcoordinatethatmonitoringwithotheragenciesratherthanfeaturejustBCDC’s.

Thereisadistinctionbetweenarestorationplan;norestorationprojectthatIhaveeverseenhasmetallofitsgoals.Thatdoesn’tmeanitwasn’tareallygoodthingandthemonitoringismoreonmakingsurethatwecontinuetoadvancethescienceratherthansomethingforthemostpartthatisgoingtobeamatterofcompliance.

Ontheotherhand,mitigation–thereisacompliancequestionbecauseyouhavelostsomethingandinrestorationyouhavenot.Andthatiskindoflostinhere.Iwouldliketoseethisbejustalittlebitmoreuser-friendlysoitgotacrosstheideathatmonitoringisgoingtobecoordinatedamongtheagenciesforefficiencyanduser-friendliness.That’sthemorethemessageIwouldliketohearoutofthis.

AndcertainlyIthinkweoughttomonitormitigationbutIdon’tthinkwenecessarilyneedtoputthatinourStrategicPlan.GiventheattentionthatbeingefficientwithMeasureAAfundshasgotten,I’djustliketosendagoodmessageherethatwearegoingtocoordinateourmonitoringwiththeotheragencies.

Mr.Goldbeckreplied:Thatisourintentionandwewillworkonlanguagetoclarifythat.

CommissionerShowaltercommented:Ifeelverystronglyaboutwhatyoujustsaid.Ithinkthatthereismonitoringandtrackingthatisdoneonavarietyoflevels.Andbecausewearereallyworkingwithnewrestorationscience;whenyouthinkoftrackingandmitigationweusuallylookat,youknow,didtheyplantXnumberoftrees,didtheyrestoresomanyacres,thatkindofthing.Thatisallwellandgoodtodobutinadditiontothatinadaptivemanagementweneedtodoscientificinvestigationsthatmaynotbeassociatedwithanyspecificprojectnecessarilyoranyspecificconstructionproject;tosay,thesearetheprocessesorthesearethethingsthataregoingonsowecandoabetterjobofthis.

Adaptivemanagementreallyneedstoincludethetrackingoftheacreagesandmorefishandmorebirdsandthatkindofstuffwith;diditworkordidn’titworkandwhy.Ifwedon’tgettothe,diditworkordidn’titworkandwhythenwe’renotgoingtobeusingthepublics’moneyefficientlyandwe’renotgoingtobemeetingtheincredibleneedsthatwehavetoprotecttheBayAreafromsealevelrise.

Fortyor50yearsagowejustthoughtofcountingthingsandatthispointthatisnotwhatweneedtodo.Wereallyneedtosupportthescience.

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Iliketheuseof,“bestavailablescience.”Ilovethatphrase.Thisismusictoourearsinthescientificcommunity.Thisusedtobejustastatementbutnowit’sapoliticalstatement.Iamreallygladit’sinthere.

Ireallyliketheideathatthisisshortandsweetbecauseintheenvironmentalfieldwehaveatendencytobeveryloquacious.Wecreatethesedocumentsthatwemeasureinhowmanyinchesthicktheyareandthatkindofthingandtheresultofthatisthatpeopledon’treferthemnearlyasoftenastheyshould.Thisisveryshortandsweet.Peoplewillbeabletoflipthroughthisin15minutestofindwhattheyneedtofind.Ithinkthatisgreat.

TheotherthingthatIamreallypleasedtoseeinhereistheveryexplicitdiscussionoftheuseofsediment.ThatisahugepartofthehistoryofthisorganizationanditissomethingthatreallyneedstochangegoingforwardsothatwecanrestoretheshorelineandhelpwithlandsubsidencethathasbeenparticularlyegregiousintheSouthBay.

Iurgepeopletotakesomequietmomentsandreadthisthroughandthinkaboutthecorrections.

CommissionerGorincommented:We’vehadanumberofsmalldiscussionsaroundthepostersprojectsthatwehavebeenworkingon.ItboilsdowntotheroleofBCDCandourlocaljurisdictions.Dowehavearoleinpromotingbetterplanningandbetterdiscussionatthelowerlevel?

WorkingwithABAGandMTCweabsolutelyshouldbepursuinganyopportunityavailabletomakesurethatourlocalgovernmentlevelsunderstandwhatitiswe’refacing.Theyonlyupdatetheirgeneralplans,maybethehousingelement,onceeverysevenyears.Iftheycanfindthemoney,thegeneralplan,maybeonceevery10years.WehadbetterworknowtomakesurethatwehavetheopportunitiestoworkwiththosecountiesandcitiesmovingforwardwiththeirgeneralplanstogivethemthetoolsonvulnerabilityassessmentsandthelanguagethatshouldbeincorporatedintheirgeneralplansespeciallyforthosecitiesandcountiesthatmaybeaffectedbyBaylevelriseandtidalincreasesandinfluences.

IdidnotseelanguageinherecallingoutBCDCandthestafftoworkprettyaggressivelywiththeplanningagenciesaroundtheBaytoensureortoprovideorhelptogivethemtheinformationandtogivethemthelinksonwheretheyshouldbeaccessinginformationforwhatwehavebeendoingandthetoolkits,especiallyforsomeofthetoolkitsconnectingtoregulatoryagencies.

AndjustaminorlittlelanguagechangethatwemightconsiderunderObjective1.2talkingaboutexpandingandpromotingdiverse,high-qualitypublicaccess;whenwearetalkingaboutdevelopingaregulatorytoolkittofacilitateIwouldadd,thedesign,theuseandenjoymentbecausenoteveryentityunderstandswhatdesignreallymeansespeciallyinlightofrisingtides.

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ThisisagreatjobandIloveditanditwasimportant.I’mreallyconcernedabouthowwearegoingtouseit,howwearegoingtoeducatefolksaboutitandespeciallyworkwiththosecommunitieswhoarenowengagedinthegeneralplandiscussions.

ChairWassermancontinued:Thankyouverymuchfortheworkandthepresentationandwelookforwardtoversioneightor7.2orhoweveryouwanttolabelit.

ExecutiveDirectorGoldzbandadded:Commissionersyouhaveanabsolutelyawesomegroupofdrafters.Thestaffinvolvedhasworkedtirelesslyonthis.Theyhavetakenituponthemselvestodomorethanjustcoalesce.Theyaremakingdecisions.Theyareanalyzingandtheyknowtheycan’teverybodyhappybuttheyalsoknowthatwhatthey’redoingisactuallygoingtobeincrediblyimportantandsotheyarewillingtotakesomeheat.

ChairWassermanmovedtoItem11ontheAgenda.

11.BriefingonFloodControl2.0.SedimentProgramManagerBrendaGoedenpresentedthefollowing:WearemovingfromtheStrategicPlanwhichincludessealevelrise,floodingandsedimentintoabriefingonFloodControl2.0.ThiswasaprojectfundedthroughtheWaterQualityImprovementGrantsoftheEPA.

Wearegoingtogiveyouaquicksnapshotofthetoolsandtheoutcomesoftheproject.Itwasafour-yeareffortbyagroupoffolksfromtheSanFranciscoEstuaryProject,theSanFranciscoEstuaryInstitute,BCDCandtheSanFranciscoBayJointVenture,aswellastheBayAreaFloodProtectionAgencyAssociation(BAFPA).

Todaymypartnersincrime,ScottDusterhoffandAdrienBaudrimountareheretotalktoyoutodayabouttheproject.Wewillsharethepresentationbecausetherearemultiplepieces.

Mr.AdrienBaudrimountaddressedtheCommission:WearegoingtostartwithabriefpresentationofwhatFloodControl2.0is.Iampleasedtobereportingonthecompletionofthisproject.Itwasafour-yearprojectanditwascompletedattheendof2016.FloodControl2.0isaboutrestoringhabitatandshorelineresilienciesthroughanewgenerationoffloodcontrolchanneldesignandmanagement.Weknowthatwearefacingagingfloodprotectioninfrastructurethatincreasestheeconomiccostsandrisksinthefaceofriverfloodingandsealevelrise.Thetidalfluvialinterfaceiswhereallofourwetlandsareandisanincrediblyimportantareaofoursystem.

Selevelriseisarealityandwearegoingtohavetobepreparedforit.ThequestionweaskedishowcanwemeetfuturefloodcontrolneedsandalsorestoreandimprovethefutureecosystemfunctionsattheBayinterface?Theprojectwasdesignedaroundthreemaincomponents.Thefirstcomponentisresearchandthatiscomposedofachannelsynthesis,aregulatoryanalysisandaneconomicanalysis.Thiswillbepresentedinmoredepthlaterinthispresentation.Thesecondcomponentofthisprojectisimplementation.WewereveryluckytobeworkingwithlocalfloodcontrolprotectionagenciesfromaroundtheBay.Weworkedwith

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NovatoCreek,SanFrancisquitoCreekandWalnutCreek.Theywereallindifferentstagesofplanningandimplementation.Thethirdcomponentisthehighlightofthispresentation.Thiscomponentisthetoolbox.Thisisagroupofonlineresourcesaccessiblethroughawebpage,andamongalltheresourcesisSediMatch,whichisanonlinedatabasetofindandlocateavailablesediment.Thereisalsoaregulatoryguidancedocument;abenefit/costassessmentmodelandseveralpodcasts.Allthreecomponentsareworkingtogetherfeedingintoeachother.

Mr.Dusterhoffspoke:Fortheremainderofourpresentationwearegoingtowalkthroughsomeofthetoolswithinouronlinetoolbox.Iamgoingtostartoutbytalkingaboutourregionalchannelsynthesisorwhatwecallourregionalchannelanalysis.

Theoutputfromthisworkinareportthatwejustreleasedcalled,ChangingChannels.ThisanalysisentailedlookingatthechangeinchannelgeomorphologyattheBayinterface.SoweidentifiedallthechannelsthathistoricallydrainedintotheBay.Manyofthosechannelshavechangedoverthepast150yearsandnowincludefloodchannels.Wethendidaregionalsedimentanalysislookingatthesupplyofsedimenttothesechannelsaswellastheamountofsedimentthatisdepositedandremovedfromthesechannels.Andthenwesynthesizedourfindingsintohigh-levelmanagementrecommendationsforthesemajorfloodcontrolchannelsaroundtheBaythatdraintotheBayfocusingongettingthesedimentfromthechannelsoutontoadjacenttidalmarshlandswheretheycanactuallyhavesomegoodintermsofmaintainingtidalhabitatsovertime.

WecreatedamapthatyouseehereofthechannelsthatdrainedtotheBayhistorically.OrangeischannelsthatcameoutofwatershedsanddraineddirectlytotheBay.BlueisthechannelsthatcameoutofwatershedsandthenconnectedtoatidalchannelnetworkwiththeBaylands.GreenisthechannelscameoutofwatershedsandthenspreadoutontheBaylands.Redisthechannelsthatdidn’tactuallymakeittotheBaylandsthatcameoutofwatershedsandthenpeteredoutonthesebroadalluvialplains.Thisiswhatwehadinthe1850’s,andthisslideshowswhatwehavetoday.Youwillseethatthemarkersonthemaphavechangedcompletely,whichcreatesahighlymodifiedlandscape;youdon’thavemanyofthosenaturalconnectionsanymore.Asweknow,mostofourchannelsnowcomeoutofwatershedsandflowthroughaleveeordikedchannelsbeforegettingouttotheBay.AnotherthingtopointoutisalltheseblackXs-theyrepresentchannelsthatwereonthehistoricallandscapebutarenowgone.Theyareeithercompletelyfilledinortheyhavebeenpipedunderground.Thatrepresentsaboutonethirdofthechannelsorabout100channelsthatwerehistoricallyonthelandscapethatarenowgone.Thisanalysishelpedustoreachsomehigh-levelthoughtsaboutmanagementapproachesforthesechannelsattheBayinterface.

Thenextpieceofthisanalysisiswhatwearecallingtheregionalsedimentanalysis.Westartedoutbylookingatwatershedsedimentsupply.Firstwediscoveredthat,sincethemid-50s,theaverageannualsedimentyieldcomingoutofallthewatershedsthatdraintotheBayis

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aboutamilliontonsperyear.Amilliontonsofsedimentwouldfillaboxthatisapproximately275feetoneachedgeThat’showmuchsedimentwouldfitinsideaboxthatsize.Wealsofoundthatofallthatsediment,ofalltheonemilliontonscomingoutonaverageperyear;thelion’sshare,abouttwo-thirdsofthatsedimentcomesfromjustfourwatersheds.Thesearefourofourbiggestwatersheds.Thefactthattwo-thirdsofallofthatsedimentcomesfromjustfourwatershedswasalittlesurprisingtous.Partofthisanalysisdealtwithin-channelsedimentremoval.Sincethelate50swelearnedthatapproximatelysixmillioncubicyardsofsedimenthasbeentakenfromthesefloodcontrolchannelsattheBayinterface.

Thistime,sixmillioncubicyardswouldfitintoaboxthatisabout550feetoneachedge.Thatisaverylargebox.Wefoundthatthesedimentremovallocationandamountsforthesemajorfloodcontrolchannelsvariednotonlybysedimentsupplybutalsobychannelmanagementapproach.Forinstance,manyofthefloodcontrolchannelsthatareleveeddownintheirtidalreaches,thatleveeingofthesefloodcontrolchannelsinthetidalzonecausesthetidalscourofthosechannelstogodownwhichmeanssedimentaccumulationgoesup.Sothatisamanagementapproachthatdrivessedimentaccumulation.

Thenwetookthechannelmorphologyworkandtheregionalsedimentworkandwebroughtthemtogetherintomulti-benefitmanagementmeasuresforthemajorfloodcontrolchannels;nowfocusingonabout33channelsaroundtheBay.ThesemeasuresaimedatgettingsedimentoutofthesechannelsandontoadjacentBaylands.Forthe24channelshighlightedherewerecommendedconnectingthecreekdirectlybacktotheBaylands.Thismeansthatthesechannelsarecurrentlyleveedbutthereislandadjacenttothoseleveesthatcanbeopenedbackuptotidalaction.Andthereactuallyisanopportunitytogetthesedimentoutofthesechannelsandontotheseadjacentlands.Therearealsoseveralchannels,sixshownhere,thatarehighlyconstrainedbyinfrastructurenexttothechannel.Thoseleveesaregoingtoneedtostayinplacetoprotectlifeandproperty.Forthosechannels,weknowthattheyaregoingtocontinuetobedredgedandwerecommendsedimentreuseforthosechannels.Sowewouldbeusingthatsedimentthatisgoingtobecontinuedtobedredgedlocallytohelpbuildouttidalhabitatsassealevelcontinuestorise.

NowIamgoingtobrieflytouchupontheworkthatwedidwiththefourimplementationprojectsthatAdrienmentionedearlier.Threeimplementationprojectsiteswedidananalysiswherewecomparedhistoricallandscapeandhistoricalhabitatstocontemporaryconditionsasawayofhelpingusidentifymulti-benefitmanagementactionsthatcanbringbacksomeofthosehabitatsbutalsomeettherequiredleveloffloodmanagement.ForSanFrancisquitoCreekwedidwhatwecallalandscapechangeanalysis.Wedevelopedamapofthehistoricallandscapethatyouseethereonthebottomleft;that’scirca1850.Wedevelopedamapofthecontemporarylandscapefocusingonthehabitattypes.Andthenwedidananalysisofhowmuchchangeinacreageofdifferenthabitattypestherehasbeen.Thishelpsusgettorestorationtargets.Ithelpsusidentifywhathabitatswecanbringbackthataregoingtobenefitwildlifebutalsohavesomefloodmanagementbenefitsaswell.

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ForNovatoCreekwedidasimilarthing;constructedamapofthehistoricallandscape,historicalhabitattypes–butthenweworkedwithagroupofourpartnersandregionalscienceexpertsandasaprojectteamthroughaone-dayworkshopcameupwithalong-termmanagementvisionforLowerNovatoCreekandthatiswhatyouseehere.Thisvisionhasanarrayofmanagementconcepts;thosearelistedthereontheright.Theideahereisthattheseconceptsenactedtogetherwouldmakethislandscapemoreresilienttoarisingsealevel,wouldhavehabitatbenefitsandwouldalsohavefloodmanagementbenefitsaswell.

ThelastimplementationprojectwasLowerWalnutCreek.WedidthesamethingaswedidforNovatoCreek.Welookedatthehistoricallandscapeandhabitattypes.Youseethatontheleft.Youseecontemporarylandscapeontheright.Throughaone-dayworkshopweworkedwithourpartnerandregionalscienceadvisorstocomeupwithasuiteofmanagementconceptsthataremulti-benefitandputthosetogetherintoavision.IwanttopointoutthatwearehavingasimilarvisioningworkshopwithCommissionerShowalterandhercolleaguesatSantaClaraValleyWaterDistrictinJunefocusingontheSouthBayshoreline.

Ms.Goedencontinued:WhenwegotstartedonthisprojectitactuallycameoutofdiscussionwiththeBayAreafloodprotectionagenciesatoneoftheirmeetings.Weweretalkingaboutsedimentissuesandwelandedonthefactthattherearealsoregulatoryissues.Thisisbeforeweeventhoughtaboutrequestingagranttoexaminethisissue.OneofthethingsweheardfromtheBayAreafloodprotectionagenciesisthattheywerehavingareallyhardtimewiththeregulatoryworld.AsweformedthegrantrequestandthepartnershipbetweentheorganizationsworkingonthegrantBCDCgotassignedtheregulatoryanalysis.

Oursedimentmanagementteamdidanumberofthings.Welookedatthewholesuiteofregulationsandrequirementsthatfloodprotectionagencieshadtogothroughinpermittingmaintenanceandnew-workprojects,orcapitalprojects.Wedidthisanalysisbasedoncasestudies.WewentandlookedattheNapaRiverLivingRiverProject,whichisthefive-starfloodprotectionprojectintheregion.It’saprettyamazingproject.WealsolookedatNovatoCreek,theirmaintenanceprogram,someoftheworktheyhavedoneoverthelast25years,andtheirpermitting.

TheSanFrancisquitoCreekhappenedtobeinpermitprocessduringthisevaluationanditwasparticularlyinterestingbecausethereweresomechallengestothatprojectgettingthroughtheregulatoryprocess.WelookedatWalnutCreekwhichwasnotyetinaregulatoryprocessbutwasdoingsomethingverydifferentthanmostofthefloodprotectionagencies.Theyfoundthattheycouldnotdoworkforfloodprotectionintheirchannel,LowerWalnutCreek,undertheCorps’floodprotectionprogrambecauseitrequiredatrapezoidalchannelandtheyhadsomanywildliferesourcesthere.TheyjustcouldnotdowhattheCorpsrequiredthroughthenationalfloodprotectionpoliciesandmeettheresourceagencyrequirements.Theyactuallywentthroughade-authorizationprojectandwenttoCongresstogettheirprojectde-authorized,whichmeanttheylostsomefederalfunds,butitgavethemthefreedomtoredesignLowerWalnutCreek.

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So,withinthetoolbox,therearefourcasestudiesthatareavailable.Theyareabout25pageslongthatlookatdifferentissuesforeachproject.Thatwaspartofthebasisofourunderstandingwhatwashappeningintheregulatoryworldforfloodprotectionprojects.Asyouknow,BCDCdoesn’tdoalotwithfloodprotectionbecauseourjurisdictionissosmall.

Thenextthingwedidiswewentthroughthelawsandpoliciesandtriedtoputtogetheradocumentthatmadesenseofthewholethingforafloodprotectionagency,thepublic,regulatoryagenciesandhowitworksandwhototalktoetcetera.AndwhatthatdocumentdoesisittriestoexplainthechartyouseeonthescreenwhichistheBayArearegulatoryprocessandwhogivespermitsforwhat,inwhatorder,andwhat’srequiredofeach.Theregulatoryanalysisisabout85pageslong.

Aftertheregulatoryanalysiswecompletedaseconddocument,whichisthefindingsoftheregulatoryanalysisandhowyoumightmoveforwardtoimprovetheprocess.Theguidancedocumentprovidesrecommendationsonhowyoumightchangetheprocessforall.Ittalksabouteverythingfromhowyoucouldchangepermitapplications,howyoumightdocoordinationdifferently,wherecoordinationisdonewellandwhereitisnotdonesowell;iteventalksaboutwhatIcallthehumanfactor,whichiswherewegethungupsometimes.

Italsoprovidesactionsintheshort,mediumandlongtermthatcanbeundertaken.Thisdocumentis20pageslongandithasachartlikethisthatwalksyouthroughdifferenttypesofimprovementsontheregulatoryside,ontheprojectsideandontheshort,mediumandlongterm.Itwasveryinterestingandagreateducationalprocessformeandmyteamtogothroughthisandreallyunderstandsomeofthechallengesataverydeeplevel.

ThenextthingIamgoingtotouchonisSediMatch,whichisaslightlydifferentpieceofthispie.Oneoftheotherthingsthatwehaveheardisthatitwouldbereallyniceiftherewasawaythatwecouldmatchthesedimentneedswiththesedimentsupplyinaneasierfashion.Intheearlydaysofthisweactuallysetupalittlematchingworkshoportwowherewehadpeoplewhoweknewneededsedimentandpeoplewhohadsedimentinthenearbyareaandhadthemtalkanditkindofworked.Wemadeacoupleofmatchesbutwerealizedwecouldnotdothatforeveryproject.SoSFEIandSanFranciscoBayJointVenturedevelopedawebtool.Ithasacoupleofdifferentcomponents,itismeanttobeverysimpletouse.

ThereisamapcomponentoftheBayArea,withdotsandtriangles,thedotsareprojectswhowantsedimentandtrianglesareforprojectsthathavesedimentavailable.ItisnotwellpopulatedquiteyetbecauseitwasjustreleasedinFebruary.Weneedpeoplenowtohelpuspopulateit.

Topopulateit,thereisashortformthatasksafewquestionsaboutwhetherornotyouhavesand,mud,graveletcetera;ifit’scover,foundationmaterial,orthequalityofthesediment,whothecontactinformationis,wherethelocationofyoursiteisandhowmuchyouhave.Andthenyouputitupthereandit’skindofawantadorasedimentmatchforfolks.Youcangoonlineanddownloadthedatasetforwhat’savailable.Whatwearedoingnowis

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promotingitandrequestingthatpeopleinputwetlandrestorationprojects,riparianrestorationprojectsandtheirsedimentneetandfromthefloodprotectionanddredgingcommunitythesedimentthattheyhaveavailable.

Mr.Baudrimountcontinued:Oneadditionalpieceofthisprojectwastheeconomicanalysis.Theideawastotrytounderstandwhatisthebalancebetweenthecostsandthebenefitswhenwetrytoimplementmulti-benefitprojectinafloodcontrolchannel.Inordertodothatweenteredintoacontractwithaneconomicconsultantthathelpedusdesignamodeltomakethisassessment.Weworkedontwoeconomicanalysiscasestudies;NovatoCreekandLowerWalnutCreek.Outofthosetwocaseswebuiltatoolthatisavailablenowonthetoolboxforanyfloodcontrolplannerwhowantstodothisexercisetounderstandthecostsandthebenefitsofdoingsuchprojects.

Thetooliscomposedofaspreadsheetmodelwhereyoucanenterinformationfromyourspecificsitesstartingwiththeprojectalternativesassumption.InthiscaseitwastheFloodControl2.0strategies.Thenyouaddthebenefits,whicharethefloodrisksavoided,therecreationalbenefits,environmentalbenefitsandontheothersideyouinputthecostsofthesealternativeswhicharerecreationandmaintenanceaswellascapitalcostsforconstruction.Youcompareallofthatwiththebusinessasusual,orasweliketocallitFloodControl1.0,andoutofthatwehavearatiowhichiseitherpositiveornegative,whenthedifferencebetweenthecostsarehigherthanthebenefitsortheotherwayaround.Ofcoursewealsodesignaguidebooktohelpanyonewhowantstousethistool.Andintheguidebookeverythingisexplainedintermsofmethodology,whatkindofdataisneeded,howtousethespreadsheetmodelandhowtoreallybuildastrongbenefit-costanalysis.

Lastly,theverylastcomponentofthisprojectistheoutreachcomponent.Iinviteyoutogotothetoolboxwebsiteandyoucanexploretheoutreachcomponents.Thereareeightpodcaststhatareexplainingwhattheprojectisandhighlightingsomecomponentsofthisproject.WiththatIinviteyoutogotofloodcontrol.sfei.org.Thisistheonesingleplacewhereyoucanfindalltheinformationaboutthisproject.Thankyousomuch.

CommissionerNelsoncommented:Thistransitionfromaless-naturaltoamore-naturalapproachtofloodmanagementisalsohappeningrightnowintheCentralValleywheretheCentralValleyFloodBoardiswritinganewfloodplan;doingexactlythesamething–movingfromtraditionalplanningtoamuchmoremulti-benefitfocus.Andyouranthroughsomeofthosebenefits,floodprotection,recreation,environmental;thereareabunchofothersaswell.Iwantedtomentionotheraspectsofthosebenefits.Ifyouareafloodmanagementagencyandyouarebuildingatraditionalconcretetrapezoidalchannel,you’rekindofonyourown.Butifyouarebuildingoneofthesemulti-benefitprojectsit’saloteasiertogetpermitted.Youcanshowenvironmentalbenefitsratherthanimpactsandyouhavepartnersinterestedinrecreationandrestorationwhocanhelpyouimplementandfundthething.Inadditiontothe

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on-the-groundbenefits,recreation,floodmanagementandsoforth;thereareotherproceduralbenefitsthatarereallyimportantingettingthesereallydifficultpermitprocessesthroughthesystemtoactuallybeingimplementedontheground.

AnanalysisthatIhaven’tseenfortheBayArea,buttheCentralValleyFloodPlanistryingtostartdoingwhatwearedoingwithsealevelrise,butlookingatclimatechangeimpactsaswellintheCentralValley.TheyarelookingathowpeakfloodflowsareexpectedtoincreaseonCentralValleyriversbecauseofclimatechange.That’sprimarilythechangefromasnow-drivensystemtoamorerain-drivensystem.AndontheSanJoaquinsideofthesystemtheyareprojectingincreasesoffloodflowsofalmost70percentcomparedtowherewearenow.Wehavealotoffloodingwithcurrentfloodflows.Thegoodnewsforus;thatchangeislargelydrivenbythechangefromsnowtoamorerain-drivensystem.Oneoftheotherimpactsofclimatechangeismoreintenserainfallevents.Wearegoingtoseesomechangesinourlocalstreamhydrologyaswell.Ihaven’tseenthatsothat’smyquestion;whetheryoufolkshavelookedatthehydrologyofthesestreamsandhowtheyarelikelytochangebecauseofthoseclimateimpacts.Mr.Dusterhoffreplied:Theansweristhatwearegoingtothenextphase.FloodControl2.0wasfundedprimarilybytheWaterQualityImprovementFundfromtheEPA.WejustreceivedtheteamincludingSFEI,BCDC,SanFranciscoEstuaryPartnershipandotherpartnersjustreceivedanextwaterqualityimprovementfund.Thefundingjustcamethroughatthebeginningoftheyeartocontinuethisworkanddomoreregionalanalysesonwhatwethinkisgoingtobehappeningwithwatershedsedimentandaddressingthatexactquestionofwhatwethinkisgoingtobehappeningwithclimate.

MyunderstandingintermsoftheclimateprojectionsfortheBayAreaisthattheyarealittlebitlesscertainthantheSierra.WeknowthatmeanannualprecipitationintheBayAreawillprobablybeaboutthesamebuthowthatcomesisgoingtochange.Itcouldstillbeabout30inchesonaverageperyearbutwecouldgetmanyyearswithnothingandthenafewyearswithalot.

CommissionerGorinspoke:Iwanttoechothosecommentsbecausethat’sexactlywhatSonomaCountyisseeing.Our30-yearfloodeventsarenowlikeeveryfivetosevenyears.Weweresignificantlyhithardthispastwinter.WearegoingthroughthereallypainfuldiscussionswithourneighborhoodsthattheWaterAgencydoesnothavetheauthoritytogointhereandmaintainandrestoreletalonehavingthefundingnecessarytonaturalizethatmayprovidesomeofthesolutionsthatwearegoingtoneedoverthenextdecadeortwo.Theyarenothappywhenwetellthemthatespeciallyasthecreekshaverampagedthroughtheiryardsremovingalltopsoilandinundatingroadsandthreateningtheveryviabilityofroads.WearedoingthesamethingnotdirectlyconnectedtoBaylevelrise.We’veidentifiedcleaningoutthewatershedsforlackofabetterofabettertermonapproachingthisinallways,shapesandforms.

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Iamgoingtobelookingatwhatyou’redoingandItooknotesandjustsentanemailtofolksoftheworkthatyouhavebeendoingonNovatoCreekbecausetheworkthatwearedoingonHighway37willdefinitelybeinformedbytheworkthatyouhavedoneandtheregulatoryanalysisthatyouhavedoneonNovatoCreek;acheapersolutionforHighway37isaraisedcausewayanditmaynotworkwiththewetlandsrestorationthatyouhavepotentiallyidentifiedasanadaptationstrategy.Thankyouforallthatyouaredoing.I’mgoingtocribyourinformationandreferalotofpeopletoyou.

Mr.Dusterhoffreplied:Pleasedo.IamaPetalumaresidentsoIamalsoveryconcernedaboutwhat’sgoingoninSonomaCountyaswell.TheotherthingthatisgoingoninSonomaCountyrelatedtoasimilarapproachtowhatwedidforNovatoistheworkthatSFEIisgoingtobedoingwithSonomaCountyWaterAgencyandtheLagunaFoundationintheLagunatodothisexactsameprocess;comeupwithavisionthatismulti-benefit,stakeholders,landowners,regulators–everybodyintheroomgettingtheseconceptstogether.Gettingaplanthenwillbetheblueprintforhowthatareawillbemanagedinamulti-benefitwayforthecomingdecades.

CommissionerMcGrathcommented:Thisissocool.(Laughter)Iwantedtosay,thankyouandIwantedtosingleouttwopeoplewhoaren’there,LuisaValielaandSamZieglerwhohadthevisiontofundthis.Sam,ofcourse,isoneofus.

Thisissocool.CommissionerShowalteragreed:Thisiscool.I’mhavingagreattimeworkingonitand,infact,IamretiringattheendofthisweekandoneofthethingsthatIkepttryingtopushwasthedateofthisworkshopsoitwasbeforemyretirementdatebuttheydecidedIcouldcomeanywayevenifIwasretired.OneofthethingsIwanttosayaboutthisthathasreallybeenimportantforusis;atwaterdistrictswesitaroundanddreamaboutoursystems.Whatifwecoulddothisorwhatifwecoulddothat?Andparticularlywithsomeofthestreamsthatgointothesaltpondsyoulookatthemandtheymaketheseveryunnaturalconfigurationsbecausewhentheybuiltthesaltfactoriestheydidn’treallycareaboutthestreamchannels,theyjustdikedthemoff.Wehavesomewith90degreeturns.Foryearswehavebeenlookingatthesetwocreeks,inparticular,SanTomasandCalabasasandthinking,wow,whycan’twejustpunchitthroughintothesaltponds?Andthereasonwehaven’thasbeenlargelythatit’sjustapermittingnightmare.Thisprocessisreallywonderfulforusbecauseitbringsallthemajorpermittingagenciestogetherinaroomalongwithsomescientistswhoaresubject-matterexpertsandtheyarepresentedwithatremendousamountofhomeworkgoesintogettingtheseworkshopstogether.Sotheyarepresentedwithallthisinformationatoncethattheycanshareandabsorbandaskquestionsaboutatthesametime.

Theresultisincrediblyefficient.I’vebeenworkingwithayoungengineerfromCapitalandhekeepssaying,youknowthisisthefirsttimetheregulatorssmilewhentheytalktome.(Laughter)Iwanttothankyoufortheefficiencythatthisproducesandforhelpingustodreamalittlebit.

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Mr.Dusterhoffreplied:Thistime,forthefirsttimeatourseminar,wearegoingtohaveaninternationalcontingentfortheworkshops.Thatisgoingtobeexciting.CommissionerShowalteradded:WearehavingmodelersfromtheNetherlandswhoaredoingthissedimentmodelingfortheprogram.

ChairWassermancontinued:ThankyouverymuchforthepresentationandtheworkandwiththatIwouldacceptamotiontoadjourn.

12.Adjournment.UponmotionbyCommissionerGorin,secondedbyCommissionerNelson,theCommissionmeetingwasadjournedat3:49p.m.

Respectfullysubmitted,LAWRENCEJGOLDZBANDExecutiveDirector

Approved,withnocorrections,attheSanFranciscoBayConservationandDevelopmentCommissionMeetingofMay18,2017R.ZACHARYWASSERMAN,Chair

to: all commissioners and alternates · to: all commissioners and alternates ... with this so that...

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