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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Quarterly highlights (Standalone)Particulars (` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 % chg (yoy) 3QFY13 % chg (qoq)Net sales 3,204 2,595 23.5 2,047 56.5EBITDA 2,156 1,975 9.1 1,390 55.0

% margin 67.3 76.1 (885)bp 67.9 (65)bp

Adj. PAT 1,871 1,643 13.9 1,292 44.8Source: Company, Angel Research

NMDC reported better-than-expected 4QFY2013 results on the back of

higher-than-expected sales volumes. We maintain Buy on the stock due to itsinexpensive valuations.Robust operational performance:NMDCs net sales increased by 23.5% yoyto`3,204cr (above our estimates of `2,659cr), mainly due to higher

volumes which grew 27.8% yoy to 8.2mn tonne. Iron ore realizations

however declined 3.5% yoy to `3,843/tonne.

EBITDA/tonne slumps on lower realizations: The companys EBITDA increasedby 9.1% yoy to `2,156cr. However, the EBITDA margin contracted 885bp

yoy to 67.3%. The EBITDA/tonne decreased by 14.6% yoy to `2,616 due to a

fall in the average realization. The company also reported an exceptional item

of `406cr relating to penalty and contribution towards the Special Purpose

Vehicle (SPV) created for Karnataka illegal mining cases. Excluding this

exceptional item, the adjusted net profit grew by 13.9% yoy to `1,871cr

(above our estimate of `1,721cr).

Outlook and valuation: Over the past five years, NMDC has traded at anaverage EV/EBITDA of 13.0x compared to its current valuation of 3.3x FY2015E

EV/EBITDA. A strong balance sheet, presence in sellers market (iron ore), low

cost of production, high-grade mines, long mine life and high dividend yield

(6.0% at CMP) make NMDC an attractive bet at the current levels. Valuing thestock at 5.0x FY2015E EV/EBITDA, we derive a fair price of `156 andrecommend Buy on the stock.Key financials (Standalone)Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ENet sales 11,261 10,704 10,461 11,892% chg (1.0) (4.9) (2.3) 13.7

Net profit 7,266 6,342 6,441 6,971% chg 11.8 (12.7) 1.6 8.2

FDEPS (`) 18.3 16.0 16.2 17.6OPM (%) 79.3 68.9 71.6 72.6

P/E (x) 6.4 7.3 7.2 6.7

P/BV (x) 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3

RoE (%) 33.3 24.4 22.1 21.4RoCE (%) 40.1 27.7 25.1 25.9

EV/Sales (x) 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.3

EV/EBITDA (x) 2.9 3.7 3.7 3.2

Source: Company, Angel Research

BUYCMP `117

Target Price `156

Investment Period 12 months

Stock Info

Sector

Net Debt (` cr) (21,025)

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 80.0

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 11.5

FII / NRIs / OCBs 4.8Indian Public / Others 3.7

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex 3.7 22.8 15.2

NMDC (15.0) (28.8) 22.8

1

19,610

5,939

NMDC.BO

NMDC@IN

46,566

1.0

203/115

605,804

Mining

Avg. Daily Volume

Market Cap (`cr)

Beta

52 Week High / Low

Face Value (`)

BSE Sensex

Nifty

Reuters Code

Bhavesh ChauhanTel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6821

[email protected]

Vinay RachhTel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6841

[email protected]

NMDCPerformance Highlights

4QFY2013 Result Update | Mining

June 3, 2013

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NMDC| 4QFY2013 Result Update

June 3, 2013 2

Exhibit 1:4QFY2013 performance (Standalone)Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 yoy % 3QFY13 qoq % FY2013 FY2012 yoy %Net Sales 3,204 2,595 23.5 2,047 56.5 10,704 11,261 (4.9)Raw Material (65) (34) - (41) 59.8 184 23 711.3% of net sales (2.0) (1.3) (2.0) 1.7 0.2

Consumption of stores & spares 100 81 24.3 64 57.0 289 257 12.6

% of net sales 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.7 2.3

Staff Cost 161 127 27.6 139 16.0 580 529 9.6

% of net sales 5.0 4.9 6.8 5.4 4.7

Other Expenditure 852 446 91.2 494 72.4 871 406 114.4

% of net sales 26.6 17.2 24.1 8.1 3.6

Total Expenditure 1,048 619 69.3 656 59.7 3,326 2,336 42.4

% of net sales 32.7 23.9 32.1 31.1 20.7

Operating Profit 2,156 1,975 9.1 1,390 55.0 7,378 8,925 (17.3)OPM% 67.3 76.1 67.9 68.9 79.3

Other Operating Income - - - - -

EBIDTA 2,156 1,975 9.1 1,390 55.0 7,378 8,925 (17.3)EBITDA margins (%) 67.3 76.1 67.9 68.9 79.3

Interest 13 1 - 13 12.2

Depreciation 39 32 20.1 34 14.2 139 130 6.4

Other Income 547 547 0.1 556 (1.6) 2,226 2,016 10.4

Exceptional Items (406.0) (51.3) - - -

Profit before Tax 2,245 2,440 (8.0) 1,913 17.4 9,465 10,811 (12.4)% of net sales 70.1 94.0 93.5 88.4 96.0

Tax 780 797 (2.1) 621 25.7 3,123 3,494 (10.6)

% of PBT 34.8 32.7 32.5 33.0 32.3

Adjusted net profit 1,871 1,643 13.9 1,292 44.8 6,342 7,266 (12.7)Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:4QFY2013 Actual vs Angel estimates(` cr) Actual Estimates Variation (%)Net sales 3,204 2,659 20.5

EBITDA 2,156 2,039 5.7

EBITDA margin (%) 67.3 76.7 (942)bp

PAT 1,871 1,721 8.7


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June 3, 2013 3

Result highlights

Volumes jump 27.8% yoy

NMDCs net sales increased by 23.5% yoy to `3,204cr (above our estimateof `2,659cr), mainly due to higher volumes, which grew 27.8% yoy to 8.2mn

tonne. Iron ore realizations however declined 3.5% yoy to `3,843/tonne.

Exhibit 3:Sales volumes increase 27.8% yoy


Exhibit 4:Realization decreased by 3.5% yoy


Exhibit 5:Net sales increased by 23.5% yoy


EBITDA/tonne decreased by 14.6% yoy

The companys EBITDA increased by 9.1% yoy to `2,156cr. However, the

EBITDA margin contracted 885bp yoy to 67.3%. EBITDA/tonne decreased by

14.6% yoy to `2,616 due to fall in average realization. Other expenditure grew by

91.2% yoy to `852cr during the quarter.

8.5

6.97.6

6.4 6.56.8

5.95.3

8.2

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

4QFY11 2QFY12 4QFY12 2QFY13 4QFY13

(%)

(mntonnes)

Sales volume % yoy (RHS)

4,434

4,0154,030

4,394

3,982

4,136

4,442

3,820 3,843

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

3,500

3,600

3,7003,800

3,900

4,000

4,100

4,200

4,300

4,400

4,500


(%)

(`/tonne)

Average realization % yoy (RHS)

3,0622,822

2,595

2,840

2,612

2,048

3,204

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13

(%)

(`cr)

Net sales (LHS) yoy change (RHS)

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June 3, 2013 4

Exhibit 6:EBITDA/tonne decreased by 14.6% yoy


Exhibit 7:EBITDA margin stood at 67.3%


Net profit declined by 10.8% yoy

The companys depreciation expenses grew by 20.1% yoy to `39cr and there was

an exceptional item of `406cr relating to penalty and contribution towards the

Special purpose Vehicle (SPV) created for Karnataka illegal mining cases.

Consequently, the adjusted net profit grew by 13.9% yoy to `1,871cr (above our

estimate of `1721cr).

Exhibit 8:Net margin stood at 58.4%


3,230 3,268 3,214

3,532

3,062

3,385 3,307

2,615 2,616

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

3040

50

60

70

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000


(%)

(`/tonne)

EBITDA/tonne % yoy (RHS)

72.7

81.0

79.5 80.1

76.1

81.0

74.1

67.9

67.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000


(%)

(`cr)

EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA margin (RHS)

55.764.7 64.1 65.9 63.3

67.164.3 63.1

58.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500


(`

cr)

Net profit (LHS) Net profit margin (RHS)

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June 3, 2013 5

Investment rationale

Iron ore capacity to expandNMDC aims to ramp up its production capacity to 48mn tonne by FY2015 (currentcapacity 32mn tonne) through increased exploration of its existing mines and

development of new mines (Deposit 11B and Deposit 13 in Bailadila and

Kumaraswany, respectively, in Karnataka). Given its past track record, we forecast

iron ore production capacity to increase to 40mn tonne by FY2015 (compared to

its target of 48mn tonne). Although sales volumes declined 3.9% yoy in FY2013,

we expect them to grow at a CAGR of 8.8% over FY2013-15E.

Exhibit 9:Iron ore capacity expansion details


Low cost producer of iron oreNMDC is one of the lowest cost producers of iron ore on account of its highly

mechanized mines, high-grade iron ore mines and logistical efficiencies. Further,

NMDC (unlike other PSUs such as SAIL and Coal India) does not face issues of

high employee costs as a percentage of net sales. Its staff costs/net sales ratio is

the lowest compared to other PSUs.

Exhibit 10:NMDCs opex & EBITDA per tonne trend


Exhibit 11:Employee costs as a percentage of sales


32

48

7

7 2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Current Bai ladi la 11/B Kurumaswamy Dep. 10, 11/A Total

(mntonnes)

1114 16

36

6663

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

FY2010 FY2011 FY2012

(US$/tonne)

Opex/tonne EBITDA/tonne

6.74.3 4.7

13.6

18.0 17.4

37.3 37.740.5

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

FY2010 FY2011 FY2012

(%)

NMDC SAIL Coal India

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June 3, 2013 6

Seeking to diversify into steel making

The Management intends to diversify its operations by moving downstream

through establishing steel plants and pellet plants. Accordingly, the company aims

to build an integrated 3mn tonne steel plant in Jagdalpur, Chhattisgarh. Land

acquisition for the same is nearly complete, which gives comfort as land

acquisition has been a major bottleneck to greenfield projects in recent times.

However, we believe the steel project is not likely to be value accretive to NMDC in

the initial period of operations.

Exhibit 12:Chhattisgarh steel project statusCapacity 3mn tonne per year

Capex `15,525cr

Land Total land required: 1,934 acres. Total land acquired: 1,932 acres.

Balance land is under allotment process.Date ofcompletion

42 months from Zero date i.e., receipt of all statutoryclearance/approvals and placement of orders.Targeted completion period FY2015


Outlook and valuation

Over the past five years, NMDC has traded at an average EV/EBITDA of 13.0x,

compared to its current valuation of 3.3x FY2015E EV/EBITDA. A strong balance

sheet, presence in sellers market (iron ore), low cost of production, high-grade

mines and long mine life make NMDC an attractive bet at the current levels.Valuing the stock at 5.0x FY2015E EV/EBITDA, we derive a fair price of `156 andrecommend Buy on the stock.Exhibit 13:Key assumptions

FY2014E FY2015ESales volume (mn tonne) 28 31

Average realization (US$/tonne) 3,736 3,836

Source: Angel Research

Exhibit 14:EPS Angel forecast vs consensusYear (`) Angel forecast Bloomberg consensus Variation (%)FY2014E 16.2 16.8 (3.3)

FY2015E 17.6 17.9 (1.8)

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

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June 3, 2013 7

Exhibit 15:EV/EBITDA band


Exhibit 16:P/E band


Exhibit 17:P/BV band


0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Apr-09 Dec-09 Aug-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13

(`

cr)

5x 8x 11x 17x 14x

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


(`)

9x 14x 19x 24x

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700


(`)

2.0x 4.0x 6.0x 8.0x

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June 3, 2013 8

Exhibit 18: Recommendation summary

Companies CMP Target Reco. Mcap Upside P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)(`) price (`) (` cr) (%) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

Sesa Goa 161 - Neutral 13,753 - 5.4 5.4 0.7 0.6 14.0 11.6 14.3 12.5 5.2 5.5NMDC 117 156 Buy 46,566 33 7.2 6.7 1.5 1.3 3.7 3.2 22.1 21.4 25.1 25.9Coal India 326 343 Accum. 202,344 5 11.2 10.8 3.2 2.7 5.5 5.2 37.4 34.6 22.4 20.3

MOIL 199 248 Buy 3,410 24 7.4 6.9 1.1 1.0 2.0 1.4 15.4 14.7 14.5 13.7


Company background

Incorporated in November 1958, government-owned NMDC is Indias largest iron

ore producer with a capacity of 36mn tonne. The company operates high-grade

iron ore mines at Kirandul and Bacheli in Chhattisgarh and Donimalai in

Karnataka. The average mine life of NMDC is 38 years currently.

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June 3, 2013 9

Profit & loss statement (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 6,239 11,369 11,261 10,704 10,461 11,892Other operating income - - - - - -Total operating income 6,239 11,369 11,261 10,704 10,461 11,892% chg (17.5) 82.2 (1.0) (4.9) (2.3) 13.7

Total Expenditure 1,817 2,722 2,336 3,326 2,972 3,264

Net Raw Materials 211 123 234 105 129 157

Personnel 420 492 529 580 603 627

Other 1,186 2,107 1,573 2,642 2,240 2,480

EBITDA 4,422 8,646 8,925 7,378 7,489 8,628% chg (24.2) 95.5 3.2 (17.3) 1.5 15.2

(% of Net Sales) 70.9 76.1 79.3 68.9 71.6 72.6

Depreciation & Amort. 73 125 130 139 145 153

EBIT 4,349 8,521 8,794 7,239 7,344 8,475% chg (24.6) 95.9 3.2 (17.7) 1.4 15.4

(% of Net Sales) 69.7 75.0 78.1 67.6 70.2 71.3

Interest & other Charges - - - - - -

Other Income 862 1,206 2,016 2,226 2,270 1,930

Recurring PBT 5,211 9,727 10,811 9,465 9,614 10,405% chg (21.6) 86.7 11.1 (12.4) 1.6 8.2

Extraordinary Inc/(Exp.) - - (513.0) - - -

PBT (reported) 5,211 9,727 10,760 9,465 9,614 10,405Tax 1,760 3,228 3,494 3,123 3,173 3,434

(% of PBT) 33.8 33.2 32.5 33.0 33.0 33.0

PAT (reported) 3,451 6,499 7,266 6,342 6,441 6,971ADJ. PAT 3,451 6,499 7,266 6,342 6,441 6,971% chg (21.1) 88.3 11.8 (12.7) 1.6 8.2

(% of Net Sales) 55.3 57.2 64.5 59.2 61.6 58.6

Basic EPS (`) 8.7 16.4 18.3 16.0 16.2 17.6Fully Diluted EPS ( ) 8.7 16.4 18.3 16.0 16.2 17.6% chg (21.1) 88.3 11.8 (12.7) 1.6 8.2

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June 3, 2013 10

Balance sheet (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 396 396 396 396 396 396Reserves& Surplus 13,876 18,818 24,010 27,105 30,299 34,023

Shareholders Funds 14,272 19,215 24,406 27,501 30,696 34,420Total Loans - - - - - -

Deferred Tax Liability 85 103 100 100 100 100

Other Long term Liabilties 22 23 23 23 23

Long Term Provisions 15 13 13 13 13

Total Liabilities 14,357 19,354 24,543 27,638 30,833 34,557APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 1,771 2,273 2,388 3,388 3,888 4,388

Less: Acc. Depreciation 984 (1,174) (1,199) (1,338) (1,483) (1,636)

Net Block 787 1,099 1,189 2,050 2,405 2,752Capital Work-in-Progress 561 568 1,494 4,894 8,394 11,894

Goodwill - - - - - -

Investments 76 136 248 248 248 248Long Term Loans and Adv. - 199 512 512 512 512

Other non- current assets - 11 7 7 7 7

Current Assets 14,264 19,086 23,199 22,074 21,348 21,279Cash 12,855 17,228 20,265 19,163 18,553 18,448

Loans & Advances 683 557 1,048 1,048 1,048 1,048

Other 726 1,300 1,886 1,864 1,747 1,783

Current liabilities 1,348 1,744 2,105 2,147 2,081 2,135Net Current Assets 12,916 17,342 21,094 19,927 19,267 19,144Mis. Exp. not written off 17 - - - - -

Total Assets 14,357 19,354 24,543 27,638 30,833 34,557

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June 3, 2013 11

Cash flow statement (Standalone)Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EProfit before tax 5,207 9,726 10,760 9,465 9,614 10,405

Depreciation 73 122 184 139 145 153Change in Working Capital 926 (525) (889) 64 51 18

Others (832) (1,144) (1,962) - - -

Direct taxes paid (1,770) (3,318) (3,502) (3,123) (3,173) (3,434)

Cash Flow from Operations 3,604 4,862 4,595 6,545 6,638 7,142Inc./ (Dec.) in Fixed Assets (422) (456) (1,211) (4,400) (4,000) (4,000)

Other income 828 (3,961) 472 - - -

Cash Flow from Investing 407 (4,417) (739) (4,400) (4,000) (4,000)Issue of Equity - - - - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans - - - - - -

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (895) (994) (1,911) (3,247) (3,247) (3,247)

Others - (0) (0.1) - - -

Cash Flow from Financing (895) (994) (1,911) (3,247) (3,247) (3,247)Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 3,115 (550) 1,945 (1,102) (609) (105)

Opening Cash balances 9,740 1,648 1,153 3,098 19,163 18,553Closing Cash balances 12,855 1,153 3,098 19,163 18,553 18,448

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June 3, 2013 12

Key ratios

Y/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 13.4 7.1 6.4 7.3 7.2 6.7P/CEPS 13.2 7.0 6.3 7.2 7.0 6.5

P/BV 3.3 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3

Dividend yield (%) 1.5 1.8 2.7 6.0 6.0 6.0

EV/Sales 5.4 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.3

EV/EBITDA 7.6 3.4 2.9 3.7 3.7 3.2

EV / Total Assets 2.3 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8

Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 8.7 16.4 18.3 16.0 16.2 17.6

EPS (fully diluted) 8.7 16.4 18.3 16.0 16.2 17.6

Cash EPS 8.9 16.7 18.7 16.3 16.6 18.0

DPS 1.7 2.2 3.2 7.0 7.0 7.0

Book Value 36.0 48.5 61.6 69.4 77.4 86.8

Dupont AnalysisEBIT margin 69.7 75.0 78.1 67.6 70.2 71.3

Tax retention ratio (%) 66.2 66.8 67.7 67.0 67.0 67.0

Asset turnover (x) 3.8 6.7 3.7 1.7 1.0 0.9

ROIC (Post-tax) 174.0 333.3 197.7 79.1 48.6 40.7

Cost of Debt (Post Tax)

Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 33.4 50.6 40.1 27.7 25.1 25.9

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 347.9 744.9 444.2 246.6 210.7 222.9

ROE 26.6 38.8 33.3 24.4 22.1 21.4

Turnover ratios (x)Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 3.6 5.6 4.8 3.7 2.9 2.9

Inventory / Sales (days) 60 48 68 65 60 50

Receivables (days) 43 15 20 20 20 20

Payables (days) 91 62 68 68 68 68

WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 27 3 15 27 26 22

Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity (0.9) (0.9) (0.8) (0.7) (0.6) (0.5)

Net debt to EBITDA (2.9) (2.0) (2.3) (2.6) (2.5) (2.2)Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) - - - - - -

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Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

DISCLAIMERThis document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment

decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make

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risks of such an investment.

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Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and

trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's

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Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment bankingor other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or

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or in connection with the use of this information.

Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to thelatest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates mayhave investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

Disclosure of Interest Statement NMDC

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below`

1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors

nmdc 4q fy 2013

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