thermax 4q fy 2013

7/30/2019 Thermax 4Q FY 2013

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Quarterly highlights (Standalone)

(` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 % chg (yoy) 3QFY13 % chg (qoq)

Revenue 1,468 1,687 (13.0) 1,047 40.3

EBITDA 167 185 (9.7) 112 49.7

EBITDA margin (%) 11.4 11.0 41bp 10.7 72bp

PAT 115 130 (11.2) 76 51.4

Source: Company, Angel Research

For 4QFY2013, Thermax’s top-line performance was below our estimates with

revenue coming in at ` 1,468cr, down 13.0% yoy (due to lower order book). The

Energy segment as well as Environment segment witnessed a sharp decline inrevenues (13.7% yoy decline to ` 1,139cr for energy segment and 16.9% yoy

decline in environment segment to ` 350cr). However softening of commodity

prices and cost control measures aided the company to post 41bp yoy expansion

in margins to 11.4%. On the bottom-line front, net profit declined by 11.2% yoy

to ` 115cr.

Declining order book: Although order inflow for the quarter grew by robust

~49% yoy to ` 1,366cr on a consolidated basis (aided by a lower base), order

visibility continues to remain key concern after 6.0% sequential de-growth in order

book to ` 4,878cr (1.0x its trailing 4 quarters revenue). The management

commentary indicated that order enquiries in power, cement and steel sector

continue to be muted.

Thermax- BW JV to weigh on the consolidated profits: The Company’s super-

critical boiler plant is nearly completed. However, securing orders is expected to

be difficult as the slowdown in investments has led to lower orders and higher

competitive intensity. Hence, the company is expected to incur losses ( ` 100cr plus)

from fixed cost and interest.

Outlook and valuation: Thermax remains one of the most expensive stocks in our

coverage universe trading at 18.0x FY2015 EPS estimates. Amid a weakening

order inflow and working capital outlook, we expect Thermax’s return ratios to

continue to deteriorate. We also expect Thermax- BW JV to weigh on the

consolidated profits going forward as its utilization remains muted. Hence, wemaintain our Neutral rating on the stock.

Key financials (Consolidated) Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E

Net Sales 6,091 5,492 5,780 6,430

% chg 14.1 (9.8) 5.2 11.2

Net Profit 404 321 355 393

% chg 5.7 (20.4) 10.6 10.7

EBITDA (%) 9.7 9.2 9.5 9.6

EPS (`) 33.9 27.0 29.8 33.0

P/E (x) 17.5 22.0 19.9 18.0

P/BV (x) 4.3 3.8 3.4 2.9

RoE (%) 27.4 18.4 17.9 17.4

RoCE (%) 30.8 21.2 20.4 20.3

EV/Sales (x) 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0

EV/EBITDA (x) 10.5 12.6 11.4 10.0


NEUTRALCMP ` 594

Target Price -

Investment Period -

Stock Info

Sector

Net Debt ( ` cr) (676)

Bloomberg Code TMX@IN

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 62.0

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 10.5

FII / NRIs / OCBs 13.7

Indian Public / Others 13.8

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex 0.2 22.8 19.6

Thermax 3.2 36.6 (12.7)

Capital Goods

Market Cap ( ` cr) 7,076

Beta 0.9

52 Week High / Low 684/424

Avg. Daily Volume 13,047

Face Value ( ` ) 2BSE Sensex 19,674

Nifty 5,967

Reuters Code THMX.BO

Amit Patil

022-39357800 Ext: 6839

[email protected]

Thermax

Performance Highlights

4QFY2013 Result Update | Capital Goods

May 23, 2013

7/30/2019 Thermax 4Q FY 2013


Thermax | 4QFY2013 Result Update

May 23, 2013 2

Exhibit 1: Quarterly performance (Standalone)

(` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 % chg (yoy) 3QFY13 % chg (qoq) FY2013 FY2012 % chg (qoq)

Net Sales 1,449 1,661 (12.8) 1,029 40.8 4,632 5,244 (11.7)

Other operating income 19.5 25.6 17.6 - 59 60Total income 1,468 1,687 (13.0) 1,047 40.3 4,691 5,304 (11.6)

Stock adjustments 5.0 21.5 (0.2) (3) (4)

Raw Material 998 1,149 (13.2) 698 42.9 3,176 3,684

(% of total income) 68.3 69.4 66.7 67.7 69.4

Employee Cost 108 94 14.4 98 9.8 402 387 3.6

(% of total income) 0.7 0.6 0.9 10.0 8.6

Other Expenses 190 237 (19.5) 139 37.4 618 661 (6.4)

(% of total income) 1.3 1.4 1.3 19.5 17.9

Total Expenditure 1,301 1,502 (13.4) 935 39.1 4,194 4,729 (11.3)

EBITDA 167 185 (9.7) 112 49.7 497 575 (13.5)

(EBITDA %) 11.4 11.0 10.7 10.6 10.8

Interest 1 3 (86.1) 2 (76.3) 10 6 73.3

Depreciation 15 12 20.3 13 9.4 55 47 17.1

Other Income 24 27 (10.2) 12 97.3 83 78 5.7

PBT 177 197 (10.3) 109 62.4 515 601 (14.2)

(% of total income) 12.0 11.7 10.4 11.0 11.3

Total Tax 61 67 (8.8) 33 88.0 166 194 (14.6)

(% of PBT) 34.7 34.1 30.0 32.1 32.3

Reported PAT 115 130 (11.2) 76 51.4 350 407 (14.0)

(PAT %) 7.9 7.7 7.3 7.5 7.7 -

EPS (`) 9.7 10.9 (11.2) 6.4 51.4 29.4 34.1


Exhibit 2: Segmental performance

Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 % chg (yoy) 3QFY13 % chg (qoq) FY2013 FY2012 % chg (yoy)

Revenue

Energy 1,139 1,321 (13.7) 799 42.5 3,638 4,151 (12.4)

Environment 350 421 (16.9) 263 33.2 1,131 1,285 (12.0)

Total Revenue* 1,489 1,742 (14.5) 1,062 40.2 4,769 5,436 (12.3)

EBIT

Energy 119 135 (12.0) 86 38.2 380 443 (14.2)

Environment 41 59 (30.2) 26 56 119 160 (25.6)

Total EBIT 160 194 (17.5) 113 42 499 602 (17.2)

Revenues mix (%)

Energy 76.5 75.8 75.3 76.3 76.4

Environment 23.5 24.2 24.7 23.7 23.6

EBIT Margin (%)

Energy 10.5 10.2 10.8 10.4 10.7

Environment 11.8 14.0 10.1 10.5 12.4

Total 10.8 11.2 10.6 10.5 11.1

Source: Company, Angel Research *before intersegment revenue

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May 23, 2013 3

Revenue declines sharply by 13.0%

During 4QFY2013, Thermax’s top-line performance was below our estimates with

revenue coming in at ` 1,468cr, down 13.0% yoy (due to lower order book). The

Energy segment as well as Environment segment witnessed a sharp decline in

revenues (13.7% yoy decline to ` 1,139cr for energy segment and 16.9% yoy

decline in environment segment to ` 350cr). However softening of commodity

prices and cost control measures aided the company to post 41bp yoy expansion

in margins to 11.4%. On the bottom-line front, net profit declined by 11.2% yoy to

` 115cr.

Exhibit 3: Sales and Sales growth


Exhibit 4: EBITDAM expands yoy


Thermax- BW JV to weigh on the consolidated profits

The Company’s super-critical boiler plant is nearly completed. However, securing

orders is expected to be difficult as the slowdown in investments has led to lower

orders and higher competitive intensity. Hence, the company is expected to incur

losses ( ` 100cr plus) from fixed cost and interest.

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EBITDA (` cr, LHS) EBITDAM (%, RHS)

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May 23, 2013 4

Declining order book

Although order inflow for the quarter grew by robust ~49% yoy to ` 1,366cr on a

consolidated basis (aided by a lower base), order visibility continues to remain key

concern after 6.0% sequential de-growth in order book to ` 4,878cr (1.0x its

trailing 4 quarters revenue).

Exhibit 5: Order book detail (Consolidated)


For 4QFY2013, the ferrous sector has contributed 19% to order inflow followed by

power (18%), food processing sector (10%), cement sector (7%). Textile, mining

and distillery put together contributes 13% to the order inflow. The Energy segment

backlog stood at ` 3,789cr (78% of total) and the environment segment constituted

` 1,089cr (22% of total) of the order book.

The management commentary indicated that order enquiries in power, cement

and steel sector continue to be muted. However, the company is getting enquiries

for small orders ( ` 100- ` 500cr ticket size orders) from sectors such as food

processing, pharma, among others. The management expects order inflow to be

subdued from domestic markets. Hence, they are increasingly looking at South

East Asian and African markets to boost their order inflows.

Outlook

Subsidiaries’ profitability a concern

Over the years, Thermax has commanded a premium over its peers in the capital

goods space due to its excellent return ratios and strong balance sheet – owing to

excellent working capital and stable operating margins. However, due to the

current persistent slowdown, we expect both these levers to be under pressure,

leading to pressure on return ratios (from ~31.9% in FY2011 to ~18.5% in

FY2014E) along with stretched working capital requirements. Moreover, we expect

Thermax- BW JV to weigh on the consolidated profitability of the group going

forward as utilization remains muted.

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1,408 1,234 1,528 1,688 1,284742 918

1,412 1,320 1,454 1366

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Order inflows Order backlog

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May 23, 2013 5

Valuation

Thermax remains one of the most expensive stocks in our coverage universe

trading at 18.0x FY2015 EPS estimates. Amid a weakening order inflow and

working capital outlook, we expect Thermax’s return ratios to continue to

deteriorate. We also expect Thermax- BW JV to weigh in on consolidated profits

going forward as its utilization remains muted. Hence, we maintain Neutral rating

on the stock.

Exhibit 6: One-year forward P/E band


Exhibit 7: Peer comparison

Company Reco. CMP Tgt. price Upside P/BV(x) P/E(x) FY2013-15E RoE (%)

(`) (`) (%) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E EPS CAGR FY14E FY15E

ABB* Sell 629 461 (26.7) 5.0 4.8 54.6 37.1 61.6 9.3 13.1

BHEL Neutral 196 - - 2.1 1.8 9.4 10.3 (11.3) 23.7 18.8

BGR Energy Neutral 190 - - 1.0 0.9 7.6 6.8 11.2 25.2 22.6

Crompton Greaves Buy 97 117 20.2 1.6 1.4 14.1 10.4 111.6 11.7 14.5

Jyoti Structures Buy 28 33 16.7 0.3 0.3 3.2 2.7 15.2 9.9 10.5

KEC International Buy 45 63 40.3 0.9 0.8 7.4 5.3 83.5 20.2 23.0

Thermax Neutral 594 - - 3.4 2.9 19.9 18.0 10.7 17.9 17.4

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*December year ending.

Company description

Thermax provides a range of engineering solutions to the Energy and Environment

sectors, aided through a combination of technology and strategic alliances. The

company offers industrial boilers (small/medium-sized) and integrated solutions in

the areas of heating, cooling, power, waste management, air pollution controls

and chemicals. After attaining a leadership position in the mid-sized industrial

boilers market, the company (through a JV with Babcock and Wilcox) has forayed

into supercritical boilers to reap the opportunities outlined in the Indian power

sector.

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May 23, 2013 6

Profit & Loss statement (consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E

Net Sales 3,368 5,336 6,091 5,492 5,780 6,430

Other Opr. income - - - - - -Total Income 3,368 5,336 6,091 5,492 5,780 6,430

% chg (2.7) 58.5 14.1 (9.8) 5.2 11.2

Total Expenditure 2,973 4,763 5,499 4,988 5,231 5,812

Net Raw Materials 2,027 3,625 3,844 3,729 3,925 4,366

Other Mfg costs 616 678 1,098 743 763 842

Personnel 330 460 558 516 543 604

Other - - - - - -

EBITDA 395 574 592 504 549 617

% chg (6.4) 45.4 3.1 (14.9) 9.0 12.4

(% of Net Sales) 11.7 10.8 9.7 9.2 9.5 9.6

Depreciation& Amortisation 44 54 66 84 96 109

EBIT 351 520 526 419 453 508

% chg (9.4) 48.3 1.1 (20.2) 8.0 12.2

(% of Net Sales) 10.4 9.7 8.6 7.6 7.8 7.9

Interest & other Charges 2 4 12 13 13 14

Other Income 52 58 83 83 91 93

(% of PBT) 13.0 10.1 13.9 17.0 17.2 15.8

Others - - - - - -

Recurring PBT 400 574 596 489 530 587

% chg (5.4) 43.3 4.0 (18.0) 8.5 10.7

Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) 114.9 - - - - -

PBT (reported) 286 574 596 489 530 587

Tax 142 197 204 168 175 194

(% of PBT) 49.6 34.3 34.3 34.3 33.0 33.0

PAT (reported) 144 377 392 321 355 393

Add: Share of earnings of asso. - - - - - -

Less: Minority interest (MI) (0.4) (4.7) (11.4) - - -

Prior period items - - - - - -

PAT after MI (reported) 144 382 404 321 355 393

ADJ. PAT 259 382 404 321 355 393

% chg (9.9) 47.3 5.7 (20.4) 10.6 10.7(% of Net Sales) 7.7 7.2 6.6 5.8 6.1 6.1

Basic EPS (`) 21.8 32.0 33.9 27.0 29.8 33.0

Fully Diluted EPS (̀ ) 21.8 32.0 33.9 27.0 29.8 33.0

% chg (9.9) 47.3 5.7 (20.4) 10.6 10.7

Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with

previous year numbers

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May 23, 2013 7

Balance Sheet (consolidated)


SOURCES OF FUNDS

Equity Share Capital 24 24 24 24 24 24Preference Capital - - - - - -

Reserves& Surplus 1,054 1,291 1,606 1,829 2,087 2,383

Shareholders’ Funds 1,078 1,315 1,629 1,853 2,111 2,407

Minority Interest 9 52 112 112 112 112

Total Loans 8 148 88 87 92 99

Deferred Tax Liability 14 30 38 38 38 38

Total Liabilities 1,110 1,545 1,866 2,089 2,352 2,655

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Gross Block 742 1,068 1,193 1,438 1,572 1,848

Less: Acc. Depreciation 205 282 349 437 534 643

Net Block 537 785 844 1,001 1,039 1,205

Capital Work-in-Progress 11 35 247 15 21 45

Goodwill - - - - - -

Investments 370 241 415 704 754 821

Current Assets 2,431 2,997 3,167 2,760 3,160 3,306

Cash 670 688 698 386 466 450

Loans & Advances 328 360 180 357 318 386

Other 59 135 160 110 116 129

Current liabilities 2,239 2,514 2,807 2,390 2,621 2,723

Net Current Assets 191 482 360 370 539 584

Mis. Exp. not written off 0 0 - - - -

Total Assets 1,110 1,545 1,866 2,089 2,352 2,655



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May 23, 2013 8

Cash flow statement (consolidated)


Profit before tax 286 574 596 489 530 587

Depreciation 44 54 66 84 96 109(Inc)/Dec in WC 469 (273) 132 (322) (89) (61)

Less: Other income 52 58 83 83 91 93

Direct taxes paid 142 195 198 168 175 194

Cash Flow from Operations 604 101 514 1 271 349

(Inc.)/Dec.in Fixed Assets (74) (350) (336) (14) (140) (300)

(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments (227) 129 (174) (288) (50) (68)

Other income 52 58 83 83 91 93

Cash Flow from Investing (249) (163) (427) (219) (99) (275)

Issue of Equity - - (61) - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans 4 140 (60) (1) 5 7

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 69 125 98 98 98 98

Others 11 42 143 4 - -

Cash Flow from Financing (66) 15 (219) (98) (93) (91)

Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 300 (4) 10 (312) 80 (16)

Opening Cash balances 370 670 688 698 386 466

Closing Cash balances 670 688 698 386 466 450



7/30/2019 Thermax 4Q FY 2013



May 23, 2013 9

Key Ratios

Y/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E

Valuation Ratio (x)

P/E (on FDEPS) 27.3 18.5 17.5 22.0 19.9 18.0P/CEPS 23.3 16.2 15.1 17.5 15.7 14.1

P/BV 6.6 5.4 4.3 3.8 3.4 2.9

Dividend yield (%) 0.8 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

EV/Sales 1.8 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0

EV/EBITDA 15.3 11.0 10.5 12.6 11.4 10.0

EV/Total Assets 5.5 4.1 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.3

OB/Sales 1.8 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9

Per Share Data (`)

EPS (Basic) 21.8 32.0 33.9 27.0 29.8 33.0

EPS (fully diluted) 21.8 32.0 33.9 27.0 29.8 33.0

Cash EPS 25.5 36.6 39.4 34.0 37.9 42.2

DPS 5.0 9.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0

Book Value 90.5 110.4 136.7 155.5 177.1 202.0

DuPont Analysis

EBIT margin (%) 10.4 9.7 8.6 7.6 7.8 7.9

Tax retention ratio 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Asset turnover (x) 3.2 4.0 3.6 2.8 2.6 2.6

ROIC (Post-tax) (%) 16.7 25.7 20.3 13.9 13.7 13.6

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) (%) 17.0 3.5 6.8 10.1 10.1 0.0

Leverage (x) - - - - - -

Operating RoE (%) 16.7 25.7 20.3 13.9 13.7 13.6

Returns (%)

RoCE (Pre-tax) 33.0 39.2 30.8 21.2 20.4 20.3

Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) 118.1 123.0 156.8 82.3 42.8 33.8

RoE 25.0 31.9 27.4 18.4 17.9 17.4

Turnover ratios (x)

Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 4.8 5.9 5.4 4.2 3.8 3.8

Inventory / Sales (days) 29 21 22 24 24 24

Receivables (days) 74 64 65 70 72 72

Payables (days) 64 56 56 57 55 55

WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) (27) (23) (16) (12) 2 6Solvency ratios (x)

Net debt to equity (0.9) (0.6) (0.5) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4)

Net debt to EBITDA (2.6) (1.3) (1.4) (1.4) (1.5) (1.4)

Int. coverage (EBIT / Int.) 172.7 126.8 43.2 31.3 33.7 37.4



7/30/2019 Thermax 4Q FY 2013



May 23, 2013 10

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement Thermax

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below`

1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors

thermax 4q fy 2013

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