thinkla automotive breakfast 2014 - steve sturm presentation
TRANSCRIPT
INDUSTRY LANDSCAPE
STEVE STURM
MARKET SALES REVIEW Q1 2014
15.3 15.7
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Q1 2013 Q1 2014
SAAR Performance Million, Q1 2013 vs. 2014
+2.6%
2.2%
3.8%
1.9% 1.7%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Domestic Japanese Korean European
SAAR Performance % Change, Q1 2013 vs. 2014
MARKET SALES REVIEW March 2014
15.3 16.1
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Mar-13 Mar-14
SAAR Performance Million, March 2013 vs. 2014
+5.2% 10.1% 9.5%
7.7%
10.8%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Domestic Japanese Korean European
SAAR Performance % Change, March 2013 vs. 2014
BRAND PERFORMANCE
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46% 38%
33% 23%
16% 16%
13% 13% 13% 13% 13%
10% 7% 7%
5% 4%
1% 1%
-2% -2%
-3% -4%
-6% -6%
-8% -10%
JeepLincolnJaguarSubaru
JeepLexusInfinitiBuick
NissanBMWBuickAcura
MercedesLand Rover
DodgeAudi
MazdaGMC
ChevroletToyota
FordHondaVolvo
CadillacChrysler
VW
Sales, % Change Q1 2013 vs. 2014
On a Roll
Middle of the Road
Struggling
Subaru
Lexus Infiniti
Nissan
Acura
Mazda
Toyota
Honda
INDUSTRY FORECAST 2nd Quarter and 2014
Vehicle Prices
$29,300 +$700 from 2013
Vehicle Incentives
$2,773 +7.9% vs. February
Vehicle Production
4M vehicles built in NA in Q1 +3% from 2013
63 days supply in dealer
stock +3 days over normal
Average Age of U.S. Car
and Truck in Operation
11.4 years 9.6 years in 2002
2014 Market Forecast
16.1M – today 16.2 – beginning of 2014
2014 North American
Production
16.5M +3% from 2013
MARKET SHARE WAR
• Core Brands & Core Models:
– Compact and mid-size cars
– Full size pick-ups
– Cross-overs
– Luxury entry
THE NEXT QUARTER AND BEYOND
Tier 1
• Ongoing Sales Events – May, June, Aug, Sept, Dec
Tier 2
• Heightened focus
Tier 3
• Dealers will increase spending with strong market and continued strong factory incentives
• Fuel prices – Any major upward
price movement will shift focus
from truck to car (hybrids)
• Interest rates – Any major
upward movement could
weaken sales if Auto companies
don’t maintain incentive levels
Increased targeted marketing spend:
• Tier 1: More focus on digital vs. TV/Print
• Tier 2: Expanded digital presence
NEW PRODUCTS WILL RULE FACTORS TO WATCH
THE NEXT QUARTER AND BEYOND
16.1M SALES FORECAST IN 2014
Source: IHS, October 2013
41 NEW PRODUCT LAUNCHES SCHEDULED
IN 2014
Source: IHS, April 2013
9
2014 NEW PRODUCTS – 30 1st Half 2nd Half
• TLX redesign
• Fit redesign, Fit crossover debut
• Genesis re-engineer • Sonata re-engineer
• Q70 Hybrid debut • Q60 coupe debut, Q70 freshen
• Sedona redesign, Soul EV (or early 2015)
• RC 350 debut, NX 200t debut
• CX-5 re-engineer • Mazda2 redesign, Mazda6 re-engineer (or early 2015)
• Outlander Sport re-engineer, Outlander plug-in hybrid debut
• Versa, Maxima, Murano, Frontier, Xterra, Altima freshen
• WRX/STI redesign • Impreza freshen, Outback, Legacy redesign
• Highlander redesign • Camry freshen , Tacoma redesign
Source: Automotive News
TWO KEY PRODUCT TRENDS
By 2020, 90% of cars will be connected
to the internet (up from 10% today)
One of the fastest growing segments,
posting a CYTD gain of 25% vs. last year
HIGH TECH FEATURES ALTERNATIVE FUELS
Source: Automotive News, November 2013; The Connected Car Industry 2013 report (Telefonica)
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These fullsize pickup and SUV
buyers generate the largest profit
of any vehicle type
Hit hard by the recession, this
segment is recovering and
expected to account for 13% of
sales in 2014
Capturing this demo is key to
success for auto brands
because of its sheer size (80+
Million)
ALPHA MALES LUXURY BUYERS MILLENIALS
THREE KEY TARGET AUDIENCES
12
CONSUMERS GAIN CONTROL
Brand loyalty varies by
age, but is generally
declining. Loyalty is
lowest among buyers < 30
years old.
LESS BRAND LOYALTY
The internet, now the #1 most
influential source for
researching new car
purchases, gives consumers
faster and better access to
information
GREATER TRANSPARENCY Product proliferation
means more choice,
higher quality, and better
value for consumers
MORE CHOICE
Source: ORC International, March 2012; AOL Research
13
AD SPENDING SHIFTS & INCREASES
$14.8 Billion in 2012
• Tier 1 = $8.8 Billion
• Tier 2/3 = $6.0 Billion
Fastest growth rate of all industries
Will increase to nearly $15.5 Billion in 2014
Across all tiers, the shift to digital continues
at the expense of more traditional mediums
with mobile and video leading the way
AUTOS RANKS #2 IN
AD SPENDING DIGITAL CAPTURES MORE
AD SPENDING DOLLARS
Source: The US Automotive Industry, eMarketer (June 2013)
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Q & A 15