db corp 4q fy 2013
TRANSCRIPT
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7/30/2019 DB Corp 4Q FY 2013
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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
Quarterly Results (Consolidated)(` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 % yoy 3QFY13 % qoqRevenue 398 353 12.7 439 (9.3)EBITDA 94 73 29.4 119 (21.1)
OPM (%) 23.6 20.6 304bp 27.2 (355)bp
PAT 55 45 21.8 71 (21.9)Source: Company, Angel Research
For 4QFY2013, DB Corp (DBCL) reported a robust performance on the earnings
front, registering a 21.8% yoy growth to `55cr (in-line with our expectations),
aided by reduction in losses in emerging editions from `18.5cr in 4QFY2012 to
`5.8cr in 4QFY2013.
Key highlights for the quarter: For 4QFY2013, DBCL posted healthy 12.7% yoygrowth in its top-line to `398cr. Advertising revenue grew by 13.1% yoy to
`298cr, primarily driven by higher yields. Sectors such as lifestyle, FMCG,
real-estate and automobile, among others, have contributed to strong growth in
advertising. National advertising, which has been subdued in last few quarters,
has also grown by ~12% yoy (due to increase in government advertising). The
company also reported strong growth of 18.2% yoy in circulation revenue to
`73cr (driven by both cover price hike as well as increase in circulation). Among
the other segments, the companys radio business reported a robust advertising
revenue growth of 24.2% yoy to`19cr.
At the operating level, EBITDA grew by 29.3% yoy to `94cr on account of
reduction in losses of emerging editions as well as cost rationalization measures
such as improving ad edit ratio, and pagination efficiency, among others.
Consequently, the OPM expanded by 304bp yoy to 23.6% and net profit grew by
21.8% yoy to`55cr.
Outlook and valuation: At the current market price, DBCL is trading at 14.6xFY2015E consolidated EPS of`16.8. We maintain our Buy view on the stock with arevised target price of `285, based on 17x FY2015E EPS, benchmarking it to ourprint media sector valuations (which are at ~15% premium to our Sensex target
valuation multiple). The downside risks to our estimates include 1) sharp rise innewsprint prices in INR terms, and 2) higher-than-expected losses/increase in the
breakeven period of the new launches.
Key financials (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ENet sales 1,451 1,593 1,750 1,925% chg 15.2 9.8 9.9 10.0
Net profit 202 219 261 308% chg (21.9) 8.2 19.2 18.1
EBITDA margin (%) 23.2 23.7 25.1 26.6
EPS (`) 11.0 11.9 14.2 16.8P/E (x) 22.3 20.6 17.3 14.6
P/BV (x) 4.9 4.4 3.8 3.2RoE (%) 23.0 22.4 23.4 23.4
RoCE (%) 24.7 25.5 27.6 28.8
EV/Sales (x) 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 13.3 11.8 9.9 8.3
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUYCMP `246
Target Price `285
Investment Period 12 Months
Stock Info
Sector
Net Debt (` cr) (79)
Bloomberg Code DBCL@IN
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 75.0
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 5.5
FII / NRIs / OCBs 14.5
Indian Public / Others 5.1
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex 4.0 26.6 20.5
DBCL 2.8 24.6 3.3
Media
Market Cap (` cr) 4,502
Beta 0.4
52 Week High / Low 261/181
Avg. Daily Volume 28,051
Face Value (`) 10
BSE Sensex 20,286
Nifty 6,187
Reuters Code DBCL.BO
Amit Patil022-39357800 Ext: 6839
DB CorpPerformance Highlights
4QFY2013 Result Update | Media
May 17, 2013
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Exhibit 1:Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 % yoy 3QFY13 % qoq FY2013 FY2012 % chgNet Sales 398 353 12.7 439 (9.3) 1,592 1,451 9.7Consumption of RM 134 130 2.7 145 (7.6) 545 508 7.2(% of Sales) 33.6 36.8 33.0 34.2 35.0
Operating Expense 101 89 13.2 103 (1.3) 392 364 7.7
(% of Sales) 25.4 25.3 23.4 24.6 25.1
Staff Costs 69 61 13.4 72 (4.4) 280 243 15.1
(% of Sales) 17.4 17.3 16.5 17.6 16.7
Total Expenditure 304 281 8.4 320 (4.9) 1,216 1,115 9.1Operating Profit 94 73 29.4 119 (21.1) 376 336 11.8OPM (%) 23.6 20.6 27.2 23.6 23.2
Interest 2 2 (8.5) 2 16.8 8 9
Depreciation 15 13 15.9 15 - 58 51 14.8
Other Income 9 11 (15.8) 4 140.3 21 24 (11.3)
PBT 86 68 26.0 106 (19.0) 331 301 10.3(% of Sales) 21.6 19.3 24.2 20.8 20.7
Provision for Taxation 31 23 33.3 35 (12.9) 113 98 15.1
(% of PBT) 35.7 33.7 33.2 34.2 32.7
Minority Interest 0 0 (0) 0 (0)Recurring PAT 55 45 21.8 71 (21.9) 218 202 8.0PATM 14 13 16 14 14
Exceptional items 0 0 0 0
Reported PAT 55 45 21.9 71 (21.8) 218 202 8.0Equity shares (cr) 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.3
FDEPS (`) 3.0 2.5 21.8 3.9 (21.9) 11.9 11.0 8.0Source: Company, Angel Research
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Top-line driven by strong advertising growth
For 4QFY2013, DBCL posted healthy 12.7% yoy growth in its top-line to`398cr.
Advertising revenue grew by 13.1% yoy to `298cr, primarily driven by higher
yields. Sectors such as lifestyle, FMCG, real-estate and automobile, among others,have contributed to strong growth in advertising. National advertising which has
been subdued in last few quarters has also grown by ~12% yoy, due to increase in
government advertising. The proportion of local advertising to national advertising
is 65:35. However, upcoming state elections are expected to boost government
advertising, which may boost overall share of national advertising. Among the
other segments, the companys radio business reported a robust advertising
revenue growth of 24.2% yoy to`19cr.
Exhibit 2:Top-line growth in-line with expectations
Source: Company, Angel Research
Circulation revenue grew by robust 18.2% yoy
The company reported strong growth of 18.2% yoy in circulation revenue to `73cr
(driven by both cover price hike as well as increase in circulation). In spite of cover
price hike of ~5% yoy to`2.6, its lowest among its peers.
Exhibit 3:Strong growth in advertising revenue
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4:Price hike inches up circulation revenue
Source: Company, Angel Research
353
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398
11.3
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16.6
13.411.3
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(%)
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Top line (LHS) yoy growth (RHS)
250
271
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287
263
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318
298
30.8
14.9
16.6 6.85.4 (0.2)
2.810.9 13.1
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(`cr)
Advertising revenue (LHS) yoy growth (RHS)
45 60 40 56 45 41 49 71 55
12.8
17.3
11.5
14.012.8
10.912.9
16.1
13.9
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18.020.0
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(%)
(`cr)
Adjusted PAT (LHS) NPM (RHS)
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Gross margin and OPM expands yoy
The fall in newsprint prices and cost rationalization measures such as improving ad
edit ratio, and pagination efficiency, among others led to 326bp yoy increase in
gross margin to 66.4%. EBITDA grew by 29.3% yoy to`94cr aided by reduction inlosses of emerging editions (`5.8cr loss in 4QFY2013 vs a loss of `18.5cr in
corresponding quarter last year). Consequently, the OPM expanded by 304bp yoy
to 23.6% and net profit grew by 21.8% yoy to`55cr.
Exhibit 5:OPM expands 303bp yoy
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 6:Adjusted PAT grew by 21.8%
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 7:Reduction in losses of emerging editions(` cr) Mature
EditionsEmerging
EditionsRadio
BusinessRevenue 352 377 18.5EBITDA (incl other income) 108.5 (5.8) 6.9
EBITDA margin (%) 31 (15.4) 37Source: Company, Angel Research
Akola edition to be launched
Although DB Corp has put major launches on backburner, due to slowdown in
economy, it is still going ahead with launch of Akola edition. The management is
bullish on advertising market (especially local advertising) in Maharashtra.
Therefore, they are also considering more launches in other tier-2 cities such as
Nanded, Latur and Amravati.
63.266.4 64.5 65.8 63.2 64.4 64.8
67.0 66.4
20.6
28.1
19.8 24.1 20.6 19.7 22.8
27.2
23.6
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4Q13
(%)
EBITDA OPM
45 60 40 56 45 41 49 71 55
12.8
17.3
11.5
14.0
12.810.9
12.9
16.1
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(`cr)
Adjusted PAT (LHS) NPM (RHS)
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Investment rationale
Well-planned aggression in business edges DBCL over peers: DBCL, though adominant No. 2 player in the overall regional print space (trailing behind
Jagran Prakashan), enjoys a premium valuation to its peers - Jagran
Prakashan (flagship daily Dainik Jagran) and Hindustan Media Ventures
(flagship daily Hindustan). We attribute the reason for this trend to DBCLs
business model (which is primarily driven by ad revenue) and well thought-out
launches in new markets. We believe the companys continuous endeavor to
diversify its print business coupled with aggressive expansion into new markets
(urban towns beyond metros) backed by exhaustive market research and focus
on achieving leadership are the key factors differentiating the company from
its peers. The company has been successful in executing its expansion plans
with launches in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.Outlook and valuation
At the current market price, DBCL is trading at 14.6x FY2015E consolidated EPS of
`16.8. We maintain our Buy view on the stock with a revised target price of `285,based on 17x FY2015E EPS, benchmarking it to our print media sector valuations
(which are at ~15% premium to our Sensex target valuation multiple). The
downside risks to our estimates include 1) sharp rise in newsprint prices in INR terms,
and 2) higher-than-expected losses/increase in the breakeven period of the new
launches.
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Exhibit 8:Peer valuationCompany Reco Mcap CMP TP Upside P/E (x) EV/Sales (x) ROE(%) CAGR #
(` cr) (`) (`) (%) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E Sales PATHT Media Buy 2,317 99 117 19 11.9 10.8 0.7 0.6 11.5 11.4 7.8 13.0Jagran Buy 2,974 94 121 29 12.8 11.2 1.8 1.6 26.7 26.8 12.4 13.7
DB Corp Buy 4,500 246 285 16 17.3 14.6 2.5 2.2 23.4 23.4 9.9 18.6Source: Company, Angel Research Note:# denotes CAGR for FY2013-15
Exhibit 9:Angel vs consensus estimatesTop-line (` cr) FY2014E FY2015E EPS (`) FY2014E FY2015E
Angel estimates 1,750 1,925 Angel estimates 14.2 16.8
Consensus 1,785 1,965 Consensus 14.5 17.1
Diff (%) (1.9) (2.0) Diff (%) (1.9) (1.8)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 10:Return of DB Corp vs Sensex
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 11:One-year forward P/E band
Source: Company, Angel Research
Company Background
DB Corp is one of the largest print media companies in India that publishes 8
newspapers with 65 editions, and 199 sub editions in 4 multiple languages across
13 states in India. The companys flagship newspaper Dainik Bhaskar, Divya
Bhaskar and Saurashtra Samachar have a combined average daily readership of
~19 million, making them one of the most widely read newspaper groups in India
with presence in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab,
Chandigarh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttrakhand, Delhi, Gujarat, Maharashtra and
Jammu. The companys other noteworthy newspaper brands are Dainik Divya
Marathi, Business Bhaskar, DB Gold, DB Star and DNA on a franchise basis.
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SharePrice(`)
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Profit and loss Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EGross sales 1,058 1,260 1,451 1,593 1,750 1,925Less: Excise duty - - - - - -Net Sales 1,058 1,260 1,451 1,593 1,750 1,925
Total operating income 1,058 1,260 1,451 1,593 1,750 1,925% chg 10.4 19.1 15.2 9.8 9.9 10.0
Total Expenditure 720 862 1,115 1,216 1,310 1,412Cost of Materials 328 383 508 540 568 597
SG&A Expenses 249 279 350 392 415 456
Personnel 132 185 243 280 312 343
Others 12 16 15 5 16 16
EBITDA 338 398 336 377 440 513% chg 133.8 17.7 (15.4) 12.1 16.8 16.5
(% of Net Sales) 31.9 31.5 23.2 23.7 25.1 26.6
Depreciation & Amortisation 38 43 51 58 63 69
EBIT 300 354 286 318 377 444% chg 159.7 18.1 (19.4) 11.5 18.5 17.6
(% of Net Sales) 28.4 28.1 19.7 20.0 21.6 23.1
Interest & other Charges 25 15 9 8 8 6
Other Income 5 19 24 21 19 21
(% of PBT) 1.9 5.4 8.0 6.4 4.9 4.6
Share in profit of Associates - - - - - -
Recurring PBT 281 359 300 332 389 459% chg 258.9 27.9 (16.2) 10.5 17.2 18.1
Prior Period & Extra Exp/(Inc.) 0 2 - - - -
PBT (reported) 280 357 300 332 389 459Tax 106 98 98 113 128 152
(% of PBT) 37.6 27.4 32.7 34.2 33.0 33.0
PAT (reported) 175 259 202 219 261 308Add: Share of earn. of assoc. - - - - - -
Less: Minority interest (MI) (8) 0.3 0 - - -
PAT after MI (reported) 183 259 202 219 261 308ADJ. PAT 183 260 202 219 261 308% chg 283.5 42.2 (22.4) 8.2 19.2 18.1(% of Net Sales) 17.3 20.6 13.9 13.7 14.9 16.0
Basic EPS (`) 10.1 14.1 11.0 11.9 14.2 16.8Fully Diluted EPS (`) 10.0 14.1 11.0 11.9 14.2 16.8% chg 283.9 41.4 (21.9) 8.2 19.2 18.1
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
previous year numbers
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Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 182 183 183 183 183 183Share Capital suspense a/c 1 3 5 - - -
Reserves& Surplus 466 643 739 844 1,019 1,241
Shareholders Funds 649 829 927 1,028 1,202 1,424Minority Interest 4 0 2 1 1 1
Total Loans 321 172 180 137 127 97
Deferred Tax Liability 61 69 75 83 83 83
Other long term liablities 26 30 33 33 33
Long term provisions 3 4 - -
Total Liabilities 1,035 1,100 1,216 1,282 1,447 1,639APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 660 783 906 996 1,080 1,188
Less: Acc. Depreciation 112 149 191 250 312 381
Net Block 547 634 715 746 768 807Capital Work-in-Progress 61 41 45 55 86 95
Goodwill 39 33 33 37 37 37
Investments 21 16 46 81 106 128Long term loans and adv. 63 87 85 99 99
Current Assets 561 557 610 622 690 822
Cash 193 173 136 119 187 259
Loans & Advances 103 71 106 65 76 94
Other 266 313 367 438 427 469
Current liabilities 207 255 329 349 346 356
Net Current Assets 354 302 281 273 344 466Mis. Exp. not written off 13 10 9 6 6 6
Total Assets 1,035 1,100 1,216 1,282 1,447 1,639Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
previous year numbers
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Cash flow (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EProfit before tax 281 359 300 332 389 459
Depreciation 38 43 51 58 63 69Change in Working Cap. (14) (24) (73) (44) (17) (51)
Interest / Dividend (Net) 25 15 9 8 8 6
Direct taxes paid 101 98 98 113 128 152
Others 2 0 0 0 (12) (11)
Cash Flow from Operations 229 295 189 241 301 321(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (38) (103) (127) (99) (117) (117)
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments 3 4.22 (29.73) (34.69) (25.00) (22.00)
Cash Flow from Investing (34) (99) (157) (134) (142) (139)Issue of Equity 251 2 0.55 - - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans (242) (149) 8 (43) (10) (30)
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 42 69 80 86 86 86
Interest / Dividend (Net) 13 1 (2) (4) (4) (6)
Cash Flow from Financing (48) (216) (69) (125) (92) (110)Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 147 (20) (36) (18) 68 72
Opening Cash balances 45 193 173 136 119 187Closing Cash balances 193 173 136 119 187 259
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
previous year numbers
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Key Ratios
Y/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 24.6 17.4 22.3 20.6 17.3 14.6P/CEPS 20.2 14.9 17.8 16.2 13.9 11.9
P/BV 6.9 5.5 4.9 4.4 3.8 3.2
Dividend yield (%) 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6
EV/Sales 4.4 3.5 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.2
EV/EBITDA 13.7 11.2 13.3 11.8 9.9 8.3
EV / Total Assets 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.0 2.6
Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 10.1 14.1 11.0 11.9 14.2 16.8
EPS (fully diluted) 10.0 14.1 11.0 11.9 14.2 16.8
Cash EPS 12.2 16.5 13.8 15.1 17.6 20.5
DPS 2.0 3.2 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.0
Book Value 35.7 44.7 50.1 55.7 65.2 77.3
Dupont AnalysisEBIT margin 28.4 28.1 19.7 20.0 21.6 23.1
Tax retention ratio 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Asset turnover (x) 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5
ROIC (Post-tax) 22.4 29.1 19.2 18.7 20.9 22.5
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Leverage (x) 1.0 0.1 (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.2)
Operating ROE 45.7 31.2 19.0 18.1 18.8 18.7
Returns (%)ROCE 31.4 33.2 24.7 25.5 27.6 28.8
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 35.6 38.3 26.5 27.4 30.0 32.2
ROE 40.3 35.0 23.0 22.4 23.4 23.4
Turnover ratios (x)Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
Inventory / Sales (days) 25 21 30 30 26 26
Receivables (days) 67 70 62 63 63 63
Payables (days) 59 22 27 22 25 24
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 56 55 57 55 53 58
Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity 0.2 (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.2)
Net debt to EBITDA 0.3 (0.0) (0.0) (0.2) (0.4) (0.6)
Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 12.2 23.7 31.0 40.8 49.4 76.0
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
previous year numbers
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Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement DB Corp.
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
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