Through the glass darkly- uncertainty, climate chaos & Water policy reform challenges

Presenter: Jason AlexandraMDBA November 2009

Overview1. Background2. Context and Challenges 3. A Brief History of water

resources policy4. Water reform in context5. Climate change6. Conclusions

Understanding the variability and ecological limits of Australia…

"Charles Darwin …. Visited Sydney in 1836. After an uncomfortable tramp over the Blue Mountains in a heat wave, he concluded that Australia could never become another America - its soil was too poor, its rains too unpredictable. Instead it must

depend on becoming "the centre of commerce for the southern hemisphere and perhaps on her

future manufactories.“ As quoted in McCalman, The Age, 10 August

2002.

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headlineDespite these warnings “Successive Governments sponsored closer settlement and intensive irrigation development, with dreams of taming the rivers, greening the desert, and making land productive, running deep in the national psyche (Lines 1994) notwithstanding, punishing droughts and misconceptions about the severity of the natural constraints to settlement and production (Taylor 1940).  Generations of school children have been taught of love for “a land of drought and flooding rain” (McKellar 1987). Reflecting Australia’s climate pulsing through its wetter and drier phases. Our natural ecosystems have evolved superb adaptations to the

inherent climatic variation (Cullen 1998).”

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headlineSuccessive Australian governments have attempted to “tame the rivers and made the deserts productive”.

The majority of the MDB is flat, semi arid and developed for agriculture and pastoralism.

The “wet” parts, like the main rivers, floodplains and wetlands are critical habitats – with their pulse of drought and flood.

Major legacy issues

Modified catchments, nutrient and

suspended sediment loads and habitat

Very high nutrient and suspended sediment loads

Largely unmodified in

all aspects

Catchment Condition

Australian water era 1890’s – 1980’s Development era – “drought,

royal commission, new dam” 1992 Industry Commission – TWE 1994 COAG reforms – environmental flows,

unbundling water and land “titles”; corporatisation and cost recovery

1995 – MDB “Cap” on development National Water Initiative 2004 – reaffirms reform

agenda and markets’ role in reallocating water

IrrigationIrrigation• The biggest user of diverted fresh water The biggest user of diverted fresh water

• Produces more than half the profit in Australian Produces more than half the profit in Australian Agriculture & Horticulture, from 0.5% of land Agriculture & Horticulture, from 0.5% of land (NLWRA 2002)(NLWRA 2002)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Area

(x10

00 h

a) NSWVicQuSAWATas

Major periods of water diversions (note Murray average inflows approx 9,000,000 ml)

1890 1912 1934 1956 1978 2000

6,000,000

12,000,000

18,000,000

Capa

city

( ML)

Government funded development of dams

MurrayDarling

Global demand for food

0

100

200

300

400

0

20

40

60

80

100CornWheatRiceOil (right scale)

Surge in cereal and oil pricesCommodity prices (US$/ton)Commodity prices (US$/ton)

Source: Data from FAO 2007 and IMF 2007Source: Data from FAO 2007 and IMF 2007.

The MDBC has an Engineering Heritage

An engineered system

Less than 10% of it’s catchment yields > 90% flowLarge in scale but less flow in an average year than the Amazon in a day

Highly variable – heavily exploited water resources Highly developed but thus high vulnerabilityFuture health influenced by climate change, landuse, bush fires, forestry and water resources policy reform

The Murray – an “exotic river”

Water - a complex business

Maximum reduction in yield:

Vic 2003 fires: Reductions of up to 1237 GL/y in 20 years

The wetlands – degrading (Kingsford)

Chowillafloodplain Barmah-Millewa

Forest

Macquarie Marshes

Gwydir wetlands

Lowbidgee floodplain

Narran Lakes

Coorong

Kulkyne Lakes

• ~28,000• 6.3 million ha• 98% floodplains• ~3% protected

Macquarie Marshes -Changes

Major dams1,200

1945 2005

Rain

fall

inde

xNo. of waterbirds

No. of nests

Number of species

1983 2007

20

1995 20081986

80,000

No breeding

1,500,000

Flow

(ML)

to

Mar

shes

Average

1983 1991 1999 2007

50020

20,000

4,990 56722,465

Key River Murray Catchment Area

Is this Drought Different?

An Irrigation Drought – several dry years

June 20082,220 GL

Trade in water supports Greenfield developments and adjustment

New horticulture up to 14 kilometres from the riverEstimates of up 32000 hectares since trade startedNearly all outside “historic irrigation districts”

Modernising and ExtensionInvestigations and strategyInfo. Management and reportingAnalysis and forecastingSet and administer a new capMDBC operations

Northern Aust and Great Artesian BasinOn farm efficiencyMetering, monitoring, accountingImproving river operationDelivery system efficiencyPurchasing entitlements

0 2000 4000 6000

F3

Addressing over-allocatio

Modernising irrigation

Northern Aust and Great A

Reform MDBC

Water information

Modernising and ExtensionInvestigations and strateInfo. Management and repoAnalysis and forecastingSet and administer a new capMDBC operations

Northern Aust and Great AOn farm efficiencyMetering, monitoring, accImproving river operationDelivery system efficiencyPurchasing entitlements a

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Water information

Reform MDBC

Northern Aust and Great Artesian Basin

Modernising Irrigation

Addressing over-allocation

http://www.aha.net.au/

Water for the future: All figures in A$ million Costing over ten years TOTAL: approx A$12.9 billion (about US$9

billion)

Key Elements of the Basin Plan

Water Resource PlanningBEFORE

THE BASIN PLAN IS MADE

VIC SA QLD ACT

Water Sharing Plans

Bulk Entitlements Water Allocation Plans

Water Resource Plans

Water Sharing

Plan

generally 2014 2019 up to 2014 2014 TBA

10 years 15 years 5 years 10 years TBA

Industry and Individual water rights holders

Basin-wide

issues

Water resource

plan area

issues

Local issues

(some shared strategies)

NSW

Post Basin PlanAFTER

THE BASIN PLAN IS MADE

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT

NSW VIC SA QLD ACT

Water Resource Plans Water Resource Plans Water Resource Plans Water Resource Plans Water Resource Plans

2014-2024 2019-2029 2014-2024 2014-2024 TBA

10 years 10 years 10 years 10 years 10 years

Industry and Individual water rights holders

Water resource

plan area

issues

Local issues

BASIN PLAN

Basin-wide

issues

Information demands

New quality assured information required• To support the plan• Risk assignment• Determine how much water is available• How much has been reduced by climate

change

Water Act 2007

• Enable Commonwealth in conjunction with States to manage Basin’s water resources in the national interest

• Give effect to international agreements, optimise economic, social and environmental outcomes

• Ensure environmental sustainability and in this context, maximise net economic returns to the Australian community

• improve water security for all uses of Basin’s water resources

(after Water Act 2007)

Climate is Hotter and Drier

Global average temperature

Australian average temperature

Satellite estimate of soil moisture

Future Projections• Global emissions tracking

on the higher IPCC scenarios

• Warmer drier conditions in the future under all global emission scenario’s

• Majority of models project reduced runoff for SE Australia, including Murray system headwaters

Projected changes in run-off at 2030 under scenario A1B, showing the number of climate models (out of 15) yielding an increase or decease in run-off; from F. Chiew.

Actual Decreases in Runoff

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonth

Rai

nfal

l Cha

nge

(mm

/ m

onth

)

1961-1990

1996-2006

Anomaly

Monthly mean south eastern Australia rainfall, 1961-1990, 1996-2006 and anomaly

Drier Autumns

•

Rainfall & Streamflow(hypothetical catchment)

30 units streamflow

70 unitsevaporation,transpiration &soil moisturethreshold

70 unitsevaporation,transpiration &soil moisturethreshold

20 units streamflow

10% less rainfall

100

rain

fall

units

90 ra

infa

ll un

its

30% less streamflow

Lower rainfall = much lower Streamflow

CSIRO and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 2007)

Declining inflows for the Murray

Source: http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/DSE/wcmn202.nsf/fid/13B5D5D8F4A2D943CA25742C007CF6EA

Greater irrigation efficiency as surface water availability reduces?

Higher evaporation. More farm dams as surface water availability reduces?

Increased forest evapo-transpiration due to higher temps?

Higher frequency and intensity of bushfires due to higher temps and worse droughts?

Climatechange Increased demand

for groundwater as surface water availability reduces?

Other Impacts of Climate Change

?

??

?

?

Water market dynamics in a climate of change and uncertainty:

• Value up due to scarcity – needed to protect high capital permanent plantings

• Impacts of government buybacks – $3 billion

• Higher prices for outputs due to global food scarcity

• Greenfields developments competing for available water

Water market dynamics

Australia is now responding to a multifaceted “water crisis” - symptoms include record low inflows in the Murray-Darling Basin, water restrictions in cities severe stress on many rural communities and aquatic ecosystems – eg Lower lakes.

A “water crisis” without precedent, despite“a long and proud history of water planning, the impending crisis was largely unforeseen and its origins are still poorly understood” (Schofield et al 2008).

Causes of the “crisis” - climate and land use change, Australia’s inherent climate variability, with long droughts high rates of vulnerability – development based on high rates of water use.

Concerns about the reliability of Southern Australia’s water resources Science more emphatic about the impacts of climate change, particularly the drying and intensification of droughts in the mid-latitudes. Fears that the speed and scale at which climate change impacts are intensifying.

Pressure for better information on water, but;• Impacts of climate change? Or chaos• Expression of natural variability?

Need to operate under uncertainty and extremes• Intense political and community interest• Drought responses – rural and urban• Trade and irrigation structural adjustment • Can we rebalance extractions and

environmental water ?

Conclusions

Conclusions

Extremely low water availability in the southern MDBImpacts of the drought/climate change areunprecedentedLong term reductions in rainfall and runoff likelyPolicy and climate induced water scarcityIntense competition for waterAdaptation and innovation is required and inevitableWater policy, rural industries and irrigated agriculture

will evolveRange of policies required to support adjustment and

adaptation

For more information: http://www.mdbc.gov.au