third-quarter 2020 results · 2020. 10. 28. · •chvac bookings up hsd; chvac revs down msd;...
TRANSCRIPT
Third-Quarter 2020 Results
October 28, 2020
2
Safe Harbor
This presentation includes “forward-looking statements” which are statements that are not historical facts, including statements that relate to our future performance, the COVID-19 global pandemic, capital deployment including the amount and timing of our dividends, our share repurchase program including the amount of shares to be repurchased and the timing of such repurchases and our capital allocation strategy including projected acquisitions; our projected free cash flow and usage of such cash; our available liquidity; performance of the markets in which we operate; restructuring activity; our projected financial performance and targets including assumptions regarding our effective tax rate.
These forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. Such factors include, but are not limited to, the impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic on our business, our suppliers and our customers, global economic conditions taking into account the global COVID-19 pandemic, disruption and volatility in the financial markets due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the outcome of any litigation, the outcome of the Chapter 11 proceedings for our deconsolidated subsidiaries Aldrich Pump LLC and Murray Boiler LLC, demand for our products and services, and tax law changes and interpretations. Additional factors that could cause such differences can be found in our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019, as well as our subsequent reports on Form 10-Q and other SEC filings. We assume no obligation to update theseforward-looking statements.
This presentation also includes non-GAAP financial information which should be considered supplemental to, not a substitute for,or superior to, the financial measure calculated in accordance with GAAP. The definitions of our non-GAAP financial information are included as an appendix in our presentation and reconciliations can be found in our earnings releases for the relevant periods located on our website at www.tranetechnologies.com. All data beyond the third quarter of 2020 are estimates.
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Executing a Consistent Strategy Delivering Profitable Growth Over the Long-Term
Operational Excellence
Dynamic Capital Allocation
Uplifting Culture
Sustainable growthabove GDP
Powerful cash flow and balanced capital allocation
Strong operating system and performance culture
Innovation at the nexus
of sustainability and
energy efficiency global
megatrends
Sustained Growth
1.
Lean methodology
delivering margin
improvement
and powerful cash flow
2.
Reinvestment, dividends,
share repurchase and
acquisitions
3.
Commitment to
integrity, ingenuity,
community and
engagement
4.
4
Strong Execution Despite Challenging Pandemic Environment; Remain Focused On Positioning Business To Thrive As Business Conditions Improve
* Includes certain Non-GAAP financial measures. See the company’s Q3 2020 earnings release for additional details and reconcilia tions.
• Strong performance despite ongoing global pandemic-related challenges
− Successful execution of business strategy delivering top quartile revenue and EPS growth and FCF
− Broad-based outgrowth against largely soft global end-markets
• 2020 revenue & leverage outlook further improved from prior downturn scenarios
− Raising 2020 outlook for revenues to down ~6% (Q4 down ~5%), improved from down 10% to 15% prior
− 2020 leverage outlook improved to better than GM%
− Improved outlook assumes current course and speed of economies coming back online
• Playing aggressive offense through downturn to emerge even stronger post-pandemic
− Maintaining high levels of business reinvestment to support continued outgrowth / margin expansion through downturn
− Expect business reinvestment to accelerate in Q4 to further extend pure-play competitive advantages (core, IAQ, cold storage, etc.)
− Strategically executing recession playbook through business operating system; adapting to evolving market conditions & opportunities
• On track to deliver fixed cost take-out and margin improvement programs
− Stranded / fixed cost take-out of $100M in 2020; $140M run-rate savings in 2021
− Continued margin improvement and growth opportunities will be the focus of virtual investor briefing event Dec. 14
• Exceptional FCF, financial position, liquidity and balance sheet optionality support balanced capital allocation strategy
• Purpose-driven sustainability strategy unchanged
− Long-term secular tailwinds towards sustainability remain powerful megatrends
− Trane Technologies leads in addressing these challenges w/ top-tier financial performance delivering differentiated shareholder returns
5
Q3 Organic Bookings Up 7%, Revenues Positive Despite Ongoing COVID-19 Impacts
*Organic bookings and organic revenues exclude acquisitions and currency
Q3 Organic* Y-O-Y Change
Bookings Revenue
Enterprise + 7% +50 bps
Americas + 8% + 2%
Commercial HVAC
Residential HVAC
Transport
EMEA + 6% - 6%
Commercial HVAC
Transport
Asia Pacific - 5% - 2%
Commercial HVAC
Transport
-
+
Americas
• CHVAC bookings down LSD; Revs flat supported by strong backlog (revs up ~1% ex-Latin America); Service revs up LSD despite COVID-19 pandemic continuing to limit building occupancy / svcs demand
• Res HVAC bookings up 30+%; Revs up high-teens on strong end market demand
• Transport bookings up LSD, revs down ~20+%, outpacing weak transport markets that were down more than 30%
EMEA
• CHVAC bookings up HSD; CHVAC revs down MSD; Despite COVID-19 pandemic-related building lockdowns, service revs declined at a slower rate than equipment but remain challenged w/ low bldg occupancy rates
• Transport bookings up LSD / revs down HSD, outpacing major transport market declines of more than 20%
Asia Pacific
• CHVAC bookings down HSD. Revs down LSD. Bookings and rev growth in China more than offset by decreases in rest of Asia driven by continued pandemic challenges
• Transport bookings up high-teens; revs up HSD
+-
+-
-
+
-++
+
-
flat
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Net Revenue
17.9%
18.7%
Q3 '19 Q3 '20
$3,471 $3,496
Q3 '19 Q3 '20
15.9%16.7%
Q3 '19 Q3 '20
50 bps
Organic
*Includes certain Non-GAAP financial measures. See the company’s Q3 2020 earnings release for additional details and reconciliat ions.
**2019 restated to reflect Ingersoll Rand Industrial segment in discontinued operations.
E N T E R P R I S E
Strong Execution Drives Resilient Performance Despite Ongoing COVID-19 Impacts
Adj. Continuing EPS*
$1.62 $1.72
Q3 '19 Q3 '20
+6%
• Primarily driven by strong operating
performance, higher op income, op
margin expansion
• Operating leverage better than GM%
• Strong price / cost and productivity in every region more than offset COVID-19
related impacts
• Transport revs down 20+% in Americas, down HSD EMEA driving neg mgn mix
• Maintained high level of business reinvestment in safety, innovation, technology
• Unallocated corp costs flat to prior year reflecting successful stranded costs
mitigation
• Positive rev performance despite
ongoing COVID-19 impacts; Res
HVAC revs particularly strong
• CHVAC Americas, EMEA and Asia
Pacific svcs outperformed equip
• Transport mkts remain challenged
Adj. EBITDA %*
+80bps
Adj. Operating Margin*
+80bps
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S E G M E N T R E S U L T S
Strong Productivity, Volume, Positive Price / Cost Delivers Operating Leverage Better Than GM%
$M
Revenue
Org. Growth
Adj. EBITDA%
vs PY
Adj OI%
vs PYHighlights
Am
ericas
$2,746
+2%
20.2%
+60 bps
18.2%
+30 bps
• Strong Res HVAC volume, productivity, price / cost, partially offset by negative Transport vol / mix (Transport revs down ~20+%) drive margin expansion while maintaining high levels of business reinvestment
EM
EA $445
-6%
19.7%
+170 bps
17.3%
+100 bps
• Strong execution / productivity more than offset COVID-19 pandemic-related volume declines to deliver margin expansion
Asia
Pacific
$305
-2%
19.2%
+400 bps
17.9%
+410 bps
• Strong execution / productivity more than offset COVID-19 pandemic-related volume declines to deliver margin expansion
* Includes certain Non-GAAP financial measures. See the company’s Q3 2020 earnings release for additional details and reconcilia tions.
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2020 Revenue and Leverage Outlooks Further Improved After Strong Third Quarter
* Includes certain Non-GAAP financial measures. See the company’s Q3 2020 earnings release for additional details and reconciliations.
Principles & Playbook
• Strong execution of recession playbook expected to deliver better than GM% deleverage in Q4 and 2020
• Remain true to purpose-driven strategy – culture, ethics, safety, sustainability, communities
• Operating from position of financial strength
• Aggressively playing offense through business reinvestment to strengthen Trane Technologies for post COVID-19 world
• Capex-lite business model (1% - 2% of revenues)
• 2020 FCF expected to be = / > 125% adjusted net earnings
2020 Revenues - Current View(based on current pace of economies reopening)
• Q1 and Q2 2020 scenarios unlikely w/out major additional COVID-19 disruption
− Q1 FY 2020 scenarios at outset of pandemic down ~15% to ~25%
− Q2 updated FY 2020 scenarios down ~10% to ~15%
• Down ~6% FY 2020 (down ~5% Q4) expected given current visibility
Add’l 2020 Modeling Assumptions
• Quarterly interest expense: ~$62m
• 2020 expected tax rate: ~19% to ~20%
• 2020 share count: ~243M
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M A R K E T U P D A T E
2H Outlook Significantly Improved From Q2 Expectations
* Includes certain Non-GAAP financial measures. See the company’s Q3 2020 earnings release for additional details and reconcilia tions.
• EMEA economic recovery is uncertain and varied by country, impacted by ongoing pandemic flare ups; visibility remains limited
• CHVAC services declining at a slower pace than equipment despite reduced building occupancy / access limitations due to pandemic-related lockdowns. Both equipment and services markets remain challenging
• Transport mkts heavily impacted by pandemic; 20+% mkt declines expected for Truck / Trailer in Q4 & 2020
EMEA
• CHVAC services resilient, growing LSD despite reduced building occupancy due to the COVID-19 pandemic; Pipeline / bookings growing for indoor air quality assessments and services; End market indicators (ABI, Dodge) remain soft, visibility remains limited by pandemic-related market uncertainty; Expect 4Q20 revs down 5%-10% primarily driven by tough comps (2019 rev growth of high teens); Business remains resilient with year end 2020 backlog expected to be flat to year end 2019
• Residential HVAC strong demand drove record bookings / revs in Q3; Strong backlog entering Q4 however limited visibility into Nov and Dec w/ weak consumer economic picture, high unemployment, low GDP
• Transport market outlook remains weak within 2020; markets improving from trough, however headwinds expected with ~20% market declines in Q4 and ~38% market declines for FY2020. Order rates disconnected from revenue rates given volatile 2018 and 2019
Americas
• China market growth driven by strength in Data Center, Electronics, Pharma and Health Care• Rest of Asia slower to recover driven by continued pandemic challenges
Asia Pacific
10
Fixed Cost Reduction Programs On Track to Deliver $100M Savings in 2020; $140M Run Rate savings in 2021
*Transformation and restructuring costs totaled ~$18M in Q3;
~$3M of restructuring costs supported other cost reduction
programs, not directly related to transformation. See slide 19.
• 100% of ~$100M target cost reduction expected in 2020
− Strong execution vs initial guide of ~$40M for 2020
• $140M cost reduction run rate expected in 2021
Stranded Cost Reductions On Track For 2020, 2021
• Expense to achieve stranded cost reductions unchanged at ~$100M to ~$150M
• ~$15M spent in Q3; ~$91M year to date 2020
Expense Associated with Eliminating
Stranded Costs
40
30
30
100
40
140
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Corporate(Initial Guidance)
Corporate(Additional)
Segment(Additional)
Total SavingsExpected in 2020
CarryoverSavings
AnnualizedSavings
(2021 Run Rate)
$100M Savings Target
Stranded Cost Savings ($M)
0
50
100
150
Q1 Q2 Q3 Total
~$15M*
Expense to Eliminate Stranded Costs ($M)
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Strong Free Cash Flow and Balance Sheet Supports Continued Balanced Capital Allocation Strategy
Maintain Healthy,
Efficient Balance Sheet
Invest for Growth
Return Capital to
Shareholders
• Delivered ~$1.1B FCF YTD; Expect to deliver FY2020 FCF of ≥ 125% of adjusted net earnings
• Strong balance sheet; well positioned to win in current environment and through recovery
• Solid BBB investment grade rating offers optionality as markets evolve
• Expect to consistently deploy 100% of excess cash over time
• Pay competitive dividend and grow dividend at or above rate of earnings growth over time; Paid ~$380M in dividends YTD
• Resuming balanced capital allocation strategy including M&A and share repurchases
• Strengthen the core business and extend product & market leadership
• Invest in high ROI technology and innovation
• Strategic, value-accretive acquisitions - pipeline remains active
2
1
3
* Includes certain Non-GAAP financial measures. See the company’s Q3 2020 earnings release for additional details and reconcilia tions.
Topics of Interest
Topics of Interest: Indoor Air Quality
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• Comprehensive, systemic, fully customizable approach balances IAQ and energy intensity
• Strong & growing pipeline for IAQ services & system improvements leveraging deep application expertise
• Innovation and investment focused to expand market opportunities over the long-term
• Launched Center for Healthy and Efficient Spaces, incorporating global internal and external experts to drive long-term strategy throughout organization, code and standard adoption
Indoor Air Quality Update
14
2020 Transport North America Market
Outlook
2020 Transport EMEA Market Outlook
-34%
Truck
-39%
APU*
-31%
Trailer
-27%
Trailer
-23%
Truck
• N.A. and EMEA markets remain challenged in Q4
− N.A. ACT truck / trailer / APU down ~20%
− EMEA truck / trailer down ~25%
• Expect to outperform markets in N.A. and EMEA in 2020
• Working across cold chain to support vaccine distribution
• Market outlooks project return to growth in 2021, up ~31% N.A., up ~11% EMEA for trailer, truck, APU
• ACT forecasts N.A. trailer up ~32% for 2021
Topics of Interest: Transport Market Outlook – Markets Remain Significantly Impacted by COVID-19 Pandemic Prior to Forecasted Growth in 2021
Source: ACT / IHS / Company Estimates
*Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) outlook represented by class 8 sleeper cab market
2021 Transport North America Market
OutlookTrailer / APU / Truck wtd avg
+31%
2021 Transport EMEA Market OutlookTrailer / Truck wtd avg
+11%
N.A. and EMEA market demand significantly impacted
by correction cycle / COVID-19 pandemic
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Topics of Interest: Investor Briefing December 14
• Date: Morning of December 14, 2020
• Format: Virtual (details to follow soon)
• Focus: Transformation of Trane Technologies
− Focus will be on self-help initiatives to support continued margin
improvement and growth over the next several years
− Given ongoing global pandemic related uncertainty, do not expect to
provide revenue or full P / L guidance at briefing
Investor Briefing
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Confident in Long-Term Outlook for Trane Technologies to Deliver Profitable Growth
• Strategy tied to attractive end markets supported by global mega trends
• Franchise brands with leadership market positions in all regions
• Sustained business investments delivering innovation and growth, operating excellence and improving margins
• Experienced management and high-performing team culture
• Operating model delivers powerful cash flow
• Capital allocation priorities deliver strong shareholder returns
Strategy
Brands
Innovation
Performance
Cash Flow
Capital Allocation
Appendix
Appendix
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Q3 Organic Bookings Up 7% Year-Over-Year; Organic Revenues Positive
Organic*
Bookings2018 2019 2020
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY Q1 Q2 Q3
Americas +10% +18% +17% +27% +18% -2% -4% +2% -7% -3% +11% -5% +8%
EMEA +16% +10% -1% -5% +5% -9% +0% -2% -1% -3% -2% -20% +6%
Asia Pacific +10% +18% +0% +8% +9% +0% -6% +3% -5% -2% -17% -2% -5%
Total +11% +17% +12% +20% +15% -3% -4% +2% -6% -3% +6% -7% +7%
2013Organic*
Revenue2018 2019 2020
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY Q1 Q2 Q3
Americas +7% +8% +11% +11% +9% +12% +7% +10% +9% +10% -2% -13% +2%
EMEA +12% +11% +9% +1% +8% +1% -3% +3% +1% +1% -3% -15% -6%
Asia Pacific +13% +12% +4% +8% +9% +2% +0% -4% -1% -1% -34% -5% -2%
Total +8% +9% +10% +9% +9% +10% +5% +8% +7% +7% -5% -13% +50bps
*Organic revenues and bookings exclude acquisitions and currency
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Appendix: Restructuring and Transformation Costs GAAP to Non-GAAP Adjustments
Restructuring and Transformation Costs
• Restructuring costs of ~$8M included in Table 2 of the Q3 2020 earnings release includes ~$5M of restructuring costs related to transformation activities as well as ~$3M of restructuring costs supporting other cost reduction programs, not directly related to transformation.
• Total transformation costs of ~$15M on slide 10 include both the ~$5M of restructuring transformation costs mentioned above and ~$10M of non-restructuring transformation costs also disclosed in Table 2 of the earnings release.
Costs Restructuring Transformation Slide 10 Total
Transformation-related (restructuring and other) $5M $10M $15M
Restructuring related to other cost reduction programs $3M $3M
Table 2 Total (Q3 2020 earnings release) $8M $10M $18M
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Q3 Non-GAAP Measures Definitions
Organic bookings is defined as reported orders in the current period adjusted for the impact of currency and acquisitions. Organic revenue is
defined as GAAP net revenues adjusted for the impact of currency and acquisitions
• Currency impacts on net revenues and bookings are measured by applying the prior year’s foreign currency exchange rates to the current
period’s net revenues and bookings reported in local currency. This measure allows for a direct comparison of operating results excluding the
year-over-year impact of foreign currency translation.
Adjusted operating income in 2020 is defined as GAAP operating income plus restructuring costs and transformation costs. Adjusted operating
income in 2019 is defined as GAAP operating income plus restructuring costs.
Adjusted operating margin is defined as the ratio of adjusted operating income divided by net revenues.
Adjusted earnings from continuing operations attributable to Trane Technologies plc (adjusted net earnings) in 2020 is defined as GAAP earnings
from continuing operations attributable to Trane Technologies plc plus restructuring costs and transformation costs, net of tax impacts. Adjusted net
earnings in 2019 is defined as GAAP earnings from continuing operations attributable to Trane Technologies plc plus restructuring costs, net of tax
impacts.
Adjusted continuing EPS in 2020 is defined as GAAP continuing EPS plus restructuring costs and transformation costs, net of tax impacts.
Adjusted continuing EPS in 2019 is defined as GAAP continuing EPS plus restructuring costs, net of tax impacts.
Adjusted EBITDA in 2020 is defined as adjusted operating income plus depreciation and amortization expense plus or minus other income /
(expense), net. Adjusted EBITDA in 2019 is defined as adjusted operating income plus depreciation and amortization expense plus or minus other
income / (expense), net.
Adjusted EBITDA margin is defined as the ratio of adjusted EBITDA divided by net revenues.
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Q3 Non-GAAP Measures Definitions
Free cash flow in 2020 is defined as net cash provided by (used in) continuing operating activities, less capital expenditures, plus cash payments
for restructuring costs and transformation costs. Free cash flow in 2019 is defined as net cash provided by (used in) continuing operating activities,
less capital expenditures plus cash payments for restructuring.
Working capital measures a firm’s operating liquidity position and its overall effectiveness in managing the enterprise’s current accounts.
• Working capital is calculated by adding net accounts and notes receivables and inventories and subtracting total current liabilities that exc lude
short-term debt, dividend payables and income tax payables.
• Working capital as a percent of revenue is calculated by dividing the working capital balance (e.g. as of September 30) by the annualized
revenue for the period (e.g. reported revenues for the three months ended September 30 multiplied by 4 to annualize for a full year).
Adjusted effective tax rate for 2020 is defined as the ratio of income tax expense less the net tax effect of adjustments for restructuring costs and
transformation costs divided by earnings from continuing operations before income taxes plus restructuring costs and transformation costs.
Adjusted effective tax rate for 2019 is defined as the ratio of income tax provision plus the tax effect of restructuring costs divided by earnings from
continuing operations before income taxes plus restructuring costs. This measure allows for a direct comparison of the effective tax rate between
periods.
Operating leverage is defined as the ratio of the change in adjusted operating income for the current period (e.g. Q3 2020) less the prior period
(e.g. Q3 2019), divided by the change in net revenues for the current period less the prior period.