tmt predictions 20122013.highereducationsummit.ca/pdfs/presentations for...online education and...

November, 2013

TMT Predictions 2013 Insights. In advance.

1 Join the #Deloittepredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.

60 countries, 60+ cities, 10,000 people at launch events in first 3 months of 2013

Predictions was first published in 2001


>330 end notes + >500 references + 1000s x conversations + 10,000s survey responses = P 13.


Mythbusters

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=3312223&id=573317465


Early remote control


TV is going to the dogs


Voice and gesture remote control


Voice and gesture remote control

02 00 02

False negatives/

10,000 uses

False positives/

10,000 uses

Error rate/

10,000 uses

(dead battery, dog in

front of TV sensor)

Remote Control

1,200 800 2,000

False negatives/

10,000 uses

False positives/

10,000 uses

Error rate/

10,000 uses

Gesture

1,000 500 1,500

False Negatives/

10,000 uses

False positives/

500 uses

Error rate/

10,000 uses

Voice


What’s Deloitte’s opinion on touch screen laptops?


We don’t have opinions, we have data points…

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Anticipated Sales Actual Sales

Mil

lio

ns

First Eight Months of 2013 Touchscreen Laptops (all brands)


http://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=GxYN1rMrzctpIM&tbnid=MmEf67_Ba4j4wM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://sevenels.net/typewriters/underwoods.htm&ei=xpkmUcysGs7s2AWCqICgCQ&bvm=bv.42661473,d.b2I&psig=AFQjCNGbY5NJMT-2J7IQIxtKM8UZAFY_Ag&ust=1361570628090204


What’s Deloitte opinion on wearable computers?


You know they are transparent, low-resolution, work only with a smartphone, cost $1500, and probably violate privacy laws, right?

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=D_lou8g1H5Gx5M&tbnid=ZqftqNfDpqj7ZM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.tapscape.com/second-preview-of-google-glass/&ei=PZFHUby0B8qD2QXfkYCoCQ&bvm=bv.43828540,d.b2I&psig=AFQjCNGFPNn2p-MwYO59yVH8swdm45TuSA&ust=1363731113331393


84 sq Inches

(540 cm^2)

1 x 3.5” screens

4.8” Smartphone 7” Tablet 9.7” Tablet

5.2 sq Inches

(34 cm^2)

3.5” Smartphone

Screen area (16:9 aspect ratio) As measured in 3.5” screens

1.9 x 3.5” screens

9.8 sq Inches

(63 cm^2)


21 sq Inches

(135 cm^2)


40 sq Inches

(259 cm^2)


14” Laptop 23” Monitor

226 sq Inches

(1458 cm^2)


42” LCD TV

754 sq Inches

(4862 cm^2)

145 x 3.5” screens

Source: Deloitte Canada calculations


www.emarketer.com

Devices used for online activities by smartphone owners in Canada, April 2012

% of respondents in each group

Computer* Smartphone Tablet

Research health issues and symptoms 89% 21% 16%

Shop for products and services 89% 26% 18%

Maintain personal banking and finances 89% 29% 13%

Source maps and directions 86% 59% 18%

Communicate with family and friends 86% 74% 20%

Connect to social networks 80% 52% 20%

Keep up to date on daily news 78% 43% 21%

Online education and learning 71% 11% 12%

Play games 66% 50% 21%

Watch movies and TV shows 54% 10% 14%

Stream live radio 53% 21% 8%

Stream music (e.g., Rdio, Grooveshark, Loudlee) 47% 19% 8%

Live streaming of major sporting and

entertainment events 35% 6% 7%

Note: *Laptop, desktop or netbook

Source: Rogers, “Innovation Report: 2012 Trend Watch* conducted by Vision Critical, May 9, 2012

140346

http://www.emarketer.com/


Which device is more important to you —

that is, which device could you least do without?

(Among respondents who own both a laptop and a tablet)


http://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=lT-SG_68KEHQ2M&tbnid=v0YTvgJuwdJuRM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://venturebeat.com/2013/04/11/samsung-galaxy-mega-stupid-big/&ei=zsE1UqDgFImK2wWPlIDgDw&bvm=bv.52164340,d.b2I&psig=AFQjCNGtkndMT9-G77zrG2lgtNb_1oFFVQ&ust=1379341102955692


http://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=gMV8Bv0GX3FftM&tbnid=k-IdhDUKOMSCqM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://blog.world-mysteries.com/mystic-places/the-most-expensive-photos-in-the-world/&ei=0MM1Ut-QBqnx2wXg5YHYBg&bvm=bv.52164340,d.b2I&psig=AFQjCNF0P6DYdLsjMyAnYGsM0hxdrJ8P4w&ust=1379341590666010


Light space suit, appropriate for +130C

temperatures

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=7DqM8UZ8t9WQYM&tbnid=LjybhKWC6UX4fM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.flickr.com/photos/oewf/4101457596/&ei=SsQ1UrfuFIjx2wX9ooCQBg&bvm=bv.52164340,d.b2I&psig=AFQjCNFUxEN9pUKVCXA4PSGmhuUxCLmTZA&ust=1379341736526150


Declining monthly voice minutes

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2007 2014

Highest quintile

Lowest quintile


http://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=XwJsQGyzLydx1M&tbnid=TxaXDJzDAPdFLM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.interaksyon.com/infotech/phablets-overtake-tablet-and-pc-shipments-in-asia-idc&ei=hUUuUq6gNdDs2AWDrIF4&bvm=bv.51773540,d.aWc&psig=AFQjCNGy2-cGdN7MiDXDFhyIeVjbtszKWw&ust=1378850557544603

Q1 2011 (daily minutes)


Change

TV1 598.0 643.7 7.6%

TV 2 335.9 330.8 -1.5%

TV 3 229.8 206.8 -10.0%

TV 4 146.7 118.4 -19.3%

TV 5 57.9 36.2 -37.5%


Q1 2013 (daily minutes) Change

TV1 598.0 643.7 7.6%

TV 2 335.9 330.8 -1.5%

TV 3 229.8 206.8 -10.0%

TV 4 146.7 118.4 -19.3%

TV 5 57.9 36.2 -37.5%

TV1/TV5 10.3x 17.8x



2013 Minutes

(billions daily )

As a % of total

TV1 598.0 643.7 30.4 48.2%

TV 2 335.9 330.8 15.6 24.7%

TV 3 229.8 206.8 9.8 15.5%

TV 4 146.7 118.4 5.6 8.9%

TV 5 57.9 36.2 1.7 2.7%

Total 63.1 100%


Demographic profile of TV viewers

Demographics

Proportion of TV viewing population (%) Total

population

(%) Heavy Medium Light Non-

viewers

Income Less than 10,000

10,000 – 19,999

20,000 – 29,999

30,000 – 49,999

50,000 – 69,999

70,000 or more

9

26

16

25

13

10

6

15

14

29

19

18

6

12

12

28

20

23

7

15

13

26

17

23

6

16

14

28

18

19

Discretionary

spending

Light spenders

Medium spenders

Heavy spenders

48

31

21

31

34

35

28

34

38

34

31

35

33

33

33

Socio-

Economic

quintile

FG

E

D

C

AB

34

25

18

14

9

19

20

21

21

19

14

18

20

22

26

15

17

20

21

27

20

20

20

20

20

*includes full-time and part-tme workers which totals 60% of the population


Demographic profile of TV viewers

Demographics

Proportion of TV viewing population (%) Total

population

(%) Heavy Medium Light Non-

viewers

Education

level

Primary

Some secondary

Completed Year 12

Some/Now at Uni

Have Diploma/

Degree

5

53

20

6

16

3

40

20

9

29

2

32

17

11

38

2

31

15

10

42

3

39

19

9

31

Employment

variables*

Other (inc.

semi/unskilled)

Skilled workers

White collar

Professional/Manager

14

5

14

7

15

8

22

16

15

8

23

22

14

8

21

21

15

8

20

17

*includes full-time and part-tme workers which totals 60% of the population


A&E in 2002


A&E in 2013

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=lVoJgWrHAYT2mM&tbnid=Z3kYBSSJKopwfM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.golfwrx.com/90563/duck-dynasty-plays-in-pro-am-with-bubba-watson/&ei=aQIxUq3RCKb62gXltIHQAg&bvm=bv.52109249,d.b2I&psig=AFQjCNEYfnXbEpdaRheQ7vsGSI0c09d1Mg&ust=1379029967499471


Facebook and ‘younger teens’

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=9WKOA_rHlREVtM&tbnid=dNNNWUtAvs7NBM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.techspot.com/news/51337-new-myspace-goes-live-focuses-on-social-music.html&ei=coByUrjgL-mw2wWX94CoBQ&bvm=bv.55819444,d.b2I&psig=AFQjCNFBx-myiyKofllnyANh1Yog2SC83A&ust=1383322087143069


Facebook and ‘younger teens’

Deep dive on US student loans, cost of education, and income

MOOCs

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=dfU9yBiN3p6PLM&tbnid=I64dTc-G3p4u-M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.nature.com/news/online-learning-campus-2-0-1.12590&ei=Nm44UqXFHsfW2QXWjIDYBQ&bvm=bv.52164340,d.b2I&psig=AFQjCNFc6xC2au-WqNZxiVspL7xEr7vliQ&ust=1379516303285923


Only completions count!

Global Tertiary Courses Completed 2014

Traditional Education

MOOCs

100 million FTEs

@ ten courses

per year

“The perfect storm”: John Seely Brown

Technology and networks have changed

Pedagogy has changed

Skills half life and retraining have changed

Government ability to pay has changed

Student ability to pay has changed

Push vs. pull has changed (learn what you want, when you want)

Data and analytics has changed…to real time and granular

Cross-subsidization will need to change!


We have had the decade of the device…

47


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Tablets PCs TVs Smartphones GameConsoles

Billi

on

s o

f U

S D

oll

ars

Cumulative Global Device Sales

2004-2008

2009-2013

48 Economics & Markets Team


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tmt predictions 20122013.highereducationsummit.ca/pdfs/presentations for...online education and...

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