Thoughts for CODC regarding climate change Greg Bodeker Presented to the Central Otago District Council 11 November 2015 Overview A little bit about me (but not too much) and Bodeker Scientific. Some science. Coming changes in climate for Central Otago. More important things that need to be thought about. Outcomes from a Community Climate Change forum held in Alexandra on Saturday evening. Questions and Answers (40 minutes). Greg Bodeker Director of Bodeker Scientific (more on the next page). PhD in physics. Authored or co-authored 115 papers in the international peer reviewed literature. Lead author/author on a number of WMO, UNEP and IPCC reports. Named New Zealand contributor to the award of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize to the IPCC (shared with Al Gore). Adjunct Professor with the New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute at Victoria University of Wellington. Recipient of the Edward Kidson Medal, The Meteorological Society of New Zealand, Recipient of Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden Fund support. Co-Chair of GRUAN (GCOS Reference Upper Air Network). Associate editor for Journal of Climate. See Bodeker Scientific Scientists Greg Bodeker Karin Kreher Laura Revell Stefanie Kremser Jono Conway IT support Jared Lewis Ben Lewis Admin Nicky Brookes Emily Boud Interns Troy Smith Alex Schwertheim Tom Pedofsky PhD students Helena Sdergren Jordis Tradowsky Chris Cameron Climate Futures for New Zealand Climate change where we are The results Significantly more days with daily maximum temperatures going above 25C and way more days with daily maximum temperatures going above 30C. Daily minimum temperatures for Alexandra Fewer frosts. What about rainfall? No clearly discernible change in rainfall in Alexandra, but we should also consider rainfall changes in the Clutha catchment, changes in the seasonality of rainfall, and snowpack as a reservoir for summer-time irrigation. What about the rest of New Zealand? Number of days with T max >25C in 2015 Number of days with T max >25C in 2100 under RCP8.5 GCM Global Climate Model On each grid point: Temp, moisture, wind, pressure Sub grid-scale processes are parameterised: clouds, vegetation, surface heat exchange, Discretizes the equations for fluid motion and integrates these forward in time. Contains parameterizations for processes on smaller scales. Used in IPCC 5 th assessment report. Climate Models or Witchcraft? But what should CODC do? Should CODC be spending a lot of time and energy doing its bit to mitigate climate change? No! Should CODC be spending a lot of time and energy planning adaptation to climate change? Maybe a little Should CODC be thinking of how to position Central Otago to capitalize on the opportunities posed by the second order effects of climate change (tourist climate guilt, food miles, changing marlets, changing consumer perceptions)? Yes! What ideas are there around this Things for CODC to think about Enhance Central Otago as an attractive destination for climate sensitive tourists sell a solution/dream. But define very clearly what you are selling. Fun fossil fuel free holidays (F 4 holidays). F 4 certification system for the tourist service industry. Incentives for solar PV, solar water heating etc. Create something unique and sell it. Promote Central Otago as a place for high earning, innovative people to live and work sell the lifestyle, create an innovation hub, develop critical mass. Investigate novel solutions to local problems that put Central Otago on the map. Raise awareness, not of the problems but of the opportunities. And you can and should do all of this even if you think climate change is hogwash (and even if youre right). A central water-sourced heat pump The Community Climate Change forum Happened on 7 November 6:00-9:30 pm at the Community Hall. Sponsored primarily by the Deep South National Science Challenge ($7000) as well as Wanaka Wastebusters ($500) and the Otago Polytech Cromwell Campus ($500). 108 attendees. Five discussion themes: Is climate change an issue and what can we do about it? What does climate change mean for Central Otago businesses? How can Central Otago people meet the challenge? What opportunities can climate change create? What hurdles prevent action and what information do we need? Report has been written and two videos will be produced one for the Deep South Challenge and one for us.